1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll: Support for Labour drops back amid border problems and as Todd Muller takes over National's leadership

1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll: Support for Labour drops back amid border problems and as Todd Muller takes over National's leadership
Jacinda Ardern. Getty Images.

National has taken some support from Labour under Todd Muller's leadership and as the Government has made critical errors at the border.

According to the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll, conducted between June 20 and 24, Labour would receive 50% of the vote - down 9 percentage points from the last poll in mid-May. Meanwhile National would receive 38% - up 9 percentage points. 

Support for Labour is however still strong enough for it to govern on its own. It would get 62 seats in parliament - one more than is necessary to govern.

At 13% in the preferred prime minister ranks, National leader Todd Muller received more support than his predecessor, Simon Bridges, ever did. The most Bridges received was 12% in May 2018. 

36% of people approved of Muller, 27% disapproved and 37% did not know or refused to answer - giving him an approval rating of +9.

Jacinda Ardern remains very popular, with 54% of respondents choosing her as their preferred prime minister. 

NZ First didn't fare well in the poll, with ACT receiving more support than it did. NZ First wouldn't make it to parliament, unless it wins an electorate seat. All eyes will be on whether Shane Jones can secure Northland.

Here are the results in full:

Preferred party:

  • Labour: 50% (-9% points)
  • National: 38% (+9% points)
  • Greens: 6% (+1% point)
  • ACT: 3% (+1% point)
  • NZ First: 2% (-1% point)
  • Maori Party: 1% (no change)
  • New Conservative: 1% (no change)

Preferred prime minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern: 54% (-9% points)
  • Todd Muller: 13% (+13% points)
  • Judith Collins: 2% (-1% point)
  • Winston Peters: 2% (+1% point)

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

88 Comments

14
up

I think National had caught up a lot more if they focused on questioning the border control rather than talking about opening border sooner.

Wait till goods Kiwi's expect cheap; such as blankets, heaters, televisions and kitchenware stops appearing on the shelves. We'll all use Facebook's Marketplace and AliExpress, but I suspect many purchases won't arrive.

Then we will be having a very different kind of border conversation.

Already happening. three weeks before COVID hit NZ (March 26) I ordered an item on Alibaba. Still not arrived. While I accept that COVID restrictions got in the way, the longer it takes the less confident I am of getting the items. I've received two requests for feed back to which i have responded that i have not received them, but not received any response yet.

Interesting comments here. I bought a power adapter for a 20 year old printer through Amazon. It came from a supplier in China and was to arrive sometime between 21st July and 6th August; it arrived the other day after just 2 weeks (shipped via China Post) so I was pretty impressed.

Apply for a refund.

... why do you think those items won't be on the shelves? Container freight continues as normal, more or less.

Airfreight, what you're expecting from aliexpress, was badly affected for a while, but has recovered somewhat.

Airfreight is roughly 3x as expensive as it was pre covid. Seafreight hasnt changed.

I bought a desk from KMart just prior to lockdown which was faulty at one end with a supportive nut system completely missing rendering it unstable. It should have inserted at the factory. Made in China of course, this isnt the first instance of poor quality control from this country. I have contacted KMart on several occasions and they still dont know when new stock will arrive. Why dont we make items like this in NZ, I would be happy to pay another 25% just to get a good product.

Would you be happy to pay another 100%?

And honestly, if you wanted to pay more for a good product, what were you doing at kmart!?

Is that the mark-up of a NZ alternative, is it ?
All products should be of merchanable quality when you purchase it - no excuses !!!
You obviously missed the point !!!

Maybe an opening of sorts won't be the worst thing possible. If somebody could find a way to monetize the two-week quarantine process, so that the taxpayers don't have to foot the entire bill, we could restart 'high-skilled' migration.
NZ has neither the infrastructure nor the technical skills to support a post-tourism, productive economy. We can't realistically build critical assets or a digital economy with an army of out-of-work baristas, chefs and tour guides. What we need is high-skilled professionals and managers from overseas who manage these projects and hire our low-skilled workers to do the fieldwork.

