A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; ANZ trims TD rates, GDP growth slows, dairy saves trade result, signs holiday sales may be weak, swaps rise, NZD up, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; ANZ trims TD rates, GDP growth slows, dairy saves trade result, signs holiday sales may be weak, swaps rise, NZD up, & more
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. Update: TSB has cut its one year fixed rate to 3.39% and raised its two year rate to 3.55%. This matches a number of other rivals.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut -5 bps from its eight, and nine month term deposits, and its one year rate as well. There will be cuts from others tomorrow.

EBBING AWAY
Our economy grew by +0.7% in the September quarter from June, and +2.3% year-on-year thanks in-part to more retail spending; Growth was stronger than expected by the RBNZ and bank economists. But because 2018 data was revised higher that means 2019 growth is significantly lower than a year ago and its lowest level since 2013. But the short-term "better than expected" narrative will be what most readers notice elsewhere. A number of analysts however think Q3-2019 is the bottom and "we are through the worst".

DAIRY DELIVERS STRONG TRADE RESULT
Rising exports delivered a -$752 mln trade deficit in November, and that was much better than the -$1 bln deficit posted in November 2018. Dairy exports led the way. Overall exports were up +7.2% while imports only rose +2.0% year-on-year. Exports to China were up +22%. Our annual surplus with China has risen to +$3.7 bln and up from +$1.2 bln in the previous year. (Interestingly, the Chinese ambassador to Australia has publically "reminded" the Aussies that their surplus is all down to the China trade in a very direct warning that they essentially control and down the result. The Trumpian threats are getting closer and more brazen.)

RETAIL WEAKNESS?
BNZ/Marketview's online sales report for November reveals some unexpected weakness. Not only are online sale at international sites sagging further, that at NZ online stores are too, which was an unexpected result.

Fonterra said it has acquired almost all the minority stake in one of its Chilean operations.

MORE JOBS IN AUSTRALIA
Australia's jobless rate fell to 4.8% in November as more temporary positions were filled. Their participation rate was unchanged at 65.9%. The number of full time jobs was up +146,000 in the year to November but the number of part-time jobs was up +110,000 in the same period. There are rises of +1.7% and +2.7% respectively. Analysts think the underlying trend shows some concerns because many of the recent hire will be reversed after the holiday season.

LOCAL SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesales swap rates are firmer again. Today they are up +2 bps for two years, up +4 bps for five years, and up +5 bps for ten years. The 90-day bank bill rate is up another +1 bp at 1.24%. Australian swap rates have made a similar small move up. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up another +6 bps at 1.25%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.24%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also up +4 bps at 1.60%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps to 1.91%.

NZ DOLLAR UP
The Kiwi dollar is higher after the GDP result at 65.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 95.9 AUc. Against the euro we have risen to 59.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is back at 71.

BITCOIN RISES
Bitcoin is making a recovery, now at US$7,140 and up a strong +7.4% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

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18 Comments

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Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

"A number of analysts however think Q3-2019 is the bottom and "we are through the worst"

There seems to be a fair bit of talk about things picking up next year at the moment... seems more like a dead cat bounce to me? The global skys don't seem to be getting any brighter...

Maybe just a false start/slightly early call to the down-turn rather than a recovery/'bottoming out'?

The media companies are gifting us a very strange Christmas.

The Chinese Ambassador's recent remarks, as the link above was paywalled;

https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/china-says-it-s-driving-austr...

China has taken over many Pacific islands including NZ and Australia.

This confirmrs the fact that all this countries will be proxy of China, if not already.

Earlier was British East India company which entered India as traders and ruled them over 200 years. History repeats itself only this time is different player and different countries. Only with times rule of the games have changed but end result is same.

( ͡^ ͜ʖ ͡^) TRUMP HAS BEEN IMPEACHED! ༚┈❁┈*゚♬:*( ͡≖ ل͜ ͡≖)*゚♬:*┈❁┈༚

BBC article: Donald Trump is impeached and faces trial in the US Senate
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50840934

And from the look of polls over last few weeks the Democratic congress has just sunk any chance of a Democrat defeating Trump with this transparently partisan sideshow. To top it off; Buttigeig is the only one moderate candidate who could potentially challenge Trump - all other's too flawed, but Bloomberg's late entrance has taken wind from his sails. Biden, Sanders and Warren need to take a hike and let a real contender come through.

Warren will annilate Trump (Impeached)

Who cares, Trump will be fore ever branded with IMPEACHMENT! (つ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)つ ─=≡ΣO)) Donald Trump has become the third US president in history to be impeached by the House of Representatives. ✩·͙*̩̩͙˚̩̥̩̥( ͡ᵔ ͜ʖ ͡ᵔ )*̩̩͙✩·͙˚̩̥̩̥.

Yep, impeachment isn't what it use to be.

Trump will wear it like a badge of honour.

Seems it's just Trump triggers some people others see him stopping wars, raising employment and incomes,

Question: can anyone tell what his high crimes and misdemeanors are.

Dems have said the Bidens were investigative worthy, and also the court has agreed to hear the wrangle of information disclosure.
Dems had earlier said impeachment had to be bipartisan, an element forgotten now.

I get the orange hair bad bit.

American politics is just like World Wrestling Entertainment, simply theatrics that some people take seriously. Trump's impeachment will probably give him more votes because it keeps the focus on him. Like a WWE star he needs to be a spectacular bad guy and not a goody goody two shoes. I know people who turned against Trump because he is actually pretty useless and does nothing for the American people who are now back to supporting him 1000%.

I'd support him still even though I'm absolutely sure he would throw me under the bus if I was jailed for supporting him. The entertainment is that effective. The other side seriously believe that geriatrics and simpletons and the epitome of the ordinary can counter the Orange Man in a contest. It's a wonderful creation. Impeaching the Orange Superman will only take his power level beyond 9000 and into the infinite.

Dems and Repubs are enemies in front of the cameras, but best of friends behind the scenes.

Yeah there are numerous photos of George Bush and Michelle Obama holding hands, kissing and hugging.

I find it strange / ironic - Trump ranting in the letter to Pelosi about how the Democrat's are still smarting that they lost the election yet at a rally today Trump was still going on about Hillary Clinton.

It's not strange nor ironic. It's healthy to remember the good things that happened but unhealthy to be bitter about something that happened in the past. Your comment is just a very weak attempt to put down Trump.

Don't forget both comments come from Trump - they are Trumps words - and Trumps thinking. Trump believes that the impeachment is about the Democrats losing in 2016 - is there any evidence that it is true. Trumps seems to still see Hillary as a threat - is he that paranoid or just playing to a gullible audience. In the end America has to look in the mirror - everything is self inflicted.

"Trump was still going on about Hillary Clinton"
Makes sense doesn't it? I mean, she is going to run in the next election, so she's a current opponent?

Where is the evidence that Hillary is running in 2020 - there is speculation but no confirmation that she is running. Weak argument.