Breakfast briefing: Investors hit markets in upbeat mood

Risk sentiment jumps in all markets; most data doesn't support the mood swing; US pharmacies prepare for second virus wave; UST 10yr yield at 0.69%; oil firm and gold soft; NZ$1 = 62 USc; TWI-5 = 67.7

27th May 20, 7:21am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of an upbeat mood on markets today.

International moves to reopen economies - in the US, Europe and Japan, after China's apparently successful effort - has buoyed Wall Street investors fresh back from their Memorial Day long weekend. The S&P500 is up +1.9% so far in a rising trend. Overnight, European markets rose a bit more than +1%. And yesterday, there were healthy rises in Shanghai (+1.0%, Hong Kong (+1.9%) and Tokyo (+2.6%). But in all cases, it is short-term emotion - or animal spirits as economists like to say - that is driving the trading herd.

The data isn't so supportive of such gains.

The latest survey of consumer sentiment in the US in May has it about equally depressed as the prior survey. Maybe investors are pleased it didn't get worse.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index confirmed a huge and unprecedented fall, but that was recording April data. Maybe investors think that was the bottom.

The Dallas Fed's regional survey for May was awful too. Maybe investors are heartened it wasn't as bad as April. But it was still very negative indeed.

Overnight Mexico reported a sharp contraction in their GDP for Q1 2020 (-1.3% pa).

Singapore did too (-4.7%), but not by as much in Q1-2020 as originally estimated. Actually, Singapore's industrial production actually rose impressively in April on a year-on-year basis.

Hopes for an effective vaccine are probably behind the upbeat investor mood. But that is a major uncertainty all the same. And American pharmacy chains are preparing a big push for flu vaccinations when the season kicks off in just four months, when it could coincide with a second wave of coronavirus infections.

In Hong Kong, and with echos of Trump, China is making employees of major firms there sign petitions backing their new security laws in the Territory and reinforcing fealty to Beijing.

In Japan, the big stimulus plan announced late last week is underway with a first NZ$25 bln tranche, double the previous action.

In China, mass testing of 11 million people in Wuhan has uncovered another 200 asymptomatic cases in the city.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 5,549,000 and up +90,000 from this time yesterday, which is rising at a faster pace than recently.

Now, just over 30% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +39,000 since this time yesterday to 1,672,000. This is a rising rate of increase and the highest daily increase of any country worldwide. US deaths are now exceed 99,000. Global deaths now exceed 348,000. Five US states have more cases than in all of China - MA, CA, IL, NJ and NY. In fact New York alone has more cases than any other country than the US or Brazil. Fortunately for New York and New Jersey, their curves are declining fast. But the same can't be said for most other US states.

In Australia, there are now 7133 cases (+19), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just under 92%. 30 people are in hospital there (-6) with 5 in ICU (unchanged). There are now 478 active cases in Australia (-23).

There were zero cases again yesterday in New Zealand, leaving the total at 1504 cases identified as either confirmed (1154) or probable (350). There is still only one person left in hospital with the disease, and they are not in ICU. Our recovery rate is now just over 97%, with only 22 people known to be still fighting the infection (-5).

The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps today at 0.69%. Their 2-10 curve is steeper at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is at +18 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also steeper +60 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is also up +4 bps at 0.90%. The China Govt 10yr is up +5 bps at 2.70%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also firmer, up +4 bps at 0.68%.

The gold price is down again today, this time by another -US$16 to US$1,712/oz.

Oil prices are firmer today, but only marginally. The US crude price is now just under US$34/bbl. The international oil price is just over US$35.50/bbl. Slowly but relentlessly the US domestic price is closing in on the Brent price.

The Kiwi dollar has moved higher overnight and it has been a solid move at that. We are up a full +1c against the greenback to just over 62 USc. That is our highest since the pandemic emergency started. On the cross rates we are marginally higher at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 56.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has risen to 67.7 and an eleven week high

Bitcoin is marginally softer again, down to US$8,804. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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119 Comments

by Zachary Smith | 27th May 20, 7:33am 1590521635

The virus has been a bit of a disaster for the world but what usually happens after a disaster? A boom that's what.

by bw | 27th May 20, 8:00am 1590523246

There's just as much history that tells us that when things can't get any worse, they do.
(Watching Todd Muller on tv this morning comes to mind)

by nymad | 27th May 20, 8:03am 1590523435

After his first press conference, I was somewhat impressed.
But that interview just highlighted how out of his depth he is. Absolutely roasted.

by Fritz | 27th May 20, 9:19am 1590527976

Agree. I thought he was 'quite' good in the first press conference.
But yep looked out of his depth this morning.