A scheme where employers pay for the full quarantine of their skilled migrants could work + a border processing levy to pay for the customs/biosecurity costs. This would increase incentives for employers to pay local staff more to attract talent rather than relying on cheaper labour from overseas.

Those people you speak of dont generally want to come here..

15
up

Hard to see this 9% as something National earned as opposed to something Labour has just given away tbh.

18
up

Yep especially with national claiming labour are too strict about COVID and their own MP requesting the brits got out of lockdown early. It was pretty shit from labour though; make us all prisoners in our own home, not allowed to attend funerals, etc then let people from other high risk countries leave isolation early, others were getting on the piss at taxpayers cost with recent arrivals the day before they left isolation, etc. both parties are unelectable

Aided and abetted by the media

ha-ha. You are killing me.

plenty more where it came from ...

14
up

Waiting for policies from all.

It's a whole new world out there.

Labour will come up with a few doozies, maybe even without having to poach them..

The thing is, Kate, what do policies really mean anymore? Maybe that is too cynical. But policy seems to have trouble translating to reality for this government.

In a way it could end up about the same as some labour supporters will vote green instead and that should get them above the 5% which looked a bit dicey before.
I can’t vote for this national party and labour seem pretty awful except two or three exceptional performers, greens are looking better all the time.

10
up

Get yer orders in for the Hairshirt with Logo - selling out fast - genuine matagouri sewn in (with indigenous hemp thread) front and back for a truly Exfoliating Experience!

15
up

Tired old stereotypes.

Hey, he didn't mention women with hairy armpits once.

I suspect he's more a monotype. From before the two-speaker age.

NZF 2%, below ACT. Since MMP no government has got there on its own. Understandable that’s what MMP is all about. But, think about that, at their popular peak Clark couldn’t and Key couldn’t cross that line. Muller & National are not even in the same room as those two set ups. National does not have a viable coalition partner. Given all of that National will not be forming a government this year. So folks, look forward then to a Labour/Greens government. All those contributors here yesterday decrying the non viable concept of the airport light rail in Auckland, well now, if it was a Labour/Greens government now, nothing would have stopped it. If NZ gets that make up of a government, then God Defend New Zealand.

I note you have not mentioned KiwiBuild , the border debacle etc. etc. ... is it your view that NZF are responsible for all of them ?

Me I think Lab/Green is perfectly capable of screwing things up on their own ( and sadly not much else ) - and I am not a WP fan ..

Oh most certainly Labour and Greens are very capable of screwing things up on their own. No disagreement on that from me whatsoever. Let us all just review in say eighteen months time, how well they have gone about it. Am I apprehensive? Too right! My point was that I cannot think that a Labour/Greens only government can possibly be what NZ needs.

ps, PH, have gone to edit my previous post, hope it clarifies.

I guess it is better than Nine Years of Nothing from the previous Key government. At least, Labour has stepped up and sorted out the Christchurch Earthquake case that Brownlee and Key let the steering wheel go into freewheeling mode. They also sorted out the Teachers and Nurses pay dispute and are in the process of sorting out the hospitals. So yes, Labour has sorted out a number of stuff-ups National created.

Actually the greens have quite different requirements for light rail. They want the cheaper more accessible surface level version while labour want the hideously expensive underground version. I believe Julie Ann Genter was happy labour’s plans didn’t work out.

Wish she'd said something about two and a half years ago when it became obvious Twyford had lost the plot. Or at any point between then and it benig canned.

Yeah, and that is not what her boss said this week either, loudly too.

If he was able to free up land he would been herald a hero as Don Brash, said to Duncan Garner, that he was doing a great job but the problem was landowners not freeing up sections. Garner was subdued and didn't quite know how to react to that comment.

In a way it could end up about the same as some labour supporters will vote green instead and that should get them above the 5% which looked a bit dicey before.

Sigh. This is *always* the case but no-one seems to realise it. So long as the Greens are polling above 4% and aren't in the middle of a scandal (like Meteria prior to the last election), enough Labour voters will tactically vote for the Greens to ensure they get over 5%.

