A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; few retail rate changes, FHBs find mortgages more affordable, mortgage switching stays high, Spark dull, FPH shines, swaps soft, NZX firm, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Unity Money and Wairarapa Building Society (WBS) both raised some fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS raised some term deposit rates too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

APRIL HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY SLIGHTLY EASIER FOR FHBs DESPITE RISE IN MORTGAGE RATES
Getting into a home of their own became slightly easier for first home buyers in April, as falling house prices outpaced increases in mortgage interest rates, according the latest Home Loan Affordability report. Mortgage rates continued to increase in April, with the average of the two-year fixed rates offered by the major banks rising to 5.18% in April from 5.05% in March. However, the effect of that on mortgage payments was more than negated by a drop in house prices.

TOP-UP ACTIVITY, & BANK SWITCHING STAND OUT IN APRIL
New data for April from the RBNZ (C33) shows two interesting trends. First, there seem sto be a renewed interest in mortgage top-ups with $1 bln lend on this basis in April, almost 20% more than in April a year ago. That makes it two months in a row where top-up lending exceeded $1 bln, and the fourth month in the past seven of $1 bln+ top-up lending. The other point to watch is that borrowers switching banks are doing so with smaller loan balances. To the end of 2025 the average switched loan was over $720,000. In April this average has fallen to $650,000 - so many more borrowers with smaller loan balances are seeking to switch banks, presumably for sharper rates and lower payments (or to capture cash-back benefits). We will get some insight on which banks have been the wiiners, and who have been the losers, when the RBNZ Dashboard data is released late Friday

MARKETS FAR LESS CERTAIN
Two weeks ago (May 13), markets priced in a 50% chance that the OCR would be raised by +25 bps on Wednesday, May 27. At that time they had more than that +25 bps fully priced for July 8, and another +25 bps for September 2. Things have change since. Today they have virtually no chance of a rate rise priced in (just +4 of +25 bps). And they now don't have it fully priced for July 8 (+17 of +25), shifting the chances back to September 2 and October 28 where each is now priced for +25 bps. As for tomorrow, Westpac notes an on-hold decision is universally expected by markets and economists tomorrow. The market reaction will largely hinge on the OCR track shift and commentary tone, with much attention on the impact of the Iran war.

NZX50 LITTLE-CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today, with a weekly rise of +0.2%. It is down -4.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is now up +7.1% from yesterday. In addition to them, Gentrack, Air NZ, and Heartland drove the market higher amid their report releases, Infratil, Mainfreight, Freightways, and Port of Tauranga declined.

WHERE ARE THE ANGRY CROWDS & PITCHFORKS?
Some readers will know this daily summary has been critical of KiwiSaver returns (based on Sorted's analysis). One reason might be the allocation to Spark (SPK) in equity investments. Not that long ago it was well inside the top ten of NZX50 companies. Now it is unlucky #13. At the start of 2024 it had a capitalisation value of $10 bln. Now it is just $3.7 bln. That is a loss of value of -$6.3 bln. Over the same period profits have fallen. Their share price has too, only kept alive by a high dividend payout. It can't last. Where is the accountability of the board/management? Losing $6 bln should have crisis consequence. It's a loss equivalent to what the Government spends on Defence in a year, or what is spends on Jobseeker+Supported Living benefits. It is a huge amount. Vanished. (H/T BJ)

NO REAL RECOVERY YET
Ryman Healthcare (RYM) reported its Match 2026 annual result today, posting a +12.5% rise in revenues but a loss, even if it was much smaller than last year (-$171.3 mln, vs -$513.7 mln). Their share price has already been marked down -26% so far this year, and it dipped another -0.4% today. That is a capitalisation loss of -$1.15 bln in just five+ months.

WAITING FOR THE NEW PORTFOLIO TO PAY OFF
The Morrison investment vehicle Infratil (IFT) has posted flat results for its year ended March 2026. Their key top-line metric is EBIT which was up +11%, but NPATx was little-changed. More than 60% of their investments are now in the CDC data center business and One.NZ. Investors have been profit-taking today after the pre-announcement run up in the share price. Today it is down -6.5%, enough to drop them from #2 on the NZX50 to #3 by capitalisation.

FPH PROVES DOUBTERS WRONG - AGAIN
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) reported strong results today for their full year to March 2026. Revenues rose +14% from the prior year, NPATx rose +24%. Usually, good results trigger profit taking, but FPH shares had been marked down earlier, and the positive outlook (+12%) has triggered a share price surge. (+7.1%). Their capitalisation has fallen -$990 mln so far this year, even with today's jump.

'PEACE' SEEMS A LONG WAY OFF
In the Middle East, US and Israeli struck a number of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Donald Trump had suggested negotiations with Tehran over an interim deal were progressing. Renewed aggression there and in Lebanon hardly seems to indicate talks are "going nicely". Both sides are in a chronic violent embrace, despite what they say.

SWAP RATES SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates will probably show another dip in a global flattening trend, still all about the 'peace deal' hopes. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.62% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is unchanged at 2.71% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.64%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -4 bps at 4.64%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 4.51%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has picked up in the past hour so is now up +0.5% from yesterday. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is also down -0.4% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.4% but Shanghai is down -0.9% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.9% at its open. Remember, Wall Street is on holiday (Memorial Day Weekend) but will re-open tomorrow.

OIL PRICES HOLD/EASE
American oil prices are unchanged with the WTI benchmark still just on US$91.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down -US$1 at US$97.50/bbl. These shifts are before markets react to the latest hot flare-up.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold is down at US$4534/oz, down -US$36 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$77oz and down -50 USc.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday open against the USD, now just on 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62 and down -20 bps from this morning.

BITCOIN MARGINALLY SOFTER
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,556 and down -0.6% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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