Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). There is no escaping Trump's mistakes today with oil up, interest rates up and stocks down in reactions to the policy failings.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has confirmed its +25 bps rise to its floating rates. Avanti Finance also raised its floating rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ's savings accounts will rise by +25 bps, although its Serious Saver won't get there until August 1. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THERE WAS A FRAGILE RECOVERY IN Q2-2026
NZIER says their Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the ‘fragile’ economic recovery in June quarter was helped by the easing oil crisis at the time, but warns that geopolitical uncertainty and the upcoming election will weigh on firms over the coming months. And firms are dealing with high cost inflation pressures, so these risks are high. The latest geopolitical backdrop suggests these may not ease soon, as expected in this survey.
POPULATION LEAKAGE
Population growth from migration stalled in May, with slightly more people leaving the country long term than arrived here. Statistics NZ estimates 9013 people arrived in this country long term in May, while 9111 departed long term, giving a net loss of -99 people for the month. But leakage in a May month isn't especially unusual.
TOURIST ARRIVALS STILL NOT BACK TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
May is typically one of the lowest months for tourist arrivals, and this year was no exception. We welcomed 203,300 visitors in the month, more than May 2025's 190,600 but less than May 2019's 219,600 - so still -7.3% below pre-pandemic levels. (The peak month is December with 503,000 arrivals.) More visitors are coming from Australia however. But we are not traveling as much. We go to Australia and much as they come to us, and we are going to Fiji, Japan and the Philippines more. But we are going to the US and the UK much less.
ANOTHER SHOCK JOCK LINES UP FOR POLITICAL POWER
First it was Michael Laws, now Paul Henry is also to contest the next election, for ACT, after considering the tilt while living in Trump's America (Arizona). Another rich white guy claiming to be anti-establishment and 'for the battler'. The presumption is media star power will translate into votes. ACT will be hoping those attributes will work here.
NZX50 SLIDES AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% so far today, now with a weekly fall of -1.0%. It is also down -1.0% from six months ago. But from a year ago it is now up +4.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% so far today. Skellerup, Kiwi Property, Tower, and Stride Property are the top gainers while Auckland Airport, a2 Milk, Serko and Meridian are the main decliners.
MILESTONE
The Tauhei Solar Farm is now putting energy into the grid. This is New Zealand’s largest solar farm to be constructed and connected to the electricity market to date, and capable of generating enough renewable electricity to power approximately 35,000 average households. It is located in Te Aroha, Waikato, east of Morrinsville.
LESS PESSIMISTIC I
In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey became less pessimistic in July, mainly because their fuel price pressures eased - and their interest rate fears moderated as well. Job loss concerns eased too. But consumers remained gloomy about the economy overall and that meant they don't think now is a good time to buy a major appliance. And, although it recovered somewhat from very low levels, Aussies are still very uncertain where their housing market is going.
LESS PESSIMISTIC II
The story was quite similar for business sentiment in July as reported by the NAB survey. However, this one reported a sharper-than-expected improvement even if it is still negative. Price pressures also moderated, with input price growth slowing to its weakest pace since February and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years.
SINGAPORE POSTS A STRONG RESULT
Singapore said its economic activity was +5.7% higher in Q2-2026 than in the same quarter in 2025. While this was a bit less than the +6.3% first quarter result, it was above the expected +5.5% outcome.
MUCH BIGGER SURPLUS
China said its June exports were up a remarkable +27% from the same month a year ago, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of the expected inflationary effects of upcoming producer price inflation from the Middle East shocks, and by China's push to export cars, and far more than the +18% expected. It also said its imports were +36% higher than a year ago, driven by crude oil imports. That all meant that it had a near record trade surplus of +US$126 bln in June, only exceeded by the January 2025 +US$136 bln in that month.
SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates will likely be up sharply today is a rising trend. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.85% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from yesterday at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is little-changed at 2.76% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.71%, up another +6 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +3 bps at 4.61%.) The UST 10yr yield is up another +3 bps at 4.62% and their highest since mid-May.
EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market is lower from yesterday, now down -0.8% so far. And the ASX200 is down -0.4% so far. Tokyo has opened down -0.8%. Hong Kong has dropped -0.5% and Shanghai is also down -0.5% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.6% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday down -0.8% on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -1.6%.
