A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; Auckland grows with fewer losses to regions, Christchurch grows fast, dairy prices fall, more lease offers, more EHGs, swaps ease, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Bank of Baroda increased home loan rates today. Update: ANZ has raised most fixed rates. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank raised all its rates from6 months and longer. Bank of Baroda raised too. Update: ANZ has raised all its TD rates for terms 18 months and longer. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

AUCKLAND KEEPS ON GROWING
StatsNZ said today that Auckland's population has doubled since the early 1980's and is now at 1.82 mln. They say it could reach 2 mln in 2033. Currently 2 in 5 Aucklanders were born overseas and immigration is the main driver of the Queen City's population. Migration levels were low in 2025 however, with just +9500 arriving (net) in the year from overseas, and just -3200 leaving for other parts of New Zealand, the lowest shift away internally in at least ten years.

REGIONAL TRENDS
The Auckland population data was part of a broader update of regional populations. In 2025 Auckland's population rose +17,700, Hamilton was up +2,600, Tauranga was up +170, Napier/Hastings was down -170 people, Wellington (from the Kapiti Coast to Wellington City) was down -130, Christchurch and its two districts grew +6,890, Queenstown/Wanaka grew +900, and Dunedin decreased by -40 people.

LOWER PRICES WITH HIGHER NZD
The overnight dairy Pulse auction brought the expected lower prices, with WMP down -1.8% from the prior week's full auction event, SMP down -1.9%, and butter down -3.7%. These shifts are in USD, and with the rising NZD they will be deeper. In NZD, WMP fell -5.1%, SMP fell -5.2% and butter fell -7.0% from the prior full auction a week ago.

LIQUIDITY RISKS IGNORED
The FMA has been looking at how KiwiSaver managers have been incorporating "private assets" into members funds. Private assets include private equity, private debt, venture capital, private real estate, private infrastructure, natural resources and other non-exchange traded assets. The regulator sees this as part of an international trend, as a way to get better returns. They seem comfortable about the trend, saying "We want to see KiwiSaver providers exploring private asset investment opportunities while ensuring that risks are carefully managed, particularly around valuation, frequency of investment review, and conflicts of interest.” Here is their "full report". Striking however, is the lack of attention to liquidity risks - these only get one minor oblique reference in the report.

MORE SPACE AVAILABLE
Our tracking of commercial lease listings shows another modest rise last week, but to the highest level since we started tracking it (weekly) exactly two years ago. But if you exclude Christchurch and Queenstown, the jump would have been notable. In the latest week we have seen more property come up for lease in most parts of Auckland (except South Auckland), and similar jumps in Hamilton, Wellington, and Nelson.

MORE HOUSING EMERGENCIES
The number, cost and duration of emergency housing grants are rising, according to the March 2025 MSD data. March was the highest month for the number of these grants approved (1581) since November 2024, and there are more providers lining up to supply that accommodation (137) who got an average of $26,756 each under this program. Those needing this support stay an average of 12 weeks although most (56%) are in for seven weeks or less.

DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

COMING SOON
We expect to be able to report the March REINZ results tomorrow. Meanwhile, one Auckland Harcourts agency says enquiry levels have dropped approximately -20% in April, open home attendance is down around -10%, apartment market conditions have softened further, there have been an increase in conditional deals falling over compared to last month, there are fewer people relocating to Australia and there are signs of Kiwi families returning from overseas.

NZX50 HOLDS EARLY GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. It is heading for a -1.3% weekly dip. It is down -1.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +8.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.3% so far today. Precinct, Heartland, EBOS, and Kathmandu lead the index gainers while Oceania, SkyCity casino, Sanford, and Vulcan Steel are the big decliners.

FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
this is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status:

BIG JUMP. BUT DOES IT LAST?
There was a big surprise out of Japan today. Machinery orders rose +13.6% in February from January, to be +24.7% higher than year-ago levels. This was after January orders were up +13.7%. The February year-on-year gain was three time higher than what was expected. (Japan has been drinking some Taiwan juice.) But a lot has happened since. Japanese manufacturers' confidence posted its biggest month-on-month drop in ​more than three years in April, dampened by surging oil prices and supply-chain disruptions caused ‌by the Middle East conflict, the Reuters Tankan poll showed.

THE RUSH TO AUSTRALIA FADES
Australia's long term permanent immigrant arrivals bounced back strongly in February from January to +14,100 for the month but it was still -4.4% lower than for February 2025 and -14% lower than February 2024. For the year to February, permanent arrivals totaled +141,660, down more than -10% from a year ago and the least since September 2023.

SWAP RATES EASE BACK AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are likely to have eased lower again today after yesterday's dip, perhaps by another -3 bps today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.57% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -a bp at 4.93%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.78%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -5 bps at 2.41% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66%, down -4 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -9 bps at 4.67%. The UST 10yr yield is down another -4 bps at 4.24%.

EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market has risen +0.5% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +0.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong up +0.8% and Shanghai has opened up +0.3%. Singapore is up +0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade up +1.2% for the S&P500.

OIL PRICES DIP AGAIN, STILL VERY HIGH
American oil prices have fallen -US$5.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$3 at US$95/bbl.

CARBON MARKET STILL VERY QUIET
There have been a few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has eased very slightly to $45.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is firm at US$4822/oz, up another +US$51 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$3.50 USc at just on US$80/oz.

NZD RISES AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59 USc as the greenback fades fast. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.4 and up +30 bps from yesterday, all driven by the falling USD.

BITCOIN STEADIES
The bitcoin price is now at US$74,365 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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