A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; ASB adjusts TD rates, grocery prices rise, bank lending to business/rural rises, livestock prices elevated, Hormuz trickle up slightly, swaps stable, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB has increased five TD rates, but just to match their rivals. Nothing special here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIGHER COSTS, LOWER VOLUMES
Diesel costs declined almost -19% in May but that wasn't enough to offset other price rises in the building industry with some costs increasing by +25% according to QV's CostBuilder.

MONITORING GROCERY COSTS
In the past two weeks we have observed that grocery prices have started to rise. Our long term monitoring suggests part of this may just be seasonal, although from a year ago, these prices are now up +4.0% (from being flat recently). (We also monitor the same items in Australia, and oddly, there we recorded quite a fall in cost. There they are down -3.8% year-on-year. But that may give a somewhat false perspective because of the unusually high year-ago levels. From two years ago, the Australian increase is +4.5%. From two years ago the New Zealand increase is +5.8%.) See this.

CAR INSURANCE RATES STABLE
Our weekly monitoring of new (Toyota RAV4) and used (Toyota Aqua) car insurance premiums across five online insurance platforms hasn't thrown up anything new, except that State has reduced its standard deductible from $500 to $300. Costs for the new vehicle are only up modestly from a year ago (+3%) but costs for the used vehicle are down about -7% from a year ago. But there continues to be meaningful variation between offers, and in turn that varies between Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. Shop around (focus on coverage first, not premiums).

BUSINESS LENDING RISES QUICKLY
Other than for commercial property, banks loaned $3.1 bln to businesses in April, double the level of a year ago. Over the full year, to April, that is up an impressive +23%.

BACK LENDING FOR RURAL PROJECTS
Bank lending for rural purposes is quite positive too, $1.3 bln or up +40% in April from a year ago, the same on a full year basis. For dairy projects it was up +50% in April, for sheep & beef farms up +40%.

LIVESTOCK PRICES STAY ELEVATED
Beef and lamb markets remain firm, up from tight global supply and ongoing geopolitical disruption. US beef import demand continues to support prices. Lamb remains elevated due to constrained supply in NZ, Australia, and Europe and steady demand from key markets. Competition for lamb in South Island markets is keen.

NZX50 LOWER YET AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.3% so far today, with a weekly fall now of -1.2%. It is down -3.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +1.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.3% from yesterday. AirNZ, Mainfreight, Genesis and EBOS rose while Kathmandu, A2 Milk, Tourism Holdings and Freightways weakened.

PROFILE UPDATE
Our profile for Ryman Healthcare (RYM) is now updated, based on their latest annual report. For readers who are somewhat unfamiliar with reading financial statements, these profiles will give you an easy snapshot and perspective for each listing company in the NZX50 set.

STILL ONLY A TRICKLE
To cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is rising, marginally. Ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. 380 are waiting. 'Normal' is about 60 ships per day.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.66% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is also up +1 bp at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.66% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.55%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate unchanged at 4.55%.) The UST 10yr yield is also unchanged at 4.48%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is up +0.3% from yesterday at this time. However, the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.2% in another weak showing at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.9% but Shanghai is up +0.2% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.4%.

OIL PRICES EASE
American oil prices are down -US$1.50 with the WTI benchmark now just under US$93.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just over US$95.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has slipped -$2 to $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$37 at US$4437/oz. Silver is now just under US$72.50/oz and down -US$1.

NZD HOLDS SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps too at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.2 and actually little-changed from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN EASES FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,495 and down another -2.2% from this time yesterday. The last time it was this low was in October 2024. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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