1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll: Labour would need Greens' support to govern; Support for Greens' climbs to 8%

1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll: Labour would need Greens' support to govern; Support for Greens' climbs to 8%

Labour would need the support of the Greens to form a government, according to the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll.

With 46% support, Labour would receive 59 seats - two short of the 61 required to govern.

The Greens would receive 11 seats, leaving only 40 to National and 10 to ACT.

Support for National sat at 31% - one percentage point lower than the last 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll, conducted between October 3 and 7.

National hasn't polled this badly since mid-May, when support for the party dropped to 29%. Simon Bridges was rolled as leader days later. In February, National polled at 46%. 

Coming back to the latest poll, support for the Greens was up two points to 8% - a relatively high level for the party. 

National spent much of the polling period (Saturday through to last night) campaigning against the Greens' wealth tax, saying Labour would go against its word and adopt it, if elected.

Support for ACT remained elevated at 8%.

NZ First was up a percentage point to 3%. The New Conservatives was also up a point to 2%, while TOP, Advance NZ and the Maori Party were at 1%.

The undecideds fell to 7%.

While support for Labour was down a percentage point, Jacinda Ardern was up five points in the preferred prime minister ranks to 55%. Judith Collins was down three points to 20%.

David Seymour was up a point to 3%, while Winston Peters remained at 1%.

According to poll results on the two referendums, euthanasia would be legalised, but recreational cannabis use wouldn't be. 

Support for the End of Life Choice Act was at 60%, versus opposition at 33%.

Support for the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill was up six points to 41%, but lagged opposition at 51%.

Here is a summary of the results:

Party:
Labour: 46% (down 1%)
National: 31% (down 1%)
ACT: 8% (no change)
Greens: 8% (up 2%)
NZ First: 3% (up 1%)
New Conservative: 2% (up 1%)
The Opportunities Party: 1% (down 1%)
Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
Māori party: 1% (up 1%)

Don’t know: 7% (down 1%)
Refused: 8% (up 3%)

Preferred PM:
Jacinda Ardern: 55% (up 5%)
Judith Collins: 20% (down 3%)
David Seymour: 3% (up 1%)
Winston Peters: 1% (no change)

Don’t know: 12% (down 2%)
Refused: 4% (up 1%)

1.57 million votes cast already

Record numbers of New Zealanders are continuing to vote early. 147,504 people cast their votes on Wednesday, brining the total number of votes cast up to 1.57 million.

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85 Comments

15
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Like the Anthem says - God save NZ

I was going to say we are doomed.
But then people & families can still maintain their freedom & values in spite of an onslaught of UN-aligned dismantling.

11
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Ah no, God defend actually, but it’s the same thing. Don’t know how many green contenders are counting themselves in but we are going to see an influx into parliament of zealots, previously unimaginable. A team of 5 million to be told sternly how they must live by eleven or so who know best. We had that, and more than enough of that, with the previous Labour government, but this lot will make them look like evangelical angels.

21
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Are you telling me the conservative lot don’t tell us how to live? Why can’t we smoke pot? Why can’t we get decent public transport in our biggest city? Why can’t I ride a bike without being scared of certain death?

A tax imposition that would necessitate the government collating, storing and auditing the private financial assets of citizens, with right of entry to do so, is beyond any measure ever contemplated let alone proposed by any government in NZ be it conservative or liberal. The last regime that carried that doctrine and system in the free world was Nazi Germany. Any partisan views of other government failures and foibles are of little consequence in comparison to an invasion of civil liberties of such magnitude. It is pure Orwellian, and it is not welcome in New Zealand, past, present and future.

13
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Excuse me as I'm not a tax expert, but what exactly is it about the Green's proposal that puts it more in line with Nazi Germany rather than the plethora of wealth taxes around the world (Argentina, France (discontinued), Spain, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and Italy)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax

16
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And why is wealth so untouchable while income is fair game? Why do those Nazis want to know how much I earn?

The government knows how much we earn it always has as you know but explain beyond your tax PAYE or like return, how exactly the government is to obtain details of the worth of your assets as proposed by the Greens in order to assess your tax liability. That is the sum of the value of all of property owned, bank accounts, equity investments,trusts,vehicle,boat,artwork,jewellery,heirlooms. How are those details to be stored and how are they to be audited each year so as to know the status and/or fate of said assets. In other words what exactly will the government be authorised to do, to go looking for assets. And bear in mind most of NZ already has a wealth tax on property in so much that your council rates are based on the value, the more it is worth the more is paid, and the government gets 15% GST take on that.

