A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; BNZ & Rabobank raise rates, Barfoot reports 'difficult' April, EV sales zoom, commodity prices stay up, retail twisting on petrol, swaps stable, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ and SBS Bank have raised fixed rates today. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank raised TD rates today. TSB also made a small adjustment. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

APRIL "A DIFFICULT MONTH TO READ CLEARLY"
Barfoot & Thompson's sales numbers and selling prices both declined in April but stock levels were at an 18 year high for the month. Their median selling price dropped by almost $75,000 in April from March.

COST OF FUEL INCREASES SUCKING THE LIFE OUT OF OTHER RETAIL SPENDING
ANZ is reporting that its April card transaction data shows spending at fuel rose +0.9% in April on top of a +21% jump in March. This higher fuel spend continues to hit spending elsewhere. Hospitality fell just -0.2% in the month but this followed a -2.7% fall in March. Apparel spending fell another -1.5% in April on top of a -2.5% fall in March. And they say it's not just discretionary spend being impacted: the -1.4% fall in spend in the grocery category is unusually large.

WESTPAC URGES SMEs TO PASS ON THEIR HIGHER COSTS TO CUSTOMERS
Westpac reported that its profits for its half year rose +4% to $545 mln. They are claiming increased market share among SMEs. They say however, many businesses are deferring their growth plans, focusing instead on adapting to the changing global picture. “Our message to them has been to control the things they can control, like managing cashflow and moving from a just-in-time to just-in-case supply chain model, and be up front with customers about what they can’t control and why it might mean they have to pass on some of their higher costs.”

COMMODITY PRICES STAY UP, EXCEPT BUTTER
ANZ said its World Commodity Price Index fell -0.8% in April from March. Most commodity groups in the index rose in the month, but a -3.8% drop in dairy prices from March drove the headline result. "Dairy prices are in a period of high volatility, especially butter. Overall dairy prices are down -7.5% year-on-year, reflecting strong global supply."

THE RISE OF EVs
April new car sales shifted sharply towards EVs and plug-ins. Battery electric and plug in hybrid vehicles increased their share of registrations in April, accounting for 11.1% and 11.9% of the market respectively. Together, these represented just under a quarter of total registrations, remaining well above levels observed in prior periods and indicating a continued shift in the overall fleet mix. Overall there were 7110 new passenger vehicles sold in the month, +17% more than in April 2025. There were 6783 used imports sold in the month, an increase of +5% from a year ago.

NZX50 SHARPLY LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.9% so far today. But it is up +1.7% from a week ago. It is down -4.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +4.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.1% so far today. Sky TV, Contact, A2 Milk and Turners lead the NZX50 gainers while Gentrack, Mainfreight, Serko and Vulcan Steel are the main decliners.

AVANTI SCALING UP ITS FUNDS MANAGEMENT BUSINESS
Avanti Finance has appointed Paul Jamieson as General Manager of Avanti Capital, a newly created role reflecting Avanti’s investment in scaling its funds management platform in a strategic shift, a division that was launched in 2017.

LAWYERS RICH AFTER CLASS ACTION WIN
A High Court decision today ruled in favour of the Banking Class Action Group and against ANZ NZ in class action lawsuit. ANZ is facing up to a $125 mln settlement liability - and the class action lawyers are up for a very big payday. The affected customers? maybe only a nominal recovery.

AUCKLAND'S WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IN GOOD SHAPE
Watercare serves 1.8 million people, from Wellsford to Tuakau. They have 37 treatment plants, and more than 20,000 kms of fresh and wastewater piping. They also have& more than 1,000 projects planned over the next decade – an average investment of about $3.8 mln a day. Around half goes into replacing or upgrading existing assets, with the remainder expanding the network to support growth.

EYES ON THE RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today and will release its decisions at 4:30pm. They are widely expected to raise their cash rate target to 4.35%, a +25 bps increase.

SPENDING UP SHARPLY, VOLUMES DOWN
This comes after the March CPI rose +4.6%, and today they reported that household spending remained high over the year in nominal terms, up +6.3% compared to March 2025 (and the highest since January 2023). Most of this is 'price' and much of it relates to a +32.8% increase in monthly fuel prices. But in volume terms, they say fuel purchases are lower, down -1.3% in March from February.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates have been little-changed today as we await the RBA decision. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm which will be after the RBA decision is known. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.60% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is holding at 2.50% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.71%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -3 bps at 4.66%. The UST 10yr yield is up +6 bps from yesterday, now at 4.44%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is down -0.8% in Tuesday day trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is closed for Golden Week. Hong Kong is down -1.2% but Shanghai is still on holiday today. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street closed with the S&P500 down -0.4% in Monday trade.

OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices have risen +US$2 with the WTI benchmark now just on US$104/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$5 at just on US$113/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMER AT SIX MONTH HIGH
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, but the price has risen to $54/NZU and its highest since late October 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4542/oz, down -US$63 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$72\3/oz and down -US$2.50/oz.

NZD FALLS BACK
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.1 and down -30 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$80,568 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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