A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Kiwibank tweaks TD rates, filled jobs rise mainly in the health sector, bank NIMs fall, Fonterra positive, more in Budget than expected, swaps & NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today so far. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised its 9 and 12 month TD rates. Southern Cross Partners raised its rates by +25 bps to 5.75%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

INCHING AHEAD
New data out for April today showed there are now 2.37 mln filled jobs, up +12,759 from a year ago or +0.5%. +5527 of this increase were in the health sector, +2386 in transport, and +2248 in agriculture. But manufacturing shed -3238 jobs in the year. The net rise was the fastest in two years. But over the past four months, the net rises have been modest although far better than the net declines in 2025. But the bar for "far better" is actually very low.

CO-OP BANK CAUGHT IN AML BREACHES
The Co-operative Bank has acknowledged its breaches of anti-money laundering requirements as the RBNZ files anti-money laundering court proceedings against them. The parties suggest a $1.425 mln penalty and ask the court to approve it as settlement of the matter.

MORE PROFITABLE, STABLE PAYOUT FORECAST
Fonterra said today that it is confident of growth despite the geopolitical backdrop. Their Q3-2026 business update released its new season payout forecast, basically flat from the its existing season forecast. They claim a +15% after-tax profit gain from continuing operations however.

THE POLITICS OF RATE SETTING
There were three dissenters at yesterday's RBNZ OCR review, all who wanted a +25 bps increase. The split was between them and the RBNZ staff on the Monetary Policy Committee (who all wanted no change). All three of the outside members were appointed by the current Finance Minister (Carl Hansen in April 2024, Professor Prasanna Gai in July 2025, and Hayley Gourley in October 2025). In fact, Governor Breman was appointed to be 'laser focused' on inflation risks. Unless the Finance Minister exerts pressure otherwise, we are in for a series of OCR rate hikes in the lead up to the November 7 election. There will be OCR reviews on July 8, September 2, and October 28, 2026.

BUDGET 2026
We have full coverage of all the key issues. Those articles and reviews can be accessed here.

BANK MARGINS COMPRESSING
New data out from the RBNZ shows the banks' net interest margins (NIM) fell sharply in March, down to 2.17% from 2.32% in December and the lowest since the pandemic. For perspective, the average from September 2023 to December 2025 was 2.34%. For the five years prior to the pandemic it averaged 2.12%. For the five years prior to that it averaged 2.24%.

ACTIVE DEFENSE?
After purchasing more than $560 mln in NZD in FX markets in March, the RBNZ purchased another $350 mln in April. That is more than $910 mln spent buying NZD in two months, possibly in defense of our currency. Their FX intervention capacity is now $26.5 bln.

NZX50 MOMENTUM FADES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far today, with a weekly rise of +2.7%. It is down -1.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is now up +0.6% from yesterday. Mainfreight, Vista, Summerset, and Tourism Holdings lead the index with more FY26 result releases; but Kathmandu, Serko, Chorus, and Fletcher are the big decliners.

STRIDE UPDATED
Stride Property (SPG) has released its full year results. Our profile has now been updated.

LESS BOND ISSUANCE
Less bond issuance will be needed, according to Budget 2026. The forecast NZGB program has been reduced by -$6 bln across the forecast period compared to the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 (HYEFU), reflecting a reduction in forecast cash requirements. The forecast 2026/27 NZGB program has been set at $34 bln, unchanged from HYEFU. The forecast NZGB program for 2027/28 through until 2029/30 have each been reduced by -$2 bln, resulting in program of $32 bln in 2027/28, $30 bln in 2028/29 and $28 bln in 2029/30. (The 2025/26 year is unchanged at $35 bln.)

AUSSIE SPENDING SAG
Updated Australian household spending data for April shows it fell -1.1% month-on-month (on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis) to be +4.9% higher than in April 2025. In the same period CPI inflation rose 4.2%. The weak outcome is being attributed to the sharp hike in fuel costs, and compensating pullbacks elsewhere. It is their first fall in household spending in four months.

UNCHANGED IN KOREA
The Korean central bank kept its official rate unchanged today at 2.5%, as expected.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates will probably show a small rise, following the Budget. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.62% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.91%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also down -2 bps at 2.69% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65%, unchanged from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -2 bps at 4.69%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.51%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market little-changed from yesterday. The ASX200 is down -1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.1% at its open. Hong Kong is down -2.0% and Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.7%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 essentially unchanged.

OIL PRICES DIP
American oil prices are down -US$1 with the WTI benchmark now just over US$91/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just over US$96.50/bbl and down -US$1.50.

CARBON PRICE DIPS MARGINALLY
There have been a few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has dipped slightly, now at $52.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down at US$4395/oz, down another -US$110 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$73oz and down a sharp -US$4.

NZD FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday open against the USD, now just on 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +70 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.4 and up +20 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN LOWER AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$74,102 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday and a five week low. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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