Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes to home loan rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society, Xceda and Liberty Financial all raised term deposit rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'RESILIENT'
Barfoots said today their May sales were 'encouragingly resilient" in Auckland, with 885 sales (even if they were -17% lower than in May 2025), and the median price at $980,000 (up from $928,000 a year ago).
BUYERS MARKET
Meanwhile, listing portal Realestate.co.nz said that nationally the housing market moved even further in buyers' favour in May with asking prices dropping for the third consecutive month and stock for sale at a 12 year high for the time of year.
HIGHER VALUES
In another housing market perspective, Centrix said higher-value mortgage lending is on the rise. They note that over 134,000 homeowners now have mortgages exceeding $1 million.
LOW RETURNS, NEGATIVE CASHFLOWS
In our March quarterly update of our residential yield and cashflow report, we found residential investment property continues to offer comparatively poor returns in the absence of capital gains. Currently low rental yields suggest negative cash flows could be a possibility for mortgaged investors.
MORTGAGE FRAUD ALLEGED
The FMA said today it has filed 61 charges against six individuals under the Crimes Act, the Secret Commissions Act and the Financial Markets Authority Act, relating to an alleged mortgage fraud. These charges were filed at the Manukau District Court and suppression orders are in place.
DAIRY PRICES EASE MARGINALLY
There was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF, butter and cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too.
MODEST NEW SEASON FORECAST
ANZ said it has raised its forecast milk payout price for 2026/27 to $9.20/kgMS, revised up from $8.70. The new season is starting on a positive footing, with good dairy commodity prices and a favourable exchange rate they noted. But they expect these levels to ease as the year and season develops. Not only is their new season forecast still well below their current season forecast of $9.85/kgMS, it is also below most others who have ventured a new season forecast, including Fonterra's $9.75/kgMS.
BUILDING PERMIT JUMP
There was a strong rise in residential building consents in April from the same month in 2025, and it was a national effect. In Auckland, it was up +21% (to 16,687 dwelling units), in Waikato it was up +6.3%. In Wellington it was au +13%, in Canterbury up +29%. But given the state of the real estate market, it is hard to see rises of this magnitude continuing.
TERMS OF TRADE EASE
Even though export volumes rose +2.7% in the March 2026 quarter from the December quarter, import volumes rose +2.2% in the same period. Export prices fell -2.7% and import prices fell -0.7% in the same period. All that was enough for our merchandise terms of trade to drop -2.0% from the prior quarter. But from a year ago, the net terms of trade is up +3.6%.
TOURISM STRONG
The situation is looking good for our services sector. Services exports rose +17% or +$1.6 bln to $11.5 bln in the March 2026 quarter compared with the March 2025 quarter, according to data out from Stats NZ. Travel flows within this rose +23%.
CHARGES TO BE FILED
The Commerce Commission will be filing charges against petrol retailer BP under the Fair Trading Act for allegations the company failed to give customers discounts they were entitled to, and charged incorrect prices at BP Connect Service Stations. Separately, ComCom is monitoring petrol retailer margins. So far they haven't identified any anomaly or evidence pricing is any different to pre-Hormuz.
NZX50 LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today, with a weekly rise of +0.4%. It is down -3.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.6% from yesterday. Gentrack, Sanford, Investore Property and Hallensteins are today's top gainers as Vista Group, EBOS, Mainfreight, and A2 Milk are the main decliners.
CHINA'S SERVICE SECTOR RISES
According to the private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI for China, that sector is expanding on a faster basis, much stronger than as reported by their official data. New business is expanding and they are hiring faster. But they also face their highest cost pressure since October 2023.
CAUTIOUS CONSUMERS, LOWER EXPORTS
Australia released its Q1-2026 GDP data today, saying their economy expanded +2.5% in real terms over the past year. But the growth rate slowed in the March quarter from the December 2025 quarter. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March month likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour. This resulted in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories. And exports fell. The unders and overs likely balanced out but the level of spending on equipment for new data centers was so large it might have accounted for all the Q1 gain.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +3 bps at 2.65% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.90%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.71%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -6 bps at 2.59% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.59%, unchanged from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate up +3 bps at 4.55%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.46%.
EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The local equity market is down -0.3% from yesterday at this time. However, the ASX200 is up +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +2.6% in a strong showing at its open. Hong Kong is down -1.6% but Shanghai is up +0.3% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.9%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 up just +0.1%.
OIL PRICES HIGHER
American oil prices are up +US$2.50 with the WTI benchmark now just under US$94.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$97/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few small trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $51/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is unchanged at US$4479/oz. Silver is now just over US$75/oz and also little-changed.
NZD STABLE AT LOWER LEVEL
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.8 and little-changed from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN TUMBLES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$66,510 and down -5.8% from this time yesterday and a new seven week low. Volatility has been high at just on +/- 3.7%.
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10 Comments
Regarding median price of house sales going up - they really need to disaggregate houses, town houses, and apartments .
Sales of town houses in particular could be tanking, which would increase the median (and average)
Need more data
Regarding median price of house sales going up - they really need to disaggregate houses, town houses, and apartments .
If you segment residential property sales like this, the sample sizes for town houses and apartments are likely to be small. So it doesn't really necessarily give you much insight into price movements by respective definition.
In an big city like Auckland it will
Approx 2000 total "house" sales per month. Assuming this definition includes apartments and town houses, a minimum sample of 300 per month for each, that's approx 30% of total sales.
Perhaps you're right.
https://quarterly.infometrics.co.nz/auckland/housing/house-sales?compar…
Best to just wait for the HPI which is supposed to adjust for this kind of thing.
I guess. Although if B&T put out a press release I'd expect them to do it
On the flip side, I think a fair chunk of the decline (in Auckland at least) has been that the median house is no longer a house. Maybe it’s just our area, but appartments, townhouses, units and cross leases seem to outnumber standalone freehold houses these days. 20 years ago it was almost completely stand alone houses.
I have seen Ponsonby Villas down 30% from peak, so call BS on the townhouse BS , whats fallen as any pro valuer will tell you is the average price per sq m of the land underneath. if anything the cost of the build has gone up.
Fair enough. Although keep in mind these new townhouses are sharing a lot of land that used to be one house. Many 800m2 sections near us now have 5 townhouses instead, so the land each of those houses sits on is worth about 1/5 of the original.
Good WSJ article about Hyperliquid, a decentralized crypto platform, which is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The exchange has emerged this year as a go-to spot for Wall Street’s weekend warriors.
I missed the boat on Hyperliquid's token. Too many hoops to jump through.
A growing army of both traditional and crypto traders is flocking to the platform to wager on just about anything, from bitcoin and the S&P 500 to crude oil and pre-IPO giants like SpaceX. Their market of choice is perpetual futures, or derivative contracts that never expire and allow users to trade at any time and with massive leverage, with their bets amplified by the paper value of their position.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/this-crypto-trading-platform-is-…
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