by Albert2020 | 27th May 20, 9:25am 1590528305

He would have been far better to come out honestly and say we (Amy, I and a few others) have been wanting to change the direction Simon was taking us for several months (to say it has only been the past week is bollocks and just shows he's dishonest). Amy got caught out telling porkies on RNZ a couple of nights ago when also asked the same question. People can smell bullsh%t.

by Ngrrk | 27th May 20, 9:40am 1590529224

"People can smell bullsh%t". Can they? John Key seemed to do ok.

by Albert2020 | 27th May 20, 9:44am 1590529477

I'm not surprised, Hosking was so far up his derriere that Key didn't take a dump for 9 years.

by avatar99 | 27th May 20, 12:20pm 1590538814

I am not a Key fan, but it is hard to deny the sharpness of his mind. Always kept his stories consistent and always thinking ahead to the longer game.

by Plutocracy | 27th May 20, 12:57pm 1590541079

"I don't recall"

by lastredact | 27th May 20, 11:09am 1590534576

Todd Muller is to National as David Shearer was to Labour.

by lastredact | 27th May 20, 11:10am 1590534626

I suppose it will be Judith as National leader in 2021

by Caleb | 27th May 20, 8:05am 1590523552

Is that a cheap shot or do you have something to say?

by Pragmatist | 27th May 20, 8:16am 1590524195

Is that blind partisan defence of team blue, or did you think he did well this morning? What did he do well?

(I haven't seen it yet to form an opinion )

by pin3cone | 27th May 20, 8:38am 1590525484

I wouldn't have even known he was on. Didn't think anyone watches TV anymore, hence mediaworks going down the drain... Managed to find a clip of old Mark Richardson having a go at him though, more of a rant about how he's not happy with the way National are conducting themselves.

I'd actually give him credit - in the role of the 4th estate he's actually throwing shade on his preferred political party. Surely there must be an ulterior motive... like building his own fan base or something...

Edit: found the interview/debate: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/todd-muller-rejects-great-c…

by sharetrader | 27th May 20, 9:34am 1590528885

even mike h gave it to him this morning, he is not impressed

by bw | 27th May 20, 8:29am 1590524958

Did you watch it? Campbell vs Muller. Sure, Campbell is combative ( and probably why he ended up in the unemployment line after ruffling a few political feathers a few years back) but Muller was abysmal.
He's the new Leader, for Heaven's Sake, and supposed to have more, newer, better ideas to put before the New Zealand public; more than just "Look. With respect, we are working on that". He has just weeks to sort his agenda and character out before the polls.
It doesn't look like we are going to be given much choice from what I see so far.
And, choice, is what makes our System worthwhile.

by Boatman | 27th May 20, 8:48am 1590526101

John Campbell is so left in his mindset , he cant bring himself to turn right at traffic lights

by bw | 27th May 20, 8:57am 1590526629

The perfect foil for Duncan Garner/ Mark Richardson then?!
A skilled politician thrives on confrontation. It hones their ideas and gives them a chance to say "What I'm proposing is the only answer to a particular problem. Vote for Me!" and Muller just isn't that.
Peters/Key/Clark are/were a good example of confrontational politicians. Love them or hate them they have what it takes. Todd doesn't appear to.

by Foyle | 27th May 20, 9:28am 1590528486

It is notable in recent years that the 'mongrel' nasty backbiting politicians of yesteryear (Winston excepted) seem to have become extinct. Where does one go to get training in being verbally combatively in these days of simpering niceness and circumlocution? There are just no forums where it is considered acceptable to be verbally aggressive outside of political interviews. So rather unsurprising that politicians (particularly newbs) don't handle interviews well these days.

by Albert2020 | 27th May 20, 9:27am 1590528446

Regardless of what you think of JC, you can't deny Todd was found wanting (again).

by RickStrauss | 27th May 20, 11:10am 1590534614

The problem is that in this instance Campbell was just asking about the logical contradiction:

1. Muller rolled Bridges because Muller supposedly had a better economic plan for taking National and NZ forward
2. When asked about the plan, Muller said he'd asked Adams and others to come up with a new economic plan.

Did he have one as suggested, or not? Muller trapped himself in a tricky situation there.

by sharetrader | 27th May 20, 9:36am 1590528963

he reminded me of andrew little, had about the same amount of charisma

by Matt73 | 27th May 20, 11:06am 1590534377

Why couldn't he just come out and say he's been thinking about taking over for a while, then stepped up when he saw the chance? He's gonna make a story out of this now.

by Ben72 | 27th May 20, 8:12am 1590523926

Muller 2.0 of Don Brash :)

by Boatman | 27th May 20, 8:25am 1590524706

We need a tough bastard , even one with a Donald Trump cap , to get the productive sector up and running again.

