What happened Wednesday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; retail rate changes, boom before bust, regional rent rises, Auckland dry, ANZ non-compliance update, swaps flatter, NZD soft & more

15th Apr 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
TSB has trimmed a number of savings rates. Nelson Building Society (NBS) has trimmed -10 bps from its six and nine month TD offers to 2.55%. And we missed noting that Kiwibank trimmed its 6 month rate to 2.50% on Tuesday. Gold Bank Finance have also trimmed all their TD rates for terms of 18 months and longer.

THE BOOM BEFORE THE BUST?
The housing market was particularly strong in Auckland before the lockdown, with record median prices and strong sales volumes in March. Many other regions had similar strong results.

HIGHER THAN CPI INFLATION
Food prices increased +3.3% in the year to March, mainly influenced by higher prices for meat, poultry, and fish (up +7.5%), and grocery food (up +3.2%). These increases were partly offset by fruit and vegetable prices, which decreased -1.0% over the year. For April, this data will be collected differently. Rather than visiting stores, it will be sourced from supermarket chain websites (similar to our own grocery basket monitoring).

RENTS UP +3.4% PA
The latest StatsNZ rental price review reveals Auckland rents up just +1.0% on a flow basis (latest bond data) whereas Wellington rents are up +3.5% on that basis. Christchurch rents are up +1.8%. But on a stock basis (taht is, all properties including those that don't change tenants), the rise is +3.4% on a national basis.

DRYING UP
The north of the North Island has had limited rainfall so far in 2020 affecting many communities in a range of ways. The largest city now has its water storage down to just 50% of capacity, when normally at this time of year it would be at 77%. Light rains in the past few days will have zero impact on stopping the emptying of the storage dams. The pipeline from the Waikato River can only supply 17% of the city's needs and only takes less than ½% of the river's average flow.

NO FUTURE?
NZ's only fuel refining business may quit. Refining NZ is considering getting out of refining and becoming solely a fuel importer. It is a tough business featuring very low prices and a very questionable future. If it does, it will have a sharp negative impact on Whangarei and Northland (in much the same way the loss of Tiwai Point would have on Southland).

RBNZ 'CONFIDENT' ANZ WILL RESOLVE HISTORICAL CAPITAL MODEL NON-COMPLIANCE
A Deloitte report ordered by the RBNZ and commissioned by ANZ NZ has highlighted a raft of examples of historical non-compliance by the country's biggest bank with its capital adequacy requirements. The report comes after ANZ NZ was censured by the RBNZ last year, when it also revoked ANZ NZ’s accreditation to model its own capital requirements for operational risk, citing a persistent failure in controls and the director attestation process at the country’s biggest bank dating back five years. The RBNZ says it's working with ANZ NZ to gain assurance the areas of historical non-compliance with capital adequacy requirements are being addressed, and is "confident that ANZ will resolve this matter without issue." ANZ NZ says the reports highlight the need for a broader program of process improvement, which is underway. As part of last year's bank capital review, the RBNZ plans for all of the big four banks, which have used internal models, to use the standardised approach for operational risk modelling.

PROFIT FROM MISFORTUNE
Meat processor Silver Fern Farms has reported a profit of $71 mln after tax for the 2019 year, on revenue of $2.6 bln. In 2018 the company made a profit of $6 mln. The company is owned 50/50 between the farmer co-operative and Chinese company Shanghai Maling Aquarius. The co-operative has zero debt now and a net worth of $304 mln, up +13% in a year. China's tough 2019 for local meat supply (because of ASF) has not only buoyed sales to China, but lifted prices elsewhere, and the company has benefited from these trends, they say.

FLIGHT SIGNALS
Air NZ has cancelled all flights until at least April 26. That is well after the April 22 Level 4 official review and suggests the lockdown won't be lifted then.

LOCAL UPDATE
There are now 1386 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +20 new cases today and more than the +17 increase yesterday. The number of clusters is up to 16. Nine people have died here now. There are now 13 people in hospital with the disease today, with three in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up to 52% and rising fast.

GLOBAL UPDATE
Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 1,920,000 and up +23,000 from this morning. 31% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +20,000 in one day to 608,500. The American recovery rate is under 8%. China claims its recovery rate is now up to 94%. Australia now has over 6400 cases, perhaps a peaking but their hospitalisation rate is unusually high, and they have had 62 deaths. Australia's recovery rate is 34%. Reported global deaths now exceed 125,000.

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
The S&P500 ended its session earlier today up +3.1% on expectations the virus emergency will pass soon. Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo are all little-changed today in early trade. Locally, the ASX200 is down -0.8% and the NZX50 Capital Index is up +2.5% so far, building on yesterday's good +2.0% gain.

RATE CUT
China cut its one-year medium-term lending facility by -20 bps to 2.95%, releasing NZ$22 bln into their economy in extra banking system stimulus.

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Yesterday, the swap curve flattened with the two year unchanged but the five and ten year rates falling -3 bps. Update: Today, swap rates fell to new record lows for all terms 1 to 5 years. ~~We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details today yet. We will update this later in the day if they show a significant change~~. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.44%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -5 bps at 0.92%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.55%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -2 bps at 0.96%. The UST 10yr is down -3 bps today to just under 0.74%.

