A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; savings account interest vanishing, credit card use, NZ Super Fund loses bigtime, taxpayers bailout AirNZ, swap rates fall, NZD recovers, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; savings account interest vanishing, credit card use, NZ Super Fund loses bigtime, taxpayers bailout AirNZ, swap rates fall, NZD recovers, & more
ID 22702269 © Daniaphoto | Dreamstime.com

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None here today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank cut their iSave rate (to 0.05% from 0.25%) and ASB cut many asving account rates also to 0.05% mostly from 0.10%. Saving in these types of accounts "doesn't pay".

SHUTTING DOWN
Auckland's libraries, pools and recreational centers, as well as the Maritime Museum and Art Gallery, will close for two weeks from today in line with Government recommendations to constrain the spread of COVID-19.

GROWTH LEVELS OFF
Local transactions charged to domestically issued credit cards rose +2.9% year-on-year in February, very similar growth to what we saw in January, but way below the +5.9% growth we had in February 2019. Overseas transactions on NZ cards were down -1.0%. This data doesn't show any distortion yet from the crisis.

RESPONSIBLE USE RISING
But credit card balances outstanding are falling, and were -0.8% lower in February 2020 than the same month a year ago. Card holders are not adding to their debt - yest, at least. In fact, interest-bearing balances are down -2.6% and that is the eighth month in a row we have seen a decline. Less than 60% of credit card balances incur interest which is near a record low.

THE GIANTS TRY A KNOCKOUT PLAY
Banks see a fantastic opportunity in this coronavirus emergency to knock out EFTPOS. They are offering a six month "fee holday" for contactless payments, pointing to the no-touch benefits of the technology. But those fees are large, very large compared to EFTPOS, and now is a good time to ram home their advantage and get more worried people converted. So when the six months is up, they can collect fat fees from a wide pool of merchants. Regulators should be regulating the merchant fee levels, hopefully down to EFTPOS levels, a system that would work for customers and merchants, and restrain the excessive tech-rent that banks and card systems (Mastercard and Visa) are imposing on our payments systems.

LOW APPETITE
New Zealand banks bid for just $200 mln of the $2 bln on offer this morning at the Reserve Bank's first auction to support banking system liquidity. Which bank(s) needed those funds wasn't revealed. The low uptake bolsters claims NZ banks have sound balance sheets and good funding at present.

DOWN -20% in 80 DAYS, -$100 MLN PER DAY
The NZ Super Fund has lost -$8.9 bln so far in 2020
and its CEO warns it could get worse. So far what was a $46.7 bln fund at Deceember 2019 was down to $37.8 bln on March 17. Their website suggests it is now down to $36.2 bln since

IRRESPONSIBLE LENDING?
Taxpayers are to support Air NZ via a $900 mln "debt arrangement". C'mon, its a straight bailout. It is clearly a deal made where no-one really thinks the airline can pay back this 'loan' because it includes a mechanism for the Crown to convert the debt to equity. Any loan to any business made for 'survival' means the enterprise is no longer a going concern and repayment will be impossible on that basis. Banks will be very reluctant to lend for these types of social rescues. In fact to do so will break every 'responsible lending' obligation they have signed up to over the past few years. Before public policy people and regulators tell banks to do that type of lending, they had better look at what the regulations and standards they have themselves imposed.


You get our daily news coverage free. If you enjoy reading our website, I am asking you to Become a Supporter. Do that by either clicking on the Red button below, or on the Black button at the top of every page. The level of your support is up to you. I personally want to say a big Thank You. (If you are already a Supporter, you're my hero.)


EXPLOSIVE RISES EXTEND
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 243,000 of officially confirmed cases, up +90% in a week. There are now 161,600 cases outside China and almost all of them are in five core countries. Italy is up +15% from just this morning's tally, up +47% in a day, Spain (is little-changed from this morning but up +60% in a day), Germany is up +80% in a day, France is up +60% on the same basis, and the USA is up +27% since this morning and up +150% in one day! This five core infected country list is about to change. Switzerland is about to be added, topping South Korea which has plateaued. The global official death toll now is almost 10,000. Eleven new cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand have been confirmed in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of cases here to 39.

