Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Finance Direct has trimmed many of its term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
COMPOUNDING WORRY
Consumer sentiment has crashed. Yesterday we noted the dive in business sentiment. Today consumers are feeling just as gun-shy. The one month fall in sentiment is very much like what happened during the pandemic. In two months this dive is 20 points. It is even a sharper negative for those thinking it is a good time to buy a major household appliance. And inflation expectations (2-years ahead) jumped to 6.6%.
ENTHUSIASTIC CONSENTING
There were 37,813 new dwellings consented in the year ended March, up +11% compared with the year ended March 2025, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. In March alone, the levels remained high at 3677, rising +16% from February to their most since September 2025. But the value of these consents were up +8% on a per m2 basis. There is no way dwelling values are rising +8% pa anywhere. At some point there will be a reckoning.
MORE AVAILABLE AT A LOWER PRICE
Housing stock for sale in April is at a 12-year high and asking prices are declining on Realestate.co.nz as the market heads into winter.
HOUSING STALL
Cotality sees a sluggish housing market for the rest of 2026. NZ's median dwelling value inched up 0.1% in April, but Auckland and Wellington values still going backwards they say.
CONSENTED, YES. BUILT? IN QUESTION NOW
The April log market report shows that supply and demand for logs is being suppressed by uncertainties around how international log markets will react to higher fuel costs, and about the viability of local construction projects. They point out that the time to start construction on consented projects is blowing out, and a higher proportion are unlikely to be built - because new higher costs may result in a finished building costing more than it is worth.
GOOD NON-RES CONSENT LEVELS
Fortunately, non-residential building consents were quite good in March, bolstered by good levels of social building, plus some good new hotel consents. But office building was very weak.
HOW THE TRUMP WAR TAX AFFECTS US - BIGGLY
Click on this link to see what a major shipping company will surcharge cargoes to/from New Zealand. That will be real cost pain. There is no way anyone can just absorb increases of this magnitude.
NZX50 FIRMER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. And it is heading for a +0.6% weekly rise. It is down -4.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +6.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.6% so far today. Ryman, Kathmandu, Chorus and Fletcher lead the NZX50 gains as market ends the week higher. But Vista Group, SkyCity casino, Tourism Holdings and Sky TV are the main ones to weigh on the result.
PROFITS STAY HIGH
ANZ's NZ profit dipped in its six months to March to 1% less than last year's record level. Their NZ CEO is wary of 'the combination of inflation, interest rates & fuel costs' in the second half.
RETAIL PAIN
Retailer Briscoes is struggling to hold its revenue line with sales up only 1.4% in the March quarter from the same quarter a year ago, clearly far less than inflation. They say the sudden shift in sentiment had a noticeable impact across the broader retail sector during the latter part of the quarter, them included. And people are spending (losing) a lot less at casinos these days, something SkyCity finds "most pronounced" in their Auckland and Adelaide gambling dens
BI-PARTISAN SUCCESS
The Government is trumpeting the success of the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement which has now been running two years - and was negotiated and signed by Labour and Damien O'Connor. In the year to December under this deal, total goods exports were up +35% to $6.7 bln and services exports were up +11% to $2 bln. Big export gains to the EU included sheep meats up +50%, dairy products up +58%, industrial exports up 61%, and horticulture up +29% (of which Kiwifruit sold $1.2 bln.) These outcomes will make an interesting benchmark for National's India FTA. At present, India does not rank in our top 20 trading partners.
SWAP RATES SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates have likely turned lower today, perhaps down as much as -5 bps, and that follows Aussie shifts. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 2.63% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is back down -6 bps at 5.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.51% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.76%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +3 bps at 4.73%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.39%.
EQUITIES FIRM
The local equity market is up +0.3% in Friday day trade so far. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.7% at its Friday open. Hong Kong and Shanghai are on their May Day holiday today. It is a holiday in Singapore too. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +1.0% on those strong tech results.
OIL PRICES RISE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE US
American oil prices have risen +US$9 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$108.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 at just on US$112/bbl. US pump prices have jumped today.
CARBON PRICE RISES
There has been active again today on the secondary market, and the price has risen under this demand pressure now at $52.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4618/oz, up +US$56 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$74/oz and up +US$1.50/oz.
NZD RISES STRONGLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +80 bps against the USD, now just on 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.3 and up +50 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,533 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.
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30 Comments
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4618/oz, up +US$56 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$74/oz and up +US$1.50/oz.
Gold-related banter has been low in my circles. However, it may surprise people that gold has been the U.S. largest export for 4 out of the last 5 months. Historically, U.S. top exports tend to be aircraft, refined petroleum, pharmaceuticals, chips, or related products, not gold.