Right now are heading towards an unsustainable total welfare -handout state with massive dependency on Nanny Cindy , and that;s what the left always wanted

by Ben72 | 27th May 20, 8:31am 1590525116

As you said 2 days ago “Muller make NZ Great again”
How “ Great” is it similar going to be like previous 9 years national government by not helping and favouring FHB ‘s to buy their own house at the right price ha.

by Boatman | 27th May 20, 8:56am 1590526582

Well first up National did nothing to stop FHB's from buying anything.

Interest rates here fell to the lowest levels under Key , the lowest in my lifetime , making mortgages very affordable

The LTVR ratios were introduced by the RBNZ a totally independent body

If anything National did more for FHB's than this hopeless bunch .

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 9:09am 1590527390

FHB's of the past or FHB's of the future?

Falling rates are great if you've purchased, but terrible if you haven't as it causes prices to rise. It also floods the economy with $$ which in turn could turn into inflation which may mean higher rates in the future. As a result the new FHB takes on a lot of debt at a period when interest rates could be higher over the period of their mortgage - which is very bad for them. So probably the opposite of your view.

by muzled | 27th May 20, 9:14am 1590527648

Boatman, if National, and we're talking National under Sir John here, did more for FHB's than this hopeless bunch it would be fair to assume house prices would be similar to where they were when National came into power, agreed or not?

So you're saying if your children were old enough to buy a house in 2009 and you had a magic wand that could turn back time you'd sit them down, look them in they eye, and tell them not to buy in 2009 but wait until May 2020 because they'd be better off?

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 9:46am 1590529573

Boatman.
Is it time to dust off the Crusher and throw her in as leader?
Some big calls need to be made and Muller isn't cutting it.

by iconoclast | 27th May 20, 11:24am 1590535464

Crusher wouldn't even get to the starting line

by GV 27 | 27th May 20, 10:10am 1590531058

They did indeed. I think there were more affordable housing ballots under the old rules still operating in the last few years (think Axis/Hobsonville Pt style) than there were Kiwibuild homes sold for the first few years. I entered more than a few of them and they were hugely oversubscribed.

by RickStrauss | 27th May 20, 11:51am 1590537078

You keep ignoring facts that are provided to you each time you make this claim, Boatman.

National:

1. Refused the RBNZ a DTI measure that would have allowed them to stimulate the economy without inflating the housing bubble to unaffordable prices
2. Dragged their feet on Anti-money-laundering legislation to the extent of provoking international comment
3. Kept "communism by stealth" as Key called them WFF and Accommodation Supplements to subsidise property investment
4. Said a foreign buyer ban was too hard only for it to be proved not too hard
5. Campaigned on addressing the housing crisis only to maintain for 9 years that no such crisis existed and it was all a "good problem to have".

That did not help FHB.

See you next time you post the same thing, I guess.

by T-Bone | 27th May 20, 11:55am 1590537310

Boatman interest rates are lower now so under your logic labour are doing better than National?

by frazz | 27th May 20, 8:32am 1590525132

Kids enjoying the nanny state welfare are they boatman? Can you not call her Jacinda...too much for your stale pale ego?

by profile | 27th May 20, 8:39am 1590525565

I never realised you were stale and male too frazz - I had you for much more diverse, youthful and other trendy PC buzzwords.
" by frazz | 25th Apr 20, 12:20pm Soyman.."
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/104705/nationals-paul-goldsmith-res…

by frazz | 27th May 20, 8:41am 1590525685

Well done profile...but that's how Soyman spoke his name?

by profile | 27th May 20, 8:45am 1590525916

I can't really cast the first stone here. It is in the banter department.

by Ben72 | 27th May 20, 10:17am 1590531470

Boatman U R childish and ignorant comment made me laugh how little u know about politics. All central bankers in the world for name sake they are independent and always they go align with the government policies. Even Grant says he is in touch with Adrian twice or three times during lockdown.

by RickStrauss | 27th May 20, 11:17am 1590535065

handout state with massive dependency on Nanny Cindy , and that;s what the left always wanted

Who feeds you the caricatures of left-leaning policy? Especially given National and Labour are two slightly different flavours of left-leaning policy.

