What happened Monday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; strong rise in homes completed, retail sales slump, interest-free 'loans' popular; bank NIMs dive, swaps eyed, NZD firm, & more

24th Aug 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

ID 22702269 © Daniaphoto | Dreamstime.com

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. But this is a review of where rates stand at the moment.

STRONG RISE
The number of new homes completed in Auckland in June was up +22% year-on-year, Auckland Council figures show.

RECORD RETAIL SALES FALL
Statistics New Zealand says retail sales plummeted -15% in the lockdown-affected June quarter.

OVER $1.5 BLN LOANED BY GOVT TO SMES
A total of $1.5 bln had been lent through the Government's Small Business Cashflow Loan Scheme by August 20. Designed to help SMEs struggling through the COVID-19 crisis, 94% of 99,000 applications received for the IRD administered scheme have been approved. A total of $1.6 bln of lending has been applied for, IRD says. With $1.5 bln disbursed, the average loan size is $16,523. The loans are interest free if repaid within a year. Thereafter an interest rate of 3% will be charged for a maximum term of five years, but repayments aren't required for the first two years.

MARGINS TIGHTEN SHARPLY
Overall bank interest margins fell from 1.98% in the March quarter to 1.82% in the June quarter and a new record low. It was the largest quarter-on-quarter fall in five years and the largest year-on-year fall since 2009. A year ago they were at 2.09%. Since the RBNZ has been publishing this data in June 1991, they started at their maximum of 3.26% back in 1991 and have fallen steadily since. In the 1990s they averaged 2.86%, in the 2000s they averaged 2.31%, and in the 2010s they averaged 2.18%. (According to RBA data, the major bank NIMs in Australia are about 2.10%.) Tomorrow the RBNZ releases its Dashboard data and we will then get some transparency of NIMs by institution.

STEADY, BUT FRAGILE
Sydney's auction clearance rates are only marginally weaker than a year ago. But Melbourne's are sharply lower, and interestingly so are Brisbane's. This data is for last week. Overall they are claiming a 'steady' housing market, but is clearly at a very fragile point.

EQUITY UPDATES
Shanghai has opened in a volatile mood, but is currently unchanged on the day in early trade. Hon Kong however is up a very strong +1.3% in early trade. Tokyo is up a more modest +0.3% so far., the ASX200 is flat in early afternoon trade, while the NZX50 is up +0.6% in late trade. The S&P500 futures market suggests New York will open up a modest +0.3% tomorrow.

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Update: Swap rates were basically unchanged today except for the long end which fell again, with the 10 year down to a new record low of 0.49%. ~~Today's swap rates aren't available yet. We will update this note if there is a significant movement~~. The 90-day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.28%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -2 bps at 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is basically unchanged at 3.01%. And the NZ Govt 10yr yield is also unchanged at 0.62%. (It's all-time low was 0.49% reached in mid-May.) The UST 10yr is down -2 bps at 0.63%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time on Friday at 65.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also firmer at 55.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up marginally st 68.5.

BITCOIN FALLS MARGINALLY
The price of bitcoin has softened today from Friday to US$11,669 and a slip of -1.5%. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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40 Comments

by Glitzy | 24th Aug 20, 4:04pm 1598241868

"NZ Govt 10yr yield is also unchanged at 0.62%. (It's all-time low was 0.49% reached in mid-May.) ".

Nice job.

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 4:21pm 1598242881

AMP leadership quitting over sexual miscounduct issue. Finance industry still crawling with dinosaur white men who have a high level of self importance.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-24/amp-chair-david-murray-director-…

by ShoreThing | 24th Aug 20, 4:28pm 1598243315

Boe Pahari isn't a white man, not that the colour of either of their skin has anything to do with anything - why did you bring it up, JC?

by Te Kooti | 24th Aug 20, 5:02pm 1598245321

White men don't have a monopoly on behaving poorly, it's just they are over-represented in senior roles so it's more visible. Apparently AMP had just appointed him to lead their Culture and Inclusion Review, which I think is sometimes referred to as being tone deaf. That sort of move is what takes a Chairman out.

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 5:34pm 1598247285

White men don't have a monopoly on behaving poorly, it's just they are over-represented in senior roles so it's more visible.

A monopoly on power in the world of finance. Glad to see them get shafted today.

by gingerninja | 24th Aug 20, 7:07pm 1598252855

I don't think constantly attacking white men is going to get us where we want to go. It will just end up setting up another cycle of hate.

