A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; many rate changes, shifting to economic lockdown, NZ QE, swap rates dive, NZD soft, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; many rate changes, shifting to economic lockdown, NZ QE, swap rates dive, NZD soft, & more
ID 22702269 © Daniaphoto | Dreamstime.com

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut its 18 month fixed rate to a market-leading 3.05%. They also trimmed other fixed rates. Update: Westpac has cut its one and two year fixed rates, but not standard rates.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ changed a range of TD rates, many less than one year down but one key one up, for 18 month to 2.65%. Heartland Bank is offering a loyalty bonus strictly for existing clients only, of +10 bps for both their 100 day and ten month terms. Treasury has chopped the interest paid on Kiwi Bonds, going from 1.00% to 0.50% for terms 6 months and 1 year. For and 2 years and 4 years, the rate falls from 1.00% to 0.75%.

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LEVEL 3, SOON LEVEL 4
IMPORTANT: Read this. There are important details to come. Read the details here. Don't go to work outside your property unless you are providing an essential service.

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RBNZ ANNOUNCES QE
The RBNZ will buy up to $30 bln of Government bonds as the negative impacts of the emergency intensify in New Zealand and financial conditions tighten 'unnecessarily'.

CARRYING ON ONLINE
The interest.co.nz team will be working from home, and some minimal office activity. But we each have full access to our systems, so we should be able to provide a full service, including all rate and data updates. But expect a lower and narrower flow of information as our economy shuts down.


You get our daily news coverage free. Corporates are starting to pull advertising. That is a big problem for us. You enjoy reading our website, and I am asking you to Become a Supporter now. I personally want to say a big Thank You. (If you are already a Supporter, you're my hero.)


EXPLOSIVE RISES EXTEND
There are now more than 100 cases identified in New Zealand, and clearly this will rise fast from here. Community transmission seems to be confirmed. Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 336,000 of officially confirmed cases, up +100% in a week. There are now 255,500 cases outside China and almost all of them are in five core countries. Italy is up +6000 from just this morning's tally. The US is also up +6000 cases from this morning, nine times more than one week ago. Most other countries are not exploding like these two however.

HUGE FALLS
The NZX50 Capital Index is down very sharply today, down -10.2% so far. [ Error removed. Apologies.] The ASX200 has opened down -7.5%. Tokyo opened higher, but is now down to even. Shanghai has opened -2.2% lower and Hong Kong is -4.2% lower at their opening.

LOCAL SWAP RATES CRASH
Wholesale swap rates have dived today. The two year is down -16 bps on the day, the five year is down -25 bps and the ten year is also down -32 bps from this time on Friday. The 90-day bank bill rate is also down -9 bps to 0.58%. In Australia, their swap curve is down too, but in a much sharper bear fall than NZ. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -14 bps from this morning to 0.93%. The China Govt 10yr is down -8 bps at 2.71%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -11 bps to 1.46%. The UST 10yr has also fallen during today's trading to now be at 0.82%, a daily fall of -6 bps so far.

NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar has fallen about -½c to 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down to 98 AUc and a -½c fall. Against the euro we are now at 52.6 and also a -½c dip. That means the TWI-5 is now at 64.1.

BITCOIN DOWN
The price of all cryptos is lower with Bitcoin is now at US$5,872 and down -3% from this morning. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below, and today it is worth taking a look.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

165 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

David, are you suggesting the NZX is closing for business at the end of today for the Level 4 period ?

"The NZX will close at the end of trading today"

Apologies. I got that wrong. See this.

Thanks for the correction David.

15
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If you have debt on property please tell me how you are able to sleep? I expect 50% reduction in NZ house prices when this is over. It is the greatest ever reset!

After the Asia Financial Crisis in HK it took 5 years for property to bottom out. Levels were about 35% of pre crash levels. Things move slowly though, it's the lack of liquidity at the start and the slow realization there is no bid.

If you want to see expectations on pricing here look at Argosy Property and Ryman Heathcare (which is actually a property company) share prices. Both are down about 40 ~ 50% from their highs.

