What happened Monday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; some TD cuts, reversing policy, holidays everywhere else, Fonterra share price jumps, swaps hold, NZD stable, & more

7th Oct 19, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Asset Finance has cut most of its rates. Christian Savings has cut many of its longer-term rates. Finance Direct has cuts its term deposit rates too.

OPENING THE GATES FOR THE RICH
Government has reversed the previous clampdown by the National administration on parents of migrants being allowed to settle here, a move that follows a previous reversal by this Govt on temporary visas. Even before this change, children and migrants aged 60 and over now make up an increasing percentage of immigrants, exceeding a third.

POINTLESS RELEASE
Stats NZ today released new dwelling inventory data that shows there are now more than 1.9 mln residences in New Zealand. But frankly, this data is dubious because it does not include any revisions from the Census - and won't until some time in 2020. And then there will be major changes. So it is hard to take this data seriously when they themselves know it isn't up-to-date (despite the date).

CROWN ACCOUNT WATCH
Tomorrow the Government will release its financial results to June 2019. For reference, for the eleven months to May, they reported an overall deficit of -$2.5 bln, dragged down by investment valuations. But excluding such losses (which they dismiss when they are negative and claim when they are positive), the OBEGAL for those eleven months is a positive +$7 bln. Net core crown debt was at 19.3% of GDP. Use these reference points tomorrow to see how the full year accounts have been 'adjusted' (if any). Tomorrow's release of the full year results will be at 1pm.

SHRINKING
The contraction of the Aussie construction industry is getting worse, and it is now at its lowest point in six years.

THIN TRADING UPDATE
In addition to the NSW/QLD/SA public holiday, today is the last day of the Chinese Golden Week holiday, and it is also a holiday in Hong Kong. Tokyo is open however and the Nikkei225 is down -0.2%. Singapore is up +0.6%. The NZX50 is also up +0.5%.

RISING QUERY
After sinking to $3.17 on September 20, the Fonterra share price has risen steadily and today it has another very good rise, back up to $4.01, a +26% gain in just 12 trading days. Anyone know why? It is now back to levels we last saw in May 2019.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are up +1 bp today across the curve, ending a string of declines. The 90-day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 1.04%. Australian swap rates are down about -3 bp across their curve. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down another -3 bps to under 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at the moment prior to the Shanghai market opening tomorrow. The NZ Govt 10 yr is down another -1 bp at 1.02%. The UST 10yr yield is down another -3 bps at 1.51%.

NZ DOLLAR STABLE
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged at 63.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 93.5 AU cents while most of eastern Australia is on holiday. Against the euro we are at 57.5 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at just on 68.6.

BITCOIN SOFT
Bitcoin is lower today, now at US$7,816 and down -3.8% from this time on Friday. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This chart is animated here.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

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53 Comments

by printer8 | 7th Oct 19, 4:07pm 1570417643

For me, a sad day.
The two articles on immigration predominantly attracted posts that expressed negative attitudes and prejudices towards both immigrants and those of differing ethnic groups.
The words “They are us” are so, so hollow – go back and check the number of posts that fit the category of “Them and us”.
The number of posts with prejudices indicate that discrimination and racialism are most likely well and truly alive in New Zealand.
I found the postings regarding the cost of educating immigrant children – seemingly referring to Chinese as many did - quite ironic. NCEA data for those of Asian origin is far superior to other ethnic groups; maybe we need these immigrants who will achieve academically and go on to high paying jobs and taxes to support the seemingly numerous less successful bigots among us.
Think deeply if you ever try to boast that New Zealand has little racism. The comments today suggest that this is likely otherwise, and rather than boasting we need to be honest and embarrassed.
I am embarrassed.

by bw | 7th Oct 19, 4:13pm 1570417992

Just as a matter of interest, do you see Japan as being racist? Or China?

by printer8 | 7th Oct 19, 4:21pm 1570418518

bw
That is totally irrelevant.
You avoid acknowledging our issue by shifting the focus rather than stepping-up and acknowledging it.
Whatever Japan and China, that does not provide justification for us.

by bw | 7th Oct 19, 4:25pm 1570418721

Me, avoid the question?! I'm still interested in your answer, regardless of the deflections you make...
(NB: I see you updated your response - How about, India, with its entrenched caste System. But that's not 'racist' is it?)