I'm not sure, but clearly it's a solvable problem as other countries already do it. What on earth prompted you to jump straight to the Nazis?

History. In order to seize assets they had to first locate them. The Reich Flight Tax provided the mechanism. There is a world of difference between a government gathering tax from income and that of a government that demands a declaration of each citizens worth by way of their assets. No we are not talking about seizure, but the set up of a government agency to administer these private details is unheralded in this country.

This comes across as extreme paranoia. I've mentioned before on here I'd much prefer inheritance or land taxes over this wealth tax, but I can't get on board with this kind of reaction, especially to something which it appears will almost certainly not happen this term.

Do you have a better solution to broaden the countries tax base, especially targeting the artificial 'asset rich, income poor' strategy for wealth accumulation? Or do you think things are hunky-dory just as they are?

"stop printing money" - how is that for a strategy ? would suppress asset price growth better than anything else ..

Ugh, misclicked report on this sorry. I'm going to have to make myself a script that covers that up.

Yea, we're not bringing back inheritance taxes any time soon. I can see a land tax being a useful get-out-of-jail-free card for Ardern who has already promised no wealth tax or CGT.

Ok fine you go ahead each year and happily and tell the government, how much your home is worth, how much your mortgage is, how much you have on term deposit, how much you hold in bonds and shares, what your car and boat is worth, how much you might have in a trust, how much you possess by way of jewellery, artworks, heirlooms and then account for and justify variations from the previous year. Not for me though.

I think you are being a little naive if you think any Western Government couldn't figure out most of that already. Certainly the council knows how much my house is worth, and any overseas shares that cost more than 50k are already reported and taxed based on an assumed return. The IRD knows about my UK house as I report the income in my income tax return, and pay the tax owing.

The issue of jewellery, artwork and antiques etc. are one of the main reasons I prefer a land or inheritance tax - much less bureaucracy.

Yes the council or anyone else can look up a property value but they can’t calculate your equity, how much you may have mortgaged. Yes they can assess investment holdings from income declared but they can’t know about an overdraft that might off set that. You may have a $90k Audi but they don’t know what you have borrowed against it, ditto for the 40ft yacht that you may co-own with three others. For the wealth tax to work you will need to supply the government with a statement of position. That is something a trading bank might need to know but pointedly, under the law at present they could not disclose that to any other party including the government unless under a warrant issued by a judge. The point is a wealth tax as proposed would legitimise the government acquiring information on citizens that they have not needed to have access to before. Sure Labour may reject it totally, but for me rather than the actual tax take involved, the proposition of the government holding dossiers on its citizens financial positions is abhorrent, and should never have been promoted by a parliamentary party in this good country.

Fair enough, I can understand that. A land tax is far easier as the council already has an estimate and the methodology could be quite similar to existing rates, and an inheritance tax is simpler as it only requires a one-time valuation rather than annual. I wouldn't necessarily oppose a straight-up wealth tax, but it's not my favourite and I understand your concerns.

I would suggest that jumping straight for the Nazi card does not strengthen your argument.

Because I could not find any more recent democratically elected government that has imposed such an incursion into confidentiality & civil liberties. Yes for example the Swiss have a wealth tax but it is assessed on a voluntary submission by the taxpayer(s) and because of that it leaks, substantially. From their pronouncements the Greens simply would not countenance that.

It's been interesting to see the resurgence of Nazism and it's alignment with the Green party. Just last week as I walked to work, I saw a tranche of white nationalists Sieg Heiling a Golriz Ghahraman election hoarding

it will be compulsory mung bean sprout salads in every restaurant, and you'd better learn how to ride a non gender specific bicycle.
The sky is falling.

surely can, you are not thus suggesting a connection in that the Nazis started out as the National Socialists?

It would help the credibility of your comments if you had actually read the Green's proposal re wealth tax before commenting.

But it is a good point about record keeping. Would it be much the same as the way companies keep records for gst and company tax purposes, including keeping track of depreciation?

You should read it too. Especially the part that IRD will be newly empowered to investigate any subject if they “suspect” that they may be hiding assets. That is right of entry and that is what is threatening to all NZrs’ privacy and confidentiality. Everybody seems to be overlooking this feature. Somehow, by some perverted twist on natural justice, it will be justified on the grounds that benefit fraud is investigated. Candidly, any person who could promote such an Orwellian concept shouldn’t be living in this good country, let alone be in parliament. Cannot work out why the Privacy Commissioner or whoever has not made a relevant statement.

