A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; consumers turn negative, dwelling consents strong, housing market stalls, eye-watering freight increases, retail pain, swaps turn lower, NZD turns up, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Finance Direct has trimmed many of its term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

COMPOUNDING WORRY
Consumer sentiment has crashed. Yesterday we noted the dive in business sentiment. Today consumers are feeling just as gun-shy. The one month fall in sentiment is very much like what happened during the pandemic. In two months this dive is 20 points. It is even a sharper negative for those thinking it is a good time to buy a major household appliance. And inflation expectations (2-years ahead) jumped to 6.6%.

ENTHUSIASTIC CONSENTING
There were 37,813 new dwellings consented in the year ended March, up +11% compared with the year ended March 2025, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. In March alone, the levels remained high at 3677, rising +16% from February to their most since September 2025. But the value of these consents were up +8% on a per m2 basis. There is no way dwelling values are rising +8% pa anywhere. At some point there will be a reckoning.

MORE AVAILABLE AT A LOWER PRICE
Housing stock for sale in April is at a 12-year high and asking prices are declining on Realestate.co.nz as the market heads into winter.

HOUSING STALL
Cotality sees a sluggish housing market for the rest of 2026. NZ's median dwelling value inched up 0.1% in April, but Auckland and Wellington values still going backwards they say.

CONSENTED, YES. BUILT? IN QUESTION NOW
The April log market report shows that supply and demand for logs is being suppressed by uncertainties around how international log markets will react to higher fuel costs, and about the viability of local construction projects. They point out that the time to start construction on consented projects is blowing out, and a higher proportion are unlikely to be built - because new higher costs may result in a finished building costing more than it is worth.

GOOD NON-RES CONSENT LEVELS
Fortunately, non-residential building consents were quite good in March, bolstered by good levels of social building, plus some good new hotel consents. But office building was very weak.

HOW THE TRUMP WAR TAX AFFECTS US - BIGGLY
Click on this link to see what a major shipping company will surcharge cargoes to/from New Zealand. That will be real cost pain. There is no way anyone can just absorb increases of this magnitude.

NZX50 FIRMER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. And it is heading for a +0.6% weekly rise. It is down -4.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +6.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.6% so far today. Ryman, Kathmandu, Chorus and Fletcher lead the NZX50 gains as market ends the week higher. But Vista Group, SkyCity casino, Tourism Holdings and Sky TV are the main ones to weigh on the result.

PROFITS STAY HIGH
ANZ's NZ profit dipped in its six months to March to 1% less than last year's record level. Their NZ CEO is wary of 'the combination of inflation, interest rates & fuel costs' in the second half.

RETAIL PAIN
Retailer Briscoes is struggling to hold its revenue line with sales up only 1.4% in the March quarter from the same quarter a year ago, clearly far less than inflation. They say the sudden shift in sentiment had a noticeable impact across the broader retail sector during the latter part of the quarter, them included. And people are spending (losing) a lot less at casinos these days, something SkyCity finds "most pronounced" in their Auckland and Adelaide gambling dens

BI-PARTISAN SUCCESS
The Government is trumpeting the success of the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement which has now been running two years - and was negotiated and signed by Labour and Damien O'Connor. In the year to December under this deal, total goods exports were up +35% to $6.7 bln and services exports were up +11% to $2 bln. Big export gains to the EU included sheep meats up +50%, dairy products up +58%, industrial exports up 61%, and horticulture up +29% (of which Kiwifruit sold $1.2 bln.) These outcomes will make an interesting benchmark for National's India FTA. At present, India does not rank in our top 20 trading partners.

SWAP RATES SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates have likely turned lower today, perhaps down as much as -5 bps, and that follows Aussie shifts. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 2.63% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is back down -6 bps at 5.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.51% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.76%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +3 bps at 4.73%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.39%.

EQUITIES FIRM
The local equity market is up +0.3% in Friday day trade so far. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.7% at its Friday open. Hong Kong and Shanghai are on their May Day holiday today. It is a holiday in Singapore too. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +1.0% on those strong tech results.

OIL PRICES RISE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE US
American oil prices have risen +US$9 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$108.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 at just on US$112/bbl. US pump prices have jumped today.

CARBON PRICE RISES
There has been active again today on the secondary market, and the price has risen under this demand pressure now at $52.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4618/oz, up +US$56 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$74/oz and up +US$1.50/oz.

NZD RISES STRONGLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +80 bps against the USD, now just on 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.3 and up +50 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,533 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».