TAKING A BREATHER
Earlier today, Wall Street closed modestly higher, with the S&P500 up +0.5% but that really only embeds a bear market. The ASX has opened much more positively, up +4.1% in mid-day trade. The NZX50 Capital Index is even, down just -0.1%. Asian markets have opened generally higher with Shanghai up +1.0%, and Hong Kong up +3.7%. Tokyo is the odd one out, down -1.0%.

LOCAL SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates have fallen today as sharply as they rose yesterday. The two year is down -12 bps on the day, the five year is down -15 bps and the ten year is also down -15 bps from this time yesterday. The 90-day bank bill rate is also down -2 bps to 0.67%. In Australia, their swap curve is down too, but in a much sharper bear fall than NZ. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -20 bps to 1.27%. The China Govt 10yr is going its own way, up +2 bps at 2.79%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -19 bps to 1.57%. The UST 10yr has also fallen during today's trading to now be at 1.16%, but a daily fall of only -4 bps.

NZ DOLLAR RESPONDS AS HOPED
The Kiwi dollar has recovered as sharply today as it fell yesterday. It is now at 57.3 USc and up +2c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down to 98.6 AUc and a -½c fall. Against the euro we are now at 53.6 and a +3c recovery. That means the TWI-5 is now at 65.2, lower by -4% since the start of the month but up from this time yesterday. There is little doubt that the RBNZ announcements earlier today have improved liquidity and sentiment around the NZ financial markets.

BITCOIN UP
Bitcoin is now at US$6,150 and up +14% since this time yesterday. Most of this rise came overnight. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below, and today it is worth taking a look.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

86 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

It just keeps on giving - California, the world’s “fifth largest economy” is shutting down.

This from Wikipedia - If California were a sovereign nation (2020), it would rank as the world's fifth largest economy, ahead of India and behind Germany.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/california-governor-issues-statewide-ord...

Not only that but they're also letting out a huge amount of criminals to help prevent the virus from spreading....
I'm surprised that Trump would allow this to happen it's probably won't help him to get re-elected: BBC US jails begin releasing prisoners to stem Covid-19 infections. "US jails are to let out inmates as cases of coronavirus infections are being reported in prisons.
The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department reduced it's inmate population by 600 in the last two weeks, officials said on Tuesday. Our population within our jails is a vulnerable population just by who they are, where they are located, so we're protecting that population from potential exposure."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51947802

Malaysia is witnessing rapid growth in cases i.e. jumping 6x in a week to 900 so far - debunking the widely-held myth that a warm summer in the Northern Hemisphere shall appease flu-like symptoms of Covid-19.

13
up

NZ is witnessing a 10x growth in cases in a week debunking the myth that we have competent leadership

13
up

To be fair those reported cases have been imported....ie not exactly "growth". Just a matter of time though.

14
up

Um the govt left the gates open for those cases.

27
up

Why do I get the feeling that if the government closed those gates very early then At that time, the same people here would be commenting how irresponsible they were towards the economy.

With the rugby gone these amazing people are turning their incredible Monday Morning Quarterbackwardness to other purposes.

It's a case of damned if they do, damned if they don't.

I feel the government has done an OK job so far.

Yes I agree, the rate of increase and certainly the few number of case that we have is minuscule in comparison to similar sized countries.

Who are those "same people here" ?
Plenty of people here criticized the govt for not closing the borders sooner ( myself included ) .
Others thought the measures were an over-reaction .
Give me an example of someone doing both at different times.

I think you are making it up as suits your view that the COL/Jacinda can do not wrong - they are just soo cudly.

Yeah really, it was only a few weeks ago that China was trying to force our Government to keep the gates open for them.