NZ DOLLAR SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has reset lower to 60.8 USc today. Against the Aussie we are also softer at 94.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down to 55.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 66.6, reset lower after the grim IMF review of our prospects.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The price of Bitcoin is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday at US$6,884 despite a rise in-between. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

113 Comments

by Boatman | 15th Apr 20, 7:09pm 1586934597

The lockdown will not be lifted on 22 April , we may go back to level 3 but we will be in lockdown for an extended period

Government has avoided the question , obfuscated , and spun its wheels like a boy racer on P in a cul de sac to avoid committing itself

One can only hope they allow certain sectors sectors to re-open to avoid total catastrophy

by bw | 15th Apr 20, 4:12pm 1586923966

Looks to me, from all the various O/S comments, that he Rest of The World is getting ready to 'live with it'.
If that's the case, and NZ manages to eradicate it, then we are going to have closed borders, to everyone, for a very long time.

by guwop | 15th Apr 20, 4:15pm 1586924158

I hope you don't have much family and friends overseas then?

by mfd | 15th Apr 20, 4:19pm 1586924376

I would hope they would base the decision on the evidence available to them on the 20th. We just have to wait and see what the stats are like.

by Lanthanide | 15th Apr 20, 4:34pm 1586925289

"One can only hope they allow certain sectors sectors to re-open to avoid total catastrophy"

Any limitations or permissions will be by region or possibly town/city, not by business sector.

by Boatman | 15th Apr 20, 8:36pm 1586939794

@Lanthanide you must be employed in the Public sector where your wages and job are guaranteed for you to have such a blase attitude to the economic meltdown we are facing

by Lanthanide | 16th Apr 20, 9:27am 1586986052

No, I'm not employed in the public sector, nor does your comment make a lot of sense.

Jacinda has been fairly clear from the beginning that different regions of the country may be on different levels at different times. She's never once hinted that different business sectors would be at different levels, and in fact in the last couple of days Grant Robertson has pretty much said that would not be the case - level 3 means "safe" businesses can carry on, and any business that can operate in a safe manner will be able to open. It won't be feasible for all businesses to operate to a sufficiently safe level, however.

by Keen Observer | 15th Apr 20, 11:33pm 1586950401

Here's a hint for those try to avoid total catastrophe. The way this Covids work is this, for now they 'must be contained' by severe restriction of people movement. That's it. - Economic 101 capital movement=people movement. Now, put any complex equations/plannings for these industries: tourism, education(foreign student), hospitality/restaurant, hotel/motel/airbnb.. then any industries associated with airlines, cruise ships - It's near impossible, as it can be seen how the infection number increases despite 1st week of lockdown & our 'robust' border screening.

by Hardly | 15th Apr 20, 4:41pm 1586925705

My pick is we will see some things open up on the 28th but still a lot of restrictions. Perhaps business limited to online trade initially. We might see some kids back at school on the 4th of May. I expect some kind of regional lock down and clear system with Auckland and Waikato in a raised alert status for longer than other areas.

by Hardly | 15th Apr 20, 4:48pm 1586926125

My priority would be clearing the South Island and getting that back to BAU. But this requires dealing with the bluff and Christchurch clusters.

by gingerninja | 15th Apr 20, 5:25pm 1586928347

I'm not sure we are asking the right questions. 5 of the 16 clusters are in nursing homes, which concerns me. How many of the population live in nursing homes? A very small number statistically, so why are they over represented in the clusters? Is it because NZ is only testing the clearly symptomatic? It is possible that the vulnerable people in nursing homes being more likely to have symptoms and tested and then showing up in the stats. But how did it get in the nursing homes? No visitors have been allowed for 3 weeks, so it can't be visitors, surely it can only be the staff taking the virus into the nursing homes and the staff just asymptomatic?

How can we claim to have little to no community transmission if 3 weeks into lockdown we have new nursing home clusters popping up? The incubation is average 5 days but 97.5% within 11.5 days.

by Plutocracy | 15th Apr 20, 6:20pm 1586931637

A good chunk of rest home staff are sourced from countries like the Philippines and India, I'd be interested to know if it was introduced from immigrants or if it was spread from New Zealanders.

by bloodymigrant | 15th Apr 20, 6:38pm 1586932700

From New Zealand. Not from overseas.

by Keen Observer | 15th Apr 20, 11:37pm 1586950638

Some scared migrant? actually just like me, mate don't worry - what you want to state is: It is from overseas, BUT due to lack of our border control, it's already spreading in local community transmission. C'mon folks, does anyone watches those daily briefings? almost all that able to be traced, have some sort of connection to the overseas travel.

by Rosenstein | 15th Apr 20, 7:07pm 1586934478

Are you figuring out who to throw your pitchfork at?

by Plutocracy | 15th Apr 20, 8:47pm 1586940456

No, I'm interested in if these cases arose from foreign sources of if it's due to significant community spread happening in NZ behind the scenes.

by sit23 | 15th Apr 20, 10:17pm 1586945852

My mother-in-law's resthome has about 99.5% foreign born staff. So the source of any infection which goes through the residents has a high statistical probability of being introduced by someone with foreign connections. Just a statistical probability, not an implied racial slur.