by printer8 | 7th Oct 19, 4:25pm 1570418733

Your initial comment makes you the initiator and master of deflection.
Answer my comment as raised initially by not deflecting the issue.
Again - whatever the situation in Japan and China, that does not justify the situation in New Zealand and is irrelevant.

by bw | 7th Oct 19, 4:30pm 1570419000

You're right. It doesn't affect our attitudes. But are those countries racist or not? ( If what we have is so intolerant, we should look for a leading example, and following Japan or China might be the way forward?)

by GGP | 7th Oct 19, 4:29pm 1570418984

Both those countries are famously racist, as is practically every country in the world. Hope this helps bw.

by bw | 7th Oct 19, 4:30pm 1570419027

Bingo!

by printer8 | 7th Oct 19, 4:39pm 1570419574

A bit of advice bw:
If you ever play around don't try to excuse and justify it to your partner by pointing out the infidelities of someone else.
It won't make it OK.
Cheers :)

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 5:24pm 1570422268

'Whatever Japan and China, that does not provide justification for us.'

The policies of those countries may have some racists elements. But it's more about protecting their country and their citizens.
Why should it be any different in NZ?

Why can't we welcome highly skilled immigrants from ANY country and welcome their brilliant diversity, but not support a system that has resulted in many poorly skilled immigrants arriving here, many of whom place a burden on our society?

That's not racist, or xenophobic. It's merely sensible and rational, and seeks to ensure that the benefits exceed the costs not only for the immigrants themselves but NZ as the host country.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 7th Oct 19, 7:04pm 1570428273

.. true ... it's not racist or anti-immigration that's twisting our nips . .

It's that we're not getting the skilled migrants we need ... the tech freaks , surgeons , master builders ...

... we're getting lots more cow squeezers , fruit pluckers , kitchen hands ... courier drivers... low wage low skilled num-nuts ... and there's way more than enough folks like me here already...

by imhenry | 8th Oct 19, 9:28pm 1570523298

What ever BUT NZ could learn from both Countries as to Manners and Respect for others. N Z is a joke

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Oct 19, 4:16pm 1570418186

I think you mistake nationalism for racism. Most of us believe we should put the wellbeing of those that are here first. We have some very serious social issues including poverty, addiction and suicide. Immigration stretches already thin resources and in some cases exacerbates some of these issues e.g. housing shortages.
For me, its a sad day when youre called a racist for trying to highlight the failings of various governments to address the plight of our fellow Kiwis.

by BadRobot | 7th Oct 19, 4:18pm 1570418338

Racism or just plain old frustration with the government.

by printer8 | 7th Oct 19, 4:19pm 1570418371

youngdumbandbroke
We accept immigrants - they are our fellow Kiwis.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Oct 19, 4:21pm 1570418488

And what of those here already suffering? Just sweep them under the rug?

by Pragmatist | 7th Oct 19, 4:47pm 1570420079

And the question is should we.. we don't have unlimited resources, and we don't need to become a country of 20million because we let everybody in.

by youngdumbandbroke | 7th Oct 19, 4:36pm 1570419387

Exactly. Pretty simple concept that many seem to be dumbfounded by

by JimmyJames | 7th Oct 19, 5:05pm 1570421124

Good to see you boomers are still free loving hippies, albeit only after you have established a solid rental portfolio.

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 5:18pm 1570421921

'I think you mistake nationalism for racism'.

Exactly.

'For me, its a sad day when you're called a racist for trying to highlight the failings of various governments to address the plight of our fellow Kiwis.'

100%.

'Racist' is a very convenient tag to throw at people who are opposed to our high rates of immigration and its costs, regardless of where those immigrants come from.

by loveyourwork | 7th Oct 19, 4:34pm 1570419266

From what I've seen.. I'd argue that most posts - mine included - are directed towards the immigration system and related consequences as opposed to targeting individuals and different ethnic groups. I think you'll find that most people here are pro-immigration however are not satisfied with the current state of affairs (quality/quantity). However.. I agree some comments have toed the line, perhaps unfortunately festering as a result of the continued mismanagement?

by GGP | 7th Oct 19, 4:22pm 1570418553

I learned a little while ago to just stop reading the comments on any article even tangentially related to immigration.

by BadRobot | 7th Oct 19, 4:29pm 1570418942

.......or housing.