11
up

just think if national were in charge they would have followed orders from their funders and overlords and opened the borders to china as soon as the Chinese ambassador told SB to

If the Chinese Consulate in Ak had got their way, the number of cases of the Wuhan virus in NZ would be way, way higher at this point.
Thankfully nobody paid any attention.
Oh OK I have just read the post above, you are right, National were probably paying attention.

Chinese businessmen continued to come in after the border was shut. It was just spin that it was closed. If Simon did that he would have been crucified by the msm. When you have kind PM anything goes.

What interests me is that even though we are only importing cases, we are still following the expontential growth of the virus that every other country has seen with community transmission.

We must actually have the most lapse border restrictions in the world.

It's almost like the importation rate is increasing in-line with the global infection rate....

Yes, if only we were a little isolated country in the middle of a very large ocean. That sort of country could probably limit the influx with some stricter border measures. Oh to be that lucky...

100% of countries imported their initial infections though. Its the spread that starts 1-2 weeks later that kills us

13
up

99.5%. China was export only.

Except you should really view China as a bunch of provinces when it comes to COVID-19. Hubei is the only one that had uncontrolled community transmission. The other provinces got it under control very quickly.

I realise that doesn't support your narrative though.

that was because they shut Hubei off, we should have in hindsight shut our borders earlier too, hopefully we can still contain what is here, and even worse dont have a tourist who slipped in just in time wandering all over NZ spreading it

I realise that you take issue with any, and everything I say. But FYI there is no narrative, no implication, and no derision in my comment. It is fact. Only one Country did not import. All the rest did.

If the rest of the world had:
a) Ignored the WHO advice to not impose travel restrictions against China, and
b) Done exactly what the Internal Chinese provinces did against Hubei.

Then maybe we wouldn't be in the pickle we are in.

"I realise that you take issue with any, and everything I say."

Only the things you say that are wrong.

tbf it probably was "exported" to China. "A Canadian government scientist at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg made at least five trips to China in 2017-18, including one to train scientists and technicians at China's newly certified Level 4 lab, which does research with the most deadly pathogens, according to travel documents obtained by CBC News.

Xiangguo Qiu — who was escorted out of the Winnipeg lab in July amid an RCMP investigation into what's being described by Public Health Agency of Canada as a possible "policy breach" — was invited to go to the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences twice a year for two years, for up to two weeks each time."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/national-microbiology-lab-scient...

because teh door was left wide open -- hundreds more not tested spreading it as we speak as a result of half assed responses - what idiot in their right mind would expect people on a three week vacation of a lifetime to self isolate for the first two weeks DUH

reading about how Singapore are handling it should be the way we do it, same as what the WHO says test test and test and isolate those that have it to stop any spread.
our head office is in Singapore and we are following their rules, no worker to be within 2 metres from another,
only skype, video or phone conferencing meetings,
workers not to eat together of share food
all surfaces to be cleaned daily by each worker
they get temp checked twice a day and where possible workers to work from home (which we are doing now)
they learnt this all from SARS we have not learnt yet

And the 'rationing of test kits' mentioned tonight on TV3 news. Test, test, test? Fail, fail, fail. But the Gubmint spin is 'no community transmission evident'. Yeah, no widespread testing will allow that one through for the time being.

The MoH was specifically asked if they were rationing test kits and they said they were not, they were simply testing all of the people that needed to be tested and not people who are unlikely to have the disease because that's a waste of time and resources for everyone. Yesterday they did a little under 1,000 tests, up from around 600 tests the day before.

The lab has a capacity for 1,500 tests per day but only if they run long shifts (1,000 is about as many as they can do without running long shifts) and they don't want to run the lab on long shifts if they don't have to because that's exhausting for the technicians.

They're rolling out community testing centres starting this weekend, there will be 5 in Auckland.

None of that sounds like rationing to me.

thats the key to how Singapore is so successful massive testing , people can be tested multiple times and as soon as they find one they take them away to isolation
we are lacking the infrastructure in NZ and it shows what 15+ years of high immigration and investment not made to keep up with it is coming back to bite us on the a

12
up

I’m thinking we’re fighting the current war with the last wars equipment and tactics – as in WW2 and WW1 – only 20 years apart but very different.