17
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If you don't have a mortgage or are near to paying your mortgage I would be sleeping fine. But if you own multiple properties with significant debt, or a recent buyer, I wouldn't be sleeping well at all. But then again I wouldn't have been the last 5 years given the risk built into the system.

Like a baby, but also like a professional investor.

You haven’t participated in ‘dragons den’ by chance?

Agreed the banks will have some defaults for next 24 months and then massive profits.
Also how high do you think they could push interest rates in a few years.
One bright note when my children grow up in 10 years they may be able to buy again.

Foreign Buyer, am sleeping like a baby. Got a paid-for property and liquid assets in three different countries.

Been warning for the leverage trap for like, since I was a baby. Good luck y'all, time for me to leave this site.

Good for you my friend.

You must have missed 1 news tonight stock of houses down and prices up. Everyone still talking up the market.

MSM gets paid to spruik. They have sold their soles. They have let down recent FHB so much. Shameful.

Was there ridiculous background music during the segment to enhance the gravitas?

My Debt to Household income is 133%. My LVR is around 50%. Purchase price in 2017 was $15k more than what the vendor paid for the property in 2007. Mortgage, rates and insurance combined are about 20% less than equivalent market rent in the Wairarapa. My job enables me to 100% work from home, for a company that has been around 100 years. My wife is a teacher. If we were both to lose our jobs, we will still be reasonably comfortable on the jobseeker benefit + all the other wonderful entitlements. But a 50% reduction in house prices would see us with no equity, so we could still be at the mercy of the bank albeit at the back of the queue i imagine.

And still with a roof over your heads... good position to be in and can still probably upgrade at the bottom for a bargain. nice!

I doubt they will be allowed to drop that much. The government will just keep pumping cash into the banks and the economy until they take off again.

Nope! there is always that point where hyper inflation is a risk and when everything else is in recession = 3rd world country...

When this is over?

How does it possibly finish?
Has anyone thought through what people's appetite for spending to refloat the consumption bubble will be in 3 mths/6mths/12 mths...???
Close to zilch
It's a one way street

10
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Given the extraordinary and unfolding events taking place, should the government signal that bank deposits will be insured given the current mounting risks .

In Australia they guarantee 250k deposits? They are the same banks as here? Why are we put at risk like this?

17
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Don't think JK and the National team post GFC wanted people to save...they wanted them to spend and buy houses so we could be rockstars.

In Australia they guarantee 250k deposits? They are the same banks as here? Why are we put at risk like this?

Why? Because we have OBR. John Key swears by it.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/63722/pm-john-key-defends-open-bank-reso...

there will be lots of mortgagee sales with people walking away with nothing before the banks even feel it. Then lots of others will still be paying the banks. OBR will be about some smaller banks in high risk areas of lending.

I wonder what the banks will do at a mortgagee auction when there is no one bidding at the level of the mortgage left owing? I think they might be forced into writing off some debt.

If it's a rental, they could always approach the tenants and accept their highest bid? Maybe the tenants could rent the property back to their ex-Landlord (if they pass a credit check)?

Banks must really be dreading loans going into arrears or completely defaulting. Loan portfolios will likely need a good purge.

Bank shareholders are exercising their concerns. Witness ANZ's share price fall. Surely TD interest rate cuts are not warranted since depositors remain unsecured creditors of what can only be considered a risky venture. Lower deposit rates confirm tighter monetary conditions, in so much, as only the most creditworthy with the most pristine collateral will be extended credit and that excludes the majority of depositors. The RBNZ accepts only the best collateral when extending reserves as an exchange at it's open market operations window.

Credit risk has never properly been priced into bank deposit rates.

In that case we'll find out how many banks have understood and effectively applied credit policies along with which have been winging it. They must be ruthlessly trying to preserve cash (e.g. cutting costs, staff etc.) already knowing that the size and margins won't support inefficiencies.

