Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank has raised some TD rates. Luminate have trimmed some rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
EYES ON FALLING HOUSE PRICES
NZ likely to see a slower recovery, affecting job growth and debt servicing, but banks and farmers well placed to manage economic shock as housing market remains soft, according to the Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report. They also say that rising mortgage rates could reduce house prices further.
NO COUNTRY FOR YOUNG MEN?
The March quarter labour market data was out today. It recorded little change and is only of minor interest because the April Middle East events have overshadowed it. The economy was starting to regain some momentum in the early part of this year, but have clouded the outlook for both activity and inflation pressures in the months ahead. The RBNZ can conclude that we came into this shock with a labour market that was starting to improve but still had a substantial degree of slack. Of some concern is is effect the economy is having on 20-25 year old workers.
A PROFITABLE YEAR
Residential real estate sales commissions up +4% in the first quarter year-on-year, and up +19% compared to two years ago. That has driven these commissions to above $2 bln for the year. (An for a left-field perspective, that is 20% more than the average of each of the big banks profits.)
WITH A STORM EVERY EIGHT DAYS THAT TRIGGERS INSURANCE CLAIMS ...
A growing risk to financial stability could come from emerging insurance pressures. 'Concerns over affordability, climate change, and dependence on global reinsurance mean the situation could change quickly and warrants monitoring,' the Reserve Bank says.
NZX50 JUMPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today. And it is up +3.2% from a week ago. It is down -2.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.2% so far today. Infratil, Serko, Vista and Tower lift the NZX50 sharply, while Gentrack, a2 Milk, SkyCity casino and Kathmandu hold it back.
LOOKING AHEAD
Treasury released a raft of documents today revealing its advice to the Government over the Middle East oil conflict implications. These underpinned the Government's claim that the economic recovery was "delayed but not derailed".
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation is seems little-changed.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 34.0 | 26.1 | 34.4 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 7 | 10.4 | 19.1 | 20.2 |
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.9 | 27.1 | 31.4 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 9 | 11.7 | 22.0 | 27.3 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 36.4 | 27.5 | 31.8 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 6 | 9.3 | 14.1 | 15.6 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
'DON'T HOLD BACK'
In case you missed it yesterday, the RBA hiked its policy rate to 4.35% on inflation risks. And in the Governor's post-meeting comments she gave the green light for firms to pass on rising costs into their own prices.
EMBARASSING BACKDOWN
We should note that the US has 'paused' its efforts to protect ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and will not longer protect them, "temporarily". The announcement comes even though no ships actually got through under US protection.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm which will be after the RBA decision is known. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.61% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down-1 bp at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.76%. The Japanese 10 year bond is holding at 2.50% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.68%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -1 bp at 4.65%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.41%.
EQUITIES HIGHER
The local equity market is up +0.9% in Wednesday day trade so far. The ASX200 is also up +0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is closed for Golden Week. Hong Kong is up +0.9% and Shanghai is back from holiday and up +1.2% today. Singapore is unchanged at its open. Wall Street closed with the S&P500 up +0.8% in Tuesday trade.
OIL PRICES FALL BACK
American oil prices have fallen -US$3 with the WTI benchmark now just on US$101/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$4.50 at just on US$18.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $54/NZU, still its highest since late October 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RECOVERS
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4640/oz, up +US$98 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$75.50oz and back up +US$2.50/oz.
NZD MOVES BACK UP
The Kiwi dollar is up +70 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.6 and up +50 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,401 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.
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24 Comments
Residential real estate sales commissions up +4% in the first quarter year-on-year, and up +19% compared to two years ago. That has driven these commissions to above $2 bln for the year. (An for a left-field perspective, that is 20% more than the average of each of the big banks profits.)
They are doing Gods work!
Had thought real estate agents were likely the nadir of what the word agent is meant to encompass. But are learning the hard way, that in this regard travel agents, would give them a run for their money. As a disclaimer not all and sundry of course, but an unhealthy percentage nevertheless
They're all parasitic; not productive.
As are landlords.
As are people who live on an acre of land all to themselves...
That isn't parasitic.
I'm guessing it's a while since you looked in a dictionary...
Agree with much of your logic PDK, even if I'm a few years behind on reaching the same conclusions.
Not sure that I agree that landlords are parasitic. Our feeble attempts in the Wellington CBD market (and no, we didn't buy at the top) currently net us 1.5%. Selling after 10 years will give us a net loss of about 15% of total value - probably closer to 20% when selling (agents) costs are taken into account..
Some do well... some don't.
Which bankers cock are you sucking David?
Or is it all the sheep semen that new Zealanders have inside them that makes them fucking retarded.
Unnecessary language aside - his 'business model' is a gone-burger if he doesn't.
So he chooses to believe.
You still on a starboard tack?
On a one way ticket to?
Woah, do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
Might be related to a producer? If only to take the line from the Jersey Boys musical - didn’t you know that producers don’t have mothers.
I hope not if he’s been to the bank.
Unnecessary rude and low class language B Roulston, stop it.
yeah but it makes a valid point
He's posted worse on another article, obvious troll, who needs a good banning
David, can we blacklist this idiot?
Rhimline
He has been a member for one day. Won’t be missed.
News out of Yili suggests some changes at Westland Milk Products. Revenue for Westgold butter are apparently in the $1 billion region, but business unit profits are marginal and possibly zero. At a bare minimum. expect layoffs in middle to upper management. Worse case scenario, I shudder to think.
How long have they owned Westland? Is it ten years yet as that's when they no longer need to match Fonterra payout.
Edit.
Looked it up,sold in 2019.
6 years and 9 months. Purchase price was NZ$588 million for 100% equity so they have done remarkably well considering Westgold brand sales revenue.
When launched in ASEAN markets around 2019, Westgold butter was approx half what it sells for now. It's a great product but Asian shoppers are generally price sensitive when it comes to butter. Was the #1 foreign butter brand in Japan, which is a great endorsement of product qlty.
Don't know if there's any plans to sell the brand. And who would buy it?
Interest .co lost a lot when BH went solo.
Well worth the watch/listen
When I realised there was a disconnect between the pfaff put out by economics - and the real world, I chose this site because I thought he was the smartest in the field (and most likely to be able to think).
Didn't turn out that well, but that's how it goes.
EMBARASSING BACKDOWN
We should note that the US has 'paused' its efforts to protect ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and will not longer protect them, "temporarily". The announcement comes even though no ships actually got through under US protection.
Or as Fox Entertainment would spin it: "Deregulation of the Strait combined with self-regulation of those wishing to pass through it".
It reminds me of the abolishing of the BSA.
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