Are there particular newsletters one needs to subscribe to? Do they also offer newsletters that caricature the right as always wanting to put people in ovens?

by TuaWai Smith | 27th May 20, 11:37am 1590536236

no...seriously...keep the cap hidden Todd.

by TuaWai Smith | 27th May 20, 11:41am 1590536507

by guwop | 27th May 20, 9:11am 1590527492

@Zach, crash comes when things look good again.

by Fritz | 27th May 20, 9:18am 1590527901

Hmmmm, not sure about that.
The problem is, far less ammo left in the wake of this disaster.
Remember that before the GFC hit, mortgage rates were, what, 8%?
Also, there wasn't a boom after the 1930s depression. There was a very slow lift out of the mire. The world's economy didn't boom again until after WW2.
I think we've got the same thing coming this time - a very very gradual lift out of the mire.

by CJ099 | 27th May 20, 9:46am 1590529601

Some how I don't think the US economy will be booming for awhile considering they've now smashed through the 100,000 dead from the coronvirus. I suppose that Trump will wear that figure as a "badge of honor" and still claim that they're beating the virus! (－‸ლ)

Come the November election and their Winter flu + coronvirus still in full swing voter are not going to be happy with Trump!

by TuaWai Smith | 27th May 20, 11:05am 1590534303

Let us absolutely hope you are right. However trump supporters are not exactly renown for their intelligence. Hopefully it will move those on the fence. In the meantime the Fed keeps propping up the equity markets with massive injections of taxpayer money. Any guess as to whether this will continue until the election?

by Ezy | 27th May 20, 7:37am 1590521822

This is 3am at the party, everyone is flagging but the host has just poured out another round of tequila shots. He then climbed on the roof, lit himself on fire and dived in the pool. Every one went wild! The party is raucous again. No one realizes the host is lying face down in the pool, completely dead.

by sit23 | 27th May 20, 8:51am 1590526314

Look on the bright side. The undertaker, the pool cleaner, the coroner, the liquor store all get a living out of it. This Covid-19 debacle is packed full of opportunities.

by Pacman_46 | 27th May 20, 11:58am 1590537495

Gold

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 7:50am 1590522640

Seems completely bizarre that companies are going bankrupt, 25% or so of the US labour force are unemployed, then the stock market is rising like everything is fantastic.

Admittedly I was looking at a chart yesterday and the projected earnings of the S&P500 was heading south decoupled from pricing. Will see how long that can last. For our landlord friends that would be like saying rental income is falling but prices are rising - one then has to ask, ‘well who is paying the bank?’

by Boatman | 27th May 20, 8:31am 1590525117

@Indep Ob , you are right to be surprised , and things are certainly not fantastic .

The money racing into the stock market can only be from fund managers chasing ANY yield , staying in cash or cashed up is really not an option , and smaller punters with FOMO.

Its crazy , herd mentality , FOMO , irrational exuberance and stupidity of the first order , all rolled into one

If this carries on , you might as well take your money to the casino , the odds may better than the stock market

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 8:40am 1590525642

By casino, are you referring to our housing market?

i.e. Yvil making $980K in 7 years. (great return for sure...but it is now somebody else's debt who may not have a job in 4 weeks time).

by youngdumbandbroke | 27th May 20, 9:02am 1590526929

Seems a lot of commenters get on Yvil's case regarding housing. Sure, the house prices in NZ are far too high as are DTI ratios but to blame an individual who is making the best of it is naive. The ones accountable are the politicians that are complicit in the creation of our house flipping environment here in NZ. A landlord who has gamed the system is merely the symptom of the problem, not the cause.

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 9:37am 1590529060

What is the cause?

If somebody breaks a speed limit and crashes into a house killing the children - do you blame the speed limit (government/regulators) or the driver (property speculators)? And if you can see risky drivers who like to gloat about how fast they can drive on those roads, do you call them out before they crash and kills the children or wait for it to happen?

by youngdumbandbroke | 27th May 20, 9:36am 1590528961

The cause is low interest rates coupled with tax advantages and no restrictions around leveraging, causing investors seeking the best return on their money, which has been property for the last decade or so.
As for your speed limit analogy, I don't see how it is applicable as the "speculators" aren't breaking the law like the speeding driver, are they?

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 9:41am 1590529319

I agree with you - it is still a choice though. You have the choice to speed and equally you have the choice to buy a second, third, forth investment property while you see the inequality (and more debt for FHB's) and risk of a crash it is causing. To me, it comes down to your view of self interest. If you can see the pain it will cause others while benefiting yourself, then you need to ask yourself whether it is morally or ethically worthwhile doing. Greed.

by youngdumbandbroke | 27th May 20, 9:55am 1590530113

Of course you agree because they're totally different in the respect that one is operating within the laws set and the other isn't.
As for the moral/ethic aspect, I personally have objections to investing in countless properties but at the same time I see plenty of "self interest"involved with those employed by the state to do whats best by us.
If there is one direction the greed finger should be pointed, its at the beehive. They make the rules and we just have to play by them.

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 10:51am 1590533497

Laws change over time though to better reflect the values and principles of society. Just because something isn't law now, doesn't mean it isn't morally or ethically right. There is no law that says I have to shake your hand when I first met you, but I will because its the right thing to do.

Should people who already own a home and want to buy their third rental outbid a young family looking to buy a home? Its not illegal, but there is moral hazard in doing so. In time, those who miss out may want a revolution and the laws we have will change. Following a moral or ethical code (that is non-law binding) would avoid such a violent uprising - see the end of serfdom or French Revolution or American Independence.

