A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; a very low floating rate, affordable car insurance?, returning flock, higher milk price, swaps rise, NZD higher, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; a very low floating rate, affordable car insurance?, returning flock, higher milk price, swaps rise, NZD higher, & more
ID 22702269 © Daniaphoto | Dreamstime.com

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank cut its floating rate today to the lowest of any bank.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Wairarapa Building Society (WBS) trimmed term deposit rates today.

AFFORDABLE CAR INSURANCE
A new car insurance product is being trialed by charitable organisation Good Shepherd NZ and insurance company Vero. People accessing a Good Shepherd NZ Good Loan (funded by BNZ and/or Kiwibank) to finance a car will now have the opportunity to purchase Vero’s Drive Car Insurance, a low-cost, comprehensive car insurance product. Premiums will be fixed at just $8 per week and customers won’t pay any excess on their first claim.

RETURNING FLOCK
New survey of 15,000 expat Kiwis suggests about half of them plan to return to New Zealand, with half of those planning to arrive within the next two years. That is a stream of about +150 per month.

THINKING IT WILL BE MORE
ANZ have revised their 2020/2021 milk payout forecast to $6.70/kgMS which is a +20c lift, and making their estimate quite similar to other analysts.

BIG LOSS
The Australian Taxation Office is facing a loss of more than AU$1.15 bln plus it is facing potential class action lawsuits after it lost one of its most important and controversial tax cases involving GST and gold.

GOLD PRICE HIGHER
The price of gold has moved higher in Asian trade, now up to US$1955/oz and +US$5 higher than where it closed last week.

EQUITIES UPDATE
The NZX50 Capital Index has opened the week very strongly, up +1.8% in late trade. The ASX200 is up +1.5% in early afternoon trade. Shanghai has opened up almost +1.0%, Hong Kong is up +1.1% and Tokyo is up almost 2.0% all in very early trade. The futures trade for the S&P500 suggests Wall Street will open tomorrow up +1.4%. Markets are cheering the US election result.

SWAPS AND BOND YIELDS FIRMER
Short end rates rose from virtually zero to 0.04% on Friday; long end rates rose too. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged today at 0.29%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +1 bp to 0.78%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +3 bps at 3.25%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is up +5 bps at just under 0.60% and above the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.58% (+5 bps). And the US Govt ten year is back up +4 bps to 0.82% in the US election shadow.

NZD UP
The Kiwi dollar is firmer to start the week and now up to 68.1 USc and its highest against the USD since March 2019. Against the Aussie we are holding at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are a little softer at 57.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 has risen to 70.7.

BITCOIN SETTLES LOWER
Bitcoin is down -2.1% from this time Friday to US$15,510. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs »

The 'US$' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'AU$' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'TWI' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The '¥en' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The '¥uan' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The '€uro' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'GBP' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
The 'Bitcoin' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

66 Comments

Of 15,000 kiwis surveyed 50% say they plan to return home within 2 years. Extrapolate that over the million kiwis who live abroad and we have a problem.

I'm not sure you can deduce much. It can be looked at in a couple of different ways - simply replacing other 'immigrants' who are now restricted being one.

That's a serious revision of your original post bw.

This survey is so wacky.
Many will say they have that intent and do nothing of the sort. At best some will come and then there will be a steady drop off in numbers. Plus there will be others who leave NZ for an OE!!!! Was this surveyed? Nope.
It's complete and utter bull crarp.

Who knows where I can find the survey? I want to see the methodology. If it was done voluntarily then there is likely to be bias among the survey participants to return home.
Also, one thing to want to return, another to find employment especially if there is a lot of competition.

Depends how representative the research is. I'm on the KEA mailing list, but I never look at the emails. Too much 'proud to be Kiwi' hooplah for me. I could make the assumption that many of those who did the survey follow the emails more and have a greater yearning to be in NZ. Therefore, the findings could be biased to some extent. Also, the data and the research design is not publically available, therefore you cannot look at it criitically.

I agree but even if you consider a best case scenario it still looks alarming.

Alarming? Why are Kiwis who have overseas experience, returning to NZ a problem (like you said in your first post) or "alarming" ?

Maybe because our infrastructure and housing is already past breaking point?

Where are they going to live?

Yvil doesn't care, he's just licking his lips at being able to increase his rents.

Just saw this now, shares some of the issues I raise above.
Sounds like bollocks to me.

No... you see... overcrowding is GREAT for business.

