Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the long-anticipated rise of robots and AI may now be happening, and will bring a new surge in productivity.
But first up we should note that the Australian petrol retailer and distributor Ampol (ex-Caltex in Australia) is apparently in "advanced talks" to take over our listed Z Energy (ZEL, #22). Z Energy also operate the Caltex brand in New Zealand. If this deal proceeds, it will take $1.6 bln out of the NZX50, but the local shareholders will end up with these funds of course, including many KiwiSaver funds.
And in different energy news, Swedish carmaker Volvo (owned by China's Geely Motors) has taken delivery of fossil-fuel-free steel and plans to make cars from it, demonstration ones to start. The iron ore mines and the steel making process was all powered by green hydrogen (hydrogen produced from hydro electricity).
The annual Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers is to be another 'virtual' event in 2021, mirroring its 2020 edition. This year the focus will be on 'the uneven economy" and will start on Saturday, NZT.
One aspect may well be about how jobs aren't quite bouncing back as anticipated. This may well be because the pandemic has allowed job-replacing robots to gain ascendency. There was a lot of talk about such a move after the GFC, but it is now apparent firms did the work without rolling this technology out at scale. But that work has now been done and scale rollouts are now happening. It is expected to usher in a 'game-changing' burst of productivity - more output for the same or less labour inputs.
AI will also be a core part of the new jobs landscape, and sure to bring to the surface many concerns.
As the US approaches the heart of their summer holiday season, the American currency is on the rise - and many say it is now above 'fair value'. But its overvaluation is not extreme by historical standards. That will probably not prevent the greenback from rising a bit further over the next 6-12 months however. When US investors return after their Labor Day weekend, caution is likely to rule their emotions and a risk-off tone persist against the economic backdrop of slowing US momentum and reversing Chinese momentum.
More immediately, the Canadians got their expected strong bounce in retail sales in June, with them up +4.2% as lockdown restrictions were eased in the month. From a pre-pandemic June 2019 base, the latest data is almost +10% higher, so they go into an election period there with a positive economic background. Canada doesn't have the inequality pressures its southern neighbour has. (Gini = 0.33.)
Not like China. China has grown to be one of the most unequal large economies with a vast gap between the haves and have-nots. Their Gini index is 0.39. The US is 0.41 while New Zealand is 0.36. The higher these coefficients, the more unequal they are. Norway is 0.27, and Sweden 0.29.
Now, an article has appeared in a prominent Chinese news outlet calling for wealth taxes and income redistribution to address the Chinese problem. Given that Chairman Xi himself is a princeling of the original CCP hierarchy, this would ordinarily be a brave and dangerous move. But it was probably sanctioned from the top, indicating Beijing has picked up the social signals that this is a stress point in modern China. (It may also have advantages in culling Xi rivals.) And it ties into the current campaign to bring under control a tech industry that has been operating cavalierly. "Common Prosperity" is the new Chinese catch-phrase.
Meanwhile, their central bank left their Loan Prime Rate on hold for a 16th straight month today at 3.85%. But with the Chinese economy losing momentum, it won’t be long before the PBOC is guiding rates lower. Even so, another round of large-scale credit-led stimulus doesn’t appear to be on the cards for now. Another reserve ratio cut looks more likely to be their next action.
Taiwanese export orders are still growing strongly in July, up +20% on a year ago and +37% higher than for July 2019. (Buyers completely discount the risks of a Chinese invasion or takeover.)
The turmoil at Chinese container ports is also causing big problems at destinations. Buyers are bringing forward orders exacerbating the problems. For example, at the two large Los Angeles ports, which handle about a third of all US seaborne imports, nearly 40 ships are waiting to berth, almost as many as the last stressful logistics period in February. Normally no ships are waiting to load or unload.
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There were another 830 new community Covid-19 cases in NSW yesterday with another 693 not assigned to known clusters, so they are still out of control and worse. Their lockdown has been extended. They are now under curfew too. Victoria is reporting another 65 new cases yesterday, so it is starting to surge there too and their lockdown is extended for another two weeks, also with a curfew. Queensland is reporting zero new cases in a bright spot. ACT has 19 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 30% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 21% have now had one shot so far. In New Zealand, 23% have now had two shots and another 18% their first.