by Keen Observer | 15th Apr 20, 11:43pm 1586951000

That is correct, from Kerala/India, Philippines, then Fiji or other pacific nations (non-NZ born staff that is), so even when not traveling recently often have visitors from overseas. It's not a probability, it's a factual - we just have in-law visits late last year, before this saga started.. cough..

by Rob | 16th Apr 20, 1:42am 1586958178

In this case it was from a carer who had recently returned from overseas https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120475675/coronavir…

by The Lark | 15th Apr 20, 9:07pm 1586941662

People too happy to have numbers served up to them. I like your thinking. The numbers are a sham, targeted testing, largely due to lack of tests, allows the govt to quite literally paint by numbers. The rest homes are a gime, because we get "only old people". It helps keep public calm. Too calm, I would've thought, looking at police arrests, etc. The numbers can almost be guaranteed to say the correct thing, depending on plan for LD to continue, or not. The numbers were a fudge all along, and your astute observation shows definite signs of skewed testing, and outcome.

by Hardly | 15th Apr 20, 9:39pm 1586943575

There are a lot of people in rest homes now days, therefore lots of staff and visitors. And they can’t be shut down (except visitors). It means say 50-100 older people are connected to say 40 different staff who have 200 immediate family members. So you have a bubble with say 400 people across 40-50 sites and some of those people have family who work in another essential service which connects more people.

by CJ099 | 15th Apr 20, 5:14pm 1586927663

Boatman it looks like the only ones who can realistically lift lock down is China. But even they mentioned that they had a resurgence of cases due to overseas exposure. World meter link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
BBC Coronavirus: Wuhan emerges from 76-day lockdown https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-52215631

by Yvil | 15th Apr 20, 5:29pm 1586928582

by Boatman | 15th Apr 20, 4:25pm
The lockdown will not be lifted on 22 April .

How do you know that with such certainty?

by Pragmatist | 15th Apr 20, 8:44pm 1586940274

He doesn't , he just has a pathological hate of this govt, so any excuse to throw mud at them (see the rest of his post) is just fine by him.

by Lapun | 15th Apr 20, 6:04pm 1586930675

My 3 year old granddaughter is growing out of all her shoes. Shoe shops is a sector to reopen.

by Rob | 15th Apr 20, 7:05pm 1586934339

But why would we want it to be lifted, if it hasn't done what it is required to do? We were mid way through the 4 week lockdown, before they decided to make all incoming potential virus carriers go into quarantine. They made it very clear that 4 weeks was the minimum period from the start. Also in the UK their lockdown was just 3 weeks, but they are now looking at extending it for another 3 weeks. That is 6 weeks min, and they have had a lot of death. That could have been NZ if we had waited for more weeks before going into lockdown.

Can NZ afford to go into lockdown for a second or third time +, or do we want to eliminate it from NZ? Other countries don't get this chance

by Alittlebit | 15th Apr 20, 4:09pm 1586923763

"The economic modelling released by the Treasury yesterday will help inform this decision, but I would caution that the path the economy takes from here remains extremely uncertain."
"Extremely bad ", maybe?
[GR in NZ Herald today]

by pin3cone | 15th Apr 20, 4:12pm 1586923935

Trump stopping funding to the WHO... I think he's using it as a scapegoat, something to blame for America's situation, but I do agree that the WHO was way too slow on this. For weeks, despite the virus showing clear signs it was spreading rapidly and there were huge doubts about the validity of Chinese data, they refused to call it a pandemic. That'd be one hell of a post-incident meeting.

by Boatman | 15th Apr 20, 4:23pm 1586924596

The WHO is a highly politicized organisation , that should stick to its mandate instead of the things they do .

-- Kicking Taiwan of the WHO out is just not on .
-- Appointing Robert Mugabe as goodwill ambassador to WHO ( whatever the #( )(& a Goodwill Ambassaor is ) was sheer madness
-- handling of Ebola was chaotic and politically charged
-- The Head of WHO Blowing smoke up Chi Jing Ping's backside was just embarrassing

by RollingOn | 15th Apr 20, 4:39pm 1586925594

They didn't just refuse to call it a pandemic. They admonished countries closing their borders and praised China's response repeatedly when the evidence is petty clear that China covered it up for as long as possible before responding, allowing the disease to get out of control. Then there are the revelations that Taiwan asked for information about the virus in December, and was ignored.