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 8:05pm 1570431946

Yeah the housing debates have got boring with the same old trolls trolling. I have enjoyed today's debates on Roger Douglas and immigration.

by Pragmatist | 7th Oct 19, 4:29pm 1570418982

I learned a little while ago to just stop reading the comments on any article even tangentially related to _______.

Farming/Farmers
Climate change
Tax.
Welfare.
Transport.
Drug Law.
Firearms.

What does burying your head in the sand achieve exactly?

by GGP | 7th Oct 19, 4:32pm 1570419140

At least there are occasional voices of reason in some of those discussions. Immigration is a completely one-way dogpile. By the end of the day I will have at least 6 responses to my comment above, all of which will be critical of it with some being outright hostile.

by Weld | 7th Oct 19, 6:30pm 1570426233

It's good to have negative attitudes and prejudices because it indicates a diversity of thought and opinion. I would fear the man who demanded that we all speak in harmony (or else!).

by JediNight | 7th Oct 19, 8:11pm 1570432283

That man would be named "printer8"

by Nzdan | 7th Oct 19, 9:15pm 1570436132

Negative attitudes and prejudices are all good as long as the target group isn't yellow, brown, black or purple.....unless of course the purveyor is yellow, brown, black or purple.. If you're white though, well, thanks to British colonisation 250 years everybody blames you for the atrocities (based on today's moral compass) that happened around the world. Being white you must suck it up and endure all prejudices directed at you no matter how offensive they would be if roles were reversed.

by printer8 | 7th Oct 19, 4:43pm 1570419820

Well . . .
I never ever expected all the reaction . . . . Not.

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 5:29pm 1570422580

What's your view Printer8 on what immigration policy should be? Much more liberal?
How do you suggest we accommodate high rates of population growth? Extra taxes to pay for more hospitals, schools, houses etc.
More borrowing?
Or the status quo - let everything crumble under the weight of high population growth?

by Nzdan | 7th Oct 19, 5:46pm 1570423571

I don’t think Printer8 has a view on the topic beyond Virtue Signalling. Probably call you a racist for being against Sharia Law in New Zealand.

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 6:12pm 1570425148

ha.
If I recall correctly, Printer8 is a bona fide member of the 'Property Spruikers Club' on Interest, so no doubt he/she loves the high population growth settings that successive governments have fostered...

by printer8 | 7th Oct 19, 8:30pm 1570433448

Nzdan and Fritz
You ask what my opinion on immigration.
I have no problem with immigration that is controlled and have no problem with it being selective as it is.
What I do have a problem with is many of the arguments being made today which were based on prejudice.
I have not labelled anyone a racist, but you need to consider the following from a 2016 investigation by the Human Rights Commission:
"When the Commission first began planning the campaign, it became clear that many people didn’t think racism was a problem in New Zealand. However, people from ethnic minorities told us a different story. Every one of them had stories of prejudice to tell us . . . "
While going back in time (the late 1980s), there was a very clear example of prejudice even at governmental level. One third of over-stayers were Pacific Islanders and they represented 86% of prosecutions; over-stayers form the US and UK also made up a third of over-stayers but only 5% of prosecutions.
The comments I read today show that many haven't moved and have a similar strong racial bias - if you want to call that racism, then yes it is racism.
A comment made by the Human Rights Commission is telling: “We suspect many of us don’t realise when something we say is unfair or biased, but we would if someone pointed it out to us”.
This was evident today but unfortunately it appears many - including yourselves - are in denial and don't accept it when it is pointed out.
Also interesting tonight on TVNZ which undermines the sterotypical comments being made. A Niuean family came to New Zealand to do well for themselves; three of the children are now doctors - clearly not a burden on our society and, if one looks, it is a situation being repeated numerous, numerous times.
The reality is that any migration is not a typical cross section of the population but rather it is usually those with ambition and initative. We should recognise this in our thinking regarding immigrants.
Have a look at the following link:
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/media-centre/newsletters/settl…

by Nzdan | 7th Oct 19, 8:54pm 1570434854

Where were the racist comments? I didn't see any? Someone shared a relatable anecdote of a young Chinese migrant couple moving in next door, having kids, bringing in their parents and then moving back to China leaving the tax payer to subsidise the care of their dependants. Would you have been just as triggered if it were an Irish migrant couple? Spanish?

