Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ has today trimmed a couple of fixed rates, bringing them into line with their main rivals.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac's Notice Saver account has had its rate trimmed. (BNZ cut TD rates yesterday.) TSB cut their at-call rates. First CU cut rates too. There will be more reductions on Monday.
THE IMPROVEMENT STOPS
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey hasn't produced a further improvement. ANZ says: "Consumer confidence was basically unchanged at 104.3 in July, still well under its historical average but also well off its lows. The net proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item gave up 5 points, falling to 0%, a recessionary level. Just like the ANZ Business Outlook survey, it looks like the bounce may be done, and incomplete. Household incomes will come under more pressure from a weaker labour market as wage subsidies roll off."
Credit Union Baywide, the country’s largest credit union has shuttered 10 of its 31 branches, in Whangarei, Otara (with 3 other Credit Union Baywide branches remaining in Auckland), Hamilton, Opotiki, Te Puke, Wairoa, Taradale, Dannevirke, Masterton and Porirua. This comes after a review of what their 60,000 member customers need for services. At the same time they are adding 34 staff in their Contact Centre and Digital Services teams.
FUZZY LINE IN THE SAND
The RBNZ's Geoff Bascand says the central bank doesn't want a cliff end to mortgage repayment deferrals. He also says the implementation of 'aspects’ of new bank capital rules shouldn't be further delayed.
BUILDING CASH RESERVES
Household deposits are rising fast again. There are up +$1 bln in June from May, and up +14 bln in a year to $195 bln. The year-on-year growth of +7.9% is the fastest expansion in nearly three years.
THE SLOWDOWN SPREADS ...
Debt growth (the basis of bank earnings) is slowing. Bank mortgage debt rose +$1.2 bln in June from May and apart from the April blip, that was its smallest rise since early 2019 and the smallest June rise in five years. The year-on-year rise of +6.1% was the slowest gain of 2020.
... AND SPREADS FURTHER
Meanwhile, the growth in business debt has evaporated, falling -$1.8 bln since May, and that is on top of the -$1.3 bln fall in May from April. The Government's IRD bank option (interest free and probably payment free at some point too, undermines the commercial basis of SME business lending). Year-on-year this is +2.7% and the slowest annual growth in six years.
A Dunedin Ponzi operator has been sentenced to eight years and ten months’ imprisonment, with a minimum non-parole period of five years and four months. Barry Edward Kloogh (57) who ran a Ponzi scheme for more than 20 years was sentenced today in the Dunedin District Court. He had previously admitted to charges of ‘False accounting’, ‘False statement by promoters’, ‘Theft by person in special relationship’, ‘Obtaining by deception’ and ‘Forgery’ brought by the Serious Fraud Office.
The S&P500 ended the session earlier today down by -0.4%. After the close, some major tech firms reported results. The futures index indicated tomorrow will open -0.5% lower. Shanghai has opened today flat, Hong Kong is alos flat, but Tokyo is a sharp -2.2% lower. The ASX200 is tracking down -1.6% and is heading for a weekly decline of -1.3%. The NZX50 Capital Index is flat close to the end of trade, and is heading for a +0.5% weekly gain.
SWAP RATES UPDATE
Swap rates were probably much flatter today with most of the reductions coming at the long end. We don't have final wholesale swap rates movement details yet, but we will update this later in the day if they show a significant different movement. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.30%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -4 bps at 0.83%. The China Govt 10yr is firmer at +1 bp at 2.97%. And the NZ Govt 10yr yield is down a sharp -5 bps to 0.77% and the lowest since late May. The UST 10yr has also fallen a sharp -5 bps and is now at 0.53% and an all-time record low.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has firmed today and is now just on 66.9 USc. And against the Aussie we are little-changed at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally weaker at 56.3 euro cents. And that means the TWI-5 is unchanged at 69.7.
BITCOIN STAYS FIRM
The price of bitcoin has hardly moved today, now at US$11,018. For the week however, it is on track for a +14% gain. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».