The selfishness of the Aussie lockdown protests, the ignorance, and the spreading of the virus in large groups is making containment of the outbreak there very difficult, while vaccination rates remain well below the 90% required. Those mainly at risk are the young, especially children. All this stems from a weak and slow initial response from the NSW state authorities who responded to short-term economic claims over proper public health measures. The situation may not be reversible now no matter what we desire. NSW now has more than 10,000 locally acquired cases, Victoria has 440, Queensland 39, ACT has 121. New Zealand now has 72 active cases and all ours have been transferred to managed isolation.
The UST 10yr yield ended last week at 1.26%. The US 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at +103 bps. Their 1-5 curve is a little flatter at under +72 bps, and their 3m-10 year curve is also marginally flatter at +121 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.07% and -1 bp softer. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.87% and unchanged. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.60% and also unchanged.
The price of gold is little-changed from this time Saturday, and now at US$1781/oz and down -US$1.
Oil prices are still slipping, so in the US they are now just over US$61.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$64.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today unchanged 68.3 USc and holding its lower level. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 95.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also very slightly firmer at 58.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 72 and right at the bottom the 72-74 range of the past ten months.
The bitcoin price has pretty much held at its new higher level of US$48,669 which is up just +0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1.7%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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109 Comments
Can anyone give me a rational explanation for elimination at this point in time? All of the over 65's should have had been fully vaccinated this is where 80% of hospitalizations and deaths are. Everyone over 50 should have been vaccinated by this time next month. This is where 95% of deaths and hospitalizations are. Why not just suppress the virus until this point in time with level 2.8 restrictions? Alot like Australia's strategy.
I just don't see the point of putting Auckland though 4 to 6 week slog at level 4 at this point in time?
Because our health system is already creaking under the strain?
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/23-08-2021/if-you-listen-closely-enoug…
And at level 2.8 (?) Delta would rip through the country.
everyone is going to end up paying higher taxes anyway. Lockdowns are'nt cheap. Difference is it will be the younger generation paying for the majority of it. The elimination strategy is not a long term solution the country will slowly wither away pursuing this ideology, if they come out and gave us the long term strategy and said as soon as vaccination rates are up this is the way forward then maybe people would be a bit more understanding.
Totally agree that lockdowns are not a long term strategy.
But we haven't got a high enough vaccination level to not do them. Hopefully in another month or so that will be different and this'll be the last lockdown. Hipkins has already hinted that the lockdown strategy may be changed
Government has borrowed and spent this money. Instead of doing all their pet vanity projects, a forward thinking government would have focussed on setting up for an uncertain future.
Instead, Labour have frittered away the money, their early advantages, and with it our safety and freedoms. I support the Level 4 lockdown - but only because we were too useless to prioritise vaccinations. The suggestion that we didn't need vaccinations because we had no COVID was One Big Lie from Cindy and her incompetent Ministers.
$20bn would have bought a lot of ventilators, nurses (if we allowed resource to be imported), hospital investment, vaccine ramp ups, saliva testing, and a health department with some smarts. Even if they had allowed crane operators, our port troubles wouldn't be as critical. But as CABINET (yes - cabinet control freaks had to sign off 4-5 crane operators) have been signing off importing crane crews, and only allowed POAL half their needs, they are partly to blame for the slow recovery too. (POAL made bad decisions at the start of COVID, but their recovery is being hampered by Govt)
Instead, we've mucked about with bike bridges, school lunches (school during a pandemic?), gender legislation, banning more stuff, cancelling needed transport routes for unused public/cycle transport, importing coal, and self congratulatory back patting...........
Totally agree. They rested on their smug laurels because they only narrowly avoided a catastrophe last year by shear luck more than good planning. They should have been investing $millions in new ICU equipment and vaccination campaigns and not Three Waters BS propaganda in the past year. The DHB consolidation is also like restructuring the armed forces during Dunkirk. What planet does Andrew Little live on??
when are you Boomers going to get it
we already spend way way way too much keeping people alive .. in a world stuffed with overpopulation and resource pressure
Just because its possible doesnt make it a good idea
Putting more into health is just stealing more from your grandkids
Health should be on kids, not decrepids
...and continued to pile in the immigrants increasing the strain.
'A Labour government would start building a new hospital in the centre of Dunedin in its first term, the party says. ...Ms Ardern was confident her party could build the hospital faster than the National Party's seven to 10 year estimation.'