If the WHO is simultaneously acting like the WTO and China's stooge, I don't see why they should get funding.

by gingerninja | 15th Apr 20, 5:32pm 1586928738

The WHO's treatment of Taiwan is appalling and clearly proves that they are not a neutral organisation. And if they are not neutral then they are worthless to us in this pandemic.

by Keen Observer | 15th Apr 20, 11:50pm 1586951423

They all soon being paid in Renminbi, USD? - go away...World likes to find scape goat: Spanish flu, German, Hitler, Japanese, Osama bin Laden,.. who will it be? for this Covids - dung dung .. dung..

by Mr T | 15th Apr 20, 5:52pm 1586929973

"With separate studies finding that the world’s death toll would have shrunk by 95 per cent if China and the World Health Organisation acted just three weeks earlier, Chinese censorship likely killed most of the 125,000 people confirmed dead today" https://www.skynews.com.au/details/5e9669f623eec6001b5d4479

by sit23 | 15th Apr 20, 10:32pm 1586946755

Read about the WHO boss's previous government job in Ethiopia when he oversaw the butchering of one of their tribes. Which of course explains the Mugabe and China empathy.

by Rob | 15th Apr 20, 11:00pm 1586948402

Although I am not a Trump supporter by any means, I think he made some valid points. eg Them not recommending shutting down the borders, and also the big delay before they officially called it a pandemic. It wasn't until it was officially a 'pandemic' could things start to happen. But I don't think funding should be stopped, as they have a lot of informtion, and this is the time we need them. The time to do anything like this is after the pandemic is over.

by Boatman | 15th Apr 20, 4:13pm 1586924015

I am starting to read all sorts of looney ideas in the media suggesting the End is Nigh for Capitalism and the Free Market .

Its just wishful thinking ............unless something really workable and better comes along , then its pretty much here to stay .

We have tried all manner of ideas in history , and humans left to their own endeavours in the competitive pursuit of betterment , is the only thing that has ever worked .

Get used to it

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 4:24pm 1586924655

Hoover Institute & WSJ columnist.

https://youtu.be/JZzjKLuAU6w

https://www.amazon.com/Resistance-At-All-Costs-Breaking/dp/1538701774

"Fifty years from now, when historians try to understand how America devolved into lunacy, they'll read this book. Nobody's sharper, wiser or more precise than Kim Strassel."― Tucker Carlson, Fox News host

by waymad | 15th Apr 20, 4:41pm 1586925712

Heh. Have it on the bookshelf (library books are Quarantined atm, too). Good read.

by childofthesun | 15th Apr 20, 4:39pm 1586925550

I'll get used to it when your definition of the 'free market' is classified along with the fairies at the bottom of the garden. That whirring noise is Adam Smith spinning in his grave at the inaccurate use of the term 'free market' to try and justify an exalted position in society (and insecurities) usually followed by words such as 'hard work', 'effort', 'blood, sweat and tears'.....blah, blah, blah...

by RollingOn | 15th Apr 20, 4:41pm 1586925670

Blah blah blah, much like this comment.

by powerdownkiwi | 15th Apr 20, 5:33pm 1586928786

Says the ideal log :)

by gingerninja | 15th Apr 20, 5:34pm 1586928898

Adam Smith believed in "invisible hands" and that markets were rational. So clearly, in some respects he was wrong.

by Boatman | 15th Apr 20, 8:39pm 1586939983

But the markets are always right

by Pragmatist | 15th Apr 20, 8:52pm 1586940723

Were they right in December when the Dow was at 29.5K, or were they right in MArch when the Dow was 18.5k? Or are they right now at 24k?

Seems something isn't "right" at all....

by Independent_Observer | 15th Apr 20, 4:55pm 1586926538

Yes my lord, said the serfs...

https://i.redd.it/khl9eb69yaw01.png

Perhaps feudalism was a better form of slavery?

by dollar_bill | 15th Apr 20, 6:00pm 1586930435

Capitalism and the Free Market .... had to chuckle at this one

by Noncents | 15th Apr 20, 7:08pm 1586934507

The "Free" market, lol good one. Their bar tab is $25 billion and climbing.

by Keen Observer | 15th Apr 20, 11:58pm 1586951892

'Free' ha ha: I liked the random world to exist without the rule & regulation, .. fact is rule exist ideally to protect all - have a look at the traffic lights, yet? for share market.. there's a new 'automatic' suspension of trading to 'protect the market' really? - Capitalism is here on the free market, but they're running in tight rope, so have to be presented as neoliberal for NZ/OZ, US, UK, Canada - their modus operandii are all the same; individualistic capitalist BUT when facing loss? - become socialist, the loss burder to be carry by the en masse - bail out, QEs etc.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1507/S00101/the-fire-economy-new-zeal…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGrBCtOt4Qs

by printer8 | 15th Apr 20, 4:25pm 1586924745

Trump cuts US funding to WHO.
It is widely acknowledged in all mainstream media (apart from Fox News) that Trump has handled a response to the virus poorly.
After initially claiming “We have it totally under control’, and blaming it as a Democratic hoax,” he now has the Chinese and WHO as the culprits for high US deaths as he moves into election mode.

by Fritz | 15th Apr 20, 5:16pm 1586927786

I am no Trump fanboy.
But on the joke that calls itself WHO, he is right.

by frazz | 15th Apr 20, 9:37pm 1586943462

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-name-on-stimulus-check-irs…

by printer8 | 15th Apr 20, 11:10pm 1586949048

frazz
Good link.
It clearly shows the lengths that Trump will go to. In this instance his name as being a signatory on all stimulus (unemployment) cheques as though it is money personally from him - rather than the tax payers - and that recipients should be appreciative of (i.e. vote for) him. Trump has clearly stated on a number of times in recent weeks that in aid to states governors need to display being appreciative of him or otherwise he will withhold funding to that state. Imagine if all WINZ cheques carried Jacinda's signature as part of electioneering.

by NevilleC | 15th Apr 20, 11:40pm 1586950839

Cheques? I dont think WINZ uses cheques. Says something about the USA that they still use checks with all their costs, security problems and delays in getting the funds to the recipients. .

by ShoreThing | 15th Apr 20, 5:18pm 1586927889

The WHO that repeatedly admonished nations for their travel bans to China, and refused to call it a pandemic? They continually downplayed the seriousness of this disaster, and gave out advice that was directly responsible for the deaths of thousands. The refusal to acknowledge Taiwan is just the cherry on top - the WHO is firmly in the pocket of China. They have politicised a worldwide health issue and should rightly be defunded immediately.