OIL PRICES JUMP
American oil prices are up another +US$5 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$79.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$84.50/bbl and up +US$5.50. This is all after more escalation in the Golf of Hormuz.
CARBON PRICE RETREATS
There has been modest trading so far today but the price has fallen -$2 to $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$57/oz from yesterday, now at US$4011/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just on US$57.50/oz.
NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar has firmed against the USD from this time yesterday, now just on 57.8 USc and up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 83.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.8 and up +20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,486 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.
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37 Comments
Hands up those who thought (?) that we were 'going back to normal'...
Depends on your view of "normal". Forever war sadly seems quite normal, so to me, a resumption of the hostilities between the US and Iran is certainly not a surprise.
get some flax seeds into your paleo-keto influencer 4x4 TD ute - lol
battery cars will take over . TCO
Xero’s CEO Sukhinder Singh Cassidy has sold all of her ordinary shares in Xero for approx AUD2.2m. She says the sale was to meet personal tax obligations rather than reflecting any change in her view of Xero’s prospects.
Stock price down 59% past 12 months and 39% this year.
https://www.capitalbrief.com/briefing/xero-shares-drop-as-ceo-sells-2m-…
Yep, I heard about this, it's certainly not confidence inspiring.
Look on the bright side Dr Y. Even though Rocket Lab is down approx 50% from all-time high in May, still up a possibly 4,150% if you had timed your purchase right in 2024.
Spacex is coming in to land....
Yep, I heard about this, it's certainly not confidence inspiring.
‘Never a good look’: Xero CEO share sale spooks investors
Sukhinder Singh Cassidy has offloaded all of her shares in the company, amid a plan to adjust her remuneration to be less reliant on the struggling share price.
"We cannae take on any mere water cap'n, the ships gooin doon!" (Scottish accent)
"Bail out, overboard men!"
Big moves in short term swaps. RBNZ will (or should?) be sweating bullets.
The Oct 25 - present trend in short term swaps looks to be establishing itself and may require a much higher OCR to tame. Why? These swaps are indicative that inflation outside the RBNZ mandated band isn’t going away on its on, nor in a hurry.
There are more concrete indications
:)
Major retailers and manufacturers pleading with Trump for tariff exemptions include Nestle, BJ's Wholesale Club, Mars, McCormick, Ford, Volvo, Whirlpool, Electrolux, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Panasonic, E-Bay, Intel.
And Nike expecting to receiving a whopping $1 billion in refunds.
US taxpayers should be livid. They have paid higher costs for items, as cost increases were passed down to the consumer.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/tariff-exemptions-ford-nestle-and-…
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/nike-expects-nearly-1b-in-ieepa-ta…
If they were paying the real cost, for finite or limited-supply resources, they'd be more than livid.
They be bereft of said resources.
Every litre of oil our current societal set-up burns, can never be burned again. By any future generation, vs our one.
So what's a litre of fuel really worth, vis-a-vis modernity's sustainability?
A nearly infinite number of proxy-tokens, is the answer.
Yet we're screaming even at this shorted rate.
This is true Power. But we all have our weaknesses. Like the Greens wearing expensive North Face jackets and Japanese designer labels and Maori Party leaders with their flash Nike sneakers.
any italian pin-striped suits to go with the communist goods and services sir?
Vietnamese and tailored. Much cheaper and better food nearby.
If Laws and Henry are white shock jocks how on earth do you describe Roastbusters Willie Jackson andf John Tamihere?! Slagging off victimised poor white girls on live radio can get you Broadcasting Minister and Minister of Youth Affairs on the other side of the house, so he probably chose the wrong party.
A glaring example of “whatever it takes” for sure. An episode such as that should have brought an abrupt end to any prospect of any political future. But it didn’t which to my mind implicates those that didn’t act accordingly.
Ultimately there is only selfishness, or selflessness.
Banging on about right vs left is just self-justification via otherising, 9 times out of 10.
All I do know, is that the further someone appears to be 'Right', the less likely they are the have empathy with others, the more likle they are to be arrogant, and that psychopathy is probably more common at that end of the spectrum too.
There is a heavy dose of arrogance the further you go left too - arrogance has no political boundaries
This election will be a good telling of how much NZ is starting to see through the bull that is the leadup to an election. I get the feeling more and more people are wising up and educating themselves a bit more at least, after two successive governments providing practically nothing for their taxpayer dollar.
