Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today so far other than a rise by First Credit Union. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union was the only change, a rise. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STILL DEEPLY NEGATIVE, BUT LESS SO
The May version of the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey found a lift from the very low April levels (which had approached the lows in the pandemic). The net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose 5 points to -20. So still very negative. Inflation expectations (2-years ahead) eased from 6.6% in April to 5.3% in May, while house price expectations dropped 0.7ppts to 2.6%. Wellington is much more downbeat than the rest of the country.
A PARTIAL BOUNCE-BACK
However, business confidence bounced back strongly in May in the ANZ survey, lifting lifted 21 points in the month, but at +10 it is still well down on levels prevailing before the Middle East conflict. Expected own activity rose 6 points from 19.6 to 25.6. Past own activity eased from 16.1 to 14.8. Inflation indicators were slightly lower. Inflation expectations eased from 3.81% to 3.63%, while pricing intentions fell 1 point to 56.7. Expected price and cost increases also eased a touch.
ANZ NZ APPEALS
ANZ NZ has appealed the recent High Court decision that went against it in a class action law suit, from which the bank says it faces a maximum potential liability of $125 million. ANZ NZ CEO Antonia Watson says the bank's appealing the decision becauset the High Court incorrectly applied the law.
PROVING SUPPLY IS A KEY ISSUE FOR AFFORDABILITY
The number of new homes being completed in Auckland increased steadily over the March quarter. A lift in new dwelling completion numbers suggests Auckland's building industry may be on the road to recovery after its recent slump. But rising supply may keep a cap on selling prices.
STEADY INCREASES
The April RBNZ data shows that total lending for housing is now up to $397 bln, with 98.7% at banks. The expansion of this book is unremarkable in April, rising at the same clip it has all year (+5.8% from the same month a year ago). It will be touch-n-go, but it is possible lending for housing will hit $400 bln at the end of May, maybe the first week of June. Lending to all other sectors is expanding at a similar pace to prior recent months too.
TDs BACK IN FAVOUR
Household bank deposits rose a respectable +$2.4 bln in April from March to $272.8 bln. Transaction accounts were up +$690 mln, at-call savings accounts were up +$380 mln, and household term deposits rose +$1.3 bln and their most since September 2024.
KIWISAVER FUNDS DELIVER SHOCKINGLY POOR RETURNS
According to RBNZ data, the value of KiwiSaver assets actually fell in March from December, down -$650 mln. This was despite members adding +$2.7 bln to their accounts in the same quarter (EE+ER+Govt). So that means fund managers lost them -$3.5 bln. Not a great look. From a year ago, these fund values rose a net +$13.5 bln after members contributed +$11.1 bln. So the industry net performance was +1.9% for the year. Move to someone/something that can consistently do better than that. Use this tool to check your KiwiSaver fund performance. Politicians who want to force more fund flows into KiwiSaver should first address this chronic under-performance before they act. We estimate that fund managers 'earned' (?!) more than $900 mln in the year to March.
STARTING LOW
In an interesting twist, Westpac has set its 2026/267dairy season payout forecast to $9.50/kgMS. This is interesting because it is recent and it is below what Fonterra indicated earlier in the week, at $9.75/kg/MS. Westpac's forecast is the lowest of any analyst who has made a new season forecast. The current 2026/27 dairy season formally starts on June 1, 2026.
HIGH LIVESTOCK PRICES
Livestock processors are reporting stronger pricing for mutton into China and Taiwan, driven mainly by tighter supply out of Australia. Lamb prices, however, have remained relatively stable. For beef, there has been limited activity out of the US this week. However at the farm gate, prices are firming across the board, although more so in the North Island than the South Island. Of note is the continuing rise for venison which are now approaching their record highs of mid 2018.
HIGH WOOL PRICES
Prices for coarse wool continue to impress with further rises at sales this week. The fiber is having its day in the sun, again, after a very long low period. Prices are back or above their brief 2016 high levels. Lack of supply is helping those who kept the faith and stayed in the sheep industry. (It isn't just a New Zealand thing, it is global.)
NZX50 MOVES UP MODESTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today, with a weekly rise of +1.9%. It is down -1.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed, down less than -0.1% from yesterday. Tourism Holdings, Serko, Summerset, and Kiwi Property lifted the NZX50 into the weekend; while a2 Milk, Gentrack, Channel Infrastructure, and Infratil are the main decliners.
STRONG DEMAND PERSISTS
There were three NZGB maturities offered at today's Budget-delayed tender of a total of $450 in three maturities. There were 99 bids totaling almost $1.4 bln. Yields were slightly lower, except for the April 2029 bond which was last offered 15 weeks ago.
JAPANESE RETAIL STRONG
Japanese retail sales have risen to a one year high in April, up +2.1% from a year ago and besting forecasts of +1.3%. It is being driven by resilient consumer demand from ongoing government stimulus and rising wages.
SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates will probably show a small fall today at the short end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.63% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.83%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also down -4 bps at 2.65% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.57%, down -8 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +3 bps at 4.62%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps at 4.44%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The local equity market is up +0.2% from yesterday. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade, recovering Wednesday's drop. Tokyo is up +1.9% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.4% but Shanghai is little-changed at its open today. Singapore is up +0.6%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.6%.
OIL PRICES DROP
American oil prices are down -US$3 with the WTI benchmark now just under US$88/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$92/bbl and down -US$4.50.
CARBON PRICE QUIET
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $52.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RECOVERS
In early Asian trade, gold is up at US$4505/oz, back up +US$110 from this time yesterday and recovering its 24 hr fall. Silver is now just under US$76/oz and up +US$3.
NZD MUCH FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from this time yesterday open against the USD, now just on 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 63 and up +60 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN LOWER AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$73,2182 and down -1.2% from this time yesterday and a five week low. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.
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37 Comments
Recovery?
So growth is taken as a base-line constant?
If so, we can indeed predict the future
and it is short.
I went in to that KiwiSaver funds comparison tool. I couldn’t see anything in it that clearly states the period of time across which they have calculated the average returns.
anyone know?
per annum? Averaged across a time period? 5 years?
Depends on who sorted them with the best bribe.
Actually there was a drop down under each fund that explains it’s over 5 years
don’t know if they are that bad when you account for the fact that 2021 and 2022 was so weak for equities
Actually they really aren’t great. Most of the growth funds have grown 5-6%, compare that with the pretty average NZX50 over 5 years at about 9%
Every day the bet extends, we burn - gone forever - 100 million barrels of oil (well, a little less lately) and the BOE in gas/coal of 200 million more.
And we know that those bets are not all redeemable, on rebuildable energy harvesting tech (glibly called renewable).
So the increase in share-value numbers is related to ?
A lack of alternative parcels to pass.
I’d still rather have a KiwiSaver provider that makes a decent return over one that doesn’t.
Why bother at all?
There's only one way for the combined bets to go, vis-a-vis buying real stuff.
So buy it now
Middle east an ongoing cluster, SoH still effectively closed and Brent Crude falling day after day. When are we going to see the reality of massively more expensive fossils?
We've had that debate - more than a decade ago.
The Trouble with Money | Financial Sense
But I'm hearing that almost everything - unsurprisingly - is having to pass on the increases so far. And we are totally ignoring to 3rd world,
Actually they really aren’t great. Most of the growth funds have grown 5-6%, compare that with the pretty average NZX50 over 5 years at about 9%
Yet fund managers still paid handsomely. BTW, this a response to Sam Stubbs about KiwiSaver being appropriated by the govt for pet projects.
I would likely remind you of a fundamental principle: KiwiSaver money does not belong to the State. It belongs to millions of individual savers who sacrificed consumption today to secure their own future tomorrow.
That distinction matters.
A large national savings pool is a sign of private discipline and capital formation, not an invitation for politicians to treat citizens’ retirement savings as a strategic funding vehicle for government ambitions.
Once the State gains influence over where private savings “should” go, economic freedom begins to erode. History repeatedly shows that governments are poor capital allocators compared to free individuals and competitive markets.
KiwiSaver should remain voluntary, privately directed, and protected from political capture. Retirement savings are not public money. They are an extension of individual liberty.
They're an ever-increasing bet on an ever-being-depleted planet.
I reckon the punters will be angry when they find out that money isn't a store of wealth.
That isn't what they were told.
In the long run we're all dead. Everything else is a choice.
Not if that choice was because you were told porkies.
That begets the pitchforks...
The National Disaster Fund post WW2 was set up to help protect the citizens from the impact of earthquakes etc. It was funded by levies on insurance premiums. As such it was public funds not government funds. That didn’t prevent governments, both of ‘em, from siphoning until the Lange/Douglas government, in need of a surplus, simply corralled the funds. Then came the Canterbury earthquakes, EQC was depleted, Treasury intervened, and the citizens suffered the consequences. About as foul a public service that you can ever imagine. And so folks don’t ever imagine that any government of any hue won’t help themselves to your Kiwi Saver because they if they can they will.
Then came the Canterbury earthquakes, EQC was depleted, Treasury intervened, and the citizens suffered the consequences.
The corruption and rot from the quake recovery has never been fully exposed. It was quite well know in the construction industry far beyond Aotearoa borders.
A Wizard of Id cartoon summed it up. The King of Id said unto his worthy peasants - I have good news and bad news. First the bad news I am going to nationalise all your provident funds. And the good news is, you will all be allowed to work until you are ninety.
I remember the one where the town crier was walking down the street, a night sky - and he's hollering "4am - and all's well".
Exclamation marks from windows...
Again the hapless peasants, one to another, as the King is displaying a graph on a chart, to negotiate the said peasants’ wage review - don’t like the look of this, he’s using a screwdriver as a pointer.”