The previous polls where just under the influence of stockholm syndrome, this one is of no interest either. The only one that matters is on election night. But who in their right mind would want to win that one anyway...signed, "totally over it all"....;)

Thank you for smoking Chris, on the bright side the grinning spray tan will have something to grin about on the AM Show in the morning!

That's still a huge 15 point gulf 3 months out from the election. Even with all the economic woes facing us it is hard to see National bridging that (unless Greens fall under 5%) - incumbent support skyrockets and is only slow to ebb in times of external crisis. Heartening to see NZF languishing.

Yes rewind to those 3 elections during Nationals reign, it’s about the same gap. Labour never got close to closing that gap back then.
It will take yet another monumental labour cockup (doesn’t seem that unlikely), or a smaller cockup if greens don’t get 5%.

10
up

I said earlier this week people are losing any Faith labour can lead a economic recovery, people are realising the WS is no long term solution, and why they are remain silent the swing will gain momentum. They seriously have to start backing up there statements, as people are seeing through them now as BS.

Yes, you're a bit like a broken record, message-wise. This is the future, and the only guarantee is that it will not look like the past.

And the first thing to go, whether an attempt is made globally or not, is 'economic growth'. It's a gone-burger, and don't say you weren't warned.

So the question now is: Who is most future-appropriate? And the answer is.......
The Values Party, circa 1975. I have their Manifesto, and I can't fault it even now. Pity too many were too -------------- to listen.

isn't 1975 in the past?

pdk,

Though I agree with much of what you say, economic growth will not be the first thing to go. The world is imply not ready to embrace the type of economy envisaged by the likes of Kate Rowarth in Doughnut Economics. A great deal of effort will go into promoting GDP growth rates by governments for the foreseeable future. It's a bit like Global Warming. yes, changes are being made in some areas, but globally, we will continue down the same path until we are much closer to the precipice. Of course, by then we may well have passed several tipping points-if we have not done so already.

It's a poisoned chalice. The elected government come September has a snowballs chance in hell of salvaging the economy in its current form. The next couple of years are going to be historic

I'm hopeful that most NZ politicians are more concerned for the future of NZ and doing their best to achieve that (whatever lens they happen to see that through) than they are their own self interest. I think that most MPs are genuinely good people who will be willing to sacrifice their personal ambitions to some degree to support that, NZF excepted.

The instagram filter has worn off.

Guarantee Act are going to achieve higher. It's the 2016 Trump effect. People too scared to admit they are voting right to the general public for fear of personal attack. The voting booth is a very private place. I'm picking they get over 5%.

That’s certainly my hope. I’ve bought tickets for my wife and I for the ACT election launch on 12/7. My politics have always been that end of the spectrum but it’s Seymour that’s making the difference and actually getting my vote this time. National are too centrist and Labour are clearly incompetent, but if that’s what NZ wants then at least I’ll get to say I told you so and they bumble along for another 3 years. As long as Aus continues to take Kiwis my children have an alternative.

I think I may go ACT as well getting a bit sick of the other morons. Labour is hopeless saw Jacinda running for the same bus tonight that they used to throw Ashly Bloomfield under.

11
up

Ex Expat,

ACT is a tax cutting party. It's in their DNA, as with all Right-wing parties. Doesn't it sound wonderful? We will cut tax rates leaving you with more of your hard-earned money in your pocket, rather than handing it over to 'the government'. Oh, and we will do this without any cuts to services. That's exactly what ACT promised before the last election.
If you believe that is possible, then you're an idiot and worse. There is a mountain of evidence that this doesn't work-well actually it does-but only for a tiny percentage of the population-the 1%. Is that what you really want for this country? If so, the sooner you become an ex ex expat the better.

Yep. As the last of the firearm owning dummies who still believed that National was a viable alternative realise that its bloody KY dripping down the back of their thighs, the dawn of enlightenment will guide them to ACT and lo! 250000 adult voters is enough to swing that election violently to the right.

Except 250,000 firearm owners don't support ACT.

because the dummies amongst them still haven't woken up to the truth...

"Guarantee Act are going to achieve higher"

The only probably is Act supporters have been saying that for years. At least with Nationals poll rise Paul Goldsmith is likely to not have to worry so much about having to fight for Epsom now.