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 5:22pm 1586928141

$ funds keep moving.

USA will provide it's current WHO funding, directly to the countries the WHO was otherwise meant to support.

This will allow USA folk to be in on the ground and find the index patients, investigate & analyze virus hot spots, get data.

https://youtu.be/WkQI9vhpeZc

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 9:39pm 1586943575

What's the change in behaviour we should expect to see, that would provide reasons to continue funding?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121039034/jacinda-ard…

by gingerninja | 15th Apr 20, 5:44pm 1586929497

Why do people have a problem conceiving of the possibility that Trump *and* the WHO were wrong and that both have contributed to deaths and economic carnage that could have been mitigated? At the very least, the WHO monumentally failed at their primary job in calling the first alarm? I don't expect the POTUS to understand a viral pandemic, but I do expect the WHO to. I no longer have expectations of POTUS, Trump has overturned whatever history had taught me to expect from that role. However, he was democratically elected, the American people chose him, so that is who we have and we can't do anything about that. His mistakes are also their mistakes, they chose him. The WHO? They are supposed to be neutral and health focused. Instead they are undemocratic, political and partisan. And we can do something about that.

by youngdumbandbroke | 15th Apr 20, 11:13pm 1586949220

I think the devil is in the name "world health organisation". A lot like the UN. The very name of the entity is deceptive and the Who has proved to be nothing more than a gun for hire style mouthpiece for whoever forks out the cash.

by Officebound | 15th Apr 20, 4:23pm 1586924639

Great report as always thanks.

Can anyone explain why being at 50% capacity for water storage, as we come into winter, after a record drought is a concern?

I have no knowledge of these things but that seems like a pass mark to me?

by youngdumbandbroke | 15th Apr 20, 11:17pm 1586949460

It's a concern as now it's too late for drought stricken regions to grow enough food for wintering livestock. This means they either have to buy in feed (expensive) or kill more stock with processors struggling to find space for everyone. The drought has been so bad in areas that many farmers will be doing both

by Officebound | 16th Apr 20, 4:34pm 1587011673

Cheers, but this was related to City storage, rather than land moisture in the regions.

by Pat.T | 15th Apr 20, 4:33pm 1586925186

I'm inclined to think that we should go to level 3 next week, take extra care of our elderly and take as many precautions as we can but we need to restart industry and get the country moving forward.
Two more weeks in lockdown won't eliminate the virus but will make it that much harder for businesses to survive.

Great result from processor Silver Fern Farms

by printer8 | 15th Apr 20, 4:35pm 1586925352

Pat.T
As explained strongly by Bloomfield today - and also by the WHO - this is not solely a killer of the old. Please note the 20-29 age cohort by far still have the highest incidence and therefore spreaders of the virus.
Go too early we risk wasting the past two and a half weeks, end up in the same situation as Italy, Spain and France, and back into lock down.

by Kezza R | 15th Apr 20, 9:12pm 1586941974

Why do we have to go arround and arround explaining thos over and over again????
Logic says we stay locked up and nail this completely.

by frazz | 15th Apr 20, 4:28pm 1586924907

Pity they did not back themselves and not sell 50% to China?

by bw | 15th Apr 20, 4:35pm 1586925300

Ah! So, you want New Zealand to 'live with it' as well? ( see mine above)

by Pat.T | 15th Apr 20, 4:39pm 1586925594

bw
So how long would you keep the country at level 4 in the hope that we would eliminate the virus completley?

by bw | 15th Apr 20, 4:48pm 1586926088

Level 4 until 14 days after the last case of infection.
Longer than the next week, but hopefully by the week after that.
Once we have 14 clears days, then back down a Level or even 2.
The Wage Subsidy payment to employers was a bullet payment of 12 weeks. So I'd guess that their thinking accommodates that.

by printer8 | 15th Apr 20, 5:26pm 1586928384

Pat.T
In answer to your query as to how long at Level 4.
As long as it takes for Bloomfield et al. to determine that they are confident that they are capable of containing the situation so that there is minimal risk of us not having wasted the current L4 lock down period and having to return to a similar situation.
This has been clearly articulated by the PM and Bloomfield and they are relying on testing data to determine when this may be.
For anyone to simply propose anything different such as next week is baseless, wild and risky.

by Pat.T | 15th Apr 20, 5:35pm 1586928945

Pleased to see the goverment are keeping their options open.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has told business leaders that a lowering of Covid-19 restrictions will be about eliminating the virus but will consider how it is impacting the economy.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