Private credit issues in Aussie rising to surface.
Former Macquarie Group investment banker's debts have risen from $131 million to a staggering $667 million, according to his bankruptcy trustee.
Creditors include some of Australia’s largest private credit funds, such as Metrics Credit Partners and Fortress Loans, along with a series of wealthy families.
SV Partners’ report also catalogues an extensive collection of luxury assets formerly controlled by Jean-Dominique Huynh, with an estimated value approaching $8 million.
In addition, the trustee has also found significant gambling-related expenditure, including payments exceeding $395,000 to Crown Sydney Gaming, approximately $258,000 to Crown Melbourne and more than $170,000 to Marina Bay Sands. Huynh’s bank records also indicate that he spent at least $2.2 million on betting activities in the two years before his bankruptcy.
SV Partners’ report also catalogues an extensive collection of luxury assets formerly controlled by Huynh, with an estimated value approaching $8 million. This included multiple Rolex and Patek Philippe watches – such as the $660,000 Patek Philippe Nautilus Diamond and $500,000 Patek Philippe Nautilus green dial – along with six racehorses worth $500,000 combined and a $900,000 whisky collection.
He also owned a Ferrari SF90, which costs $1.3 million when bought new, with a number plate 3COMMA and had put down a deposit to buy the hypercar Koenigsegg Jesko, which has a starting price of about $4.3 million. According to images Huynh circulated to people he borrowed money from, he had travelled to Europe to test drive a Jesko and met with Christian von Koenigsegg.
Hmmm intriguing. Reads more of dirty money being laundered than someone taking advantage of the private credit boom. The question then is, where did the dirty cash come from...
but they called it building skills?
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/big-tech-is-turning-on-the-ai-giants-th…
In a short essay posted on social media titled “The Reverse Information Paradox”, Nadella warned that companies around the world are essentially paying twice to use the AI models built by the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic, although Nadella did not name the pair.
First, companies are paying up for tokens, the little units of AI usage that power these AI models. But second, Nadella says companies must effectively pay a second time by feeding in their own proprietary knowledge to make the AI tokens useful. “The better you want the model to perform, the more of that knowledge you have to feed it!” Nadella says.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/with-real-growth-near-zero-ai-is-not-eno…
Property prices tumbled and are now at a 20-year low, in inflation-adjusted terms. In new but half-empty developments, including a faux Venice in the north-east, flats can be rented for $US120 a month. Bloomberg
China’s growth rate has dropped below the rest of the world, including the US. In real terms, independent estimates now put China’s growth in real terms closer to zero than to the official target of 4.5 to 5 per cent.
Even by the official numbers, AI is not providing a lift big enough to overcome other forces weighing on China, including its shrinking workforce, rising indebtedness, a broken property market, the revival of a meddlesome regulatory state and the resulting exodus of capital and people.
China’s population also peaked in 2021. Last year, births hit a record low, and deaths hit a record high. The working-age population is on pace to shrink by 75 million every decade this century.
Any one else think the global economy is cratering here?
She’s sure looking shaky
Germany is having a mare, and Japan is linked to china big time
The US has backed themselves into a corner, with no viable offramp I can see.
If the US doesn’t secure the strait, it signals to Saudi Arabia, UAE and other gulf producers that the old security for dollars model is dead. These nations will naturally pivot toward Beijing in a transition to the multipolar petroyuan system.
If the US cannot secure the Gulf, they cannot secure the petrodollar. And if they can’t secure the petrodollar, their ability to finance their massive debt pile is placed in extreme jeopardy
Great post.
Yep, they're dying hegemony, with repercussions.
For NZ, too. Most folk only think about one thing at a time, on an all else being equal basis. But what is unfolding is Systemic - not only are folk struggling to meet both obligations and needs; their equity is in overseas markets, presumably (does anyone know how much? It seems to be unasked) which has implication, particuarly if the USD falters.
I think the idea of earning more as one gets older and having more and more comfort and physical things across the lifespan, is a baked in assumption that has spanned many generations, but more baked in when we found more energy to utilise to increase living standards. the thought to most, that they may not get a pension, their investments may never grow, and they won't be able to derive passive income so easily, is so far flung to most that they psychologically rebuff it as hocum. This is one thing, however the mere thought of this being present en-mass is useful at a population scale for future change.
