Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here so far either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PEACE DEAL?
Iran and the US have agreed a deal to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz, according to Pakistani negotiators. The NZ Government is pleased.
BARELY HANGING IN THERE
Actual retail sales via electron transactions were up +3.5% in May from the same month a year ago, but that was off a weak base. Still, that is their best in 2 years. Excluding fuel, the results are softer. On a seasonally adjusted basis, these same sales rose at a +1.7% rate. (CPI to March was 3.1%, just saying.)
GRIM READING
The services sector PSI slipped again, slipping deeper into contraction. Disconcertingly, weakness was widespread in May. All major PSI components recorded a sub-50 reading in the month. Activity/sales and new orders were the most downbeat.
SALES VOLUME SLUMP
May housing sales volumes were down -12.6% compared to May last year, the REINZ reported. That means 940 fewer houses were sold in May this year than last year, -246 fewer in Auckland, -140 fewer in Waikato, -101 fewer in Wellington, -53 fewer in Christchurch. National median prices eased slightly in May from April.
LOW TWOs
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in May rose from the prior month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average +2.2% increase in what suppliers charged in May 2026, compared with a year earlier. This compares to +2.0% in May 2025. Our own grocery cost tracking shows a +2.4% rise in prices shoppers paid between the end of May 2025 and the end of May 2026.
TOPPING OUT?
For the first time since September 2024, the number of commercial leases listed as available on the portal realestate.co.nz dipped last week after falls in Auckland Central (-51) and Christchurch (-41). These weekly shifts were offset everywhere else, especially in Wellington (+14) which is now +32% above year-ago levels.
NZX50 ISN'T GETTING A RELIEF RALLY BOUNCE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed, up +0.1% so far today, and with a weekly rise now of +1.6%. It is down -0.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2% so far today. AirNZ, SkyCity casino, Serko and Summerset drive broad-based NZX50 gains while Oceania, Meridian, F&P Healthcare and Contact retreat.
ON TRACK
The Heartland takeover of TSB has passed its first hurdle with due diligence completed. A Warranty and Indemnity (W&I) deed has been executed, and W&I insurance has been obtained by both parties. The proposed merger continues to target completion in December 2026, subject to satisfaction of the remaining conditions in the merger implementation agreement, including Taranaki community consultation by Toi Foundation, Toi Foundation trustee approval, Heartland shareholder approval and any necessary New Zealand and Australian regulatory approvals.
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: If the situation normalises in the Strait of Hormuz, then this tracking will fade from importance. We seem to have ten days more stock and in-transit now than at the start of this crisis.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 32.0 | 25.7 | 36.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 13.4 | 4.6 | 0.3 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 9 | 12.9 | 24.6 | 13.9 |
| Total NZ stock, June 10, 2026 | 14 | 58.3 | 55.0 | 50.3 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 33.7 | 26.3 | 31.4 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 24.4 | 20.3 | 13.9 |
| Total NZ stock, June 7, 2026 | 15 | 61.5 | 54.0 | 52.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 33.6 | 22.4 | 30.2 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 7 | 4.9 | 11.6 | 10.8 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 19.8 | 15.6 | 12.5 |
| Total NZ stock, June 3, 2026 | 15 | 58.3 | 49.6 | 53.5 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, May 31, 2026 | 13 | 55.6 | 40.3 | 54.6 |
| Total NZ stock, May 27, 2026 | 13 | 58.1 | 44.2 | 57.8 |
| Total NZ stock, May 20, 2026 | 13 | 53.1 | 49.1 | 53.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 17, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 55.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026 | 12 | 56.2 | 46.3 | 47.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026 | 12 | 59.0 | 45.2 | 50.2 |
| Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026 | 11 | 51.0 | 44.3 | 54.1 |
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
SWAP RATES RETREAT
Wholesale swap rates will likely be lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.68% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.78%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -7 bps at 2.58% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.44%, down -7 bps from this morning. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate down -8 bps at 4.47%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps at 4.42%.
EQUITIES GLOW HOTTER, EXCEPT THE NZX
The local equity market is now up +0.1% from Friday's level, the weakest of the markets we follow. The ASX200 is up +1.4%. Tokyo is has opened up an amazing +5.4%. Hong Kong is up +0.4% and Shanghai is up +1.0% at its open today. Singapore is up +1.1%. Wall Street futures are signaling that the S&P500 might open up +2.0% tomorrow.
OIL PRICES DROP
American oil prices are down -US$5 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now just on US$80/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just over US$83/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today. The price is holding at $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RECOVERS STRONGLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$102/oz from this morning, at US$4327/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just on US$70.50/oz.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning against the USD, now just on 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.1 and up +10 bps from this time morning.
BITCOIN FIRMS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,419 and up +2.8% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.
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4 Comments
"Our own grocery cost tracking shows a +2.4% rise in prices shoppers paid between the end of May 2025 and the end of May 2026."
Looking at the graph end of May 25 grocery basket was $199.82 whereas end of May 26 was $212.82....2.4%???
Show us the exact terms of the MOU.
Agreed - but also: 'If the situation normalises in the Strait of Hormuz, then this tracking will fade from importance.'
This is the kind of nonsense statement I so abhor from 'economics' journalism; when a temporary state is taken as permanent arrangement. A better appraisal is Taiwan, caught between a rising electro-state and an incumbent petro-state | interest.co.nz
Thinking on from the latter, we see the inevitable connection between oil and 'savings' - particularly those in US markets.
Was reading a scanned article about the every bubbly Sydney Ponzi from the Daily Telegraph. Some interesting takeaways on arguably the most bullet-proof Ponzi on the planet. Seems like the trendy areas are being hit hard. Not the slums.
Sydney home prices have crashed back to earth after years of runaway growth as a fledgling downturn rips through coastal areas and some of the city’s inner and middle-ring suburbs.
Analysis of exclusive PropTrack figures revealed median home values in many Sydney suburbs are now more than 10 per cent below their 2025 levels, with most falls concentrated about 15km from the CBD.
Suburbs in the Parramatta area such as Rydalmere and Dundas recorded some of the sharpest annual drops, with prices declining by an average of nearly 20 per cent.
Similar falls were recorded for units in upper north shore suburbs Turramurra and Killara. Other notable falls were recorded in Parramatta, Crows Nest, Mosman, Hunters Hill, Bellevue Hill, Surry Hills, Bronte, Bexley, Rozelle and Milsons Point.
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