Let's also remember that it was white men that began the humanist movement, that fought for the end of slavery (Walpole), that invented democracy and led the countries that eventually delivered universal suffrage and human rights. It was an ugly and non-linear journey at times, but it was still the European continent that birthed it and no other. Plenty of other cultures have peaked in wealth, colonialism and dominance, but none other granted the legal and political rights to so many, that European nations did. There wasn't some beautiful utopia out in the world before Western colonialism, the South Americas were enslaving and murdering/sacrificing each other, slavery had been ongoing on the African continent economy the entire time *before* the Age of Discovery. The Mongol Empire were responsible for around 40 million deaths in the 13th and 14th century. A percentage of the world population unmatched in scale of brutality and genocide before or since but do we constantly refer back to East Asian genocide and colonialism? NO NEVER. Do we talk about how many cultures and languages the Muslim Conquests wiped out? NOPE. Despite the massive impact that all these other empires had on the how the world developed.

Every culture has done wrong to each other, it's the nature of humanity that is the issue here.

The very fact that we *can* look back on Western culture with a rational critique without being hung for heresy or treason is the very product of the critical self reflection that European culture developed. At some point, we need to focus on the human nature and not skin colour, or we will just end up setting up the next culture of hate, war or genocide.

by Ngrrk | 24th Aug 20, 7:11pm 1598253066

Well said!!

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 7:36pm 1598254582

I don't think constantly attacking white men is going to get us where we want to go

Nobody's attacking 'white men' in general. The vast majority of white men are not in the position to direct proceedings as they see fit as in the AMP case.

by gingerninja | 24th Aug 20, 7:51pm 1598255514

If we're not attacking white men in general then why mention skin colour? My guess is that if it was a man of non-white skin colour who had committed the crimes then the skin colour would not have been mentioned at all, despite the fact that such acts happen across all cultures. I have certainly been harassed by men of every conceivable skin colour and culture! I have also been treated with respect and equality by men of every conceivable skin colour and culture.

It's not that there isn't and hasn't been white privilege in modern culture. I just disagree that focusing constantly and blaming white men as the cause of all ills, is the way we will progress. I disagree that focusing on skin colour or difference is the way to progress, especially when the great majority of white men have harmed nothing and no one, so attacking them constantly, is almost certainly contributing to alienation and LESS of a sense of commonality across cultures.

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 8:05pm 1598256340

If we're not attacking white men in general then why mention skin colour? My guess is that if it was a man of non-white skin colour who had committed the crimes then the skin colour....

Because dinosaur white men shape the attitudes of these institutions and have unequal power. They are the ones who were exposed during the Royal Commission and the same ones who trivialized the sexual assault debacle. The fact that the culprit of the sexual assault is non-white is irrelevant.

by gingerninja | 24th Aug 20, 8:21pm 1598257312

Okay, so sexual assault is not a skin colour issue. It happened before "white" people had any kind of power or influence in the world. Inequality between the sexes has existed for all of history that we know of. We're not sure about pre-history, it seems before the Neolithic, there may have been less inequality, but it's still speculative. For at least 5000 years though, women have been treated as less than men, often as no more than chattels. It's not a white issue.
I agree that there are many white men, in modern culture, that influence attitudes towards women, some good, some bad. But there are many men, of many cultures that also influence that. It's not monolithic. I don't think divisive language like "dinosaur white men" is helpful.

by KH | 24th Aug 20, 8:22pm 1598257357

@JC: I am an old white man but as a group we can be criticised, even abused, and endless group assumptions can be made about us as individuals.
Ageism, racism and sexism is regarded badly now, but is OK if directed at the OWM by the woke.
Weird.

by gingerninja | 24th Aug 20, 8:47pm 1598258868

Exactly my point. The same group who claim they want an end to hate speak and victimisation, are using hate speak and victimisation, with no sense of the hypocrisy and danger of that. There is just so much hate and anger out there, social media amplifies it. The cycle of hate just goes round and round. No one wants to accept that the flaws are there within all people, we always want a group to blame.

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 9:21pm 1598260879

The same group who claim they want an end to hate speak and victimisation, are using hate speak and victimisation, with no sense of the hypocrisy and danger of that

Hate speech? To suggest that power structures of financial corporate culture is weighted towards the the dinosaur white men? Does that also mean that the 'old boys' club' is simply a figment of people's imagination?

