Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB raised most fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MORE LOCALS CHOOSE HERE RATHER THAN THERE
A recent fall in the number of people leaving and a rise in the number arriving has boosted our overall population as at March 2026 to 5,361,300. This comes after six years of very volatile changes in our migration flows. The recent turn higher is after the trend turned up at a relatively higher level. This long term chart displays the perspective best.
MORE EVIDENCE OF CONTRACTION
The BNZ/BusinessNZ PMI survey that found that the manufacturing sector retreated suddenly to almost a stall in April, and has found in a companion survey that the contracting services sector contracted less in April, but is still unable to get its head above water. BNZ's analysis of the results is a bit grim, highlighting the fall in discretionary spending, and the woes of the jobless. Despite the positive regional sector, they see this latest survey as confirming economic activity is contracting overall in Q2-2026.
COMCOM DECISION ON COMMERCIAL CARD INTERCHANGE NEARS
The Commerce Commission says it expects to publish a draft decision on interchange fee limits for Mastercard and Visa commercial credit cards before the end of May. After this, there'll be a four-week consultation period for feedback, and then a two-week cross-submissions period.
TOP PERFORMER
The New Zealand Super Fund has held its position as the world’s best performing sovereign wealth fund over the past 20 years, according to rankings compiled by international sovereign wealth fund experts GlobalSWF. (data is subscriber-only.) The NZSF had average annual returns of 9.93% before tax, compared to the average for a sovereign wealth fund of 6.2%. The high ranking was also achieved over the past five years, and past ten years.
CULMINATING?
Our weekly monitoring of commercial property for lease (ad volumes) shows that in Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch there were more increases, and to record high levels (we started this monitoring in April 2024). In most other urban areas, there are suggestions this growth is topping out - alt high levels admittedly.
SUPERMARKETS PLAYING FAIR (?)
As noted by other reports, our Grocery Price Monitor is not finding significant inflation in the sector either. Our high-frequency data is up to Friday. And we are not noticing grocery inflation in Australia either.
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms. Don't ask about the costs - certainly don't ask Air NZ.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 30.6 | 19.9 | 27.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 13.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026 | 12 | 56.2 | 46.3 | 47.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 29.6 | 22.3 | 28.4 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 24.3 | 21.3 | 20.6 |
| Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026 | 12 | 59.0 | 45.2 | 50.2 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 32.0 | 23.5 | 31.8 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 15.0 | 19.1 | 21.8 |
| Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026 | 11 | 51.0 | 44.3 | 54.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
ANOTHER WAY TO MONITOR THE IMPACT OF THE FUEL CRISIS
StatsNZ is summarising the data its sees and reports on regarding the economic impacts from conflict in the Middle East. You can check their review here.
NZX50 FALLS AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.0% so far today, heading for a weekly fall of -1.0%. It is down -3.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +1.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged from Friday. Air NZ, Tourism Holdings, Scales, and Vista gained, while a2 Milk, Ryman, Heartland, and Mainfreight declined.
LOWER AUCTION CLEARANCE RATE
In Australia, Cotality reported that 1,939 capital city homes went to auction last week, an -11% drop from the previous week, but still tracking higher than a year ago (+8.7%) when 1,784 home auctions were held. The preliminary clearance rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 57.5%, still a soft result but with highly mixed outcomes across different cities. This was the fifth time in the past seven weeks that the early clearance rate had held below the 60% mark and the third lowest result for the year-to-date. The Aussie Budget signals may have contributed to the mood. (Be careful comparing Australian and New Zealand clearance rates because they will include sales made after negotiation after the hammer drop. On the other hand, we have a strict hammer-drop criteria.)
CHRONIC CRISIS
To open the new week, oil prices have risen after Trump warned that Tehran is running out of time to reach a deal he likes, while Iranian media reports indicated the two sides remain far apart in negotiations. Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping supplies tight.
FALLING HOUSE PRICES
In China, new home prices across the 70 cities they reference shrank -3.5% in April from a year earlier, following a -3.4% decline in the previous month. This is the 34th consecutive month of contraction. It is also the sharpest contraction pace since May 2025. The weakness in their property sector goes on and on. The pace of decline in their existing home market is faster.
CHINA ACTIVITY SLOWS
Four a fourth month, China's electricity production fell from the previous month. But it was +2.6% higher than the same month a year ago. This is a good reference point to assess their industrial production, which they said rose +4.1% in April from a year ago. But that was the slowest they have reported for an April since 2022. Fixed asset investment fell -1.8% in April on that same basis.
CHINA RETAIL SALES FALL
At the same time, they said retail sales fell -0.5% in April after a -0.1% decline in March.
ANOTHER EXPORT WINNER
Singapore said its non-oil exports rose a fast +24.5% in April from a year ago, up sharply from the +15.3% pace in March. This was the eighth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace in fourteen years, with electronics the growth leader.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates will probably be up today, getting a good kick along from international pressure. The one year may be up +3 bps, the two year up +6 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.66% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 5.14% and its highest since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +8 bps at 2.79% today which we make as a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.86%, up +8 bps from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate up +2 bps at 4.75%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at 4.63% and its highest since late 2023.
EQUITIES IN A SEA OF RED
The local equity market is down -1.2% in Monday day trade so far. And the ASX200 opened its week down -1.4 in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.9% at its open. Hong Kong is down -1.6% but Shanghai is only down -0.2% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.6% at its open. Wall Street futures is suggesting that the S&P500 will open tonight down -0.4% following Friday's -1.2% drop.
OIL PRICES RISE FURTHER
American oil prices are up +US$2.50, with the WTI benchmark just on US$107.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is up +US$2 at US$111/bbl. These levels are approaching the recent peaks.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few good trades today on the secondary market, but smaller ones. The price has held at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4533/oz, down -US$6 from this morning. Silver is now just on US$75oz and down -50 USc from this morning.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this morning against the USD, now just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.8 and down almost -10 bps from this morning's open.
BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,784 and down -1.6% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.
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