Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB cut three of its fixed rates today, for 6m, 1yr and 3 years, the last two to levels already adopted by others, and the 6m rate to the lowest of the main banks. Police Credit Union also cut fixed rates, as did NZCU Baywide.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ASB has set a new low benchmark with cuts to term deposit rates, matching some of Kiwibank's rate levels. NZCU Baywide cut too.
LITTLE BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE
The lockdown didn't permanently improve how we used our credit cards. Credit card balances rose +$282 mln in June from May to $6.3 bln, but that is a very lame result, even if they also rose +$255 mln in May. That is because these balances fell a sharp -$481 mln in March from February, and another -$1.1 bln in April from March. These credit card balances are now down -14% year-on-year. Meanwhile, billings on credit cards were up to $3.5 bln in June, and that is a pretty normal level. Actually, it is +9% higher than June 2019, but is the average monthly billings level in the March 2019 to March 2020 period. Other credit card data shows that we are leaving more of our balances on these cards incurring interest. The balances incurring interest in May rose to 64% of the amounts outstanding and that is its highest since early 2016. More analysis here.
TURNOVER TUMBLES
According to the ANZ MicroScope survey of small SMEs, confidence plunged in the June quarter as Covid-19 bit and decimated activity. Growth has evaporated but regulatory requirements remain the biggest concern. Continuing low turnover is what is supposed to be the bounce-back period is a growing worry, says ANZ.
TAINTED MEMBERS QUIT
The Labour Party's Raymond Huo has decided to not stand at the next election, after having been confirmed on the party's List at an electable #26. He follows the National Party's Jian Yang who has also bowed out. Both have been tainted by their close links to the Chinese Government.
LOWER & LONGER
The Australian Government is about to extend and cut back its JobKeeper program which currently pays AU$750 per week whether for full or part-time work. The new full time support payment will be AU$600/week, the part-time payment significantly less at AU$375/week. The extension will be from September to March 2021 and will mean part-time workers will no longer get the same as full-time workers. And the revised version of their boosted jobless (JobSeeker) payment of $550/week will go down to AU$350/week. It is expected the extended program will cost AU$16 bln.
EQUITY UPDATES
The S&P500 rose +0.8% in the Wall Street session earlier today, boosted by rumours of promising vaccine trials. Shanghai has opened modestly after yesterday's +3.1% jump. But both Hong Kong (+1.5%) and Tokyo (+0.6%) are rising in something of a catchup mode. Locally, the ASX200 is up +1.4% in early afternoon trade, and the NZX50 Capital Index is up +1.5% in late trade, with F&P Healthcare up +3.1% and A2Milk up +2.8% so far today.
SWAP RATES UPDATE
Swap rates probably shifted marginally flatter yet again today. We don't have final wholesale swap rates movement details yet but we will update this later in the day if they show a significant movement. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.30%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is dipped -1 bp to 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is down by -4 bps to 2.95%. The NZ Govt 10yr yield is also down another -1 bp at 0.87%. The UST 10yr is also down -1 bp at 0.61%.
NZ DOLLAR FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar has inched up all day to now be at 65.8 USc and almost a +½c rise since this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 57.5 euro cents. And that means the TWI-5 is now just under 70.1.
BITCOIN STABLE
The price of bitcoin is virtually unchanged today at US$9,193. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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35 Comments
https://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/ardern-vs-collins-round-one-goes-pm
Considering the source, an insightful comment.
Over 4 weeks have passed since the first funding allocation towards shovel-ready projects and no further progress on the remaining $2.1 billion.
And Todd McClay:
US democracy watchdog Freedom House accuses MP Todd McClay of 'echoing' China to 'justify mass detentions' in Xinjiang
"New Zealand lawmaker Todd McClay recently referred to the forced indoctrination camps for Muslim minorities in Xinjiang as 'vocational training centers,' echoing the terminology used by the Chinese government and state media to justify the mass detentions."
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/01/us-democracy-watchdog-f…
With so many CCP influenced NZ citizens a ban on foreign donations will have lttle effect. Time to bite the bullet and have state funding of NZ political parties. The alternative is we will end up an oligarchy when money equates to influence. When that happens a pandemic may leave Kiwi residents stranded in foreign countries while foreign film crew get preferential permission to enter NZ.
Moves in silver and silver miner prices, particularly juniors, now looking epic. It was noted this morning on the interest dot co morning round up. Was a little surprised to see others actually taking any notice. The financial media and media in general don't pay much attention to it.
I was just going to come and say the same thing. It amazes me how little attention this is getting. For those that have been following silver for a while its absolutely fascinating.
Its only got a 5,000 year track record, and our monetary system is dying a slow death. Who would have thought?
The moves from March are actually some of the most dramatic ever, but you need to look at it within the context of 'everything'. Anyone who has followed silver for some time (10 years+) are quite a resilent bunch. Furthermore, the silver price appears to be far more suppressed than that of gold thanks to JP Morgan with the blessing of the financial elites.
I paid $36.20 each for 1oz Silver Maples a few weeks ago, now they not listed on the Sellers site and Krugerrands are $41.90. I’m thinking of buying Platinum Maples next. Anything I can store away for the apocalypse is good. Silver may be a winner but it takes a large safe to hold even a modest $ amount
As per above credit card payments may be a sign we are about to hit the downturn as people are not paying off and incurring interest at a greater rate.
I have seen an uptick in layoffs in my greater family just in last week so we have delayed what is yet to happen and as per other comments we will soon see how bad it will get.
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