So out we bring ever lower interest rates, QE, CB funding windows et al - just like last time ( and even that didn’t really “work”).

This crisis may be very different – not only is the financial system completely broken – but major economies are no longer functioning – and may not for some time.

What we are currently doing may be viewed, in hindsight, as mindless fiddling – I suggest bold, new and innovative policies are ultimately required.

11
up

Now whats that saying about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result

11
up

We need some serious infrastructure investment to keep the fires burning, I vote high speed rail the length of both islands.

And everyone gets a free pony

I'll have a pink one please.

On the plus side with brexit likely to be postponed there's likely to be a surplus going, or were they unicorns? Either way a pink one would be great.

Not one made in China though...

plenty of work out there for forestry workers that need other work to do to get by if the government stepped up
i know there are plenty of doc places that need a lot of work the government could spend money on to keep forestry workers going
whether its repairing tracks building new ones (herekino forest) for kauri dieback or trapping pests in all our forests
i just came back from the lake waikaremoana great walk and it is in bad shape, the bush is infested with possums, they came to eat the grass around the huts at night and were not bothered by us we could walk right up to them. talking to the guys doing the pest control for the kiwi recovery they say the forest is infested with possum, deer, goats and pigs and they are protecting a tiny area that the kiwi have outgrown
the track is in serious need of repair in places, the lake is starting to get infested with weed
most people on the track all commented how quiet it was and the lack of bird call

Following on from yesterdays posts and links by Audaxes, and bring in a comment from Peter Shiff to my own thoughts on aid for the economy.

The meausre of the economy is really a measure of consumption resources. Any aid or stimulus has to result in consumption of resources or it will simply cause inflated prices. Or as Peter Schiff says, it has to result in somebody making something. Always boil it down to basics.

It seems like the bond market is working it out, there won't be more consumption on the 10 year time frame. That means few investments will pay a return.

Armed with this you can all work out if any given help from the government is useful.

A statisitic to guide you. Tthe money supply to GDP has gone from 43% in the early 1970's to 150% (and rising) today.

Tthe money supply to GDP has gone from 43% in the early 1970's to 150% (and rising) today.

Good stuff Scarfie

This is not a virus issue, this is a debt issue, and we're all in it whether we like it or not. This time next year we'll all be shaking our heads about that virus. A bit like Y2K. Remember?

13
up

Agree - and debt requires a credit system, and for a credit system to work it requires confidence, optimisim that people will be able to repay those debts. COVID19 is simply the black swan to destroy our optimism towards the future and peoples ability to make good on their debts.

The dangers of low interest rates and high lending/leverage are soon going to make themselves clear. Perhaps it will all work out. When Ray Dalio is worried we're in a pickle, I'm worried.

Fed extended swap lines to other countries.
That is why NZD is up a bit

What happened today, lets see.. I went shopping... my weekly shop, few shelves cleared out producing a palpable feeling of panic.
No one wearing a mask, no one keeping 1.5m distance apart. (No one seems to understand its breath the virus travels on, not just coughs and sneezes)
A nervous joking at the checkout, i hand sanitized many times.. all items will be wiped before coming into the house (i have elderly parents at home).. Next time i shop i will wear my industrial respirator just to really get things going.
Business is busy.. not sure how long that will last.. If Mr Robertson wants to help small business he can drop my rent and power bill and make tax compliance easier/cheaper... My day.. and now a cool Corona.

"(No one seems to understand its breath the virus travels on, not just coughs and sneezes)"

Because that is not the advice being given by the experts. I guess you know better, though.

That article is quite old and apparently relies on information out of China, so is not necessarily reliable.

This article says measles is so infectious (r0 12-18, vs 2-3 for coronavirus) because the size of the virus is so small that it can be aerosolized and stay suspended in the air for hours: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesn...