If we don't come out of level 4 until 14 days after the last infection the country will be KO'd

by Lapun | 15th Apr 20, 6:49pm 1586933383

What if all infections stop except for a known cluster in a retirement village? Surely if it is down to a single physically restricted well identified cluster then it is over. Alternatively what happens if we are out of lockdown wit no cases for a fortnight and suddenly someone in the Chathams says he isn't feeling well?

by BadRobot | 15th Apr 20, 6:39pm 1586932787

Only problem is they can never know or be certain. There have been reported instances of domesticated animals getting COVID-19

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/04/coronavirus-cats-can-catch…

Are we going to kill every cat in the country ? If not, it could be possible to survive in the cat population of NZ and then jump back into the human population. We can't cover all our bases simply because we don't have enough information about the virus and if it can infect other animals and a host of other data about the virus. I do not believe it is possible to eradicate COVID-19 - we can only manage it. At some point the government is going to have to make a decision - what concerns me is do they have the spine to make that decision. The unfortunate truth is we share the earth with some really nasty bugs and sometimes mother nature bites back.

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 7:21pm 1586935291

Rubber meet Road.

Part of that thinking is probably a review of the process and systems in testing & contact tracing and supply of PPE.
And, how the DHBs operate, how the aged & care providers operate.

Dr B needs to speak in the here and now, not the we should, we would like, we aim for.

For example, ppe.
Let's see a table.
BHD down with 3 column headings. hospitals, GPs and aged/care.
Per DHB how much ppe they need by week by mask, suit/shoe, eye wear
How much PPE they by week got by mask, suit/shoe, eye wear

What's the balance, what's the deficit.
What's in reserve, what's booked and coming.

Similar for testing
Similar for contact tracing.

We are way past "look me in the eye"

by Rob | 15th Apr 20, 11:03pm 1586948625

Anyone 70 or older, (or even 60), may have to remain in isolation until a vaccine is released, which could be 18 months + away.
However if we eliminate it,ALL NZers could return to a normal life in NZ. All it needs is for everyone to follow the script, and us to have a bit of patience. Some companies that have failed were ones that were marginal anyway even in good times, and that doesn't mean that they won't restart up in the future, possibly under new management and ownership.

by custard | 15th Apr 20, 4:28pm 1586924933

Food and rent up over 3% for the year.

These are everyday expenditures for many – non-tradeables - making up a large percentage of weekly spend.

However – the RBNZ put on their magic “invisible” glasses and there is apparently no inflation to be seen – and a justifiable (pre virus) OCR in their minds of 1%.

So, many struggle with the basic necessities of life, savers get crushed and asset prices balloon – banks make record profits and “savvy investors” crow loudly of their success.

RBNZ - guardians of financial stability apparently.

One way or another – it was going to come tumbling down.

by Camel's back | 15th Apr 20, 6:14pm 1586931295

There is no inflation in New Zealand
There are no sheep on our farms
There is no inflation in New Zealand
We can all keep perfectly calm.

by Uninterested | 15th Apr 20, 7:41pm 1586936471

Did the price of custard go up or down?

by custard | 15th Apr 20, 8:10pm 1586938247

Interestingly enough, it’s neither – despite buffeting by all manner of external forces – custard remains remarkably stable.

by Pragmatist | 15th Apr 20, 8:59pm 1586941195

SO you do have a price? hmm.

by Hummy | 15th Apr 20, 4:38pm 1586925494

Inflation is going to hurt really bad I guess. Orr are numbers fiddled around. Orr can always print more money. And is there still a point of paying taxes?

by ShoreThing | 15th Apr 20, 5:22pm 1586928132

Of course the numbers are fiddled. If something in the CPI basket of goods goes up in price, they substitute it for something cheaper and tell you there is no inflation. Every year you get a letter from your insurance company telling you that some obscure part of your policy is no longer covered or is now co-pay, yet they don't measure a lesser service at the same price as inflation. The whole thing is rigged from top to bottom.

by The Lark | 15th Apr 20, 9:23pm 1586942620

Do people really believe that inflation has been around 2% for the last 10 years? The numbers have been fiddled for a long time now, why would a virus, or an economic crises cause it to be any different?

by waymad | 15th Apr 20, 4:44pm 1586925884

Michael Reddell has some Questions for the RBNZ Guv'nor.....a sample

In your speech on 10 March and in interviews immediately after that, the Bank was still coming across as extraordinarily complacent and reluctant to do anything with monetary policy. Given the way the Bank had responded to past exogenous shocks threats, how do you justify the refusal to act for so long, perhaps the more so when you knew the limits of conventional monetary policy were approaching and (in various statements/interviews last year you were alert to the threat of inflation expectations falling away in any renewed downturn). The Governor might also be asked if the technical working papers promised in his speech are now ever going to be released.

by Audaxes | 15th Apr 20, 5:55pm 1586930119

Only rarely is there occasion for useful information.

One of those was August 2014. Stanley Fischer who was then Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve found himself in Sweden. Because his audience was Swedish and not American or even English-speaking perhaps he felt a freer hand at being honest. Whatever the reason he told them what he would never say here.

