A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; time for renters to buy, more Budget 2026 details, primary sector export gains, wildly popular NZGB tender, swaps stable, gold drops hard, NZD eases, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report again today other that from the Heretaunga Building Society (HBS). But we have an analysis of the competitive discrepancy that has now developed in the home loan market. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either, again, other than from HBS. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GOOD TIME TO BUY A HOME TO LIVE IN, NOT SO FOR INVESTORS
The May realestate.co.nz data shows that tenants who are looking to buy have plenty of properties to choose from with vacant rental stock remaining elevated. That same oversupply has capped rents and is even bringing downward pressure on them.

BUDGET DRILL-DOWN
We have completed our analysis of the pre-election Budget and released an extra six pages that list the cost details for the Social Welfare, Health, Financing, Education, Transport and Housing categories. Total central government spending (which includes income transfers) will be about 38% of GDP in the upcoming budget year. And that is down from over 42% in the 2021/22 budget year.

HIGHER LEVERAGE, LOWER PROFITS
The recent release of the RBNZ's Dashboard and our Key Bank Metrics tool which uses that data, has enabled us to update our summary tables of the banking sector. Banking system leverage is up to 10.9 times, largely due to rises by ANZ (10.9x) and BNZ (10.5x). This leverage peaked in at March 2009 at 15.7x and has been trending lower since. Total tax-paid profits fell to $6.8 bln in the year to March, the lowest since December 2023. And it is probably worth noting that BNZ rose to be the second largest bank again (by assets), overtaking ASB in March 2026, and reclaiming that spot after ASB held the #2 position for the three prior quarters.

"FAIR OUTCOMES" - BUT FOR WHO? TOLERATING CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
The FMA wrote to insurers last year after seeing some insurers offering benefits and campaigns designed to drive business coming from third parties such as financial advisers. The FMA acknowledges these types of incentives can create conflicts of interest that put the fair treatment of consumers at risk. But the FMA seems to be prepared to tolerate this, saying "These benefits and campaigns, or soft commissions, have a place ..." so long as insurers try to not disadvantage consumers. Really? Tolerating built-in conflicts of interest is bad regulation and oversight. The industry has captured this regulator. No amount of regulatory box ticking will overcome the basic flaw. How can marketing campaigns to drive more business via advisers through soft commissions ever be in consumers' best interests?

PROGRESS, BUT THE PACE WILL HAVE TO PICK UP
According to MPI's June quarterly update (SOPI), primary sector export revenue is now expected to hit $64.3 bln in the year to June 2026, up +6%, with records across multiple sectors driven by healthy demand for dairy (+5%) and red meat (+14%), alongside bumper kiwifruit (+7%) and apple crops. In June 2025, the Government set a goal for the food and fibre sector to double the value of exports by 2034. This first year's +6% is better than the pre-target +4.7% CAGR but less than the required +7.2% CAGR to meet their goal. (Interestingly, the goal was set in nominal terms, not real, inflation-adjusted terms.)

NZX50 HOLDS SOFTISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is has dipped -0.1% so far today, but with a weekly rise now of +1.0%. It is down -1.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another -1.0% so far today. Contact, Port of Tauranga, Spark and Summerset rose while there are declines for Gentrack, AirNZ, Serko and Ryman.

RYMAN GETS THE MAX
Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has successfully raised a full $150 mln in its six year bond issue (which will mostly be used to repay a bond that matures later in the year). The interest rate for this new bond will be 5.72%. (The bond it will be replacing had a coupon of 2.55% and a recent YTM of 4.32%.)

A RUSH FOR GOVT BOND SAFETY
There was a wildly successful NZGB tender today. $450 mln was offered in two maturities and that brought 102 bids worth $2.36 bln, more than 4 times oversubscribed. Only 25 bids won anything and that very strong demand drove yields lower for both offers. There was also a small $25 mln IIB, and even that got more than $100 mln in bids. We haven't seen a NZGB tender round this popular since November 2020 - and outside the pandemic period, never before.

EASING
In Australia, the Melbourne Institutes survey of inflation expectations dipped in June to 5.5% following a dip in May after they peaked at 5.9% in April. The June result was well below the 6.5% jump some expected. But remember, their fuel tax concession (50%) is expected to end at the end of this month. If it does, it could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. (April actual CPI came in at 4.2% and the May result will be released on June 24.) In contrast wage expectations have remained unchanged for the past seven months.

UNBOUND
In the Persian Gulf, US and Iranian forces are trading strikes for a second day. Worryingly, evidence shows that the US is targeting Iranian civilian water resources, a clear war crime.

SWAP RATES HOLD
After yesterday's rise, wholesale swap rates will probably be a tad firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.67% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.90%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.68% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.57%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -2 bps at 4.54%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.55%.

EQUITIES ALL LOWER
The local equity market is now down -0.6% from yesterday's levels with a late easing. The ASX200 is down -0.4%. Tokyo is has opened down -1.5%. Hong Kong is down -1.2% and Shanghai is down -0.5% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 down -1.6%.

OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices are up +US$2.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$91.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$94.50/bbl, up +US$2/bbl.

CARBON PRICE EASES
There were actually a few good late trades yesterday but the price dipped on the secondary market to $52/NZU. Very few trades so far today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS HARD AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$108/oz from yesterday at this time at US$4071/oz. Silver is little-changed at just under US$63.50/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.7 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,099 and up +1.3% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».