A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes, ANZ sees 3 hikes this year, Westpac sees spending bite, service sector struggling, fuel update, swaps rise, NZX falls, NZD hovers, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

"RATES ARE GOING TO RISE"
Economists at ANZ now say they see three consecutive +25 bp hikes in July, September and October, taking the OCR to 3%. "Essentially, we see the RBNZ becoming too uncomfortable with an OCR in stimulatory territory as inflation inevitably rises, concluding the risks of going too late outweigh the risks of hiking too soon." That would take the OCR to 3.0%. But we should also note that financial markets see it rising further than ANZ, to 4.0% by December 2027. More here. ANZ is the laggard in understanding what seems to lie ahead. ASB, BNZ and Westpac has already seen the trends.

MORE FROM THE POCKET, LESS IN THE TANK
Westpac is the next major to release details of what it sees in the card transaction of its customers. While mounting cost of living pressures put the breaks on spending over the past month, across the country retails spending remains well up on the levels we saw this time last year. However, a lot of that is due to very much higher fuel prices.

LESS COST PRESSURE ON A MAJOR SUPERMARKET
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in March was slightly lower than in February, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average +2.1% increase in what suppliers charged in March 2026, compared with a year earlier.

REALLY STRUGGLING
The services sector contracted in March and for a third consecutive time and to a ten month low, according to the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). This is in marked contrast to the expanding factory PMI. Particularly worrisome was the slump in new orders, and the services downturn is probably large enough to more than cancel out the PMI and drag the economy back into contraction, BNZ suggested

BRENAN THINKS 2% SHOULD STILL BY THE INFLATION TARGET
‘The world has definitely changed but we have seen the benefits over time of low and stable inflation’: RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stands by the RBNZ's 2% midpoint inflation target. We will get a first look at the early impact of the Persian Gulf crisis on inflation in the March Selected Prices data due on Friday, and the full March quarter CPI the following Tuesday.

QUIZ UPDATED
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

LIFER RISES TO THE TOP
Fonterra has appointed Richard Allen as its new CEO, as Miles Hurrell's replacement at the $26 bln dairy co-operative.

NZX50 FADES FURTHER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.6% so far today. Enthusiasm is still leaking away as the session develops although it is still heading for a +0.5% weekly rise. But is down -2.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +7.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another -2.4% so far today. SkyTV, Tower, Fletcher and Chorus advance while a2 Milk, Summerset, Ryman and Serko drive the decline

LOGISTICS A PROBLEM AGAIN
a2 Milk has cut its revenue and profit forecasts after "rapidly evolving" supply-chain problems flowing from the Middle East conflict.

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FUEL UPDATE
This is the latest update on the fuel situation from MBIE. There will be another update released on Wednesday.

SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are likely to have risen further after last week's turns higher, perhaps adding another +5 bps today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.54% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 5.03%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +8 bps at 2.49% today and we make that a 29 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78%, up +4 bps from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate unchanged at 4.70%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at 4.32%.

EQUITIES LOWER
The local equity market has fallen -1.6% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Monday down -1.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong down -1.2% and Shanghai has opened down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade up +0.6%. The S&P500 futures market is suggesting Wall Street will open down -0.2%.

OIL PRICES JUMP BACK UP
American oil prices have risen +US$8 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now at US$105/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$7 at US$102/bbl.

CARBON MARKET QUIET
There has been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $45/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is soft at US$4720/oz, down -US$28 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$1.50 USc at just on US$74/oz.

NZD HOVERS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this morning against the USD, now just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.8 and down -10 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,192 and down a mere -0.1%% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.9%. We should also not that the Trump family crypto token has fallen consistently since its launch in September 2025 at US$0.23. It is now down to under US$0.08, and investors and supporters are starting to realise that they are the victim of nothing more than a shabby grift.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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