Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today. The article is updated with details of the large retreats in wholesale swap rates that happened in the last two hours of trading.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has lifte all its home loan rates by +10 to +15 bps. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ has lifted all its term deposit rates by +10 to +20 bps. More here.
PREPARE FOR LOCKDOWN
We have a community COVID case in Auckland. It's probably delta given that almost all MIQ cases have been. Cabinet is meeting. There will be an official announcement at 6pm.
AUCTIONS STILL WORK
All the talk of interest rate rises is not having much effect in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms in Auckland. The latest auction clearance rates ranged from 54% in Manukau to 68% in Franklin.
NERVOUS ANTICIPATION I
Tomorrow, the RBNZ will release its Monetary Policy Statement at 2pm along with its OCR decision. At 3pm there will be a press conference, which we will have a live feed for. Meanwhile, the breaking Auckland community COVID case may well have an impact on tomorrow's OCR review decisions.
COST CONTAINMENT TO BE ACTIONED?
The carbon price is almost touching $50 today (actually $49.75 spot). That is bumping up to the upper limits of the price control rules currently in operation in the NZ secondary carbon market. When auction prices exceed $50 there should be a release from the "cost containment reserve".
NERVOUS ANTICIPATION II
Before the RBNZ show, there will be another dairy auction. Indications from the NZX Futures market suggests it will be another downer with WMP possibly off -2.5% and SMP flat. Butter may fall more than -5% from the last auction.
OLDER ... AND STALER?
Population data as at June 2021 was released today revealing we had a 5,112,600 resident population. The growth in the past year was +32,400 the smallest rise since 2012 and driven by births not migrants. The median age jumped to 37.7 years, also its fastest rise since 2012. The proportion of the population under 25 fell -0.6% in the past year. The proportion over 50 rose +0.4%. But people aged between 30 and 40 rose in this proportion by +0.2%.
PRESSURE IN AUSTRALIA WIDENS, NZ NOW TOO
There were another 454 new community cases in NSW today with another 323 not assigned to known clusters, so they are still not getting on top of their outbreak. It has spread into regional NSW extensively. Victoria is reporting another 24 new cases today, a growing number and their lockdown is extended for another two weeks, this time with a curfew. Queensland is reporting 2 new cases. NT has cases now. Overall in Australia, more than 26% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 22% have now had one shot so far. There were no new cases in New Zealand at the border, but one in the community. New Zealand reports 23% of its eligible population having been fully vaccinated with a further 16% having had one jab so far.
GOLD FIRMER
Compared to where we were at the close of trade in New York on yesterday, the gold price is up at US$1786 in early Asian trade and a rise of +US$5 from then.
EQUITIES MIXED, NZX GAINS EVAPORATE
The NZX50 Capital Index is flat in late trade and giving up good earlier gains. The ASX200 is down -0.8% however in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2%, but Hong Hong has opened down -0.3%, and Shanghai has also opened down -0.3%. The S&P500 ended up +0.3% on Wall Street in a rising trend out of negative territory earlier today.
SWAP & BONDS RATES SWIRL IN UNCERTAINTY
Update: We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are sharply lower at the close. The one year was up +4 bps before the news, but is now down -11 bps. Ditto other durations. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 0.67% before the news broke. Now it is 0.64%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -1 bp at 1.16%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 2.91%. But the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -10 bps to 1.63% and well below the earlier RBNZ fix of 1.74% (+4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.26% and easing slightly.
NZ DOLLAR SOFTENS SHARPLY
The Kiwi dollar is now at 69.6 USc and down -80 bps post the outbreak news. Against the Aussie we are soft at 95.3 AUc and down -40 bps. Against the euro we are lower by -50 bps at 59.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now sharply lower at 72.7, down by -70 bps but still within the ten month 72-74 range.
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BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$46,424 and down -2.4% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.
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32 Comments
You’re right; that’s why, as I suggest, they won’t raise rates.
There’s a meta-problem here, that extraordinary price rises eventually affect bank stability, and CPI, and employment; and even the question of whether employment matters in an economy where everyone is either a landlord or a beneficiary. But that is not their mandate, so , I guess.
It bizarre (morally lacking?) that property speculators want to benefit from the arrival of a COVID case, that could lead to community transmission, potentially kill a lot of people, so that the OCR can stay lower, so that they can selfishly make more money from an overpriced asset market that is causing financial and society instability.
He wasn't, his wife was. He had booked in, by the sounds of it.
The QUESTION(s) we ALL want answered are actually:
How the hell did he get it?? And how long is that chain? And how many other people have contracted it?
Level 4 for at least 3 days for everyone is smart, just look at Aus when you hesitate...
Aussie crypto influencer caught scamming his own followers. Had a social media reputation as one of the 'good guys'. Rumors circulating of underworld being involved in his businesses. Media like AFR and ABC already on the case.
An Australian crypto-currency celebrity is being pursued in court for almost half a million dollars by an investor who alleges he has received no goods or services in return.
New Zealand investor Ziv Himmelfarb has launched legal action against Nugget's News founder Alex Saunders, seeking $479,270.16 in losses and damages for money he allegedly loaned him and invested in a yet-to-be realised cryptocurrency project.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-12/crypto-alex-saunders-bitcoin-nug…
THE NUG RUG!!!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUg7f74WbzjwxZKyVmuFJcg
You watch any of this dudes vids? good tunes and associated trading knowledge :)
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