Some levity from Mark Steyn (who seems to know every lyric from every song and show for the last century), while lamenting the closure of the Deerfield Testicle Festival:

The who-got-it-from-whom shtick always reminds me of this syphilitic round from Candide, music by Leonard Bernstein, words by John LaTouche, sung by Pangloss:

Oh my darling Paquette
She is haunting me yet
With a dear souvenir
I shall never forget:
'Twas a gift that she got
From a sea-faring Scot
He received, he believed
In a shallot
In a shallot from his dame
Who was certain it came
With a kiss from a Swiss
She'd forgotten his name
But he told her that he
Had been given it free
From a sweet little cheat in Paree
Then a man from Japan
Then a moor from Iran
Though the moor isn't sure
Where the whole thing began
But the gift you can see
Had a long pedigree
When at last it was passed
On to me!

If easing fails it will be bank bail-ins next. Hide your money or send it to a country who will look after it with guarantees. Whatever you do, don't buy property. Prices are about to fall off a cliff.

After the GFC banks have been subjected to a very high level of scrutiny. I can assure you the big 4 banks in NZ are very well prepared for another financial meltdown. Besides, this time it's the airline+tourism industry will take the most hit, Air NZ just got thier 900M package from the govt, I think they will be fine.

Why is the RBNZ extending inert central bank reserves in exchange for various types of collateral if banks are well prepared?

Maybe they're expecting much worse than GFC? But thanks to tightening regulations after GFC, if we didn't have that, the banks will be in a lot worse shape this time round.

Saying so doesn't make it so.

Sounds EXACTLY like what Lehmans and the US was saying literally 3 weeks before Lehmans collapsed and the GFC was a blood bath

Put all your money onto the credit card. Exempt from interest earnings but potentially exempt from bail ins???

If you look at your online accounts page, you will see that your credit card account is just that, another account. Nice try.

What if it's a GEM Visa?

Senior Aussie banker and ex-BNZ CEO flees the sinking ship.

https://www.theadviser.com.au/breaking-news/40157-senior-nab-exec-to-ste...

I though I was confused about bank runs , its the bankers that actually run.

There have been slowing moving queues inside banks for days, people are withdrawing lots of cash. LOTS.

ASX 200 financials down a further 10.2 percent. With all the additional support , red alarms are still going.

Yip - I made the comment on Sat that talking to friends and family and many had withdrawn tens of thousands and were hiding it around their houses, gardens....One family over a $100,000. Nothing from the banks news wise but wonder where what their VIX level is...

There isn't "lots" to withdraw compared with total bank assets offsetting deposits and other liabilities - RBNZ tabled evidence

I wonder, could they have corporate super schemes and/or stock options, that can only be withdrawn after leaving the institution?

NAB have to be ruthless, for years they've had the highest overheads of the big four and underperformed their peers. They are running out of investor patience.

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Spare a thought for the new house buyers in Pukehina , BOP. Its a small beach town East of Tauranga. The average asking house prices have gone from 300k to over a million in 5 years. Most are second property holiday baches. This town fell the most "by far" in NZ after the GFC as owners scrambled to sell their second home. This will be good market to watch. I certainly wouldnt want to be the local agent who probaly told the new purchasers what a good deal they were getting... ouch!

Spare a thought for the new house buyers in Pukehina , BOP. Its a small beach town East of Tauranga. The average asking house prices have gone from 300k to over a million in 5 years. Most are second property holiday baches. This town fell the most "by far" in NZ after the GFC as owners scrambled to sell their second home. This will be good market to watch. I certainly wouldnt want to be the local agent who probaly told the new purchasers what a good deal they were getting... ouch!

Could be a good opportunity for those who want to rent these properties at low-ball offers. Chances are they're not going to sell and the owners will be looking to get something.

Yeah, there was blood on the beaches all down the way post gfc, I lived in the region and heard some very sad stories. Banks were way too aggressive calling in loans, I suspect we may hear more and it might pave the way for homeowner debt medition legislation so its possible to prevent the banks turfing you out simply because you cant find work for six months, a rent from the bank till you get a job scenario, then when you get a job resume your repayments?

Yes, its called a mortgage holiday - I suspect that will be what the Government is working on with our retail banks.

thats fine while there is only a handfill but when prices are plummeting and the numbers grow, the banks will flee to safety... 100% guaranteed

This is pukehina that's has no local employment so relys on Tauranga, about a hour commute away on a very good day. No schools , or sports or almost anything except houses and a beach.

