A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; business confidence firms in a fragile way, migration stalled in May, tourist arrivals still trending up, swaps up, NZX50 down, oil jumps, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). There is no escaping Trump's mistakes today with oil up, interest rates up and stocks down in reactions to the policy failings.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has confirmed its +25 bps rise to its floating rates. Avanti Finance also raised its floating rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ's savings accounts will rise by +25 bps, although its Serious Saver won't get there until August 1. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THERE WAS A FRAGILE RECOVERY IN Q2-2026
NZIER says their Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the ‘fragile’ economic recovery in June quarter was helped by the easing oil crisis at the time, but warns that geopolitical uncertainty and the upcoming election will weigh on firms over the coming months. And firms are dealing with high cost inflation pressures, so these risks are high. The latest geopolitical backdrop suggests these may not ease soon, as expected in this survey.

POPULATION LEAKAGE
Population growth from migration stalled in May, with slightly more people leaving the country long term than arrived here. Statistics NZ estimates 9013 people arrived in this country long term in May, while 9111 departed long term, giving a net loss of -99 people for the month. But leakage in a May month isn't especially unusual.

TOURIST ARRIVALS STILL NOT BACK TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
May is typically one of the lowest months for tourist arrivals, and this year was no exception. We welcomed 203,300 visitors in the month, more than May 2025's 190,600 but less than May 2019's 219,600 - so still -7.3% below pre-pandemic levels. (The peak month is December with 503,000 arrivals.) More visitors are coming from Australia however. But we are not traveling as much. We go to Australia and much as they come to us, and we are going to Fiji, Japan and the Philippines more. But we are going to the US and the UK much less.

ANOTHER SHOCK JOCK LINES UP FOR POLITICAL POWER
First it was Michael Laws, now Paul Henry is also to contest the next election, for ACT, after considering the tilt while living in Trump's America (Arizona). Another rich white guy claiming to be anti-establishment and 'for the battler'. The presumption is media star power will translate into votes. ACT will be hoping those attributes will work here.

NZX50 SLIDES AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% so far today, now with a weekly fall of -1.0%. It is also down -1.0% from six months ago. But from a year ago it is now up +4.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% so far today. Skellerup, Kiwi Property, Tower, and Stride Property are the top gainers while Auckland Airport, a2 Milk, Serko and Meridian are the main decliners.

MILESTONE
The Tauhei Solar Farm is now putting energy into the grid. This is New Zealand’s largest solar farm to be constructed and connected to the electricity market to date, and capable of generating enough renewable electricity to power approximately 35,000 average households. It is located in Te Aroha, Waikato, east of Morrinsville.

LESS PESSIMISTIC I
In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey became less pessimistic in July, mainly because their fuel price pressures eased - and their interest rate fears moderated as well. Job loss concerns eased too. But consumers remained gloomy about the economy overall and that meant they don't think now is a good time to buy a major appliance. And, although it recovered somewhat from very low levels, Aussies are still very uncertain where their housing market is going.

LESS PESSIMISTIC II
The story was quite similar for business sentiment in July as reported by the NAB survey. However, this one reported a sharper-than-expected improvement even if it is still negative. Price pressures also moderated, with input price growth slowing to its weakest pace since February and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years.

SINGAPORE POSTS A STRONG RESULT
Singapore said its economic activity was +5.7% higher in Q2-2026 than in the same quarter in 2025. While this was a bit less than the +6.3% first quarter result, it was above the expected +5.5% outcome.

MUCH BIGGER SURPLUS
China said its June exports were up a remarkable +27% from the same month a year ago, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of the expected inflationary effects of upcoming producer price inflation from the Middle East shocks, and by China's push to export cars, and far more than the +18% expected. It also said its imports were +36% higher than a year ago, driven by crude oil imports. That all meant that it had a near record trade surplus of +US$126 bln in June, only exceeded by the January 2025 +US$136 bln in that month.

SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates will likely be up sharply today is a rising trend. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.85% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from yesterday at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is little-changed at 2.76% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.71%, up another +6 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +3 bps at 4.61%.) The UST 10yr yield is up another +3 bps at 4.62% and their highest since mid-May.

EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market is lower from yesterday, now down -0.8% so far. And the ASX200 is down -0.4% so far. Tokyo has opened down -0.8%. Hong Kong has dropped -0.5% and Shanghai is also down -0.5% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.6% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday down -0.8% on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -1.6%.

OIL PRICES JUMP
American oil prices are up another +US$5 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$79.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$84.50/bbl and up +US$5.50. This is all after more escalation in the Golf of Hormuz.

CARBON PRICE RETREATS
There has been modest trading so far today but the price has fallen -$2 to $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$57/oz from yesterday, now at US$4011/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just on US$57.50/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar has firmed against the USD from this time yesterday, now just on 57.8 USc and up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 83.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.8 and up +20 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,486 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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