"Year after year we have had to explain from mid-year on why the global growth rate has been lower than predicted as little as two quarters back. Indeed, research done by my colleagues at the Federal Reserve comparing previous cases of severe recessions suggests that, even conditional on the depth and duration of the Great Recession and its association with a banking and financial crisis, the recoveries in the advanced economies have been well below average."

In the aftermath of the Great “Recession” they never saw coming, the same worthless policymakers kept promising the world they’d make up for it by ensuring recovery. QE’s and whatnot, by and large populations around the globe were willing to lend officials that chance, extending a huge benefit of the doubt (given the severity of what had just happened) unearned by the crisis performance.

More than that, people stayed patient for years and that patience was repaid with overpromises and lack of transparency, indeed a controversial and thoroughly corrupt enterprise intended to hide the truth. There was no recovery; Economists had been wildly over-optimistic about the ability of “stimulus” to, well, stimulate. Link

by Glitzy | 15th Apr 20, 4:45pm 1586925916

"Food prices increased +3.3% in the year to March, mainly influenced by higher prices for meat, poultry, and fish (up +7.5%), and grocery food (up +3.2%)."

Nice to see the food cartel is still f~g every man woman and child in NZ.

by Tradersam | 15th Apr 20, 7:47pm 1586936869

. Yep. Noticed how the supermarkets have stopped advertising their specials - cause there aren’t any. Can’t let a good crisis go to waste huh!

by Fritz | 15th Apr 20, 9:53pm 1586944404

Horrid entities. Seriously.

by wirehunt | 15th Apr 20, 4:49pm 1586926142

Looks to me like they are buying time with the virus. Way under prepared and short on PPE and idea's, so keep us in lockdown to try and sort the mess out because they don't know what to do.
Not one particular government's fault, but some group is at the backend of this.

Some honesty would go a very long way. What are their targets, what do they want to see etc, instead we get crickets. Then they wonder why Joe Blow public are getting testy.

by Pacman_46 | 15th Apr 20, 5:36pm 1586928965

Worthy of consideration is how much harder It would be for NZers and how much worse would compliance be if we have to move back up to level 4 after coming down too early. I for one would rather another week or two at L4 to be sure, than having to go back into full lockdown In the next few weeks/months again if we get it wrong.

by Carlos67 | 15th Apr 20, 5:55pm 1586930127

I think we need to consider the high probability that this virus cannot be totally eliminated in New Zealand. The level of lockdown required is simply not happening. Its simply to contagious and the time it takes to present symptoms coupled with those that are Asymptomatic make it impossible to eradicate. Reality will be a juggling act between what hospitals can handle and the number of people back at work.

by Rob | 15th Apr 20, 11:45pm 1586951112

I think the WHO would disagree with you as they said it could be eliminated if countries do everything they can, including extensive testing and contact tracing. This is where NZ has fallen behind, as we have been using a manual contract tracing system . Likewise Dr Skegg, one of NZs top experts in this area said it can be eliminated. We were always told early on by the MOH that people that were symptomatic has a low chance of infecting others. I am not sure if they have changed this opinion. But if 30% of people are asymptomatic, then I would have expected to see more cases, outside clusters, eg people getting it from going to the super market etc. But that doesn't seem to be occurring

by printer8 | 15th Apr 20, 5:48pm 1586929728

20% pay cut by PM, cabinet and ministry heads symbolic sign of solidarity with workers.
Photo of Winston fishing from lawn of his water front property a sick finger-up to the rest of us as we all endure lock down in less salubrious conditions.

by Andrewj | 15th Apr 20, 5:55pm 1586930102

China part ll
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-will-be-hit-second-coronavirus-…

by Foreign buyer | 15th Apr 20, 5:56pm 1586930213

The higher the inflation rate, the more interest rates are likely to rise. This will be a double whammy to the property market. If you didn't get out before LD then good luck to you.

by printer8 | 15th Apr 20, 6:06pm 1586930772

FB
Keep wishing worst for home owners.
Global QE and a world awash with money look to very low interest rates continuing.
Look to both GFC experience and what is currently happening on stock markets - especially the Dow - despite economic outlook is abysmal.

by Foreign buyer | 15th Apr 20, 6:34pm 1586932480

Genuine home owners don't really care if the home they live in goes down in price. Specuvestors on the other hand do and I will be happy if they get a very large haircut because I believe that they have destroyed the fabric of NZ.

by CN | 16th Apr 20, 12:36am 1586954203

"Genuine home owners don't really care if the home they live in goes down in price. "

Recent owner occupier buyers might. Recall GV27's concerns about the possibility of a large unrealized loss on the equity value of their recently purchased house or the prospect of going into negative equity.

by ShoreThing | 15th Apr 20, 6:15pm 1586931324

Look in to how inflation is actually measured, then you will realise how the entire system is designed to keep interest rates low and asset bubbles inflating.

by bw | 15th Apr 20, 7:10pm 1586934656

Quite right. But....
The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men, Gang aft agley.

by Uninterested | 15th Apr 20, 7:48pm 1586936915

It now has an employment target in there as well as inflation so whatever inflation does, unemployment will skyrocket.
OCR stays low. If the govt allows the OCR to tick up, there will be even more mortgagee sales than otherwise. Hence the reluctance to increase it.

by Wrong John | 15th Apr 20, 6:07pm 1586930830

The view from parliament is probably similar to the view from the bridge of the Titanic. They too didn't have enough life boats.