The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But “limited” conditions does not mean “no” conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. “I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”

There are strong reasons to doubt that the new coronavirus has anything close to that capability.

“If it could easily exist as an aerosol, we would be seeing much greater levels of transmission,” said epidemiologist Michael LeVasseur of Drexel University. “And we would be seeing a different pattern in who’s getting infected. With droplet spread, it’s mostly to close contacts. But if a virus easily exists as an aerosol, you could get it from people you share an elevator with.”

i would not want to be a landlord at this time, people are going to lose jobs and the ability to pay rent, you have no seasonal students to increase demand and how long will the banks play nice

Hmmm. Is Air New Zealand the victim of low interest rates? Low interest rates encourages "investment" in low IRR capital projects. I read an article by some bright chap on this site that said that Air New Zealand used an expected rate of return of 11%. To me that is shockingly low, with no margin for error and below their real cost of capital.

The 2% inflation target and the low interest rates that go with it buggers up the whole difficult process of capital allocation. It encourages "investment" in stories. It encourages excess capacity worldwide. Coupled with our dopey bureaucrats' and pollies' ritual obeisance to foreign capital "investment", we have, voila, low productivity growth. Who would have thought?

For me, low interest rates turned everything into a game of poker where the players go all in. If you decide to not go all in because your intuition tells you something isn't right (I'm an INTJ/INFJ), you get charged rent by a landlord, then your taxes are used to bailout companies that have been all in, the possible lose your savings because the landlord who you've been paying rent to have gone all in and can not longer pay all his/her debt.

Low interest rates encourages gambling behaviour in my opinion. Higher interest rates, where savings provides fair returns, bring balance, prudence, better options than speculating on equities and property.

Use your Thinking side to look at money as a system. Interest rates are not something you choose, they are a trend within the system. The system finds the maximum extractive value, ie: interest rates are the maximum they can possibly be at all times. When it reaches a peak interest rates must deline. At that point the ability to service the debt is at its peak and is unsustainble as the servicing component keeps growing. The reaction is to lower rates to match the point of maximum extractive value.

The problem isn't the interest rate as such, it is interest as an unearned income being a burden to the productive part of the economy.

Looking back through history, we had rates like this in the 30's and 40's right? Then the following decades we had issues with inflation (rising consistently through to the 80's where it was 15-20%), meaning large amounts of debt couldn't be serviced - which meant you wouldn't/can't use leverage to gamble on the movement of assets like houses (which is what I believe we've had while rates drop - think interest only loans) as you wouldn't be able to service the interest on such expensive assets.

Question then becomes, are interest rates going to be zero forever? Or are we now setting ourselves up from the mother of all resets in asset prices?

Look at a chart of the entire history of the US 10yr from 1790. A gradual rise as interest found its' maximum extractive value (aided by expansion of the exploitation of resources) hits a peak and then declines again, terminating in 1945 (worrying). Since 1945 it looks to me like the same pattern, but compressed. Except in 1945 there was still a bit of planet to exploit, this time there isn't. Growth of the same nature will never return. In fact growth period may never return. At best there is a flat line from here. 0-1% interest rates for ten years before it goes negative would be a best case scenario.

@Independent Observer : As a ESTJ I agree with your intuition:)

that has been the situation since the GFC, too many companies that should have disappeared were saved by cheap credit and many used it to boost share price rather than modernize and up productivity and improve business models

Another essential industry in crisis – and another desperate plea for assistance – surely someone can lend the movie theatres a dime.

Sure - just join the back of the bailout queue kid – it’s only a couple of blocks back.

It’s really become this ridiculous.

“Movie theaters need government assistance to weather the financial storm brought by the coronavirus, AMC CEO Adam Aron told CNBC on Thursday.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-amc-ceo-says-movie-theaters-...

Where do you start and stop? It's a slippery slope.

13
up

Sex workers appeal for government assistance as clients withdraw, seeking more bang for their buck.

69 isolation only thankyou.

Nicely worded.

Nicely worded.

So they're reeling....