Godwin's law in action

20
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Funny how so many scared of labour / greens which will probably be a fairly benign coalition. Act / National is much more scary IMO. About the only thing they would agree on is massive tax cuts but with no plan to pay for it. The tax cuts would go straight into housing and all we would get to show for it is a government loaded with debt.

Spot on Jimbo. People need to change the radio away from 89.4

my 2p is that Nationals attack on the Greens in the last week has strengthened the greens even more because your average left/labour voter can see what a disaster it could turn out if the Greens don't get in and Lab don't get the numbers which then allows a National/Act govt.

The minister for Oravida as our primeminister?

Most of her own party hate her so why would anyone want her as our PM.

If the Greens don't get in, then from the latest poll results Lab 46%, Nat 31%, Act 8%, Green 8% Also rans =7%. So if the greens drop to 4.9%, and all of that went to Nat/Act You'd end up with NAT+ACT=42%, Labour =46%, Wasted Votes the rest. Labour would rule alone with 62 seats, NAT+ ACT = 58 seats.

It would take a huge last minute swing for even the slightest chance of Nat getting in.

There's nothing benign about Labour's proposed hate speech law. Expect all that and more.

In 2017 the polls were a bit out compared to Election Day.
“With Labour rarely polling more than 30%, mostly in the mid to high 20s, there was scepticism about the Party’s ability to lead a coalition. National continued to poll in the 40s, usually at the higher end of that range”
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1177083X.2018.1443472

The last polls of the election were actually extremely accurate. I took a screen shot and compared the results on Election Day.

on polls against result, greens s drop and NZ first normally rises,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_g...
i still think NZ first are gone for good, but if the maori party picks up a electorate MP they could get two seats
the only thing left now is will jacinda keep her word on the wealth tax (i think she will as she will want a third term) and how long before judith and gerry get rolled

10
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Surely the wealth tax is just bargaining power for the greens. “Oh well, a wealth tax means a lot to us, but I guess we could give it up if you make me deputy and ...”

I would think there will be an agreement to "study" the idea, or for a gradual introduction after the end of next term . what may be agreed is a tax cut for lower earners, if interest rate forecasts are favorable to not tackling debt.

Good luck rolling Gerry.

10
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He looks like he'd roll pretty well, actually.

11
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Collins has been a great disappointment. Totally out of her depth in the debate last night. National is in deep trouble, and the rot starts at the very top. Rolling English was a huge, huge mistake. Integrity plus ability and a genuine centrist.

The Nats would be fools to roll Judith within 18 months. If there was an obvious new leader it would be Bridges, but he should bide his time. Luxon would need to get his feet under the desk. Muller has a lot to account for - I think Bridges would have recovered a bit of ground, especially since Goldsmith wouldn't have been Finance spokesperson.

The cannabis result may hurt the Greens, if the young voters who may have voted for change , don't bother voting. a high % of them would vote for the Greens. OTOH, they may not have voted nayway , or may have already voted.
Got to hand it to Winston, he knows how to campaign , still unlkely to get 5 % though .
National supporters who are saying they will vote ACT, may still vote National when faced with the ballot in the polling booth,
I Predict ,
Labour 47 %
Greens 7%
NZfirst 4 %
National 33%
Act 6%
all others 3 %, 1 electoral seat to the Maori party.

Having the marijuana referendum on the ballot is great for the Greens & Labour as a greater proportion of younger voters are mobilised and those 2 parties will benefit.

National voters are seeing no difference between the two parties so they will swing to labour to ensure they don't need the Greens.

That’s exactly what my always vote national parents have done...trouble is I doubt Labour will go solo if the greens make the cut

Maybe not, but it would still influence their bargaining power.

Labour needs the Greens like National needs ACT. Having a more extreme party allows Lab/Nats to hold the middle ground while appeasing those who are more left- or right-leaning.

You see it happen all the time. When there is something that needs to be said that it a bit more controversial, they can the supporting party to do it while not approving or denying it so they can pretend they either supported it or not as required later on.

20
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Looking forward to a progressive government of Labour and the Greens. This election may herald the increasing political awareness and action of younger generations, the growing consciousness of many in society of the road to collapse we are currently travelling on and the increasing irrelevance of purely growth driven policies.