Sounds good to me. But I guess you'll be able to find good options in places like Whangarei Heads

NZ Property Fund (Smartshares) fell by a whopping 13.95% today. Now down 38.5%.

Yikes!

Edit: looks to me like it was ‘only’ down 15%.

Exactly, this would be the liquid equivalent to peoples' sentiments on property.
But real property transaction values will likely take years to slowly deflate, as those of us who survive the Covid-financial-meltdown wait carefully to figure out just when the property game is ready to start again

It won't. Once this lot has passed through there's going to be a change in the way credit is extended ( there has to be, there's a lot of new/accumulated debt that needs repaying/restructuring). Commercial banks, if they are still about, will not have the credit creation power that they have had up until now. Allowing debt to be extended for speculative property transactions would not only be a waste of a precious resource, but it's also not going to be available to waste. Our national Debt Ceiling ( borrowing capacity) is going to have been reached at serviceable rates of interest.

15
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The whole idea of using equity in a property to leverage and buy another property was financial suicide in my opinion - basically a ponzi scheme that was never going to end well.

My thoughts as well.

I think the fall out of this is priced into/or is being priced into bank share valuations now - but its yet to be seen in asset valuations...

But wait, I thought A Church said property prices double every 10 years without fail

Will be interesting to see the Oyster Fund who I have complained about their valuers providing unrealistic ratchet step ups in values at each reporting period. NZ valuers have proven with their Hisco valuation that they can be bought.

Time to see who's naked as the tide goes out.

Fletcher's in an attempt to transfer wealth to the board, and who decided to start buying back 300 million of its shares ( priced between 4.40 and 5.67 ) from September 9 2019, and seemingly pausing on 6 March 2020 , have spent in the region of 150 million with today's share price now down to 3.14 . It's what you get when you become greedy and incompetent.

Cue Nelson from the Simpsons

Clusterf*&k. I wonder who advised them on this. Or were they just following the herd.

The history of buybacks is fascinating, typically a great way to destroying value for shareholders (and, in the case of AirNZ, leave the company needing a bail out loan.) Amazing to me shareholders allow it.

the shareholders love it and often lobby it because the instant demand hike pushes shares up so the shareholders offload at a premium as do the executives taking a huge profit while thecompanies cash reserves are totally depleted. all these sharews off again before any bailout is put on the tablecompanies should be made to sell those shares off againb

What's the cliche about 'wisdom of crowds'?

Actually, if you look at majority of the world's largest indices (such as S&P, FTSE, ASX, Hang Seng, Nikkei), most of them have dropped more than 30% from their Feb Peak. The performance of the fund is just an early reaction of the property market, which I think it will hit in the next 6 months.

David, My daughter is in Hastings and she tells me Pak and save is being looted, also some fires WTH is going on? Anyway you can check on this?

Andrew

When will governments learn that people can't be trusted? Not to self-isolate, not to abstain from panic buying and not to quarantine. The human animal is dangerous and can't be trusted. If you want the populace to do something it must be instructed to do so at the barrel of a gun. We better deploy the army and armed police keep the peace.

Humans are far from rational. Well, most of us at least.
We exaggerate our ability and judgement

How many daughters do you have Andrew? You seem to have one for every occasion.

I have four.

You are relatively new to interest.co. Andrew has spoken of his daughters and their number in earlier times and he has more than you Korki.

Enjoy your family. :-)

Good old Hastings. I grew up there and traveled for 10 years arround the world and I still think of Hastings as the most violent place I've ever been.

Bob can fix it Mr Orr, Young Ha was hiding the glue from Caroline.

Good comment on Fletchers, I knew they were buying but who would have anticipated this virus? I stupidly bought 5000 just before Xmas when ASB Securities raters, Morningstar, had an 'accumulate' on it.
It just goes to show even purportedly specialist share-raters don't know what's coming from left field.

Good comment on Fletchers, I knew they were buying but who would have anticipated this virus? I stupidly bought 5000 just before Xmas when ASB Securities raters, Morningstar, had an 'accumulate' on it.
It just goes to show even purportedly specialist share-raters don't know what's coming from left field.