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/338008/ardern-raises-stakes-over-d…
But 200,000,000 confirmed cases (which will likely be an underestimate) in 18 months (with restrictions around the world), and delta is much more infectious. I stand by my statement. If we went to level 2.8 we'd be having thousands of cases a day in a few weeks and tens of thousands not long after. The health system wouldn't cope.
I respectfully disagree. I am owed an explanation for the onerous restrictions placed on me & my livelihood being destroyed. As are other New-Zealanders. My point is that by this time next month the at risk population will be vaccinated, why pursue elimination past this point?
We gain very little by vaccinating 70% of the population as vaccinated people can still get & transmit the virus relatively effectively. The vaccine is not sterialising. There is no herd immunity.
The best we can so is vaccinate the at risk population.
Correct! The moment Scott Morrison brushed off our Prime Minister and got travel started NZ was thus greatly more open to the prospect of Delta and that exposed the weakness of the isolation policy as NZ’s vaccination rate was not sufficient to meet the risk. But rather than admit that and compromise their “political popularity” the government buckled and opened the bubble. There has been a lot of mealy mouthed excuses ever forthcoming but the fact is the larger percentage of NZrs had not had the opportunity of vaccination as protection. That does require explaining, yes it certainly does.
The at risk population will be vaccinated?! Not true. There’s tens of thousands of children who are at risk due to a plethora of underlying conditions that can’t currently be vaccinated. Until they have the opportunity to be vaccinated your attitude would be throwing them all under a bus.
"We gain very little by vaccinating 70% of the population as vaccinated people can still get & transmit the virus relatively effectively"
Yes they can. But at much lower rates of transmission and dramatically better outcomes if infected while vaccinated. Much like others, you seem to be missing out the key bits about why vaccination is so important.
You do realise that Covid comes with some pretty major long term side effects in some cases that we're only just starting to wrap our heads around?
On behalf of younger Kiwis, bearing the brunt of the financial mismanagement of the economy during this period, and who aren't particular enamoured with the idea of being left with serious long-term side effects of a disease because we had to vaccinate the boomers first, the idea of being thrown to the wolves early so you can feel better about 'onerous restrictions (spare me) invites a variety of four letter responses, most of which would see me banned from this site.
More hysterics.
The other 1,234,567,890 people that have survived it are sick of being held hostage by bedwetters.
You are ALL going to get the virus sooner or later and the VAST majority you are going to be completely fine.
There are two important things to do for those concerned.
1) Get vaccinated
2) Get a healthy BMI
It has an IFR of 0.15% so you are a wee way off on your risk assessment. Throw in the Covid treatments/license restrictions for frail drivers - to get that IFR even lower.
'All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS-CoV-2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.'
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13554
It's lower than 2%.
I don't know what the threshold should be, if this virus was killing 10% of people who were infected with it then I would say keeping doing lockdowns would be justified. Probably also 5%.
At current rates I don't think it's justified once we get our vaccination rates up within the coming month.
The actual number of people who have survived having it is 190,156,557 of the 212,554,454 who have had it.
Based on those numbers 2.08% of people who have had it have died. If something has a 2% chance of killing you then perhaps its worth thinking through the consequences pretty carefully before letting 'er rip. The vast majority of those numbers will be the bog standard variant, it's still not clear what these numbers look like for delta.
It's also not all that clear what percentage of those 190,156,557 have some form of long covid and how does it affect their quality of life.
Assuming middle age to be half the average life expectancy, IE, 41 the probability that that person would die on any given year is 0.002583%
You need to multiply that number by 800 to reach 2% so no, you absolutely are far off that probability.
Disagree Donny - we need to vaccinate the people spreading it. The problem here is that the current vaccination doesn't appear to stop it being spread. it may slow it down though as people are not getting as sick, thus their viral loading is lower. So by vaccinating the ones spreading it, the young mostly, the spread is slowed or stopped. The vulnerable become protected as a secondary effect.
"by vaccinating the ones spreading it, the young mostly"
give it up murrray
stop jabbing the kids for boomers
Can you definitely say that there wont be health consequences for jabbing healthy young people (and giving them ongoing boosters) ??...
No. No one does
The me generation want the future health of their kids as well
A reasoned argument?
Like everyone, Murray isnt looking beyond the short short term ...