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 9:29pm 1598261397

Ageism, racism and sexism is regarded badly now, but is OK if directed at the OWM by the woke.

AMP has threatened employees with possible "termination" if they are found to be leaking information to the press, which the company says is damaging its "reputation" as it battles multiple sexual harassment allegations against top executives.

AMP's second largest institutional shareholder, Allan Gray, last week warned it was "difficult to know whether AMP's cultural and moral compass is on a sustainable footing" and that the board "appears to be tone deaf to the cultural issues at play".

Lawyers acting for Ms Szlakowski, Maurice Blackburn, are in discussions with AMP over the release of documents tied to an independent investigation into her complaint, after she accused AMP of "persistent and misleading" attempts to play down the seriousness of the complaint.

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/culture-of-fear-amp-th….

by KH | 24th Aug 20, 9:43pm 1598262186

I think you have lost your way JC. Ageism, Racism Sexism have caught you.
You out yourself.

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 9:53pm 1598262827

Nothing to do with ageism, racism, or sexism and everything to do with self-interested power structures that are dominated overwhemingly by dinosaur white men. If you don't believe they exist, that's fine.

by KH | 25th Aug 20, 8:15am 1598300129

JC: Your ingrained view on the OWM by definition is ageist (O) racist (W) and sexist (M).
My working life was in a profession dominated by women. Plenty of those especially in our biggest corporates often government.
But your predjudice has not let you notice those.

by Foyle | 24th Aug 20, 10:10pm 1598263810

A funny take on the shared beliefs of woke and white supremacists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev373c7wSRg

by Audaxes | 24th Aug 20, 7:37pm 1598254666

Some ill deeds just linger on in the societies that committed them,

"Father stares at the hand and foot of his five-year-old, severed as a punishment for failing to make the daily rubber quota, Belgian Congo, 1904"

This is and always will be the West, so I don't trust anyone raised in that part of the world Link

by Te Kooti | 24th Aug 20, 7:55pm 1598255746

Not sure what your point is here, the atrocities committed here were mostly indirect by mercenaries paid by Leopold.

by gingerninja | 24th Aug 20, 8:04pm 1598256265

I'm not, nor would I ever deny Western atrocities. And many such atrocities in Europe were done to each other, well before a concept such as "Western culture" was ever conceived of.

Go back in history and it was tribe against tribe. Then city against city. Then nation against nation. Then religion against religion and now? Continents, Political Structures? What? When will we just accept that all human beings have the capacity for cruelty and harm but that as a social species, we can work towards creating social norm where we reject *all* cruelty and harm? Obsessing about skin colour is not going to help us see ourselves as one species, *all* deserving of human rights. We will just end up back in a cycle of hate creating "others".

by Te Kooti | 24th Aug 20, 8:21pm 1598257272

"Obsessing about skin colour is not going to help us see ourselves as one species, *all* deserving of human rights. We will just end up back in a cycle of hate creating "

Maori and Pasifika (24% total population), 65% of the prison population and 1% of NZX50 board directors and management - and it's not because we're not smart enough.

by gingerninja | 24th Aug 20, 8:33pm 1598257990

I whole heartedly think its important to examine, question, challenge and tackle inequality. I'm not wanting to suggest we sweep that under the rug. I'm not saying that skin colour or ethnicity issues don't exist, they very much do. I am just saying that attacking someone's action and blaming on their skin colour is just more of the same and potentially setting up further cycles of hate and resentment.

We have to acknowledge that power has and will continue to move around different cultures. And that wherever it moves next, there will be corruptions and abuses, because those things are repeatedly recreated in human power structures and cultures. It's important to critique and challenge existing power structures, which will invariably display corruptions and self interest, but it's not "whiteness" that causes that, it's a human problem.

by Te Kooti | 24th Aug 20, 9:12pm 1598260350

Good for you GN, you sound a good sort. It's not anti-whiteness at all, white men are responsible for extraordinary feats of bravery, engineering and the arts.