27
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After this we need to get rid of knighthoods etc for shifty politicians, bankers and thuggish sports people and reward the real heroes who are the doctors, nurses and scientists on the frontlines now and every day.

15
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JK brought back knighthoods so he could recieve one? It would be the type of thing expected of Xi or Putin. How did NZ turn into this type of banana republic?

Everyone was getting rich...the property owners, the shareholders....why worry about being prudent and wise if you can be rich today? Capital gains tax...not required....foreign buyers...which foreigner will pay the most?

13
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John Key was great for John Key! But then this was a man who was a professional gambler of other peoples money, who the financially aspirational worshipped like the second coming of Jesus, until like any good gambler he ‘knew when to fold’em’ and bailed quick smart.

RIP Kenny

I think you mean the supermarket workers, posties, and pizza delivery guys.

They are the ones that are going to be dealing with the anger/frustration, running the gauntlet of being exposed to the virus, and all for minimum wage.

I don't think there will be pizza deliveries - can't see that as an essential service. It's a restaurant. I'm assuming all takeaways will close.

Well put

Quite a day. In time, this will have proved to be a masterclass in disaster management...we've just gotta get through it.

How not to lesson!

Mismanagement got us to the point where this was the only rational choice. I'm glad they finally did it. But very angry at the non-quarrantining of arrivals that put us in this position

We have not even got to understand 1/100th of the ramifications of this for our people

I said we should lock everything down for a month and now we are. Nice. Can catch up with my YouTube old British TV series now. Currently watching Enemy at the Door, Wings and Sherlock Holmes with Jeremy Brett.

Zach - see if you can get hold of "The Last Ship" tv series.

Last ship is fantastic. We watch it sea all the time in the Navy.

chur the puss

Was this before or after you said that everyone was overreacting?

After.

Who'd ever book a cruise again?

How much of our cash is safe in the Banks ?

Whats the limit of deposits g'teed per person ?

Zero.

OZ (same banks) 250k

I'm getting really tired of worry-warts going on about "muh bank deposits", "Oooh property prices gonna tank", "MASSIVE unemployment", "the end of the world!", "We're all doomed!".

Look we are all just taking some time out for four weeks.Stay at home and don't worry. Enjoy the break. Things will get back to normal but we have to do this. Getting back to normal will happen but not if we do nothing. We are now taking some action. Keep positive!

Depends where you sit. Some people are well positioned for this. DGM scenarios are not good for the majority, but they also represent good opportunities for a minority.

Exactly, this won't be a 4 week thing. To keep on top of it, it will be a rinse and repeat thing. We will stamp it out here (if we are lucky) then keep importing new cases from overseas (Kiwi's returning home) and have to repeat the lock-down for next 18 months (vaccine delivery if lucky)

No. Quarantine arrivals and introduce improved test and track tech to prevent flare ups.

My students in China have been doing this for 45 days so far!

Something we agree on. If you look at the sales of shares as a percentage of total securities issued - many are a fraction of a percent. One example is South Port - according to NZX today 256 shares were traded over 13 transactions meaning only 0.0000098 % of shares were traded and yet the price dropped 35 cents or 5.51% (I suspect these were all robot trades). ASB Securities shows there are buyers for 144 shares and sellers for 35,547 and there is a big difference between what people are prepared to pay and what people are willing to sell (40 cents) - this share is most likely an exception in regard to the number of shares sold. Another example is Ryman - 2,434,550 share were sold - meaning a total of 0.0048691% of shares were traded. Again sellers outnumber buyers by a factor of 5 ( and the valuation by Morningstar is $13.00 and was issued on the 20th of March - current price is $6.64). Another Napier Port Holdings $2.52 - just above it's list price lat year) - 0.00102% of shares traded yet the price dropped 31 cents but in this case there are far more buyers than sellers (almost 3 times). There will be countless others. It is the marginal seller that is currently setting the price and they are panicking (it always is the marginal buyer or seller who sets the price). The other thing to remember is that there are buyers - as evidenced by the trades that are being made - the market hasn't frozen yet (turnover today was $286,893,422 according to the NXZ).

I'm still working and will be as I work for an essential service. Working from home, the commute is short - I can dress how I like.

