Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank trimmed their 2 to 5 year TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
"EFFECTIVELY TRACKING SIDEWAYS"
Westpac says the data from its credit and debit card transactions shows a slight +0.4% spending lift in June, the first in 3 months, as fuel prices fell. One area boosted was travel spending. But they observe that although "spending did nudge higher in June, the broader trend is still flat, with spending levels effectively tracking sideways since February. A key reason for that lack of momentum in spending is the ongoing cost of living crisis, which continues to constrain spending levels."
TAKING A PUNT THAT "THINGS WILL COME RIGHT"
Realestate.co.nz is saying they are seeing more properties coming on to the market for rent. They claim anecdotal evidence is that families leaving for overseas don't wish to sell, seeing this as a bolt-hole for when they return. But more likely these are sellers who don't want to meet the current market where prices are falling and are choosing the hail-Mary strategy that things will come right in the future. Obviously they are ignoring the residential consent data that shows even more new housing will be built in the next two years, keeping supply pressure on the market elevated at the same time as migration levels stay low.
WHAT THE DATA SAYS
The latest data from realestate.co.nz shows rental stock levels and average rents are almost unchanged from a year ago - prospective tenants have plenty of choice.
EYES ON DAIRY AUCTION
If the quotes on the NZX dairy derivatives market are any indication (and history suggests this is quite variable), then tomorrow's full GDT dairy auction will be a weakish one. WMP may dip by -2%. SMP may hold, but butter could be -8% lower and AMF down by -5%. This will add to the downward pressure we have seen since the recent March high points. Is it enough to change the milk payout forecasts? Probably not yet but the likelihood is building.
NZX50 HOLDS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is unchanged so far today, with a weekly rise of +1.0%. It is now up +0.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up +7.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. Tourism Holdings, Gentrack, Skellerup and Tower gain while Kathmandu, Contact, Napier Port and Oceania retreat.
EXPANDED RESERVE GETS GOING
Two refurbished tanks at Northland’s Marsden Point which will store New Zealand’s strategic diesel supply are officially in use. Z Energy was selected to supply and manage the 90 million litre diesel reserve. Under the agreement, Z Energy owns and manages the diesel reserve but the Crown will control its release to the market if needed. The reserve does not count towards the company’s minimum stockholding obligation. So far, the first of two shipments of the diesel reserve recently arrived at the facility. The second is expected later this month.
FUEL SITUATION UPDATE
This is our final update, for the record. We will reprise this tracking if the situation gets tight again. (And it may do; see below.)
| Days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 34.4 | 28.4 | 28.9 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 7 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 22.7 |
| Total NZ stock, July 1, 2026 | 11 | 46.1 | 44.5 | 53.6 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.8 | 29.0 | 31.8 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 2.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 6 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 22.2 |
| Total NZ stock, June 28, 2026 | 11 | 49.1 | 47.5 | 56.0 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 32.3 | 22.0 | 26.7 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 11.2 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 13.1 |
| Total NZ stock, June 21, 2026 | 13 | 54.1 | 45.7 | 51.0 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, June 17, 2026 | 11 | 51.7 | 48.0 | 54.8 |
| Total NZ stock, June 14, 2026 | 12 | 54.8 | 51.4 | 57.2 |
| Total NZ stock, June 10, 2026 | 14 | 58.3 | 55.0 | 50.3 |
| Total NZ stock, June 7, 2026 | 15 | 61.5 | 54.0 | 52.7 |
| Total NZ stock, June 3, 2026 | 15 | 58.3 | 49.6 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, May 31, 2026 | 13 | 55.6 | 40.3 | 54.6 |
| Total NZ stock, May 27, 2026 | 13 | 58.1 | 44.2 | 57.8 |
| Total NZ stock, May 20, 2026 | 13 | 53.1 | 49.1 | 53.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 17, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 55.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026 | 12 | 56.2 | 46.3 | 47.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026 | 12 | 59.0 | 45.2 | 50.2 |
| Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026 | 11 | 51.0 | 44.3 | 54.1 |
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
JAPANESE HOUSEHOLDS FEEL BETTER
New data out today paints a much improved picture for Japanese household spending in May as households started to get their mojo back. And don't overlook that this was in the middle of the Trump Gulf War uncertainties.
MEASLES RISK CENTER
The United States has recorded 2,170 confirmed measles cases across 41 jurisdictions in 2026 so far, putting the country on track to easily exceed the 2,289 total cases from all of 2025. About 93% of these cases are in unvaccinated individuals. Only 12 cases were reported among international visitors. (In the same 2026 period New Zealand has reported six cases, Australia about 100 and again mostly in unvaxxed children.) The US rate is running at 1.6 cases per 100,000. NZ is running at 0.2 per 100,000, and Australia at 0.8 cases per 100,000.
SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.75% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.81% from yesterday at this time. The China 10 year bond rate unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +5 bps at 2.83% today and a new high since 1996. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.44%, down -3 bps. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -3 bps at 4.42%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.48%.
EQUITIES SOFT EXCEPT ON WALL STREET
The local equity market is marginally softer from yesterday, now down -0.1%. The ASX200 is down -0.2% so far. Tokyo has opened down -1.3%. Hong Kong has dipped -0.2% but Shanghai is down -1.1% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.8% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday session the S&P500 +0.7% higher. The Nasdaq had a +1.1% gain.
OIL PRICES SLIGHTLY FIRMER
American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$69/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$72.50/bbl. This is despite an attack on a tanker in the Persian Gulf on the Omani side as it was exiting.
CARBON PRICE MAGINALLY SOFTER
There have been a few trades popping back today but the price has softened slightly to $53.75/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$35/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4135/oz. Silver is down -75 USc at just on US$61.25/oz.
NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps against the USD from this time yesterday, now just on 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.8 and little-changed from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,273 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just over +/- 2.4%.
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3 Comments
"Chris Trotter’s dire warning of a centre-left election win."
AI can do some amazing things these days...
'Obviously they are ignoring the residential consent data that shows even more new housing will be built in the next two years, keeping supply pressure on the market elevated at the same time as migration levels stay low.'
So nothing to do with the fact that R/E right across the western world - indeed further - was a long-building Ponzi? Indeed, the only arena wide enough to pretend 'growth' of sufficient size to keep the growth system looking valid? Decades of pulling itself up by its bootstraps.
For a short while...
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