A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; rate changes, retail card spending sags, eyes on the RBNZ who eye others, bond turnover almost touches $1 tln, swaps firm, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Update: SBS Bank has reduced its fixed one year rate by -10 bps to 3.65%

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Update: SBS Bank has also cuts most of its term deposit offers across the board. That means it no longer offers 3.00% for three years, the new rate being 2.60%. NZCU Employees also cut rates today, but uniquely retained a premium for term.

SAGGING, STALE GROWTH
Retail card spending fell marginally in a seasonally adjusted basis in October from September, with less spent on long-lasting goods such as hardware and appliances (-0.8%), as well as a dip in day-to-day spending on food and drinks (-0.5%), Stats NZ data showed today. Year-on-year, electronic card spending rose +2.8% from the same month a year ago, well below the average +3.5% for the past twelve months. A good part of that slowdown is because fuel purchases are waning; in October we spent $596 mln using cards whereas in the same month a year ago we spent $682 mln on fuel. On a full year basis, the decline is -9.1% lower. Our growing economy is getting both more fuel efficient, and before-tax fuel prices are falling (although higher taxes have kept the pump price unchanged).

AWAITING THE RBNZ JUDGMENT
All eyes are on Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, the last one until mid-February 2020. Analysts are split of what is likely to happen. See this. A lot may depend on tomorrow's RBNZ survey of expectations. It is a survey of "business managers and professionals" run by Nielsen. Almost certainly the results are now known to the RBNZ policy makers and you can easily image different RBNZ thought processes if those survey results are 'bad', or 'unchanged' (ie, GDP expected to decrease), or 'good'. The RBNZ probably thinks it is reacting to what it sees in the economy, but perversely, the key economy players are waiting to see what the RBNZ assessment is before making investment decisions. What the RBNZ decides this week will set the economic tone for 2020, an election year. We are in a tail-chasing phase.

DUNEDIN BORROWS $100 MLN
Dunedin City is seeking up to $100 mln in bonds in tow tranches, offering 1.51% for their three year tranche and 2.09% for their seven year tranche.

PRIVATISING THE TALENT?
The head of the ACC's inventment team is leaving to set up his own fund. And the ACC is following, becoming a "cornerstone client".

A TRILLION DOLLAR TRADE
Trade in NZ Government bonds is approaching the pace of NZ$1 tln per year, up +2.6% in a year. It got closest in the year to March at NZ$997 bln, fell away a little in the meantime, and has now crept back up to NZ$992 bln in the year to September. It is unlikely to be noticed when the NZ$1 tln mark is passed, but it does show that trading in low-risk NZ sovereign bonds is very popular. The trade has risen +13% in five years, and +130% in ten years. The huge earthquake+GFC deficit spending period 2009-2013 created the reservoir of bonds that makes up this trade.

MOVING OUT
The number of permanent and long term residents packing up and leaving Australia has now pushed on up through the -250,000 per year rate in the year to September, a new record.

SECOND PLACE
The number of Kiwis visiting Australia (visits) hit 1.4 mln in the year to September, a new all-time record high. But we have now been beaten into second place by visitors from China (1.44 mln). Visitors from Japan however are growing among the fastest to Australia (up +9.1% pa).

LOCAL SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are basically up +1 bps across the curve today. The 90-day bank bill is unchanged at 1.15%. Australian swap rates are falling about -2 bps across their curve. The Aussie Govt 10yr is unchanged at 1.30%. The China Govt 10yr is also unchanged at 3.29%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is up +1 bp to 1.40% and a level it hasn't seen since July. The UST 10yr yield is also unchanged at 1.95% awaiting Wall Street's open later tonight.

NZ DOLLAR ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar has changed little today and still at 63.4 USc, perhaps with a touch of firmness. Against the Aussie we are unchanged from Friday at 92.5 AUc although up from the weekend rates. Against the euro are softish at 57.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just over 68.6.

BITCOIN DOWN
Bitcoin is now at US$9,052 which is up from weekend levels but lower than where we left it on Friday. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This chart is animated here.