I dare you to wear a batman suit tomorrow

Singlet, undies and gumboots!

I generally agree with that sentiment about positivity. However, this is a financial website and we should be objective and alive to the real setbacks that this is going to generate.
I don't think this is going to be the end of the world in economic terms. Talks of 50% drops in property are rubbish.
We will probably see minor to moderate falls in Auckland, and large falls (20-30%) in a small number of locations, such as Queenstown.
Some of the small regional cities such as Palmerston North, Napier or Dunedin will also get hit.

Unemployment is going to be a big issue though. Today's announcement will help, but I still think the rate will rise to at least 7-8%. And as I've said before the elephant in the room is kiwis in Aus who lose their jobs. We could easily see tens of thousands return this year, without jobs, and that would make the unemployment rate go higher.

If the govt play this right, they can use unemployed construction workers coming back from Aus to assist them on progressing a massive state housing programme.

Talks of 50% drops in property are rubbish.

And why is that?

Over $2 Billion of work ready to go in Dunners.

Have we had a secret coup d'etat? The State has grabbed enormous powers and thrown away all restraint. I hope this story ends well. Are we still a democracy or have we now become a bureaucratic oligarchy, without even realising it?

We find out at the end, when we see how much of the power is returned to us.

aha..finally RW surfaces....and indeed it is a bloodletting...globalism and its neolib cohorts have been cornered and gunned down in broad daylight...the corporations have been sent reeling...what will happen next?

You foreign buyers got locked out of buying dairy farms.Food factories will hold their relative values.

no they won't, they will be seized by the state and returned to the populace...

Any mention on where the new 30 odd cases are?

Details about the latest tranche of patients who have tested positive for the coronavirus have been released by the Ministry of Health https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12319178

I don't have much faith in the lockdown. If you leave the house in the next four weeks, then we are just going to need another four weeks, and another, and another.

But it is a losing battle. Already today...

a) the PM is still saying walks are ok.
In Italy, Spain, France, etc... You are arrested if outside. You can only leave your house to source food and/or medicine.

b) the amount of parents at school this afternoon (and fully aware of the restrictions) organizing playdates to remedy the boredom over the next four weeks.

c) the amount of people still expecting to socialise. Nah, we can't drink at the pub on Saturday - but Joe's house is OK.

For everyone's sake. Just STAY AT HOME!

For the most part New Zealand doesn't have apartment living - that I think would be the worst environment for transmitting the virus - if people use communal areas (think lifts, stairwells etc). While I have neighbours they are far enough away to not be a real issue. Going for a walk where I live I generally may only see one or two people - cross over the road so you can to avoid them - simple.

Yes, that much-reviled Suburban Sprawl has spatial isolation baked right in there......

Cars are now 'Mobile self-isolation vehicles, and Public Transport is now 'Mobile contamination vehicles.'

My neighbours this evening are having a party. They’re in their 40s and obviously idiots. 18-20 somethings aren’t the only problem.

There is a whole heap of people in society like this. They will be the reason we will probably continue with level 4 measures for a few months.

Just wondering if the wunderkids from Rocket Lab could come down to earth for a while and manufacture some face masks and anti-bacterial spray for my local pharmacy.

Neither needs Rocket Science. Textiles plus 3D printing for masks, breweries for alcohol-based antibacterials. Feet on the ground.......

And space doesn't need any more satellites.

12
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When this is all over, I want the Boomers to wear some of the pain caused by the steps taken to save their lives.

This means that when the bill for all this comes due (and it will), they don't dodge it - we want wealth taxes and CGT etc, not the jacking up of income taxes.

Us baby boomers have already given you the flashest toys ever in the history of the earth: computers and Iphones. You're acting now like spoilt children. I admit these distractions allowed us to accumulate property unhampered. But you wouldn't put your Iphones down.

Nonsense.

Higher taxes / levies to support the unemployed through this - I am all for it , will pay my share ( if I am lucky to stay employed myself as seems likely at present ).

Remake the world to fit your socialist wet dream - take a hike.

Poor falla, no more avo smash and latte. We all feel sorry for you, it's sounds really tough. Please tell us more.
No not really. Pull up your socks and get on with it.

