A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; no rate changes, retail sluggish, millennials as saver/investors, real estate activity slumps, dairy season starts well, swaps firm, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today to report.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes today. But we take a look at where TD rates are headed and look at after-tax, after-inflation returns.

RETAIL SECTOR 'SLUGGISH'
“A continuing pattern of business uncertainty coupled with the lack of desire to spend from consumers saw 58% of retailers report that they failed to hit their sales targets in the latest Retail Radar report," according to Retail NZ. And despite the increase in the minimum wage, 64% of retailers reporting that they expect to maintain staff levels. But that also means more than a quarter of them expect to decrease staffing levels. Only 9% plan to increase hiring.

BIG SAVERS
With house owning off the table for many millennials, research by fund manager Nikko Asset Management has highlighted that when it comes to investment, New Zealanders are now starting young – with millennials spending as much of their income on investments as their parents, and seeing investing as more ‘important’ than any other age group. Their survey revealed that 25-34-year-olds were devoting as much to savings/investment as 55-64-year-olds (19%).

DOWN IN THE DEPTHS OF WINTER
Real estate activity slumped to new low in July, with top end property sales well down in Auckland. New listings hit a record low on Realestate.co.nz in July, with asking prices trending down in most major centres.

SMALLER & CHEAPER
Today's tender for $50 mln in inflation linked bonds was successful. More than $190 mln was bid and the weighted average of those successful was just 0.88%. This September 2040 bond pays that plus inflation (which is currently running at 1.7%, suggesting a yield of 2.58%. That is far better than the 1.89% yield for the nominal April 2037 bond, further suggesting that bond bidders reckon inflation will dip to just 1%. Another note of interest: This has been the second linker tender of just $50 mln, down from the usual $100 mln. of the prior twenty one tenders of the 2040 bond. The longer the Government runs surpluses, the less demand the Government will have for that.

ROTOVEGAS x2
In the year to June, New Zealand's working aged population rose by more than +74,000. That is more than the total population of Rotorua (71,100) in just one year. Nationally, 732,000 of the almost 4 mln people in our workforce are over 65 yrs. 668,000 are under 25 years.

RAYS OF IMPROVEMENT
China's private sector factory Caixin PMI for July has come in slightly better than expected, mirroring the official China factory PMI released a few days ago. It is now at 49.9, essentially neither expanding nor contracting. There are rays of light however; new orders and production output are expanding again.

WINNERS & LOSERS
The latest Fonterra Global Dairy Update shows that exports from New Zealand and the EU are rising strongly, they are rising modestly from Australia, and they are falling sharply from the US.

AUSSIE SUSPENDED
The FMA has suspended the derivatives issuer licence of AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Limited (trading as AxiTrader) for material breaches of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013, including: making a regulated offer to retail clients in New Zealand without a compliant Product Disclosure Statement or Disclose register entry; failing to lodge audited financial statements; and failing to obtain an assurance engagement with a qualified auditor, for its processes, procedures and controls, within 4 months of its balance date.

SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are up today by between +2 and +3 bps across the curve. The 90-day bank bill rate has slipped another -1 bp to 1.48%. Australian swap rates are also a little softer today, although not by much. The Aussie Govt 10yr is unchanged at 1.20%. The China Govt 10yr is also unchanged at 3.19%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr up +1 bp today 1.48%. The UST 10yr yield is now at 2.04%, and down -2 bps since this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is weaker against a rising greenback and is now just on 65.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 95.7 AU cents. Against the euro we are firmer at 59.3 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 is now down slightly at 71.2.

BITCOIN SETTLES
Bitcoin is holding just on US$10,000 and volatility has been low since it got back there. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This chart is animated here.