Stronger NZD and significantly lower international oil prices - great news for kiwis at the fuel pump
at least for now
Not so great for future generations, but who cares as long as our generation can burn burn burn.
Not to worry, we have at least a hundred years of fossil fuel runway to help us transition to alternative energy sources.
The poster I have long since written off as one who fiercely doesn't want to know.
But for those 2 uptickers:
His posit fails almost every test. How many people? Using how much energy per head? Parrying how much increased entropy (everything will be 70+ years older, all requiring even more maintenance that the first world is already dodging/fudging. At what EROEI, by then?
Then there is the fleet of everything - from road surfaces to vehicles to energy systems to living arrangements (suburbia doesn't work too good without vehicles) - everything today, is made of, made by, extracted/processed disposed-of by fossil fuels - which has to be built-out before the demise of the FF stock.
Yet less than 2 billion consumers (our level) have ALREADY consumed half the resource (the best half) and are having to fight for access most of the last half. Presumably the statement takes into account the energy going to be required, to hold the other 6+ billion at bay... Not.
Linear assertions made in mid-air, unreferenced, do not a fact make.
You’re stacking worst-case assumptions on top of each other and treating the result as inevitable. The transition away from fossil fuels won't be easy but that doesn’t automatically validate a systems-collapse narrative or mean that technological adaptations will be ineffective.
Always trade offs, Jimbo.
the recent high fuel costs must have been very challenging for many low and middle income people who are reliant on cars for day to day things.
bit of relief for those battlers
Especially for those who weren't told - or didn't think - that less offspring might be less load...
What about the low income earners of the next generations?
How about we categorise that properly?
Those who, in the future, will have low access to energy and resources - while having to cope with an altered ecosystem/habitat.
They will be pi--ed with us - and will ask how we managed to avoid the obvious, for so long?
As to how they'll be living - in a nutshell, on less energy. So much more local. Think what happened as energy-per-head increased; specialisation, a massed move into cities. So expect the reverse - a massed move towards food-producing land, and a move towards generalisation. Plus a divestment of the discretionary.
I'm guessing so local that Dunbar's Number figures, and so de-energised that national governance has been abandoned. And all well before 2100... They will be attuned to nature (seasons/weather), will have invented new narratives (The Chrysalids is an old but thought-provoking read) and of necessity new social constructs (some empathetic, some psychopath-led). They will have food-producing skills, repair skills, a wider way of thinking (my better half taught critical literacy - to which I'd add logic and lateral thinking and Systems). Of them all, lateral-thinking/MacGuyvering will be the most in-demand, for the 100-odd years there is residual 'stuff' around.
You are, of course, welcome to print and distribute as much money to them, as you wish. Unlimited (ask von Papen how that works out). If you think it will help. I'm sure they'll see the joke.
Why is it either/or?
I fully support a transition, but a transition implies a gradual shift.
Yes, that shift should have been fostered / pushed much earlier.
Do you think people getting whacked hard by the cost of fuel is really going to quicken the transition? It might in fact do the opposite. It could, and perhaps already has, hardened attitudes towards 'green policy initiatives'.
In my view, the best thing that could be done is to enable / support / incentivise developers to build much more affordable apartments near the best public transport and employment centres. Unfortunately, the policy makers in this country are pretty clueless in this respect.
This is interesting Japan is exporting gold at a record pace: Japan’s gold exports surged +35.6% yoy in FY2025, ending in March 2026, to ~$25.5 billion - highest since data began in 1988.
10x+ Aotearoa's gold exports.
Japan's domestic gold production is too small to account for the scale of export growth - most production would be used internally [I used to own Sumitomo Metal Mining, the largest gold miner].
Apparently, gold is smuggled into Japan without the standard 10% consumption tax, sold domestically at tax-inclusive prices to generate a profit margin, and then exported overseas. Smugglers buy gold bullion in regions with no or low consumption/VAT on gold, such as Hong Kong.
https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/commodities/japan-gold-exports…
Guangzhou has unveiled a plan for a state-owned housing company to buy secondhand homes directly from individual owners, extending government support for China’s struggling property market into the resale segment.
The proceeds of these sales must be used to upgrade housing (i.e. buy another apartment), and because the state-owned housing company will pay more than the seller could otherwise get in the market.
Could Aotearoa do this to support the Ponzi?
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-05-27/guangzhou-state-firm-to-buy-sec…
Bezos hasn't quite got that Amazon-to-the-moon thing sorted yet:
Blue Origin New Glenn EXPLODES During Pre-Launch Testing | Analysis
China consumes nearly half the world’s cigarettes, with smoking linked to 3,000–7,000 deaths daily. Despite the health impact, the government remains financially dependent on the state-owned China National Tobacco Corporation, which generates massive tax revenue, complicating efforts for national anti-smoking reform.
Tobacco industries are a huge tax revenue source in China. Also Japan and Vietnam.
Sky News picks up on the Aussie property buyers agency going bankrupt.
https://www.skynews.com.au/business/real-estate/property-firm-dashdot-b…
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