A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes, eyes on mortgage fraud threat, PPI costs rise faster than prices, dairy prices firm, swaps ease, NZX firms, NZD eases, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

WHAT IS SHIFTING BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES
Here is a review of where benchmark interest rates may be headed, and why. But please note it is 'opinion', and is certainly not 'advice'. It only deals with the big background forces shifting rates. We will never suggest what you should do because that would be 'advice'. Finding those options involves work. You will often be better off seeking professional advice. Just make sure you pay the adviser you choose. If they are paid by someone else, like the product provider they represent, they actually work for them (no matter what they claim or the FMA boxes they tick).

MORTGAGE FRAUD A GROWING ISSUE
Aussie regulator AUSTRAC said it has 'uncovered coordinated mortgage fraud and systemic weaknesses across Australia’s lending sector'. NZ regulators are also spending more time on mortgage fraud cases.

CHANGING THE GUARD
ANZ New Zealand is set to shake-up its local leadership team as Ben Kelleher prepares to succeed Antonia Watson as CEO.

MORE THAN $100 MLN OPEN BANKING PAYMENTS PROCESSED IN JUNE
Payments NZ says open banking payments via users of its API centre standards topped 362,000 in June, a 19% rise from May. The total value of those payments was more than $100 million, with nearly 200,000 customers authorising at least one open banking payment. It says on comparable early-stage measures, open banking adoption is growing faster than it did in the United Kingdom and Australia at similar stages of development.

PRODUCERS ABSORB MORE COSTS THAN THEY CAN PASS ON, BUT SOME ARE [BIG] WINNERS
The June quarter PPI data shows producers faced input costs up +4.1% but only passed on +3.2% to their clients overall. But these cost increases were quite different depending on the sector. For example, from a year ago mining costs were up +9.2%, plastics manufacturing was up +12.7%, furniture costs up +12.8%, road transport costs up +16.7% and rail transport up +20.8%. However, local government costs rose +3.5%, central government costs rose 2.8%. Electricity producer costs were down -27.4%. There are large contrasts with the pass on pricing too. These same sets show mining prices were up +37.2%, plastics manufacturing was up +7.2%, furniture prices were up +3.2%, road transport prices were up +11.9% and rail transport up +5.0%. However, local or central government price changes weren't disclosed on an output basis, except for 'farm expenses' (see next item).

FARM EXPENSES JUMP
In the June quarter, sharply higher fuel costs hit farms hard. Overall fuel was up more than +52% from a year ago. But it wasn't the only sharp rise. Fertiliser was up +18%, electricity was up +6.2%, and "Local and central government rates and fees" were up +12.7% on that same year-on-year basis. Apart from the pandemic period, these cost increases were the largest since the GFC for all farms except dairy farms. Horticulture took the hardest hit.

DAIRY PRICES UP
The overnight full dairy auction came in better than the futures market had signaled, up +2.3% from the prior full event. This was largely driven by the milk powder gains with WMP up +3.0% and SMP up +7.6%. However most of the milk fats fell. The overall gains in NZD were slightly better, up +2.6%. But despite this recent turn higher, prices are still almost -9% lower than year-ago levels, even if they are up almost +10% from the start of 2026.

NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.4% today and up +1.3% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +3.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far today. EBOS, Fletcher, Spark and Mercury rally while a2 Milk, Turners, Investore Property and Property for Industry fall.

MIRZA TO LEAD NZX
The NZX board today announced the appointment of Hishaam Mirza as NZX Chief Executive. Mirza is described as "a highly regarded financial services executive with a successful career in investments and corporate development". He has worked both locally and overseas with IBM, BP, Lazard, EDF Energy, and NZ Super.

RETURN TO PROFITABILITY
Fletcher Building has reported $228 mln in net earnings, sets sights on selling off its retirement village operations and won't pay dividends for the third year in a row.

PAY OR LOSE IT
Today Ministry of Justice bailiffs have started a coordinated operation to clamp or seize cars from people not paying court fines after scanning number plates of parked cars to identify who has overdue court fines and reparations. If people cannot make arrangements, their car may be clamped or towed away to be sold.

STRONG EXPORT ORDER GROWTH
Japanese machinery orders continued their yo-yo pattern in June, now up +16.9% from a year ago (excluding volatile items). Export orders were particularly strong.

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates will likely be a little softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.98% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has dipped -1 bp to 5.04% from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.67%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.91% today and down -3 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74% and also down -3 bps.. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate up +2 bps at 4.74%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.69%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED BUT THE GAINS ARE SMALL, THE FALLS ARE LARGE
The NZX50 is now up +0.3% from Tuesday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.5%. Tokyo has opened down another sharp -2.6%. The KOSPI has taken fright again, down -5.5%. Hong Kong has opened up +0.1% but Shanghai is down a sharp -1.7% at its open (and probably looking for a home-team rescue). Singapore is down -0.5% in early Wednesday trade today. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with the S&P500 down -0.7% and the Nasdaq composite was down -1.3%.

OIL PRICES HOLD HIGH
American oil prices are up +50 USc from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just over US$85.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just over US$91.50/bbl and little-changed.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
We see a few trades today but the price has slipped -$1 to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$46/oz from yesterday, now at US$4353/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at US$63/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps against the USD from this time yesterday, now just on 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps to just under 83 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.3 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN MARGINALLY FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,304 and up +0.4% from yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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