by printer8 | 8th Oct 19, 7:49am 1570474141

Nzdan
You are showing an ignorance.
You clearly do not understand the distinction between a prejudice statement and a racist statement.
A prejudice statement is based on preconceived stereotypical ideas.
Prejudice statements can relate to many stereotypical assumptions which can include race but that is not necessarily so. Other prejudice statements can be based on things including immigrants, gender, age, wealth, religion, . .
Sadly, a feature of those who make prejudice statements do not recognise these as such as they are based on their personal values.
So yes - while not agreeing with your assertion - it could equally apply to an Irish or Spanish couple. You describe them as "Chinese migrant" - your argument is focused on them being Chinese rather than migrant and therefore make it about race rather than immigration.

by Nzdan | 8th Oct 19, 8:38am 1570477109

Are you suggesting there is a negative connotation with being described as a Chinese Migrant? If they're Chinese, and they recently migrated here, then they're a Chinese Migrant. If your default position is to see "Chinese Migrant" as a degrading label then I suspect you need to look at your own prejudices.

by printer8 | 8th Oct 19, 10:49am 1570484959

No Nzdan
There is no negative connotation in being a "Chinese Migrant" and I agree that it is appropriate to describe a person as such and do not see it as degrading.
It is when you choose to focus on the basis of race alone which your comment does - i.e. does one treat a Chinese person differently to an Irish or Spanish person - it become racist. I disagree with that.
As I said, you and many of the contributors do not seem to comprehend what is meant by "prejudice" and that was related to immigrants.
Cheers.

by Cowpat | 7th Oct 19, 4:49pm 1570420154

by Justa comment | 7th Oct 19, 4:57pm 1570420633

At this time with the housing crisis in Auckland and hospital deficits this is a terrible decision I think. Things like this get remembered at election time.

by Westminster | 7th Oct 19, 6:10pm 1570425048

David you ask why Fonterra share prise has risen?
A potion of farmers have got compulsory requirements to share up as a result contracts and have until April to do so. With the supposedly bad news now out looks rather premature.

by Audaxes | 7th Oct 19, 6:12pm 1570425158

After sinking to $3.17 on September 20, the Fonterra share price has risen steadily and today it has another very good rise, back up to $4.01, a +26% gain in just 12 trading days.

The price recovery profile has the pattern of stopped out short covering.

by Pragmatist | 7th Oct 19, 7:27pm 1570429642

people that had been gambling on the Final announcements being even more atrocious?

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 6:34pm 1570426482

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12274262

Am I the only one who has limited sympathy for Professor Levy?
She chose to come to NZ 33 years ago, knowing that her parents would one day age.
She could always return to the UK to be with her mother.

by Nzdan | 7th Oct 19, 6:54pm 1570427689

Or her mother could come over here only after making a token payment of $500k to the IRD? Will make up for the lack of tax dollars she’s put towards building and maintaining the infrastructure she will no doubt use.

by Glitzy | 7th Oct 19, 7:03pm 1570428192

Imagine coming from the UK and the absolute shock at the realization your new home at 80 years old was built for the weather in Hawaii but the climate is like London :/

by Nzdan | 7th Oct 19, 8:54pm 1570434897

OH WAIT DUDE THAT'S RACIST ISN'T IT?

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 9:33pm 1570437237

oh yeahhhh
Coming from me, basically half Scottish. I'm so racist towards myself.

by Nzdan | 7th Oct 19, 10:57pm 1570442236

I ain’t racist, I’ve got mates who are Swedes.

by Fritz | 7th Oct 19, 10:01pm 1570438905

there's hardly anything that you can say these days without being labelled a racist, sexist etc. It's BS!
Did you see this BS on Keith Quinn? It was clearly a dig at the rugby league comparison, not a sexist dismissal!
I'm sick of this crap.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/rugby-world-cup/rwc-2019-japan/1163…

And that's coming from someone (myself) who is pretty progressive and liberal, generally speaking.

by loveyourwork | 8th Oct 19, 7:14am 1570472060

by Nzdan | 7th Oct 19, 11:01pm 1570442476

White and male with a bit of stale thrown in. That in itself is a crime.

by youngdumbandbroke | 8th Oct 19, 8:47pm 1570520829

Maybe you should just identify as Maori then? Don't let anyone assume your ethnicity how dare they!