Will be interesting to see if they can make some progress without the Winston handbrake. I think had it not been for Covid and Nationals implosion this election would be a lot different especially with no real progress in 3 years.

Very unlikely. Jacinda has campaigned constantly and consistently on stability. Policies are limited at best and downright weak at worst.

If you want transformation then Labour is not the jedi you are looking for.

Well she's the consummate politician, so of course she has. Winston put her in the driver's seat without a majority back in 2017. She's played the cards she was dealt cannily and cautiously as she's steadily built her political capital. Those of us with our ears open pre-2017 heard her talk about her hero: Peter Fraser. Transformational with a capital 'T' that man. If we get a Labour-Greens coalition on Saturday night, I predict that this election will be as significant a sea-change as 1984.

Very interesting point. You may well be right, I guess we shall see!

I think she will be off to bigger things regardless so this term is her chance.

That's what has got me. Stability means the status quo. The status quo for the last political term has been underperformance. She's saying keep us, we'll keep you safe, and we will get things done really slowly or not at all. And people buy into it. Todd Muller has a lot to answer for.

Good luck with that. Labour will win but is no longer a party of Labour principles. That is long gone.

"growing consciousness of many in society of the road to collapse we are currently travelling" Ok millennial

Sit down boomer

two days out and a lot of national list MP's (15 last time) will heading back to wellington to clean out the desk
and a few green new MP's will be getting ready to replace them, whom would of picked national mps getting replaced by green ones

They still get paid an extra 3 months salary though, which is $40,000 for a back bencher.

Retiring journo Colin James predicted exactly that share trader, last year. Demographics.

http://www.colinjames.co.nz/2019/05/19/ardern-transformation-now-or-a-pi...

Does it really matter?

The media have been heavily in behind Swarbrick, so it is safe to say she will get in Auckland Central and bring in a bunch of others with her.

Then are the Greens going to say no to Labour?

Green schools for all.

No sugary drinks in the school tuck shops, but seniors can buy edibles?

With the end result - a win for both age groups!

Oh no. Debt speculators that have doubled down could really be in trouble. Wealth tax on extra properties, and I predict more constraints on landlords.

Popcorn.

The wealth tax policy is there to capture the far left vote. It’s never going to become law.

Very similar to Winston at the last election promising to reduce immigration to 20,000 per year and shifting the Auckland container port to Whangarei.

the funny thing about that is he only needed to put the rail line in to carry the containers to auckland , the port would have done the rest , they are 1/2 owned by the port of tauranga so would have slowly invested to steal the shipping lines from auckland that did not want to go to tauranga.
all he had to do was look at the long game and supply the infrastructure and the business would have taken it up

Amazing to see Labour share continue to decline.

Interesting the PM is so poor in leaders debates, part is the terrible record she has to defend part could be, outside of scripted narrative and stage managed walking tours she just doesn't have the depth of awareness & skills.
Its still funny to think for her most important UN speech, James Shaw had to write it for her. Can't see Kelvin Davis doing that.

No wonder she will happily resign after a poor election result.

I think people (esp Mike Hosking) are missing the subtlety of Prime Minister Ardern around resignation,the comments are really directed at Judith;
"But she believed the electorate decided when a politician was finished."
"If you aren't able to bring your party into government, you need to reassess and think who is the best placed to do that," she told TVNZ."

Haha, nothing subtle about that at all. Totally direct.

True,but it went straight over Hoskings head :-)

If I had been PM for 3 years I might just be able to never work again, if I'm careful, especially if my partner worked.
The PM is mission out on a lot of her daughter's most formative years. She'll never get those back. Huge sacrifice.

It's $500K pa. I think she'll be fine.

Are you living in another dimension to us Henry..?

Matthew Hooton NZ Herald today;
The origins of the catastrophe to befall National tomorrow night lie in its attitude towards its 2017 ejection from power. Similar denial is already apparent towards tomorrow's disaster, creating the conditions for another calamity in 2023.
..National didn't think the 2017 result was fair. It made up a new "convention" that the party with the most votes should form a government.
...But Christchurch and Covid did happen, and the world will remain in turmoil for some years. Ardern has proven herself globally unparalleled at providing comfort, a sense of national unity and even some direction amidst crisis. This should not be scoffed at.