Should spool resources

24 to 36 hours to develop guidance, does not make for work of much quality.
Where is the list of jobs and activities yet to be done because add this to the ordering of ventilators. There is a good chance other tasks and activities that the community assumes is in hand is in fact not.
How do we the community help these folk in management positions get through this preparation.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120433065/hospitality-...

On Thursday, Health Minister David Clark said the Government would talk about the implications of the rules with the hospitality sector over the next two days.

"We know this has specific implications for the hospitality sector. We will work with the sector over the next 24-36 hours to develop guidance."

This level of attention to detail may explain the sorry state of find ventilators, and seemingly placing an order Wednesday to find a 6 week wait.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120387141/coronavirus-...

As the Government assigns funding for intensive care equipment and the Ministry of Health scrambles to tally crucial assets, manufacturers warn sourcing ventilators won't be easy.

Contrast.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120433407/why-singapor...

... the only thing that will save Qantas and Virgin is a taxpayer-funded bailout.....as a distressed debt investor then it incumbent on the Government to do so with the stipulation of a component of equity upside. This would dilute existing shareholders. But so it should. NO MORE RISK-FREE TAX PAYER FUNDED BAILOUTS - DEMAND EQUITY UPSIDE, OR WALK

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/qantas-virgin-and-the-broader-issu...

Are we ever going to be able to take neoliberal economic concepts seriously after this is over?

Don't worry, there will still be plenty of believers.
In 12 months we will be back to the usual nonsense

In 12 months we will be back to the usual nonsense

They're going to have to get really creative to make it happen though. The hedge funds have been the proponents of the buyback sham. The CEOs of course benefit, but are now deserting the sinking ships like rats.

Mark Twain said bury the bankers facing down so they don't dig their way back out or something similar. They'll never give up trying to parasitize you and your productive output

The other drawback to contactless payments for small retailers, they have to assume the risk for stolen cards , or other fraud. They have no defence against this , whereas larger organisations could have video or other ways of identifying serial fraud/ theft.

In a perfect demonstration of the ineptitude of the Covid response and of the contempt held towards the community at large, the Health Ministry's 'Current Cases' list has 17 instances of 'Details to come'. So we cannot work out for ourselves whether we are at risk from any recent flights, and take precautions accordingly. 17 out of 39 is just under half.......

I think actually the older ones with 'details to come' is because the travel occurred 48 hours or more before symptoms developed, therefore they're judged not to be infectious during the flights and so the details aren't required.

But they should say that instead of 'details to come'.

Thing is no one knows, the easiest answer is inexperience, poor planning and incompetence.

Here is Singapore web page. For contrast.
See the level of detail they go to.
The url let's people have an "E consultation".

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

Moving in the right direction

And here is a new redone version of New Zealand virus page.
Look & feel much more like Singapore.
Gee, it's been like pulling teeth!!

https://covid19.govt.nz/?utm_source=instagram&utm_medium=omd%20social&ut...

Keep going, more like Singapore, keep going!!

.dp

How do you know that ? is this just an "innocent explanation" you have just made up as it is your habit ?

I don't make up innocent explanations.

I know it because I've been watching the MoH press conferences that give at 1pm. For the last 3 days in a row they've said that for people who travelled more than 48 hours before they developed symptoms the travel information is not relevant and so won't be on the website.

I'm putting two and two together and suggesting that the ones that say "information to come", especially the older ones where they have no excuse not to have that information, is where they've left these cases instead of updating to say what I've said above.

"putting 2 and 2 together" = making it up .

"Where public health staff have fully investigated the 11 cases there is again a clear link to overseas travel. In several other cases, the test results were only confirmed this morning and these are still being followed up fully."

So - no , they are not withholding travel info because they think it is not relevant ; they do not have it ( but are perhaps hoping to find a travel link ).
Do not know where it came from = community spread ; they are simply putting off uttering the words.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120462635/coronaviru...

"putting 2 and 2 together" = making it up .

