Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank has raised its savings and notice account rates today following the OCR change last week. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
WHERE DOES ASB SEE TERM DEPOSIT INTEREST RATES GOING?
ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown says based on its current economic forecasts, ASB believes longer-term deposit rates will remain around their long-term averages for the rest of 2026. But if the Reserve Bank continues to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR), ASB expects the shorter deposit terms to face some “upward pressure”, with a move back towards (but not above) the long-term averages. Where rates will go beyond 2026 is more uncertain, Tennent-Brown says, but it’ll be dependent on a range of local and global factors. “We think the bias will be up for the shortest terms and expect the longer-term rates to remain around current levels,” he says.
INFLATION IMPULSE EASES
A range of data monitoring consumer prices was released today, overall indicating easing inflation for these items. But not universally. Petrol and diesel prices saw monthly drops, but there are now two years of non-stop milk price hikes. Stats NZ's latest Selected Price Indexes figures cover food, fuel, travel, electricity and rents. Food price rises eased to a 16 month low in this data.
FUEL REFINER MARGINS ELEVATED, KEEPING PUMP PRICES HIGH
This also data confirms falling retail prices for fuel. But the best way to assess fuel cost inflation is to section out the uncontrollable bits, like the crude oil prices, exchange rates, and taxes. Then you are left with the portion that the oil companies themselves control. When you do this you make a surprising revelation (or unsurprising, depending on your POV). The oil company component is staying very high; in fact still at record high territory. It really never reverted after the pandemic period. No wonder Ampol was keen to may Infratil a premium price for Z Energy. Some of this will be foreign refiners margins (now that Marsden Point isn't doing any of this locally). And you can see that in the MBIE monitoring. By the way ExxonMobil and Chevron both operate large Singapore refineries. BP and Chevron operate refineries in South Korea. Both regions supply New Zealand.
RENTS FLAT, WHATEVER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT
Data from the Tenancy Bond Service shows that rents have remain flat in the biggest urban centres, with some minor growth in other regions. The national median rent increased by +$5 a week in the year to May, declined by -$5 in Wellington and was unchanged in Auckland and Canterbury. This was broadly in line with the StatsNZ June rent data that showed a year-on-year rise overall of +0.2% for 'stock' rents.
$1.7 BLN & THREE YEARS LATE
Two new Cook Strait ferries are now scheduled arrive in 2029. They are to be named 'Kupe' and 'Cook', to be operated by SOE KiwiRail, and will compete with the private Bluebridge alternatives. The new vessels will cost $1.4 bln, be owned by the Crown, be "rail enabled", and built by Chinese state-backed shipbuilder Guangzhou Shipyard International. The original I-Rex Korean ferries were due to cost $551 million, with the delivery of the two ferries set to occur in 2025 and 2026. Portside infrastructure cost was problematic however. This time portside infrastructure is scheduled to cost $300 mln. This new complete deal will cost taxpayers $1.7 bln and deliver in 2029, or so they say. All that has been released on terms and specs is here.
NZX50 FLAT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is flat so far today, with a -1.2% weekly retreat. It is up +0.3% from six months ago. But from a year ago it is now only up +5.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% so far today. SkyCity casino, Gentrack, Property for Industry and Vulcan Steel lead the gains while Goodman, Napier Port, Heartland and Turners are the main decliners.
VERY CHEAP RENEWABLES
Fine weather, modest demand and flush renewables electricity generation as seen renewables supply 98% of all electricity today - and at record low prices. If this is what heavy renewables investment delivers, you have to wonder if investors will have second thoughts about these projects when prices are this low.
BIRD FLU UPDATE
Update: A second case of bird flu has been found in Wairarapa.
MUCH SLOWER GROWTH
Singapore's export growth fell back sharply and unexpectedly in June. Electronics exports remained elevated, but non-electronics exports were unusually weak in the month. Their big decliners were for petrochemicals, food, and non-monetary gold. Trade with the US was especially hard hit.
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.87% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is also up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.91%. The China 10 year bond rate down -1 bp at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +4 bps at 2.73% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.67%, down -1 bp from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -3 bps at 4.65%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bps at 4.55%.
EQUITIES BEST LOCALLY
The local equity market is holding from yesterday, now up another minor +0.1% so far, one of the only gains among the equity markets we monitor. But the ASX200 is down -0.7%. Tokyo has opened down a massive -4.4%. Hong Kong is down -1.7% and Shanghai is down -1.8% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday down -0.4% on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -1.5%.
OIL PRICES DIP SLIGHTLY
American oil prices are down -50 USc from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$79.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$85/bbl..
CARBON PRICE STABLE
There have been few trades so far today but the price has firmed very slightly to $54.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. (For reference, the EU carbon price has been rising since early March 2026 and is now €81.20/tonne, equivalent to NZ$157/tonne. In Australia their carbon credits are $37.60/tonne - NZ$45.50. In the US, they are US$30, or NZ$51.50.)
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$53/oz from yesterday, now at US$3978/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just over US$57/oz and its lowest since November 2025.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from this time yesterday, now just on 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.2 and little-changed from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,409 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.2%.
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Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
6 Comments
'They're begging for a deal"
"We're going to keep bombing them until they come to the table".
One of these statements is not like the other...
And neither have any actual relevance to the war, simply a means to manipulate.
Is there such a thing as a "long term average" for term deposit rates? Rates go up and down. Do we look back to the 80s for 10-20% rates, is that what he's expecting? But of a nothing statement from the ASB. if the RBNZ raises rates he expects upward pressure on rates! shocking, big call! nobody else would expect that right? And beyond that "things are uncertain", well thanks for the advice i feel well informed now.
I've just watched the Fran O'Sullivan moderated episode of the HCF, publicising their upcoming book.
They all deserve a rocket. She particularly.
Thinking from first principles is so easy - why do they all choose to report a fully-clothed Emperor?
Fran O'Sullivan is recognized as a "China expert" now.
https://nzchinacouncil.org.nz/2026/06/fran-osullivan-awarded-for-outsta…
Plenty of deja vu this week. Y'day I remember commenting on interest dot co about how Rocket Lab had become the stock most owned on Sharesies and suggested the good and bad cf owning Air NZ.
Another big tumble for RKLB last night - 11% - so now down 55% from all-time high in May. I think this kind of rough and tumble is good for younger people, despite what the financial advisors and boomers say.
I also commented about how the likes of Aldi have zero interest in Aotearoa because ROI and economies of scale don't stack up. It's emerged that the NZ govt via NZTE have been door knocking regionally and globally for suitable companies with no real success. It's not really in their job descriptions: they're schmoozers, not hustlers. And a tough sell anyway. Like selling off-the-plan apartments in Aotearoa. Maybe even harder.
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