Says the fellow pushing the "poor landlord" narrative a day or two ago.

Indeed...one wonders at the level of self-absorption even the replies to your comment seem to suggest.

What has happened to xingmowang? Was he recalled to party headquarters?

The NZ Security Intelligence Service has had a talk with him.

The NZ Security Intelligence Service has had a talk with him.

A definition of 'Essential Services'. Note that this list does not seem to be extant on any Gubmint site - a perfectly typical lagged response.

Could a case of the average minister.

https://youtu.be/KgUemV4brDU

Anyone saying I am scare mongering now.
The army will soon be helping with lockdowns etc and anyone thinking house prices are not going down are living in a bubble still.
I am picking 30 plus percent but some areas upto 50 percent that are tourism related.
Also was picking NZX down to 6000 soon.
Just remember if you are waiting to purchase a house it is now in your court to strike the price.

Keep in mind our Army is only 0.1% of the population - not like some other places. So it's going to have a job on its hands!
And as for house prices falling? Yes, they will - but reluctantly and with a whole heap of propaganda to the contrary so as not to scare the horses.
Tourism areas are in for an extended very bad time. So much so that I doubt you'd even want to consider buying there. What will you do there after you've skied all the trails and hiked all the routes drunk in all the bars (when they reopen, of course!) and have had no job to support that? And as for renting out any aquisition there? Good luck with that! The place(s) is going to be wash with vacant 'homes'. Much better to take advantage of that than buy?
Anyway. Yes. interesting times ahead, and tough times for many. Good times for far fewer and uncertain times for all.

'Yes. interesting times ahead, and tough times for many. Good times for far fewer and uncertain times for all.'

Phrase of the year!!!

Hopefully we can use this time to think of improvements that can be made longterm like for Kiwis.
Bring back some factorys to NZ to produce more things would be my main idea.
Just think of all the wood sitting at ports.

The army and police road blocks and checkpoints cannot be far away. Also the government needs to stagger people arriving at the supermarkets some how. Some sort of id with the day of the week and the time you can shop. Not only will this limit panic buying it will limit numbers in store so you can at least try to maintain safe distance.

Yes now the schools are closed next the army.
Also remember the level 5 will be total lockdown may not need it but it will def be used as last resort.
What is needed now is better info for keeping safe and better controls and cleaning at supermarkets etc otherwise we will need level 5.
I think the most risk is supermarkets that will spread it further.
If somehow everyone got food delivered for 1 month that would save a lot of cases.

Good luck selling or buying. Open homes canned. More importantly, the critical AML / KYC processes needed to legally buy or sell are now impossible (e.g. having a lawyer or JP site your personal ID and verify documents). LINZ to shut no doubt as well. All law firms shut as well. Probably real estate agencies too.

Haven't heard much from the usual suspects today.

No Gen hub hub & houseworks are out prepping.

Solicitors can do this by facetime. Don't need to be in person.

Rental properties listed on Trademe for the Queenstown Lakes District are up to 126. They are usually at about 20.
Some of the advertised rents are in la la land. Even if they halve the rents they will be lucky to tenant them.

Air BnB market destroyed. Picking a few Queenstown owners soon to learn what "margin call" means.

If you have cash and or protected incomes just wait a little longer. Popcorn time.

Interest.co is the home of some of the most doom and gloom merchants in the world.
Yes there will be blood on the floor for many, those that have investments in the sharemarket!
Reality is that we all need a roof over our heads unless you desire living on the streets.
Of course the overpriced areas will have some price drops as many won’t have the assets now due to the equities losses.
Investors who have been in the industry for awhile certainly wont be needing to sell as their rental returns will be providing income like no other investment currently will be.
You can talk about these house drops as much as you can, but seriously it is only because you have not been able to purchase your own property.
Rest assured if investors are needing to sell their homes especially Auckland, there will be many tenants needing to look for new accommodation!
Yes things have changed for many and it is horrible,what is going on but those that are predicting massive price drops throughout NZ are dreaming!!!!

