A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; quiet on the retail rate front, more new homes planned, housing market subdued, hardship rises, banknote feedback summarised, strong NZGB demand, swaps rise, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank raised some TD rates today for 18 months and longer. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STRONG NEW SUPPLY IN THE PIPELINE
In August, 3440 new homes were consented, up +12% from August 2025. In Auckland, there was virtually no change from August a year ago but the story here is twisted by the sharp fall in consents for apartments and retirement home units. Nationally, there were 19,096 stand-alone houses consented in the year ended August 2026, up +21% compared with the previous August year. There were 22,172 multi-unit homes consented, also up +21 over the same annual period. The total annual levels are now three year highs.

SUBDUED
Cotality says the housing market remains subdued with property values continuing to edge lower in September. Their monitoring shows that median dwelling values have now fallen for six consecutive months.

HARDSHIP SURGE
The latest Centrix data shows financial hardship is on the rise with personal loan hardship volumes surging, now up +40% over the past three years.

SPRING SELLING SEASON OFF TO A SLOW START
There has been a large build up of unsold housing stock on the market for start of the spring/summer season, but asking prices are flat overall although they vary across the regions. Auckland’s average asking price for September was $993,600, down -2.9% from August and more than a quarter of a million dollars below its January 2022 peak of $1,274,800.

SUPPLY 'NORMAL', PRICES UP
The latest fuel monitoring for petrol, diesel and jet fuel shows a stable, normal situation for local stocks and for what is on the water coming soon. Volumes are one thing, prices are separate of course. Their latest price monitoring at the retail level shows petrol up +33% from a year ago, diesel is up +67%. From a week ago petrol is up +5.8%, diesel is up +8.4%..

TURNING POINT?
We've seen this before and it didn't hold, but maybe this time? The volumes of commercial properties for lease on realestate.co.nz has leveled out, currently the same at the end of September as it was in early August. South Auckland availability is definitely lower, as is central Auckland. But Hamilton available-for-lease is still climbing as is Wellington, Nelson and Christchurch. Tauranga and Dunedin are two where the choice is much less.

NZX50 FALLS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.1% so far and down -1.0% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +6.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +1.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.1% so far today. Briscoes, Vulcan Steel, Vista and Auckland Airport gain while Infratil, NZX, Gentrack and Oceania decline.

CONTINUING STRONG DEMAND
Today's NZGB bond tenders brought strong demand from 88 bids for the $450 mln available in two maturities. 26 bids were successful and perhaps surprisingly, the May 2031 bond brought a small reduction in yield from its prior offering one week earlier on super-sized demand. The May 2035 bond however saw at +41 bps rise in yield from the prior equivalent event, although that was six weeks ago.

SMOOTHER TRANSIT
In an odd Election 2026 policy announcement, the National Party says it will bring in a fully digital trans-Tasman travel experience, where eligible travelers can rely on a smartphone, digital credentials and biometric technology through more of the airport journey. This would mean no paper passport required at the gate and faster movement through airports, "while maintaining the security and integrity of New Zealand’s border and preserving the ability of border agencies to intervene where risk is identified. " It is odd because it has been a bi-partisan initiative where work on the idea started many years ago, well pre-dating the current National party leadership.

WILL BANKNOTES VANISH?
The RBNZ today released the results of its consultation on the access to and use of banknotes in trade. The consultation attracted 6106 submissions (6083 from individual members of the public and 23 from organisations). Those who want to keep cash had eight good and valid reasons. (Section 4.2) There is $9.6 bln of banknotes currently available and in the whole summary there was only one oblique mention that its anonymity is an enabler of crime, black market transactions, and tax evasion. Submitters didn't want to face that, it seems. (The RBNZ may require banknotes to be available but it will pass on the costs of that policy to others, and probably ignore the unspoken risks. The use of cash in crime will stay someone else's problem, one without a solution.)

TAIWANESE STRENGTH
Very strong new order growth has powered the September Taiwan factory PMI to a fast expansion. Apart from the pandemic recovery, this puts their expansion back on par with the very good 2018 level. This is the sort of expansion you might see in an emerging economy (say like India) but unusual for a developed economy - and far faster than in its jealous, giant neighbour to its west.

SOUTH KOREAN POWERHOUSE
South Korean exports came in very much higher than expected in August. Recall they hit US$100 bln in June for the first time and have grown since then, hitting a new all-time record of US$121 bln in August which is up +83% from the same month a year ago. Of course, electronics are the key driver.

TAME RESULT, BUT AT LEAST IT IS A SURPLUS
Meanwhile, August exports from Australia rose +15.3% from a year ago while imports rose +16.3% on the same basis. That means their merchandise trade surplus fell to just +$495 mln in August, its lowest August in ten years. the average August surplus over that period has been ten times that level (ie $5.2 bln).

SHE'S UNDER CONTROL, MATE
In its October Financial Stability Review, the RBA reckons that most Australian households with mortgages remain well placed to manage more difficult conditions, even if housing prices were to fall sharply, although there are pockets of stress (especially recent buyers). Most businesses should be able to manage elevated cost pressures, although conditions are more challenging in some sectors. and the Australian banks are well positioned to continue lending, even in a downturn, while system-wide risks to stability posed by non-bank lenders remain contained by their relatively small size. Bathla isn't going to damage Aussie financial security even if many private lenders are going to take a painful bath.

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates will likely bounced back up today on gyrating international trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was lower by -1 bps at 3.22% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps at 5.42% as markets reversed yesterday's reaction. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.68% and up +1 bp. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.10% and also up +1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.13% and up +7 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -8 bps at 5.04% on Wednesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.31% and up +8 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -1.0% from Wednesday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -1.5%. Tokyo is up +1.8%. The KOSPI is down -0.2% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened up +0.4% while Shanghai is up +0.3%. Singapore is unchanged in early Thursday trade today. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade down -0.3% with the Nasdaq up +0.2%.

OIL PRICES FIRMER
American oil prices have firmed +50 USc from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$90/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$98/bbl and up +US$1.50.

CARBON PRICE STABLE DESPITE VOLUME RUSH
There have been significant late trades yesterday and today so far but despite the volume, the price remains little-changed at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold has eased -US$13/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4161. Silver is down -50 USc at just on US$60.50/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is now just over 56.2 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 81 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is remains just over 60 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$83,552 and up a minor +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 1.6% again.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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