Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.
Latest preliminary results from the ANZ Business Outlook confidence survey suggest the post-lockdown economic rebound may have run its course. Business confidence deteriorated 10 points to -42%, and own activity slipped 8 points to -17%. However, it wasn’t all one-way traffic in the indicators.
CHINESE INFLATION BENEFITS US
Inflation in China is rising. In July it was up to 2.7% pa, a rise from 2.5% in June and more than the 2.6% expected. Food prices are rising fast (+11.9% pa) driven by pork prices (up more than +100% pa). Beef prices however seem to have stopped rising in recent months but lamb prices are still going up, up +11% year-on-year and up +1.1% in July from June. The cost of medical care, and education, both are rising at only modest rates. Rent is declining. Petrol went up sharply in July, but is down significantly year-on-year (-12.6%).
The number of people missing payments on consumer debt fell again in the week to July 31, according to the latest RBNZ update, and this level is now the lowest since data was first collected in late March. But the number of homeowners missing mortgage payments is holding, and the number of businesses missing loan payments are both virtually unchanged in this update.
70/30 SPEND/SAVE IMPULSE
One in three Australians (32%) received a Federal stimulus payment in May. These payments were intended to stimulate spending, but many (29%) used them to add to their saving. However, using them to pay household bills was the next most common use (28%) and 12% of this money was used to buy food.
Hong Kong police have been sweeping up the owners of an independent news organisation, Next Digital, accusing them of endangering national security and working for foreign powers. They were handcuffed, removed and denied access to lawyers. Independent reporting out of Hong Kong is now suspect.
The NZX50 Capital Index started its Monday session up +0.5%, but those gains have withered since. This is the week that major earnings results will be released, so it could be a bumpy ride. In Australia, the ASX200 has opened up +1.4% but hasn't reached a withering stage yet. The Shanghai market has opened up +0.4%, Hong Kong has opened down -0.4% and Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. According to the futures index (SPX), Wall Street is looking like it will open tomorrow flat.
SWAP RATES UPDATE
Swap rates were probably little-changed again today. We don't have final wholesale swap rates movement details yet, but we will update this later in the day if they show a significant different movement. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.30%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +2 bps at 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.00%. And the NZ Govt 10yr yield has held on to all of last week's gain and is still at 0.77%. The UST 10yr is also unchanged at 0.57% today.
NZ DOLLAR SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has stayed at the lower level it reached on Saturday, now still at 66.1 USc. And against the Aussie we are softer as well at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are at 56 euro cents. And that means the TWI-5 is softer at 69.2.
BITCOIN RISES STRONGLY
The price of bitcoin is firmer today, now at US$12,022 and a +5.2% rise from this morning. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».