The comparisons will enrage everyone across the political spectrum, but Churchill did not personally plan the Battle of Britain or D-Day landings, nor Reagan personally design his economic strategy or military build-up. It irritates partisan opponents, but national leadership can be largely about words, hugs and personal connection. The citizens of other democracies are not wrong to wish for a leader with Ardern's communications talent.
...But, already, National MPs are telling themselves they have been cheated again. Had Bridges not been rolled, the May polls and approval ratings would have been mere aberrations. The public would have seen through Ardern by now, voted reluctantly for Bridges and the Key-English era would be restored. Looking ahead, they say, if the party just returns to the status quo ante, National already has 2023 in the bag.

This view will likely be the majority view of National MPs elected tomorrow. Among them is a growing faction of evangelical Christians, who are motivated less by economic policy than the American culture wars, and who have been dubbed the Taliban by more mainstream party members.

OMG! Hooton was the man behind Mullah rolling Bridges! wtf is he on about! Sounds like a massive bout of arse covering.

After his effort in rolling Bridges I'm surprised he's got any cred left to even speak in the media.

he is kind of right, they dont understand MMP and have never fostered relationships with minor parties but rather treated then as lackies.
and they have not rejuvenated the front bench, you have some people there that should have gone by now, that used to be the criticism of labour and it took them a few elections losses to get rid of the hanger on.
its like the all blacks sometimes star players need to be moved with a gentle nudge to let new stars blossom
something the greens understand, but NZ first star player will not let happen

We're in a country where over 48% professed no religion, which the critical mass for full secularism. Which NZ pretty much is , anyway. This makes christians somewhat of a minority (37%). I can't see US-style evangelical politics ever have a place here now. Good.

A friend, usually a staunch national supporter is voting labour in the hope it will give Labour an absolute majority and keep the greens out.

Ardern has already said they will bring the Greens into the fold, and frustrated Labourites are voting Greens to ensure Labour gets dragged to the left and delivers something other than tepid tax increases and nothing more. The whole thing falls to pieces when you don't vote for who bests actually represents your interests, but MMP encourages second-guessing coalition negotiations and other factors voters can't possibly know, nor things MPs are apparently that hung up on being accountable for (like actually delivering on campaign promises).

Meanwhile the labour supporters are voting green. bahhahahaha

As much as I'd like to say - Suck it hard National, it's not a good thing for the country that they are so dysfuntional atm.

National deserve another 3 years in the wilderness, time to cull some deadwood and to get their act together.

12
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RIP Jacinda the Radical, replaced by Jacinda the Steady Hand on the Tiller, who took precisely one term to abandon talk of transformation and become a much more appealing version of Bill English, who ironically enough beat her in 2017. Let's not forget that this will be the first election Ardern will actually win as Labour leader, and what is she promising? No real reform, no accounting for the promises she made and didn't deliver, no explanation why non-performers have been promoted and no inclination explain why NZ is going backwards in all the ways she angrily painted as being shameful in 2017. At some point, the worm will turn. There was a point when the media didn't love John Key anymore. There was a point where every story on RNZ was about the housing crisis, or living costs, or poverty. That doesn't happen anymore, but some day people will get tired of being gaslighted by Ardern as she tells them not expect her to do the things she said would do.

I reached that point about twelve months after making the mistake of voting for her.

Correction needed - this will be the second election where Jacinda Ardern puts together a grouping that controls more that 60 seats. That is what "winning" is, not the outdated FPP concept of winning that you are thinking about.

Well, I'm sick of being patronised and mollycoddled by the lefty Labour govt -
what have they delivered? nothing...!

Frankly. I think they were saved by crises and excused from accountability of poor performance... where incompetence is rewarded and accountability is flouted

Likewise the Greens move on 'wealth tax' and 'funding private schools' has been equally disingenuous, and sadly I think they have strayed off their reservation -
Despite the fact I actually like the idea of doing things more sustainably and protecting nature...

The rights are either extremists, ACT or New Conservtives, or simply Lost without a rudder i.e. National

The whole election is a debacle of blame, non accountability and shortsightedness...

What is it you're sick of being patronised and mollycoddled about by the govt UO?

I do not understand why you call this Labour lot 'lefties'. They are just a bunch of neolibs with soft voices and continue to let ordinary people down to accept their poverty.

yep looks like red and green government. I'm off to buy some sandals at lunchtime..do you still wear socks with those..then off to try find one of those government jobs.

NZF to the rescue.