Great for banks and bureaucrats, more like.

yes. last I checked banks and bureaucrats were the economy

Don't forget landlords and RE agents!
We have got a really innovative and productive economy!!!

And the rentier scum

if its the highly skilled and experienced doctors, business managers, researchers, technicians, skilled tradespeople - no problem -- simply dont renew a whole load of temp work permits and the country will be far far better for it - no issues with Kiwis having to learn the language/ culture / arriving with no family supports so far easier for them to adapt than migrants be it temporary or permanent migrants - a bigger issue is that with 200000 unemployed - we still want to import seasonal labour -- instead of ensuring these 200,000 start working - nothing like hard work to incentivize people to look for better opportunities!

Good luck with getting Kiwis to pick/prune for $25 / hour, let alone $18.90 minimum wage. It's all too much "hard work". Hence the reason for needing the migrant RSE's.

Someone made a comment in the wee hours the other night to the effect:

"We did a survey of those opposed to Trump and asked - "Is it more important that we get a fair and honest election or that Trump is ousted in any way possible?"

Something like 60% responded that Removing Trump! was the most important thing.
Of course, 100% should have wanted an honest election, but that ties in with your link very well.

14
up

Someone asked "Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?"

Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England, wrote this magnificent response:

"A few things spring to mind.

Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.

I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.

But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.

And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It’s all surface.

Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.

Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.

And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.

Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.

He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.

He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.

And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.

That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.

There are unspoken rules to this stuff - the Queensberry rules of basic decency - and he breaks them all. He punches downwards - which a gentleman should, would, could never do - and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless - and he kicks them when they are down.

So the fact that a significant minority - perhaps a third - of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think 'Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy’ is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:
* Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
* You don't need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.

This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.

After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.

God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.

He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.

In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws - he would make a Trump.

And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:

'My God… what… have… I… created?

If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set."

Nate just another idiot letting his emotions and prejudices run away with him

An idiot? Puts a sentence together with a little more skill than Trump IMO.

excellent post ... trump does have raison d'etre though. Let someone else give that message, I won't miss trump in the slightest.

Haha, yep a wonderful piece. If Trump read it, he wouldn't understand it at all

Yes it is amusing.
However it is completely one sided and does not poke fun at wokeness, cancel culture, victimhood or the danger of progressive politics etc.
Having said that. It is amusing and in a one sided way, quite true.

Yep those things are really as bad as Trump's. Really, he is a reaction to all the woke nonsense, in part.

either I missed a /sarc somewhere - OR - quite refreshing to hear this from a Green party voter.

Best line:

His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

I never watched The Apprentice - not once - and never read his books, nor read much about him in MSM. So the man and his character was completely unknown to me once elected. All I really knew was that he was the butt of jokes, such as the Simpsons episode that depicted him as President.

And then I read somewhere, that he entered the Rep primary to appear in the debates, as he thought the exposure would raise the falling ratings of the TV Show.

The whole thing has been bizarre - totally bizarre.

Clever piece.
But he was/is a kind of David against the Goliath of Large Corporates, Media machine, Political class, Globalism etc - I mean you can’t fight those with wit & charm, you need a wrecking ball.

Funny to see all these incentives to get finance on cars coming in here - saw it in the UK after GFC, its the next best thing to driving up debt after housing as (usually) its the second most costly purchase after a house everyone does.
I was amazed at the amount of friends in UK with brand new Audis or BMWs on their driveways when I last visited, all financed or on 2 / 3 year lease contracts.
when the young'uns can afford a house - let them have a car on tick

My interesting things that happened today.

Parler became the most downloaded app on the net, thousands of people signing up every hour, site is struggling to cope. Is this the end of twitter f/b censorship?

1600 Africans arrived in Spain on Sunday looking for a better life, none will stay in Spain so the Spanish authorities are not too worried, no jobs in Spain so they head north, when will Europe explode?

Consumer loans USA, looking forward to Biden fixing this

https://themarketear.com/posts/cNUzmN_Nzs/image/0

I get the feeling Twitter will be the sacrificial lamb here. Whether that be intentional or not, I do not know, but their conduct and policing over the last seven days has been diabolical. The thing is, their censorship has been so one sided it has made a difficult situation so much more difficult.

If last Wednesday you tweeted "(Biden or Trump) has won the election", which one do you think got censored?

10
up

The one that was false?