by Solve_it | 24th Aug 20, 9:55pm 1598262953

I disagree, not entirely with your comments GN, but do feel that there is a subtlety here that you are missing, that is super important.
You say power moves around, and that where there is power, there are abuses of power. This I completely agree with. However there is the need to be able to identify this and call it out. People need to be able to do so in a simple direct way. PC gone mad (which is what your comments sound like to me) removes the tools that allow the rebalance of power from those who really need it.
J.C. is right, there definitely is still a boys club attitude / cliques in many industries. I'm in a male industry and spent the first 15 years of my life denying its existence hoping it was actually down to "personality differences", and if I made myself more masculine in the way I handled myself at work, and the way I socialised after work (i.e found a common ground with the game makers, all the other chicks just hadn't tried hard enough...) I would get ahead.
Well in my old age, I understand that there definitely is a boys club in nearly every workplace I have been, yes I could have infiltrated it, and I did at one point, but having got there I realised I didn't care for it and have since remained more or less completely ambitionless. I do my day to day work, and go home, which serves me well.
Having been down the garden path, have I earnt the right to call certain groups "stale white male"? As much as it disappoints myself to ever need to or want to, I do. And sometimes it is needed.
F* em GN, they exist and they suck b*lls.

by Noncents | 24th Aug 20, 10:16pm 1598264190

However there is the need to be able to identify this and call it out. People need to be able to do so in a simple direct way. PC gone mad (which is what your comments sound like to me) removes the tools that allow the rebalance of power from those who really need it.

You are right, but you can point out the crime, without referring to the criminals skin colour, age, gender, religion, etc... When you start to focus on the "Stale white male" you are defining a group, not a person. It may be that the person causing your issue was white, male, and "Stale". But that does not mean that all are bad.

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 10:48pm 1598266119

When you start to focus on the "Stale white male" you are defining a group, not a person

Correct. Dinosaur white men, 'old boy's club'. I am definitely defining a "group" that is prevalent in running the show in the finance industry. They're not all inherently bad people, but their own self interests and preservation take priority over other stakeholders. And that is clearly the case at AMP. The findings of the Royal Commission was supposed to change all that. It's clear nothing has changed.

Denying this exists is not standing up against PC or woke. It's simply ignorance of how the system works.

by Noncents | 24th Aug 20, 11:02pm 1598266966

I don't think it is a demographical issue. From my own experience, it is more a personality trait amongst those that seek to "rule".

It is also vital to distinguish between rulers and leaders. You follow a leader, you obey a ruler.

Most entities have rulers rather than leaders (Case in Point AMP).

by KH | 24th Aug 20, 8:09pm 1598256595

Excellent post Gingerninja

by J.C. | 24th Aug 20, 5:33pm 1598247197

Boe Pahari isn't a white man, not that the colour of either of their skin has anything to do with anything - why did you bring it up, JC?

David Murray and John Fraser are the dinosaur white men whose management and attitudes are out of touch. AMP had already been exposed in the Royal Commission for their questionable ethics and behavior. And how did the dinosaur white men respond in this case? Launched their own 'non-independent' investigation into sexual harassment; treated the victim so that she left the company; recovered 25% of the bonus for Pahari; and promoted Pahari to their biggest business division.

by Squishy | 24th Aug 20, 4:30pm 1598243408

My vehicle insurance provider offered me a policy refund for the period of the Covid-19 lockdown today. Frankly I was shocked by how equitably they are behaving towards customers!

by ShoreThing | 24th Aug 20, 4:31pm 1598243518

Who is your insurer? Mine haven't, I'll have to ask them about this.

by Glitzy | 24th Aug 20, 4:34pm 1598243652

I got a small refund from Tower, not requested, they emailed me.

by bw | 24th Aug 20, 4:46pm 1598244366

AA did the same - email and direct credit the next day.

by Squishy | 24th Aug 20, 5:32pm 1598247162

I'm with TradeMe.

My wife, who insures with Kiwibank, hasn't been offered a refund either so your not alone in being left out. I suppose it just boils down to how ethical a company is since they are probably under no legal obligation to return premiums.

by Rhumline | 24th Aug 20, 8:20pm 1598257219

I got the same from AA. But 'nothing heard' from my travel insurance company (TINZ) who pocketed the lot despite the fact that we never left the country for the four months covered by the policy! Someone needs to call these companies out.

by Cantabrians | 24th Aug 20, 10:46pm 1598266006

I requested a refund (less an admin charge) from TINZ on basis they were not covering any risk - just like selling a car part way through an insurance period.
No refund but offered a credit note for full value valid to end 2021. Probably still useless!

by Rob Reid | 24th Aug 20, 8:28pm 1598257686

No word from my State Insurance yet.

by Henry_Tull | 24th Aug 20, 5:06pm 1598245581

Reserve Bank, going for the doctor.

https://youtu.be/o3M1eNgFZ4o
Specing out all the tools!