Government is just setting policy that is most popular with the most people at the time. And that is continuously changing.

by youngdumbandbroke | 27th May 20, 11:36am 1590536215

I am aware that law is dynamic and must evolve to remain relevant to those who are bound by it.
The problem being is that elected officials make promises and are elected on that premise, whether or not they are willing and/or able to keep them. I feel we may be coming to one of those historic, revolutionary periods soon.
I somehow don't think most people want higher petrol tax or income tax, I think they want everyone contributing fairly and not having one of the 4 basic needs (housing) to be exploited by the haves at the expense of the have nots.

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 11:55am 1590537300

Yes I agree.

by Albert2020 | 27th May 20, 9:31am 1590528665

We aren't blaming the guy for selling his house for massive untaxed capital gains, rather we are roasting him for shamefully gloating about it on a financial website to complete strangers.

by blobbles | 27th May 20, 9:49am 1590529775

And remember Yvil takes every oppourtunity to blast everyone else for not supporting Interest by giving them money. Guess what Yvil? Some of us don't have untaxed capital gains to help companies out!

Actually thanks Yvil for doing it (not sarcastic), but please don't bleat about how you should get special treatment for supporting Interest.co.nz, just because you are rich.

by Fritz | 27th May 20, 10:16am 1590531379

Yes he sounds rich, and likes to gloat about that, although he's no doubt bleeding money on his motel and air b and b

by Masher | 27th May 20, 9:53am 1590530021

Remember that time he hopelessly tried to get more people to donate to this website by continually driving home the point that hes a paid member, and therefore should have more privileges? Self interest dressed up as philanthropy.

Yvil reminds me of Gareth Morgan.

by guwop | 27th May 20, 9:09am 1590527377

It's like 1929. Happened before, will happen again.

by The Lark | 27th May 20, 10:15am 1590531324

In reference to taking $$$$ to the casino.
News just in, rbnz have set up booths, at the entrance, passing out assurances as to the good quality of the establishment, for those walking in, and a special "teller" booth on exit, reimbursing any unlucky enough to have incurred a loss.
The "No Worries Casino", already available in most neighbourhood's, be sure to visit today.

by GV 27 | 27th May 20, 9:29am 1590528586

At this point the US market players are just selling numbers on a Federal Reserve spreadsheet to each other.

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 7:55am 1590522930

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/05/coronavirus-survey-reveals…

by Ngrrk | 27th May 20, 8:13am 1590523988

As many people have mentioned on previous threads: this is just the beginning. We are in for a world of hurt unfortunately and those who were already struggling prior to the lockdown will be most severely hit. Interesting that in the survey NZ fared the worst, in part due to low levels of household savings. Who would have thought when you have such high housing/rental costs. What a web we wove.

by GV 27 | 27th May 20, 9:27am 1590528459

Few less avos on toast mate, it will be fine, this is how the world works, you've got to make some sacrifices, interest rates were higher in my day so you've got it easy, etc.

Have I missed anything?

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 8:26am 1590524770

Bad news, time to pump the stock market for a big gain then.

by Becnz | 27th May 20, 9:09am 1590527349

House prices go up banks make more and we get poor invest in banks may be safer than houses if they own the houses.

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 8:06am 1590523586

China gets the blame for the Wuflu but the US should get the blame for up sizing it and inflating an already over sized bubble that will pop and take us all down.

by Hummy | 27th May 20, 8:16am 1590524205

Good that we hear everything that Goes on in China.

by Boatman | 27th May 20, 8:41am 1590525710

@Kezza , Firstly China is notorious for lying in its statistics , so I dont believe their figures .

Secondly , it should be noted China only counted those who died inside a health facility, and there were almost zero deaths in rural China and near ZERO in Beijing . I dont believe it

Wuhan is a major transport hub and the infection made its way from Wuhan to Iran through Chinese workers going there , but did not get to Beijing ?

Get real .

The US on the other hand has counted every fatality , has the noisiest media in the world , and a huge noisy opposition who have had a field month blaming Trump for everything .

China, on the other hand , has no free press, as we well know , arrests Doctors for raising the warning and is highly intolerant of criticism .

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 8:55am 1590526548

Way too deep mate. Sure China is lying.
China started the Wuflu, the US has created something by far worse by knowing it was bad and managing it badly and printing bucks.
Both of them are at fault.

by Foyle | 27th May 20, 9:36am 1590528982

USA lacks tools required to create effective community wide isolation, as significant sections of their population (homeless, illegals, criminals, financially desperate and various ideological extremists) just ignore edicts. Their abysmal health system where people avoid seeking treatment until they are in dire need exacerbates the problem. Add to that high density cities and they end up paying a heavier price than almost all other western countries

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 9:50am 1590529839

But still telling every other country how they should run their affairs.
A toothless giant rotting from within.

by RickStrauss | 27th May 20, 11:54am 1590537249

as significant sections of their population (homeless, illegals, criminals, financially desperate and various ideological extremists) just ignore edicts.