And while people get giddy at the pick-and-shovel AI stock prices, I pointed out to a colleague that Newmont Mining is up 170% in the past 12 months. You would have been unlikely to hear that from your IFA or read about it in Granny.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2026/04/07/iran-tariffs-gaza-uk…
I remember many people investing in gold mining last time gold went up. The smart money gets in early, the fools get in late.
Sums me up that does, unfortunately. Either a fool that rushed in, what angels, or a lost soul that hesitated.
Could you be a bit more specific? What do you mean by "the last time gold went up"?
Newmont's biggest share price move was in the 80s. And long after the 70s gold price bonanza.
The smart money gets in early, the fools get in late.
Sums up NZ residential property Ponzi perfectly, I would add the smartest money got out late 2021
Smart money needs bag holders.
Sums up NZ residential property Ponzi perfectly, I would add the smartest money got out late 2021
The Ponzi goes up; Fonterra stocks; the All Blacks brand valuation; apple exports.
We all pat ourselves on the back and stroke our confirmation biases.
The gold price and Newmont share price rise and we all start screaming about speculative bubbles.
It's a funny world.
Reality check: some did, some didnt, many owner-occupiers simply lived in houses and carried on
These guys will all be ok,
But there is another cohort that leveraged their existing equity to join the Ponzi by buying a rental. They are still in.
How common was Ma and Pa residential investment?
Many Property Investors are sweating bullets, at the absolutely worst timed, speculative punt, into the NZ Property bubble in history..... perhaps only surpassed by Tulipmania;
Is this true WellyPI?
Like most things, some timed it poorly, some didnt, some have low debt and solid rents, some are stressed. Blanket statements are easy though.
Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund To Stop Funding LIV Golf After 2026 Season
Since launching in 2022 as a challenger to the PGA Tour, the circuit has reportedly burned through more than $5 billion while failing to gain meaningful U.S. viewership...
Yes, residential construction is toast. It might still stack up if developers / builders can acquire suitable sites at bargain basement prices, for low to medium density development.
Even without the war, I thought the uplift in consents was a bit of an illusion.
The eternal optimism of most builders and developers is both a necessity as well as a failing.
You wouldn’t start any new build without being overly optimistic. Cause nine times out of ten it’ll turn to shit at some point.
I don’t get how these developments stack up (and didn’t even in the boom). Good sized section with existing house near us still go for $1.5 mil, and I imagine at least $400k per unit to build, then another 50k at least in holding and selling costs. So if you manage to get 6 on a section, you’re looking at $4.2 mil cost. If you sell each at $0.7 mil, there is no profit. If you can’t sell, you’re going backwards.
Hmmm this is the more useful discussion tbh. Not “crash vs boom”, just whether current land + build + finance costs leave enough margin to justify building
Good comment.
I guess during the boom there were people who had bought the property when it was much cheaper, so in those cases land as an input cost for development was quite low.
Also, when prices are booming, you see a boom loop happening. ie. developers are more enticed to develop if they are confident prices will be 25-30% higher in two years.
This is a reason that the 'supply-side myth' of upzoning everywhere falls over. Residential development is not a charity. It's a money making business. If prices are more stable (not increasing much), there is less incentive for developers to develop.
Now, let's take your example. Let's say it's a 700 square metre section with an old house on it. A developer buys it for $1.5 million. So the land input cost is $1.5 million.
Let's say the developer is interested in building 6 townhouses. Let's assume a communal, uncovered parking area, so no garages. And let's assume each of the townhouses is 70 square metres.
Rough back of the envelope follows:
- Land cost: $1,500,000
- Build cost: $1,500,000 (possibly too low now with recent cost inflation)
- Site works and engineering: $300,000 (possibly but too low, but anyhoo)
- Development contributions: $200,000
- Marketing / sales, contingency, holdings costs: $200,000
Total costs: $3,700,000
Typically, a developer will be wanting a 20-30% profit margin. Let's say 25%.
that brings us to say $4,600,000
Divide that by 6 units = $766,000
then we need to add 15% GST to sales price = $880,000
Not sure where you live but this looks probably $100K - $150K too high per unit
"HOW THE TRUMP WAR TAX AFFECTS US - BIGGLY
Click on this link to see what a major shipping company will surcharge cargoes to/from New Zealand. That will be real cost pain. There is no way anyone can just absorb increases of this magnitude."
And how long will it be that the subsequent diminished demand change that surcharge creates lead to a denial of service?
Mr Drury has reportedly made some poor decisions.
