A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; population growing slower, few tractors sold, high DTI borrowing takes off, swaps stable, NZD mixed, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Christian Savings raised a couple of rates. First Credit Union did too.

GETTING CLOSE?
The Westpac Group CEO and Chairman both met with PM Ardern, Finance Minister Robertson and RBNZ Governor Orr recently in Wellington, presumably to brief them on the potential sale or listing of Westpac NZ. No details of these discussions have been released.

POPULATION GROWTH SLOWING
New Zealand's population rose just +1.0% to 5,112,200 as at March 2021. That compares with a rise of +2.2% in the year to March 2019 and +1.7% in the year to March 2018. The average annual rise over the past ten years has been +1.6%. The current +1% gain rate is the smallest since the GFC outflow years running up to the end of 2013.

NATURAL CHANGES SLOWING
Our birth rate is dropping fast, now down to an all-time (modern) low of 11.2 per 1000 population. The death rate blipped up slightly in the same year to March 2021 to 6.45 per 1000 population, and that is slightly (and not significantly) off its record low recorded as at December 2020. (For perspective, the Australian birth rate is 12.4 and their death rate is 6.67 per 1000 population.)

DRYING RIGHT UP
There were only 13 new tractors registered in April 2021 - and that was even less than the 14 registered in the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020. In March it was only 23. The average new tractors registered in an April month in the five years 2014 to 2019 was 177. Farmers were just not investing in this type of equipment recently. In fact in the year to April, only 2261 were registered, the lowest since the GFC's 2011. In both 2018 and 2019 well more than 3000 were renewed. Of course, it might be supply-chain issues holding them back in 2021, but if so, this is a very dramatic shutoff from being able to renew a key piece of production equipment.

HIGH DTI BORROWING TAKES OFF
The RBNZ released its March borrowing DTI data today and that showed everyone piled in borrowing in the month. A record 31,242 borrowers were active in the month, and that was also a record for first home buyers, for owner occupiers, and for households borrowing for residential investment. The rise was across all three types of borrowers. First home buyers are borrowing heavily at 5+ DTI, now 53% of all new FHB borrowing and a new record. That is up from 40% a year ago and 33% two years ago. Owner occupiers aren't far behind with 45.4% of them borrowing with a DTI of 5 or more, also a record high. A year ago that was 34%; two years ago it was 29%.

SURPRISE RECEIVERSHIP
The Fistonich family company that owns Villa Maria Wines has been placed into receivership. Buyers for the Villa Maria business are circling.

GOLD FIRMS AGAIN
The gold price is now at US$1870 and up another +US$20 from this time on yesterday in early Asian trading. And this is +US$4 higher than the New York close earlier today at US$1866; London closed at US$1854/oz.

EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P500 ended down -0.3% on Wall Street earlier today. The NZX50 Capital Index is down a minor -0.1% in late trade today, while the ASX200 is up +0.6% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up a very strong +2.1% and Hong Kong is following, up +1.2%. Shanghai has opened flat.

SWAPS & BONDS LITTLE CHANGED
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are significant movements today, we will note them here later when we get the data. The 90 day bank bill rate is down another -1 bp at 0.34%. That is a -4 bps fall in a week. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is up +2 bps since this time yesterday at 1.73%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 3.16%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is up +1 bp at 1.91% but still above the 1.90% in the earlier RBNZ fix (+1 bp). The US Govt ten year is up +3 bps at 1.65%.

NZ DOLLAR MIXED
The Kiwi dollar has firmed today slightly and is now at 72.4 USc. Against the Aussie we have dipped since this time yesterday to 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is holding at 73.8.

BITCOIN'S VOLATILITY CONTINUES
The bitcoin price is now at US$44,835 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility remains very high at +/- 4.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep ahead of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».