No job, no money, what to sell to stay afloat? The car, the boat? They will be worth 50 cents on the dollar.
Most out there swimming naked and the tide is going out.
You don't happen to have a boat do you, I've been waiting to buy one but have held off because this was going to happen with or without the WuFlu. Also looking for a late model Land Cruiser double cab ute low K's. Maybe a jetski for the kids as well.

Houses listed in Tauranga holding steady now after a surge in listings this week. Now keeping an eye on the Porsche 911 Turbo market as the toys will be the first to go. Going to be pretty hard to arrange pickups during a level 5 event however, in fact it just got very hard for us to even get our mail and I figure the courier just stopped delivering now the Puhoi general store just closed its doors today. I guess ideally the government would like to "Freeze" everything where it is right now to prevent chaos.

A 911 convertible would ba an awesome dog car. My Rottweiler would look great in that with goggles and his oilskin jacket. I'll have to get a studded collar so I can be gangsta.
Stopped at an open home just down the road today for a peek. The agent rang me and asked what I think it'll fetch. 'Yeah, two months ago $850k easy now, I can't even begin to guess'.

"Interest.co is the home of some of the most doom and gloom merchants in the world."

"Doom and gloom merchants " - That is the narrative that the property price optimists tell themselves why people are against buying property and those are the labels that they have chosen to use.

It's not about being a pessimist in general, or envy whatsoever.

It's about the fact that house valuations are very vulnerable in some areas, and the associated debt levels to finance those property purchases. Take Queenstown as one such example.

If property valuations in those areas were much lower and household debt levels were at reasonable levels (say debt to income of 2x), then buying would be recommended.

But new owner occupiers, paying current prices, taking on debt to income ratios of 6x or higher, and debt service ratios of 40% or higher, leaves little margin for error and much less financial flexibilty to handle a sudden and unexpected shock (like coronavirus for example). At a debt to income of 6x, the loss of one income of the household puts more financial stress on a household than if the household debt to income is 2x.

The warnings are to owner occupiers and first home buyers who are not sufficiently savvy to recognise property price risks. These people have worked and saved their deposit to buy a house. They should not be collateral damage in a property frenzy. If an unexpected shock occurred, they could lose their home or hard earned deposit.

I have seen hard working people lose their financial security - it takes a mental and physical toll on the whole family. Sometimes, it can lead to suicide. If we can prevent such tragedies, then our objective has been met.

If caring about the financial security and mental health of hard working fellow citizens who wish to own their own home is a crime, then I am 100% guilty.

Remember, those that are providing warnings have little personal financial benefit from speaking up. This is very different to the numerous property promoters and their vested financial interests.

The Man 2 suggests "We are dreaming".......
Yes, we are. But not the pleasant dream of contentment.
It's been a restless night so far ( both literally and metaphorically! How many New Zealander tossed and turned last night with Level 4 trepidations?).
Sadly, the Restlessness won't last. It will be replaced with the reality of what many of us suspect we are already in - an economic Nightmare.

Some advise please.

Brought a new house 6 weeks ago. Current. House on the market with little interest for 2 weeks. Have another house under renovation which would be ready to go to market in 2 weeks, bit will now be after the lockdown.
I can afford to keep all 3 but would like to sell at least 1. Should I cut my losses on the one already on the market and lower the price?

I'll assume that's a genuine question, so here's one possible answer:
There's nothing you can do at the moment. Who is going to buy in this market - both physically ( no open homes etc) and economically ( as you are worried about prices falling, so will any potential buyer).
I suggest you calculate 'What will it go for when it all settles down?" - that's your call - Some will say "Higher! Property is the best investment". Some say "30% lower! Who is going to have the ability to pay more?" and list it at what you decide; leave it alone and don't expect any bites. But who knows! You just might, and at least you'll feel like you are 'doing something'..
You have 4 weeks + to watch and see what happens - use the time as wisely as you can....Oh...and Good Luck!

Just wondering, have you got a property mentor to turn to for advice? If so, what are they telling you to do?

In my opinion, property will continue to increase in value. It's Armour plated. There's no "cutting losses", there's no need to leave money on the table, property is a one way bet.

Hahahaha. Hmm. I suppose the returns while AIR BNB were probably spectacular, but not so much if the property is now sitting empty for an extended period of time. Oh the market can be cruel.

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