Not just them. It's been the Hannity / Limbaugh consuming crowds that have been out there protesting, dressing up in camo gear and invading city halls with guns etc. The ones who are getting their info from right-wing talking points sources and know mostly to yell "AAHHH KNOW MAAH RAAGHTS!"

by Fritz | 27th May 20, 10:18am 1590531484

No.
China is far more at fault.
The USA has little if anyone to do with the worldwide spread of the virus. China does.

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 10:27am 1590532069

That's what I'm saying BUT the US is responsible for not stopping it better when they knew exactally what was coming and pumping dollars into the system that will collapse the entire system worse than it needed to be.

by youngdumbandbroke | 27th May 20, 1:05pm 1590541514

How many dollars is everyone else, NZ including, pumping also?

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 2:00pm 1590544818

Encouraged by money printing.

by powerdownkiwi | 27th May 20, 8:17am 1590524269

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-05-26/covid-19-neoliberalism-is…

Where NZ - and it's politicians - sits int hat narrative, is the 64 (debt-issued) trillion question.

by Henry_Tull | 27th May 20, 8:20am 1590524456

More management woes in Transmission Gully.

Quick questions, how come this wasn't noted as essential with work being done in April.
Who was the genius that let people travel overseas in lockdown (not knowing how they would ever return).

However, a significant portion of the site engineering and supervision team, about 80 roles, and some of the operations personnel, are at home overseas after leaving the country due to the uncertainty of Covid-19.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12335036

And the Dominion's take, same, but different.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/121626490/potential-redundancies-on…

Q. Does anyone know if it's the stranded workers, now overseas, those workers not here that the contractor wants to make redundant?

by redcows1 | 27th May 20, 11:58am 1590537536

Another of those entities that were in real trouble before the lockdown and the Advent of covid 19 was a absolute blessing for shifting blame/responsibility.

by Boatman | 27th May 20, 8:21am 1590524461

The fact that share market investors are so optimistic indicates there is far too much speculative money chasing yield , any yield .........even at the risk of capital loss

Its either irrational exuberance or utter stupidity

by Henry_Tull | 27th May 20, 8:44am 1590525894

With the amount of QE, and more to come, where else would you anticipate the $ funds to be placed?

by ShoreThing | 27th May 20, 8:46am 1590525985

It's exactly what is supposed to happen when interest rates are so low. Money shouldn't sit idle, it needs to earn a return. When "safe" returns are below inflation, this is what you get.

by Noncents | 27th May 20, 11:22am 1590535378

It is hard to elaborate in a comment, but I have always held that shareprice is related to population. Share price is in no way related to company performance.

Population primarily manifests itself in shares via super. So with Boomers (using the population definition with no negative connotations implied) now at peak investment via super (Investing more than they withdraw), price goes up.

Super virtually guarantees a enormous amount of cash must be invested in shares each month regardless of market conditions/performance. IMO this explains why we saw an almost immediate correction in lockdown as super investments are usually a month or so behind when the salary was paid. Essentially the recovery in shareprices in April I attribute to the March salary run.

As there is still more super being invested, than is currently being withdrawn. Share price can only go one way - up.

I was expecting a long term trend downwards as boomers move from investing to drawing down, with this likely to kick off in about 10 years.

If the Global predictions are correct, unemployment could hit 20%. So a great chunk of the super investment will start dissapearing in the next few months. Combined with some of the boomers looking to retire early due to this. My original 10 year estimate, is probably only about 6-12 months away now.

Interesting times ahead.

by FCM | 27th May 20, 8:28am 1590524922

Friend of ours is being made redundant. The employer is going to pay them the wage subsidy until end of June, which he is thankful for. Went to WINZ asked to register for work, said there was a three week waiting list but he can try and do it online. He applied and got an interview for a supermarket job, for a new one opening up in his town. He was told they had 800 applications for 30 jobs. I hope the government really understands the pain hitting and about to hit our communities and get out of the Beehive bubble..fast.

