A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; floating rate rises start to come through, factory PMIs surge except in Wellington, truckometer lags, wool prices dip, swaps rise, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today for the long weekend (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac was the first to move its floating rates after the RBNZ OCR hike. They have been followed by Kiwibank and BNZ. More here. That story will be updated as other banks announce their rate changes. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac raised its bonus saver rate by +25 bps, its Simple Saver rate by +15 bps, and kept its Notice Saver rate unchanged. Kiwibank raised all its floating savings rates by +25 bps. Sharesies has also raised its rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GOING TO TRACK UP
The Reserve Bank’s first Official Cash Rate hike in three years divides bank economists, but all agree more increases are coming before the year is out. Some interest rate strategists say this prospect means it is a good time to fix loans that are on floating rates currently, advice being proposed to commercial borrowers.

FACTORIES NOW EXPANDING FASTER
According to the latest BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index, the manufacturing sector expanded significantly in June. New orders climbed the most since between April and June and the critical production measure is also rising strongly. The region with the strongest results is Otago, followed closely by Canterbury then Auckland. Wellington is the weakest by an unfortunate margin, in fact still contracting.

TRAFFIC ACTIVITY STLL CONSTRAINED
For all the other metrics that show an improving level of economic activity, ANZ's truckometer doesn't show that yet. The Light Traffic Index fell -0.5% in June from May and is down -0.4% from June a year ago and reflecting the impact of higher fuel prices. More positively, the Heavy Traffic Index\ rose +1.8% in the month, but is only up 1.3% from a year ago.

NEW SEASON DIPS
The first wool sale of the new season opened with a clear price adjustment down compared with the final sale of last season two weeks earlier, reports PGG Wrightson. Buyers were notably selective, with purchasing reflecting a tighter trading environment for crossbred types, particularly second-shear and lambs’ wool. After the strong price gains seen in recent months, some buyer resistance was to be expected, they said. However, when viewed in context, current price levels remain broadly in line with where the market was around five weeks ago. Mid-micron wool was the standout, with a quality offering attracting solid support from the trade.

BIG COUNCIL, BIG SPENDING CAPACITY
Auckland Council has now adopted its 2026/27 Annual Plan which has a $11 bln budget (up +0.5% from a year ago - yes, just +0.5%) requiring an average of +$320/year rates increase/property. $3.6 bln of that (40%) is directed to its capital budget (down -15% from the prior year) with $7.4 bln in its operating budget (up +10.5%). (see page 36 here.).

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.3% so far today to end our shortened week, with a weekly rise back up to +0.9%. It is now unchanged from six months ago. From a year ago it is up +7.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged so far today. There are losses from Serko, NZX, Kathmandu and Ryman, but Fletcher, Freightways, Argosy and Precinct lead the gainers.

SKI SEASON ARRIVING
Ski fields are opening, but still have variable conditions.

GOVERNMENT SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUTRIGHT BAN ON CRYPTO ATMS
The Government has walked back on a blanket legislative ban on crypto ATMS. In June 2025, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee said the Government wanted to ban crypto ATMs in order to make it more difficult for criminals to convert cash into cryptocurrencies, which are considered high-risk assets by the Government. But McKee announced on Thursday that the Government wants to take a “targeted and proportionate approach” instead of an outright ban. She says crypto ATMs presented “real risks” but policy analysis had found that they could also have “legitimate uses”. Instead of an outright ban, McKee says the Government will establish “regulation-making powers” that will allow the Government to restrict cash transactions for virtual assets, although a specific timeline for this was not disclosed.

MINTER ELLISON SAYS NEW AML/CFT LEVY STRUCTURE EXEMPTS ‘SIGNIFICANT NUMBER’ OF ENTITIES
Following Cabinet’s approval of the final structure of the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) levy, MinterEllisonRuddWatts says the Government’s decision to limit the levy to medium-high and high-risk sectors will mean a “significant number” of reporting entities won’t contribute to the cost of the AML/CFT system. “The decision to apportion the greatest share of the levy burden to banks and deposit takers (85%) reflects the Government’s assessment as the highest-risk sector and their relative capacity to absorb costs,” the law firm wrote on Thursday. Of the other 15% of the levy, casinos, TAB and Entain are contributing 9%, while Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) and Designated Non-Financial Businesses and Professions (DNFBPs) are contributing the final 6%. The industry levy is intended to support the Government’s AML/CFT National Strategy 2026-2030. “Those within scope may question whether their sector classification is appropriate, given the financial consequences of that categorisation,” MinterEllisonRuddWatts says.

STEP-CHANGE IN RENT HIKES
In Australia, rents are rising faster, especially house rents. The increase was both stronger than seasonal norms and relatively abrupt in some cities, pointing to a step-change in pricing behaviour rather than a gradual tightening in market conditions.

LOW & MANAGEABLE
China's consumer price inflation annual rate eased to +1.0% in June from +1.2% in both April and May, slightly below market expectations of +1.1%, and the softest increase in three months. Beef prices rose +4.2% in the year, lamb prices by +6.0%. Dairy products fell -1.7% over the same period.

HIGH & TOPPING OUT
China’s producer prices rose +4.1% in June from a year ago, faster than the +3.9% rise in the previous month and matching market forecasts. It was the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the steepest pace since July. Industrial Producer Purchase Prices rose +6.4% led by higher copper prices (+21.6%). But we should also note that the June change from May was a slight -0.2% dip, suggesting the impetus may have passed now.

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be up sharply today, especially at the short end (+8 to +10 bps?). Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.74% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.90% from yesterday at this time. The China 10 year bond rate down -1 bp at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.87% today but still near its high since 1996. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.59%, up another +4 bps. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +8 bps at 4.51%.) The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.58%, still their highest since mid-May.

EQUITIES MIXED & VARIABLE
The local equity market is firmer from yesterday, now up +0.2% so far. However, the ASX200 is down -0.7% so far. Tokyo has opened up +2.0%. Hong Kong has dipped -0.2% and Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 -0.3% lower. The Nasdaq had a +0.2% gain.

BUY THE MYSTERY, SELL THE HISTORY
It might be worth noting that it has been four weeks since the over-hyped SpaceX IPO which launched at US$160/shar in June 12. It peaked at US$202 and has fallen since, now at US$148/share and a -8% fall from its listing, a -26% drop from the hyped highs. It's really just a meme stock. Meanwhile Nvidia is down -2.2% over the past month, down -13.5% from its May 14 peak. And while we are at it, here are the one month price changes for a selection of big US tech stocks: Apple +3.9%, Amazon -0.7%, Google -0.7%, Meta +3.0%, Micron no-change, Microsoft -6.9%, and Oracle -34%. Investors seem generally wary of these valuations. How does your KiwiSaver/fund manager think about their holdings if they have you exposed to any of these?

OIL PRICES RISE +4%
American oil prices are up another +US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$74.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$79/bbl and up +US$3. This is after more attacks on tankers in a widening escalation.

CARBON PRICE LITTLE CHANGED
There have been many trades today but the price has firmed only marginally to $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$59/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4066/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 at just on US$58/oz.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar has risen +20 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.1 and up +20 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN DOWN AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$61,748 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.2%.

MATARIKI
Friday, July 10 is a public holiday in New Zealand, Matariki. We will not be publishing our Breakfast Briefing or a 4pm Review. But we will be publishing other articles and updating our data resources. Our Weekend Briefing and weekly auction report will be available as normal on Saturday.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».