Xero HR has made poor decisions. If Mr Drury is found guilty I predict that Xero makes a generous settlement (under NDA with no admission of guilt, like..... just a friendly settlement)
Another colleague has also told Stuff Amy disclosed it to her at the time. “Something didn’t seem right with Amy,” she said. “I caught up with her and she told me about what had happened, the invitation to his apartment and an unwanted advance. It sounded gross and disgusting.”
Amy told Stuff that a couple of weeks after the initial encounter Drury messaged her again, “acting like nothing had happened”.
“You feel like you have no power,” she said, “because what are you going to do? He’s Rod Drury. No one’s ever going to believe you.”
At this point of our interview, Amy apologised that she couldn’t stop crying.
She said she told HR at the time, on the advice of colleagues, but did not want to make a formal complaint.
“I begged them not to do anything, but I wanted them to know what had happened. I didn’t want it to be taken further, because I didn’t want to lose my job.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360972770/second-former-xero-employee-a…
Not sure what Rod Drury has to do with dwelling consents or freight surcharges, but appreciate the variety pack.
Firstly, you ,do not get to control what anyone here brings to the conversation.
Secondly, Xero, is a major company, and the discussion of a major failure of Governance, is entirely appropriate for an investment community.
Xero must, at a minimum, focus on strengthening their non-financial risk (NFR) management framework.
No one said control mate, just asked relevance. Funny how it became “governance” only after being questioned.
My post was always about the poor decisions , allegedly, made by Mr D and Xero HR.
Governance is
the system of rules, processes, and structures used to direct and control an organization, ensuring it achieves its goals, manages risk, and acts with accountability
. It focuses on strategic, long-term oversight (the "big picture") rather than day-to-day management, often involving a board of directors. Good governance requires ethical leadership, compliance, and transparent reporting to stakeholders.
Xero HR are acting as if they are all of the Catholic Church, however what an employee tells HR does not give them magic protection under the Seal of the Confessional or the Sacramental Seal.
the Seal of Confession (also known as the Seal of the Confessional or the Sacramental Seal) is the absolute duty of priests or anyone who overhears a confession not to reveal anything that they learn from penitents during the course of the Sacrament of Penance (confession).[1]
The sacramental seal is inviolable. Quoting Canon 983.1 of the Code of Canon Law, the Catechism states, "...It is a crime for a confessor in any way to betray a penitent by word or in any other manner or for any reason" (No. 2490). A priest, therefore, cannot break the seal to save his own life, to protect his good name, to refute a false accusation, to save the life of another, to aid the course of justice (like reporting a crime), or to avert a public calamity. He cannot be compelled by law to disclose a person's confession or be bound by any oath he takes, e.g. as a witness in a court trial. A priest cannot reveal the contents of a confession either directly, by repeating the substance of what has been said, or indirectly, by some sign, suggestion, or action. A Decree from the Holy Office (Nov. 18, 1682) mandated that confessors are forbidden, even where there would be no revelation direct or indirect, to make any use of the knowledge obtained in the confession that would "displease" the penitent or reveal his identity.
Now lets imagine that HR could be acting in any manor influenced by a board member or owner.
This is Mr D's second accuser (That the public know about).
If Xero had a non-financial risk (NFR) management framework, it should have told HR what to do to follow the standard, no ifs or buts the non-financial risk (NFR) management framework is signed off by the board. so three things could have happened
- They did not have a strong non-financial risk (NFR) management framework. They then made decisions on the fly, perhaps without board endorsement or knowledge (quite a hard this to raise at a board meeting I suggest).
- The had one but did not follow it Maybe someone tried to follow the non-financial risk (NFR) management framework, but was shutdown by a more senior part of the risk team.
To avoid any change of chance of confusion, these are currently allegations yet to be fully tested by our justice system
Strong response to “variety pack”
We're kinda off-piste now, but given we're here, it's actually pretty common now in NZ Catholic churches for confessions to take place in open plan arrangements, such as in the body of the Church. This is because of safe-guarding policies where closed doors are generally discouraged. I don't mind it, but I must admit I do lower my voice to a whisper in case people overhear!!
Can you do it on a private Teams or Zoom?
Given that the NSA and Microsoft etc will be listening via AI......... but so is God, that would be much more concerning.
Pretty sure that's now allowed, it's a Sacrament so it has to be done in person.
Having said that, I could imagine someone setting up a phishing scam with an online confessional
From freight surcharges to church floorplans in under an hour. Elite variety pack
Xero is a listed company, so that's defendable.
And pretty sure Trump is leading us all to Armageddon so contemporary arrangements for Confessions is merely a public service announcement
Armageddon does improve the relevance of the confession angle, to be fair
Someone inside the Liv golf is now fessing up to a $5billion poor decision. In the hole Tiger. bad governance on both point there....
Some golfers have made fortunes from signing up. Well played I say.
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