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 8:36am 1590525402

I'm sure they do FCM but it comes down to how much can the government actually do? Its not the government that has loaded up with private debt and high mortgages and no savings. That has been the average kiwi.

by Henry_Tull | 27th May 20, 8:49am 1590526158

Credit where credit is due, government policy settings, do set policy and give directions to corporate and every day actions.

by GV 27 | 27th May 20, 9:19am 1590527983

At an individual level, one does not have control over the housing, migration and planning levers that the government has manipulated for their own benefit (Growth at all costs) which requires you to take on such massive amounts of debt for things like a house in the first place. 'The average Kiwi' is at the mercy of the Wellington paper shuffling machine, which doesn't make people redundant and or cut their pay during global pandemics.

by Independent_Observer | 27th May 20, 8:59am 1590526768

Robert Shiller's views on markets:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-26/yale-s-shiller-not-sur…

by guwop | 27th May 20, 9:03am 1590526998

This is the final leg up. The big drop incoming.

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 9:16am 1590527811

The bigger they are....

by Andrewj | 27th May 20, 9:07am 1590527222

The new gilded age.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/a-new-gilded-age/?utm_campaign=website&ut…

by RickStrauss | 27th May 20, 11:56am 1590537397

Very interesting article! This particular paragraph works for NZ over the last two decades, albeit here it is land more than shares:

The Long Now IS a New Gilded Age, a top-down imposition of the idea that it is more important for a people to look and feel prosperous than to prosper. Only instead of land speculation and the pretenses of an aristocratic minority, our gilding largely boils down to the current level of the S&P 500 Index.

by Andrewj | 27th May 20, 9:08am 1590527288

The corporate mega bailout begins

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/26/it-starts-the-corporate-mega-bailout-…

by GV 27 | 27th May 20, 9:23am 1590528190

I have a theory we're about to see tested: I am highly doubtful NZers can maintain their standard of living if the dollar drops much further. Yes, it's great for exporters, but not so great if you're filling up the car you need to get to and from work (if you're lucky enough to still have a job) and even luckier still to be on 100% pay.

The high dollar has insulated us from the greed and ticket-clipping that runs rife in NZ. Not only do we have less to spend, but we're about to enter an era where what we do spend buys us less and less. People cannot spend what they are not being paid.

by guwop | 27th May 20, 9:50am 1590529815

Do we actually realize that the world drifts out of reach when the dollar sinks?

by GV 27 | 27th May 20, 10:16am 1590531378

No we don't, nor do we understand the lifestyle we currently lead now at home goes with it. Commentary around the NZD dropping is almost always positive and about export receipts, it's great news, it's more money for farmers! Media coverage is almost always 100% one-sided in talking about what a NZD drop means.

by Andrewj | 27th May 20, 10:19am 1590531577

to be honest if the dollar is low farmers are normaly in the cr*p.

by CourtJester | 27th May 20, 11:18am 1590535083

Do you think the NZD is going to drop much further? With the whole world printing money like there's no tomorrow (maybe there really isn't), why would the NZD get devalued faster than the USD for example? Trump has an election to win, they're gonna keep pumping trillions into the stock market. China is also devaluing its currency further in order to maintain exports. ECB same story, large scale asset purchases.

by Andrewj | 27th May 20, 9:35am 1590528921

Been talking with my daughters , I have five, about the future of the farm. It really needs new ideas and my wife and I need to get out and do new things, they are young with fresh ideas that are really needed.
It's going to be a challenge to let go, I worked for a wonderful old guy when I was young and he told me the knack is to do stuff early, not let nature make the decisions for you, getting too bloody old and getting carried out is never the best option.
Fascinating how my children have so many ideas and see the farm through different eyes. They have all lived and been educated in and out of NZ, all had jobs overseas.
My eldest is the logical one to run the place, she's an extraordinary trader, her husband is from Norway and works in the local hospital, having external income would open up a lot of options for them.
It will be great for my wife and I to get out amongst some people again, my best friend is in Chile and my wife was born in Chelsea so we could do some interesting things. Another mate walked out, bought a boat made in Sweden and is sailing the Med living on the Dalmation coast while in lockdown.

I've been waiting so long for this crazy bubble to blow, i've now given up, I suspect the gov't will bail everyone out anyway. I don't see a bright future fortunately my children do.

I just see inequality, poverty, low expectations and poor outcomes. Fewer and fewer people owning more and more.

I doubt my son in law will want to stay in the NZ hospital system for long, he's already in a bit of shock. They will head back to Norway to educate the children I suspect.

by guwop | 27th May 20, 9:54am 1590530074

Thanks for sharing Andrew. Great to read that your kids have been educated overseas and still have international aspirations. Aren't you worried that a collapsing NZD makes this get out of their reach though? And what about the rising limitations on the international work force?