Thank you, Time Lord - that is the most on-to-it comment, regarding the demise of the petrodollar, that I have read here on ICNZ for quite some time.
The Trump admin's collective idiocy has turned out to be the greatest single catalyst for global dedollarisation imaginable.
We now see historically establishment supporters of USD reserve currency supremacy, such as Kathleen Tyson*, increasingly contemplating the likelihood that the emerging ruling trade balance settlement currency is going to be physical allocated gold.
*(Kathleen Tyson - Founder and Chief Executive of Peacemaker Global - she started her career as a central banker at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. She was a founder member of the Systemic Risks Studies Group and moved to London to supervise the London Stock Exchange, Clearstream, Euroclear, and Swift, and to oversee legal and operational reforms to digitalise UK securities. She globalised US dollar liquidity with Clearstream, co-inventing Triparty Repo (now $10.2 trillion in daily secured interbank lending) and adding clearing and settlement of US Treasuries, bonds and equities to the Luxembourg depository)
https://www.pacemaker.global/about
To me this trend is inevitable anyway, and for the entire raft of reasons that I pointed out a few days ago in the link below...
https://www.interest.co.nz/users/colin-maxwell
.... also because half of the world's population reside in South East Asia, and historically they have always been prone to protecting their savings/wealth in PMs.
Increasingly the West has provided them, and their authorities, every reason in the world to no longer trust the USD as the major component of their reserve portfolios.
When more and more of their bilateral trade is denominated in their own local currencies, only the trade balance portion needs to be settled out in reserves. This wii be conducted less and less in the traditional way, via western currencies, that run the risk of both confiscation, and dilution in purchasing power.
Just in the last few days the new gold trading platform opened in Hong Kong with vaulting space for 2000 tons of allocated gold. Commercial banks can rent space in this massive vault located at the International Airport, with the first one being JPMC booking 200 tons of space.
Tyson states...":... the idea is that they will basically eat the LBMA's lunch by being a more reputable, better regulated, and more reliable venue to conduct business in gold.
It is 100% physical vaulted gold - you cannot trade paper here - in contrast to the LBMA where paper is traded ~50-60x more than physical. Also, pretty much all of the US based COMEX consists of paper trades, that never settle in gold. In HK it will be one day or same day settlement with everything about the facility being much more tightly managed.
Also, although it is the HK government behind this facility rather than the PRC govt, it has a direct connection to the Chinese gold corridor based in Shanghai. Customers can pay for the gold in USD, Euros, HK Dollars or yuan, receiving 100% audited, assayed,
physical delivery within one day.
Gold is a big part of where we are going in the future, if only because 4 billion people say so."
... end quote...
Perhaps the two most salient signs, that the empire is already broken, is the fact that the largest asset on the Federal Govt balance sheet is student debt - also, for five out of the last 6 months the largest single export item, from the US, is physical gold.
That is helping (for anyone who isn't looking) to disguise the fact that the trade deficit is even more of a disaster than the RoW is lead to believe.
Plus the RoW is finally flicking up to the cold hard reality that the US public debt figure is remarkably numerically close to the amount that they have spent on their forever-wars, making the close to $40 trillion public debt, essentially monetized war debt... wait for it... debt that they have themselves been buying..... meaning, that they have been financing their own victimhood... arguably THE most compelling reason of all, for them all to revise their reserve asset portfolios.
Yes Colin, the east has seen the writing on the wall for some time now. They have been in full swing, moving physical gold from west to east while building alternative digital payment rails.
Meanwhile the west still remains groggy under the hegemonic spell of America. But this spell is losing its magic as the status quo fractures under the orange chaos agent. As you say, the empire is already broken. Judging by history, we can expect the empire to deploy every financial and military lever at it’s disposal to delay the inevitable shift toward a multipolar world.
I doubt it will be apocalyptic in the way you describe it. The pipeline building activity is really ramping up, so that the Hormuz and Yemen chokepoints can be avoided. Oman will become a new and major loading point, east of Hormuz. And Syria a new major loading point in the Mediterranean. I suspect these will both be operational with a year. They won't be the only ones.
fossil boom is booming - this is it.
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