Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society (NBS) raised some fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ICBC and NBS raised TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
JUMBLED JOBS PICTURE
The March BNZ-Seek update says job ads eased -0.7% from February in seasonally adjusted terms. "While changes in economic indicators are quickly being attributed to the Middle East conflict, we are cautious to jump to any strong conclusions here. It is possible the fall in ads has been brought about by the war and rise in uncertainty, leading some firms to put hiring plans on hold. It is also possible that it is too early to see these impacts, and March is just typical monthly variation."
THEY SAY 'CREDIT', WE SAY 'DEBT' - MORE AVAILABILITY, LESS DEMAND
The RBNZ surveys banks on "credit conditions" every six months. The results for the March 2026 survey indicates credit availability has increased over the past six months for residential mortgages, commercial property and rural lending. Test rates for residential mortgage affordability assessments fell slightly over the period and are now generally between 6.5% and 7.0%. The easing in LVR restrictions in December 2025 also supported mortgage credit availability. Credit availability remained unchanged for SMEs and large corporates, and declined slightly for consumer lending. Credit availability is expected to increase over the next six months for rural, commercial property and large corporate lending. It is expected to remain unchanged over the next six months for residential mortgages, consumer and SME lending. But demand for more debt may not be strong. The survey reports for the business and household sectors, banks are forecasting slightly below-average credit growth. Banks noted the risk that the conflict in the Middle East could result in lower credit growth than projected. They see little credit growth from the rural sector over the coming year because of strong sector incomes and the recent capital payout from the sale of Fonterra’s consumer brands.
AUCKLAND COUNCIL DOWNGRADED
Moody's Ratings has revised the outlook on Auckland Council to negative from stable. But it has affirmed its core ratings at Aa2. "We could downgrade the Council's ratings if there are signs of weaker extraordinary support from the Crown to deliver its large infrastructure program than currently assumed; and/or a persistently higher debt burden than our current expectation; and/or in case of a reduction in rate-setting powers, without access to alternative revenue sources. Given the negative outlook on the ratings, an upgrade is unlikely in the near term."
MODEST FINE FOR CRIMINAL AML BREACHES
A Hamilton law firm has been fined $60,000 for Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Act offences, following an investigation by the Department of Internal Affairs. Foster & Milroy ended up pleading guilty to criminal breaches of the Act, including failures to undertake a compliant risk assessment, to establish, implement, or maintain an AML/CFT program, and to maintain proper records, and wilfully obstructing an AML/CFT supervisor in the exercise of its powers. The DIA said the offending in this case was serious as it was "prolonged, intentional and systemic".
FARM PAY GROWTH SLOWS
Farm worker pay growth has levelled off in the last few years, after a post-pandemic period of rapid growth, a new report shows. The 2026 Federated Farmers-Rabobank Farm Remuneration Report shows the average salary for a farm worker increased by $1,367 to $72,778, or a average rise of 3% across 13 job positions.
NZ FIRST SLUSH FUND FOR REGIONAL AIRINE SURVIVAL
The Government is deepening state capitalism, not only via SOEs, but 'loans' to private companies "to survive the oil crisis". These are 'loans' that probably have little chance of being repaid. Three more regional airlines will receive Regional Infrastructure Fund loans to help support regional air routes and safeguard essential air services, Interestingly, the current ministers involved in this decision are invoking "promoting social wellbeing" as core reason for the funding. The three airlines receiving funding this $30 mln funding are: Air Chathams – $17.2 mln to refinance debt. The airline connects Auckland, Whakatāne, Whanganui, Kāpiti, Wellington, Christchurch, Chatham Islands and Pitt Island; Sounds Air – $4.5 mln to upgrade its fleet and refinance debt. The airline connects Wellington, Picton, Kāpiti, Blenheim and Nelson; and Island Air – $252,000 for fleet maintenance. The airline connects Tauranga and Motiti Island.
NZX50 LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% so far today. It is heading for a -0.3% weekly dip. It is down -3.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +7.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down- 0.6% so far today. Ryman, Kathmandu, SkyTV, and Chorus lead Friday’s gainers as Gentrack, Fletchers, Scales, and AirNZ top a heavy wave of decliners.
HIGHER PRICES & MORE TAXES
We are all aware of the sharp rise in petrol and diesel prices. Our monitoring shows that here, but it also shows the equally sudden shrinkage in discounting - and it shows how sharply the Government is collecting increased taxes (mainly extra GST) from this spike. During the pandemic stress, action was taken to maintain affordability but that now seems much less likely. The charts clearly show the different approaches taken between the two 'emergencies'.