No, extrapolating from what the MoH said would be on their website, and then observing what is on their website and then noticing that there is a very large overlap between what they said would be there and what is there, even if the language on the site is a little misleading.

"So - no , they are not withholding travel info because they think it is not relevant"

Go listen to the full press briefing at 1pm today, and the one from Thursday, they clearly said that if they travelled more than 48 hours before having symptoms then they wouldn't be sharing travel information because it's not relevant.

One or more persons embarking the Ruby Princess cruise ship in Sydney was C19 positive, either passenger(s) or crew. By disembarkation at the cruise conclusion in Sydney 4 passengers are confirmed as having contracted the virus. Anyone who has done cruising will be familiar with the tight theatre seating, multiple close quarters queuing at meal times, crowded security screening when going ashore, etc. Then there is TePapa, one of the many available excursion options; 'gather closer in people for this interpretative commentary from your guide'. Good luck with tracing potential contacts at our national museum. Just hope we got lucky and the C19 people opted for a waterfront stroll. Tick, tick.

The Kiwi dollar has recovered as sharply today as it fell yesterday. It is now at 57.3 USc and up +2c from this time yesterday.
Hmmmm....Norway Loses One-Fifth of Its Oil Wealth as Krone Collapses, Analysts Say

According to experts' calculations, Norway's Oil Fund has decreased in value by 23 percent since New Year, suffering the "biggest drop" in its decades-long history.

Norway's Oil Fund has taken a serious dent amid plummeting oil prices and an ongoing fall of the krone, broadcaster NRK reported.

Despite the Oil Fund currently being listed as worth NOK 300 billion more than at the turn of the year, this is merely an illusion, as none of its assets are in kroner, experts estimated.

“Rarely have developments been more misleading than now. In reality, we have lost more than one fifth of our oil wealth”, Nordea investment director Robert Næss told NRK.

According to Næss's calculations, while the Fund's value in Norwegian kroner has risen by 3 percent since New Year, the reality measured in US dollars or euros is quite the opposite.

At the end of last year, the Oil Fund was worth about $1,149 billion. Now, it is worth around $882 billion, a decrease of 23 percent. The fall is so drastic that it equals the value of the entire 2020 state budget not once, but twice.

Let's seriously examine ACC, KiwiSaver and the Super Fund in the public domain.

Norway took a perfectly good supply of low-entropy energy, and turned it into a collection of digital '1's and '0's.

Admittedly they did some good infrastructural things at home, but - and they're one of the smartest nations around - what they did was stupid.

Economics has a lot to answer for.

its only short term, in two years people will be amazed by the increase in value, we are in for another period of mass money supply from all nations to keep a depression away, and it has to be spent somewhere

Looking for contacts. What does Central Christchurch Friday 13th, between 6 pm and 8pm, mean?

The contact tracing questions need tighten up, be more specific. We gotta hope this in not how all contact tracing is going! Using the tourists case number for example would also help.
Because the Christchurch part of their intelligence is next to worthless.

The board (SDHB) has released information about where people may have come in contact with the Spanish tourist who was diagnosed on Thursday.

These locations relate to possible casual contacts that can't be identified through contact tracing:

— Central Christchurch, March 13, between 6pm and 8pm.
— Dunedin Railway Station, March 16, between 12pm and 3pm.
— Lumsden, March 17, between 6pm and 7pm.

The risk in these instances is considered to be low. Those who believe they may have come into contact with the man are advised to monitor their health and call Healthline on 0800 358 5453 if they develop symptoms such as a cough, fever, sore throat or difficulty breathing.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120436829/no-new-covid...

South Korea said that contact tracing that is 80% effective is enough to make a big dent in the transmission of the virus.

Remember that while they're doing their best to eliminate community transmission, they're still expecting that it is going to happen. The point is to detect it quickly and stamp it out anywhere that it does happen.

I'm picking we will all be locked down as of Monday, announced Sunday.

Your access to our unique content is free - always has been. But ad revenues are diving so we need your direct support.

Become a supporter

Thanks, I'm already a supporter.