We all got to vote for Winston, we need him in the Parliament to give relief to the stuffed shirts.

He's been an odious blot on NZ's electoral landscape for more than 30 years. There will be a lot of cheering (me included) when he finally departs the stage.

A little strong Foyle. I don't agree he has been an odious blot on the electoral scene. He is a maverick, and he does have his foibles but he has a very valuable habit and ability to tell it how is is and what a lot of people are thinking, but have no ability to say and be heard. Plus in the wash up his presence has been a net positive for NZ, where as the same probably could not be said for most other politicians of the major parties.

Strongly disagree, there has been a stench of corruption and entirely self serving behaviour about him ever since the earliest days of MMP - he is currently being investigated by the SFO! It has only become worse in the pork-barreling PGF era. He is a grotty narcissistic populist who sells his political patronage to special interests (fishing, racing) holding the country to ransom to get what he wants for them, and exploits the cognitive decline of geriatrics every 3 years to get his claws into the countries purse strings. Worst NZ politician of my lifetime.

He's not the only one who is being, and has been investigated by the SFO. As to being populist so are many of the other politicians. Corrupt? Take a look at most of the rest, especially longer serving Nats. He really is not much different than the rest, but he does say what most often needs to be said, but the other parties would prefer not said. Self serving? What about Helen Clark and John Key just to mention two, just as guilty as WP of the foibles you mentioned.

Aren't the National Party also being investigated by the SFO?

Agree. His attitude is totally arrogant at the moment. I think his Time Clock has ticked its last tock. Time to go Winston. I carn't see Shane Jones winning the Northland seat. Its a bridge too far. I haven't been impressed with Tracy Martin looking after the retirees.Goobye, NZ First.

You missed the bit about being a shameless liar and a fraud

Bunch of fickle morons. I was going to say 'Kiwis', but it's really just 'people'.

Labour really knows how to lose elections I think.

All you had to do was ensure no more COVID outbreaks and to make sure you fire Twyford for being utterly useless.

You did neither, so you will suffer.

I'm expecting the poll numbers to close. If a single case of Covid-19 goes community spread then Labour is toast.

Depends how the community spread is responded to and dealt with. Yes, ideally none would happen. But if it is detected and brought under control quickly, without elevating the lockdown levels, then depending on the circumstances, that could be a net positive for Labour.

It is a shame that the National Parties only path to power is if COVID got out into the community and went unstoppable.

Sort of explains why they are so eager to open borders.

Don't forget about Clark. Labour has lots of makeup, scratch the surface and it's a fairly ugly picture.

Clark and Twyford, arguably two of the biggest morons in NZ's political history.
Knobs.

The are definitely Labours Smith and Brownlee!

Clark deserves some stick for having a tin ear. But I had a quick scan through the relevant legislation, and does appear that DG of Health has legislated primary apolitical responsibility for control of quarantines and other details surrounding epidemics (which includes the lockdowns) - hence why Clark was pushed aside for the lockdown management, and Ardern conspicuously appropriating the limelight as front person marginalized him even further. Clark can (IMHO) fairly point to Bloomfield as being responsible - his rules, his team.

Who has National got though? - Their leader has never been a minister or had any experience at that level. They have a couple of good performers such as Goldsmith and Adams. But dig deeper and you have Gerry Brownlee, Nick Smith, Paula Bennett and Judith Collins.

The lack of depth on both sides is very worrying. Its such a shame the Key and English never really looked to develop talent up the ranks.

Industrial farming gains 9 points!

National are screwed.
Took two flights a few days ago and the difference in peoples attitude was amazing.
Both times the plane came to a halt and where in the past almost everyone jumped up and dragged gear out of lockers and rushed for the exits these flights were a total contrast.
Everyone sat around waiting for others to go first, unbelievably curtious . I'm not sure why the change but I don't see it being good for National.
In addition I talked to a Motelier from a provincial town. They've kept their prices and are still 60-70% during the week and 90-100% on weekends. Their city friends have dropped their pants and still can't get near that.
Interesting times.