They both are until early December?
" The US has no official institution to call an election soon after the polls have closed...That won’t come until the Electoral College gathers in December "
(Andrew's link above)

Yes, but Andrew’s link above , if it’s the ZH one you’re talking about, is nonsense. Actual lies - but they can never be disproven, right, because the whole of the mainstream media is in on the con? DT is a cult, and like any cult it must absorb an ever-expanding number of absurdities.

Trumps a bit weird but lots of Americans love him, it's their battle not ours, if they choose Biden fair and square it's all good, if someone gets caught with their hand in the jar it's not, even if there is doubt it's not Okay.

This could lead to unpleasant outcomes and we are allies, we rely on the USA to keep the peace, without that dominance there's going to be a power vacuum and I for one don't need that. I won't let emotion cloud my judgement.

that's what we are fighting over, who gets to decide which is false

I normally don't respond to idiocy, but its confusing when its the guy who runs this website.

Thank you for clarifying my point Andrew.

David: Commercial airlines have right wings on them. I'm guessing its boat, car and rail moving forwards?

It's not confusing for most people. Just those of you on Parler, Infowars and Breitbart.

divisive and condescending, Ninga

Infowars and breitbart aren't divisive? Seems like what is good for the goose isn't good for the gander andrewJ.

Masher, do you think that a privately-owned media company is obliged to publish whatever the President wants them to?
Even if they believe it to be false, and potentially inflammatory?
Would you apply the same standard to, say, the NZ Herald... or our hosts here?

you answered you own question with the word 'believe'

11
up

It takes very special math to 'believe' that 71,188,487 is more than 75,550,480. Or that 214 is more than 279. Or that the US's non-response to coronavirus means they are "rounding the turn", or that all those 'believers' think their tinfoil hats work some magic. Parler seems a suitable corner for them to inhabit.

And someone got to 270 last Wednesday?

Read the whole conversation David. You've completely missed the point.

No he didn't miss your point. You just don't like David's response. Or indeed anyone else's response who hasn't drunk your koolaid.

DC did a bit because last Wednesday both statements "Biden won / Trump won" were false (there was no majority yet). Still a great reply from DC, which stands true now (just not last Wednesday, which was Masher's original post)

I think we all know Trump was trying to amplify an escalating situation in the states for his own benefit, from what I saw the Democrats were trying to calm it down. Trump had decided the election was rigged before it even began, then he decided he had won when everyone else could plainly see it was close at best. Once the voting started he should have just shut his big mouth and acted like an adult.

"acted like an adult" this thread is turning into comedy gold

"It takes very special math to 'believe' that 71,188,487 is more than 75,550,480. " - but no one does..
What is more to the point it is entirely irrelevant in the context of a US presidential election. That you think it is relevant just shows up your bias I am afraid... and I am definitely not a Trump supporter.

How about censoring neither or both until someone got to 270?

That didn't occur.

Yes, it has been pointed out that Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft and Google are all in danger of finding out the meaning of Stalin's phrase "useful idiot". Once their "friends" no longer need them, then they are fair game. What a tempting pile of riches they have amassed, too, just too tempting by far.

This exchange rate tear we are on at the moment will be punishing our exporters. Time to print more money so we can race to the bottom faster!

Ocr to -1%, pronto!!!!!!

New York pre-market trading
S&P500 up 59
Nasdaq up 305
Dow Jones up 392

Parler is a US-based microblogging and social networking service launched in August 2018. Parler has a significant user base of Trump supporters, conservatives, and Saudi nationalists. Posts on the website often contain far-right content, antisemitism, and conspiracy theories The site has been described as an alternative to Twitter, and is popular among people who have been banned from mainstream social networks or oppose their moderation policies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parler

Well i follow my farming mates on it and Wiki has lost credibility with most of us.

Really? I find wikipedia spot on for almost any topic. You know anyone can change it if something is factually incorrect, and there are references at the bottom of the page.

The "anyone can change it if something is factually incorrect" is the whole reason wikipedia isn't a reliable source. Try referencing wikipedia at university and see how your marks come in..

Reckon they should take the keys to Air Force One 747 off Trump now

he has some good perks coming his way, free secret service and travel, and the best is he gets to be buried at arlington with full honors
https://www.ntu.org/foundation/tax-page/pensions-and-perks-for-former-pr...

When?

good to see us finally moving on the cook island bubble, if we can get that and nuie up and running it will be a good test for other bubbles, in saying that talking to a kathmadu staff today and he said stock is flying out the door as kiwis are holidaying at home
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-announces-pro...