MINIMAL INFLATION PRESSURE
Interestingly, even though they face the same pressures from importing fuel, Japan seems to have avoided an inflation spike in March. It came in there at 1.5%, little different to their February rate (1.3%) or the expected rate (1.5%). These are still at near 4 year lows.
SWAP RATES STEADY
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bps at 2.59% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 5.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +5 bps at 2.44% today and its highest since July 1997. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.73%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up another +5 bps at 4.72%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from this time yesterday at 4.33%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market has erased earlier losses in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday up +0.3% in its initial trade. Hong Kong down -0.5% and Shanghai has opened down -0.5%. Singapore has fallen by -0.8% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade the S&P500 down -0.4% in a reversal of the Wednesday relief rally.
OIL PRICES RISE AGAIN
American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same +US$1.50 at just on US$105.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been only a few and tiny trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
'KEEP THE ETS AUCTION SETTINGS, FOR NOW AT LEAST'
The Climate Change Commission’s routine annual advice on NZ ETS auction settings, released today, recommends keeping auction volumes and price controls the same for now to limit the risk of further price instability and support confidence in the NZ ETS.
GOLD DIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4674/oz, down another -US$26 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$75/oz and up +US$3.
NZD FALLS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps against the USD, now just on 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62 and down -40 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN HOLDS HIGH
The bitcoin price is now at US$78,188 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.1%.
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23 Comments
New Stadium - Go the Crusaders!
Why do we need to bail out regional airlines? If they are essential they could put up their price and people would pay that price. If they aren’t essential then they aren’t any more special than any other business suffering from high oil prices.
It is an interesting debate. Of course if we dont ensure air connectivity what would be the cost of providing the required services locally....or do we abandon the provision?
They could take the bus.
Lol..Chatham Islanders may take issue with that.
A lot of those flights are within the main islands AFAIK. But yeah if you live in the Chatham’s then you just need to pay the extra just like everyone else.
Bring back the Holm & Co line. Just make sure there are no German raiders at sea. Post in memory of the ill fated SS Holmwood which our family by sheer chance, didn’t have a passenger on board.
"The island has a school, a wharf, a church and a grass landing strip for light planes.[11]"
People from Picton can take the ferry, oh wait, is it running this week?
Where do you live Jimbo? Not the Chatham Islands i guess.
Critical infrastructure/service. It is already expensive to use those regional carriers.
Do you ask the same question for health services, internet/cellphone connectivity, electricity reticulation?
Or should the population relocate to Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch? Make provision of lots of critical services/infrastructure so much more efficient.
And lose the increased economic zone the Chathams provides.....of course we could always build and staff a full service hospital etc on the islands.
It’s going to cost more to get food to the big cities too. Should that also be subsidised?
At some stage you’ve got to accept that you chose to live somewhere highly dependent on fossil fuel and if it increases in price that’s your problem. Just like people that choose to live on the coast shouldn’t expect global warming bailouts.
Yes fossil fuels are critical...especially with the way we have structured our economy....but as stated what are you going to do....abandon those areas that cannot survive sans FF or seek alternatives?...id suggest you need to change the requirement, because ultimately no area can survive sans FF under the current system.
The average Japanese consumer would use very little fossil fuel directly wouldn’t they? So it would be the secondary effects that would cause inflation there, freight etc. Probably take a few months for that to come through.
Why would you assume they use little?
https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/ranking/imports-of-fossil-fuel
They have a load of industry and exports. But that inflation would take a while to get through to the consumer. The average household probably doesn’t even have a car, most NZ ones have two+
Not everyone in Japan lives in Shinjuku
They have more people living in Shinjuku than we do
They have about 25% of their population living in Tokyo, you don’t need a car there. Add in other big cities it’s probably more than 50% have access to really good public transport. Compare that to NZ…
Look at the link...they import (and therefore use) shitloads
If they import it then export it in another form, their average consumer hasn’t touched it. And inflation is measured by the average consumer.
According to AI they drive about half the kms we do. And in much newer, smaller, fuel efficient cars no doubt.
And of course cars are the only source of FF consumption
Aussie has 5x the number of public servants per capita than China. An Aussie think tank has pushed back implying that “taxpayer-funded jobs” are not necessarily the same as ‘non-market’ sector jobs.
https://percapita.org.au/australias-public-sector-is-far-smaller-than-d…
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