Really weird to extrapolate political leanings from behaviour of plane occupants when it reaches its destination.

I agree. And yet a poll of any sort can be a simple extrapolation of the general mood of the polled. The actions on the plane to me were an extremely stark contrast to previous experience and I associated it , rightly or wrongly wind our PMs "kindness".
I'd also note how much faster the plane emptied without people trying to rush. Bit like the science of slowing motorways to steady slow speed makes them faster.

Only three things have changed since the last set of polls, of which it only appears two are having an effect:
1. Labour has lost some of its crisis boost in support as NZ has become COVID-free (no community transmission).
2. The issues at the border. Although none of the experts are getting overly excited about border lapses the media has gone into meltdown and National are laying on the hyperbole with ridiculous statements about "national disgrace" conveniently ignoring the multiple hypocrisies inherent in that approach.This has undoubtedly cut into Labour's lead but may just be temporary as the lack of any community transmission resulting from border lapses, and, presumably, a more robust system at the border, become clear.
For the record I am not a Labour member or supporter and have never in my life voted Labour.... yet. But credit where it's due they've done well during this crisis with few notable exceptions (Clark being the obvious one).
3. The new National leader. This seems to have had little effect on the polls and must be disheartening for National. Getting more support than Bridges is hardly an achievement. More people have Ardern as preferred PM than say they will vote Labour, yet only a third of National voters support Muller. And this should be his honeymoon period!

Seems pretty certain that the lack of new cases for 2-3weeks was entirely down to the lack of testing in quarantine - given we are now seeing a couple of cases a day in quarantine. If it hasn't escaped into the community that will be more due to good luck than good management, and when you consider the lockdown costs $100's of millions a day that is unacceptably lax (though it seems that universal mask wearing can eliminate need for lockdown if we get a small flair up).

I agree luck played a part here but the two women's roadtrip to Wellington was nearly two weeks ago and there has been extensive testing since then with no evidence of any transmission. With the tightening of the border controls since then, and with no cases showing up other than at the border it is looking like we dodged a bullet. In the months until the election this minor cock-up will be put in perspective by the raging pandemic outside our borders, and it will make the Labour response look very good. Labour will do whatever it can to minimise the downsides (which are/will be huge) until after the election.

Agree Muller has been nearly non existent..I'm thinking they are all saving the policy up the sleeve until 6 weeks out. Which to me (although I know this is the usual case) is disgusting given the current environment, and businesses want to know what the plan from the government's view is for recovery. Whilst they play these games, thousands are losing their jobs, as they are out of touch with whats going on in the community, so I hope some of them loose their seats come September.

Just wait until Jacinda fronts, "Read my lips. No new taxes"

With less than 3 months to go and finally Labour has begun to bleed support. It's interesting that their coalition partners picked up very little of it (Greens, +1%). National will have received the other 8%, but they lost 1% of their own vote to ACT. Nett gain, 7%.
The big loser is NZ First. They have made a strategy of stealing National votes for a few years now, but the few National defectors have gone to ACT. Even Jones trying to get them over the line by standing in a National seat (Northland) is 'spitting into a head wind', in my view. It will be interesting to see if National can protect its 'soft underbelly' over the coming weeks.
People and the media make a big deal about personalities (Ardern vs. Muller vs. Peters, etc). I'm just waiting to see POLICY. It's very conspicuous by its silence so far.

National voters will do what they often do. Sit pretty and decide their intentions closer to the time. If it looks like Labour / Geens are a slam dunk they will flood their votes to NZF as the handbrake. Its just simply too early to tell.

Wait for 20 Billion that government is holding to release just before the election.

More freebies comming.

A summer energy payment? Air conditioners don't run themselves

Lies, damned lies and 'internal polling' Willie Jackson on am show and Garner last night say that Lab and Nats are both polling in 40's (based on Lab internal polling). might be tighter than we know.

No doubt when the border opens we'll continue to be sold out to the CCP.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300041520/new-zealand-...

I'm surprised Labour hasn't slipped further in the polls. I'll be voting for the Ban 1080 Party at this rate!