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 10:54pm 1586948070

Contact tracing.

Here is a detail look at what it is and how it works in Singapore.
https://youtu.be/LLmfqFhVeTA
And
https://youtu.be/KPJRnkV3xvo

Singapore aim for 24 hrs from new case to traced.

Australia aims for 3 days.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/contact-tracing-how-disease-detectives-…

NZ moh cannot say how many days it takes here in NZ.

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 8:49pm 1586940577

Australian number crunching

https://www.smh.com.au/national/new-database-to-predict-which-sydney-su…

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 11:20pm 1586949652

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/director-behi…

In the weeks since Singapore released its contact tracing app, the government has seen technology's shortcomings for tracking COVID-19. Despite the government's public campaign to the country to download the app, only about one in six people in Singapore have actually done it, Singapore's national development minister Lawrence Wong said on April 1.

by Rob | 16th Apr 20, 1:48am 1586958494

The number of people who download these types of apps and use them will be tiny IMO. Not unless they end up paying people to do it, I can't see people doing it. Many people won't have a device suitable either, especially many the older higher risk ones, some who don;t use smart phones. Many people have devices using old OS's, and this software will likely require a relatively new device with a newer OS version. Then people may l need mobile data for realtime data collection and tracking. One way around this could be only allowing people who have the app and and mobile device, to be able to exit level 4, with spot checking by the police. But I don't think that is going to work.

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 8:21pm 1586938881

More from the Daily Telegraph, or as locals say
The Daily Terror.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/sydney-chinese-consulate…

It's a Goose Gander situation.
V good!

by Fritz | 15th Apr 20, 8:55pm 1586940946

I see Jacinda and Helen Clark are criticizing Trump's call on WHO.
So it's now official. I won't be voting Labour this coming election.
Debacle.

by Houseworks | 15th Apr 20, 9:34pm 1586943297

Jacinda has such a big mouth ... needs it to hold her big teeth lol

by Beanie | 15th Apr 20, 10:36pm 1586947011

Settle down

by Henry_Tull | 15th Apr 20, 10:12pm 1586945541

WHO are the FIFA of the medical world...
Their bads bits outweigh their good bits.
- IROMG.

https://youtu.be/09m2cw2yuek

Do folk realise the USA $ funding continues?

Trump, complaining that the agency is too “China-centric,” said the U.S. would work with the WHO to reform its failings but would direct its funding elsewhere in the meantime, saying, “for the time being, we will redirect global health and directly work with others.” “All of the aid we send will be discussed at very, very powerful letters and with very powerful and influential groups, and smart groups, medically, politically, and every other way” the president said. “We will be discussing with other countries and global health partners what we do with all of that money that goes to WHO.”

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/trump-defunds-world-health-orga…

by Houseworks | 15th Apr 20, 9:41pm 1586943661

I dont see any comments about the possible closure of oil refinery... reason given is the low prices... ironical that flies in the face of the COL claiming the oil companies were ripping off the consumer (while the govt rips off the consumer). That's big news if it affects whangarei and northland to the extent stated. Govt may be called on for a 30m donation.

by pdemp | 15th Apr 20, 10:13pm 1586945623

I’d be interested to know the reasons behind their thinking, specifically is it related to the strenuous requirements of new Major Hazardous Facilities regulations under the H&S Act? I’ve heard similar regulations in Australia are forcing their oil and gas plants to close. My experience with the regs is they are very difficult to apply and it’s forcing business to over spend. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see many large hazardous industries closing, especially with the economic hit we’re getting from Covid 19. Watch this space.

by The Lark | 15th Apr 20, 9:46pm 1586943981

Nearly all the global organisations have been politicised. The UN was political from the start. The UN human rights commission was something USA left some years ago.look at the Iraqi war, it was illegal. The WTO was fine, until it stopped being so easily controlled by the usa. Now they don't want anything to do with it. The IBS, that epicenter of the global finance system, now also seems to have been ripped from the control of uncle sam. The entire global system is being rewired, and the evidence is there for all to see. Look at the actions of the international court for criminal justice, bringing usa to trial on war crimes. It may not stick, but it's a first. What was usa response? "We no longer need to be a part of that."
As for economic numbers, these have been fiddled with so much, nobody recognises it. Unemployment, correction, we dont use that word now, for sometime we have been fed "employment" numbers. In the UK, to be "employed", it takes just 1 hr of work, in a 2 week period. In the usa, any form of work, regardless of hours, or even if it's voluntary, counts as "employment". The usa dept of stats actually do a ph survey, asking a group of 4000 business for numbers on prospective jobs. It is not based on payroll! Add to this they rarely manage to call all 4000, and often publish figures based on 1000+ businesses, that often ph the figures in themselves. When it became about numbers, the powers that be, simply took control of the numbers, it was far easier that way.