by Andrewj | 27th May 20, 10:15am 1590531335

My eldest is married to a dr who is super capable and I'm sure will go on to great things, after 10 years of study. The Norwegian Gov't paid for him to finish his studies in London.
My middle daughter started Uni in Christchurch, just before the earthquake, did two years Eng and then moved around went to Uk, tried to get free Uni in Scotland but they wouldn't let her. She then moved to Sweden and applied for residence, everyone said she wouldn't get it, did and got 3 years free Uni at prestigious uni in Stockholm. Now works for NZ gov't. I suspect she will go back to Sweden, she is super confident. Youngest is studying Law at Vic, next one up plays the Violin in California, number two is an artist in film industry. They will survive and my wife's family is very close and supportive, my wife has cousins in Chile so we have a link there, which is another door. Youngest two did secondary school in California, so super motivated.

by Kezza R | 27th May 20, 10:28am 1590532128

I take my hat off to you AJ, it is a big man who can see that and ask others their views and take them on board.

by waymad | 27th May 20, 10:45am 1590533142

Lovely to hear that moving stance ahead of the inevitable is possible for you. Best wishes for whatever decision you come to. Like you I suspect the Five Year Plan will basically saddle our children and theirs with a massive debt for very little outcome beyond a hopefully genteel but certainly lower standard of living.

Re the drought: came across a Herald article by a historian - Michael Fowler - which clearly indicates the long history of drought in the area. Nice quote:

One of the worst droughts ever to strike Hawke's Bay was from 1877 to 1878 when it was reported over that period of 20 months that there was only two decent showers of rain, with Central Hawke's Bay the worst affected.

by Kate | 27th May 20, 11:49am 1590536994

I just see inequality, poverty, low expectations and poor outcomes. Fewer and fewer people owning more and more.

Whereas I see my children's generation believing that is not good enough and being determined to effect change. They are more worldly and more interconnected than we were at their age. They have friends of a much wider socioeconomic demographic. I never thought 'big picture' when raising them. When life is easy you don't need to, I suppose. And of course we didn't have the internet so our worldviews were quite insular.

Costa Rica ranks highly on many happiness measures and the GDP per capita is USD$12,000 - whereas NZ is USD$42,000. Like us, they are a country of 5m.

A visit there is definitely on my bucket list :-).

http://happyplanetindex.org/countries/costa-rica

by scarfie | 27th May 20, 1:59pm 1590544772

Yet my friend has been doing a lot of environmental protection work in Costa Rica. Illegal gold mining in a National Park is rife, he was in there helping local rangers a couple of months ago. The result of that is they are finding $30K USD to buy a tracker dog so they can run down offenders. There is also the problem with locals raiding the nexts of the sea turtles for the eggs. They do have the best coffee for the common man in the world though!

by Fritz | 27th May 20, 9:47am 1590529623

Winston is right, we should (actually MUST) be back at Level 1:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12335076

by Rhumline | 27th May 20, 10:07am 1590530822

David
Can you delete the superfluous 'are' in your Covid-19 summary para. Sorry to be a pedant but it gets me every time.

by Audaxes | 27th May 20, 10:23am 1590531783

Pompeo Blasted by Rep. Eliot Engel for 'Thoughtless' Threat to Cut off Australia From Intel Sharing

The US embassy in Australia sought to downplay the statement the top US diplomat made over the weekend, saying Washington had “absolute confidence” in Canberra’s ability to protect the security of its telecommunications networks and those of its intelligence partners.

by CourtJester | 27th May 20, 11:22am 1590535369

Here's another batch of some useless stats I keep track of for my own entertainment.
Trademe car listings, 1st number is 26th March, 2nd number is 27th May, 3rd number is change percentage.
'Cayenne': 146, 160, +9.6%
'Audi RS': 96, 130, +35.4% (!)
'Ford Ranger': 1494, 1725, +15.5%

Obviously a year-on-year comparison would be more interesting, but I only started tracking these in March. It is also possible that trademe's search algorithm has been adjusted between the two dates.

by waymad | 27th May 20, 12:14pm 1590538468

If only Interest's platform would let us use table html tags....(ears on, DC?) - then the presentation of data like this would be more - er - Tabular....

by Fritz | 27th May 20, 12:56pm 1590540961

I'm really interested to see what the Government's bill on fast-tracking RMA approvals says. Due out in next few days.
It will include a list of govt projects that can go straight to an 'expert panel' for decision making on resource consent.
No rezoning required, no designation required, no public notification, no appeal rights.
I bet my bottom dollar that the Auckland Light rail project will be one of those projects...

by Henry_Tull | 27th May 20, 12:59pm 1590541181

Is this part of the governments recovery plan, Phil Twyford style?

The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment says it has picked the right supplier to get "the best deal for everyone".
New Zealand Companies Office records show Concentrix'sentire shareholding is in Ireland, a tax haven.
"This clearly looks more like a decision about cost as opposed to some real kind of balanced application ... because this is an overseas company with, really, not a very good record around employment relations.
"I do not think that it will be a positive experience for our deaf community."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/417640/government-s-buy-local-commi…