So Whats the path out of here? - Endless boosters & giving kids experimental vaccines & boosters indefinitely ?... see Israel
PhDs have higher levels of vaccines hesitancy
I wonder why
Who do you define as kids Jim? By the 'young' you can see from the news reports are mostly 20 - 40s. Children are generally not the ones guilty of spreading the virus, but they are the victims, just as the older ones are. I realise it might hurt but try a little critical thinking and reasoned analysis. So far all you have done is criticise, but you have not put up one reasoned argument to support your perspective.
Hard to understand how your livelihood is "being destroyed" after 5 days of restriction, I suspect that is a lie. You do not understand why elimination is the best strategy on a respect of human-life basis, a removal of the long-term side effects of long-COVID and with regards to economic performance.
Feel free to do some research (or get someone you trust to help you) of your own instead of thinking (incorrectly) that someone needs (or even wants) to teach you.
Delta is a virus with a mind of its own. It's basically saying "Don't tell me what to do!" and will not conform to any specific pattern or predictions. When it's like this, then you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. No one wants to find out in hindsight they should have gone into lockdown, instead of staying open and letting everyone "keep their human rights to go out and do whatever they wanted". These lockdowns never last, at least not in NZ and even in America where they've had a year long lockdown in many places/states, they've had to start opening up. In that case, however, they are opening up because they've reached at least 60% vaccination of the population already.
Once NZ has reached at least 60% vaccinated, I'm sure we'll have more flexibility in our responses and not need to resort to lockdowns again. I mean, c'mon people, how many L4 lockdowns have we had in the past 18 months? Eight? Five? Three? No, just ONE... Remember, we're a small country - we don't have the infrastructure to handle even a medium number of cases at a time, let alone if there were thousands of infected persons. (India had a peak number of 400K cases a day, which translated to NZ would be the equivalent of 2k cases a day. I think we'd even struggle with 200 cases a day, let alone 2k!) These lockdowns not only contain spread, they also minimise the number of cases that the healthcare system will have to deal with. Would you like to be the one who's sick and be told there aren't enough beds for you to be admitted/helped?
The Pandemic is over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0nAqgQafhQ&t=0s
Delta has ripped through the highly populated countries and they have gotten to herd immunity through vaccination and getting the virus.
Delta is hospitalising children and young adults. Anyone that ends up in ICU on a ventilator, based on some overseas statistics, they probably only have a 10% chance of surviving. The younger population is at a lot higher risk this time around.
There is the issue in the UK where they have let the delta variant run rampant and the daily deaths are higher than last year, they are hospitalising just under 1000 people per day. Our hospitals would rapidly be overrun.
I know there has been some discussion of that there should be more capacity in the health system. Of the work I've done in the last year and half one job was an upgrade of an existing hospital wing. That didn't add much capacity. Unless we build more hospitals and have more medical staff trained and ready we won't have more capacity to deal with the infected.
I was getting the commenter to do the maths
its 5 of 72
just under 7%
do any have underlying conditions?
maybe we need to dial down the fear factor
"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/21/lockdowns-betray-folly-tryi…"
"Murray said the “overreaction” in both New Zealand and Australia had highlighted the absurdity of the zero-tolerance coronavirus mantra.
“Either you prepare to live with minimal cases or you have to lock down a whole country when even one person gets the virus.
“That latter approach will not just kill whole economies, but kill everything else that is left of society too. No country can live like that"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126150152/an-isolated-dystopi…
Oops.https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
What they do have is about half of the positive test results compared with January. It will be interesting to see how this progresses, while setting aside the fact that they are cutting down the number of tests carried out (they are still testing a very high number of people). The January blip seems to be when they allowed Christmas gatherings.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
"There is the issue in the UK where they have let the delta variant run rampant and the daily deaths are higher than last year,"
Eh? Currently at about 100 a day compared to 1200 a day last year...?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
It is surprising that the government hasn't urged people to improve the strength of their immune systems. Personally I have concentrated on only eating eggs, meat, low calorie vegetables and small amounts of fruit with some cheese and nuts. Take vitamin D and C. Long periods of no eating. Generally 18/6. Exercise a lot but never excessively. Mostly a lot of walking, body weight exercises and some light weight lifting. Never get all sweaty and worn out. Reduce or eliminate alcohol.
Feeling ten or twenty years younger. No aches and pains. Lost 10% of my body weight. Looking like an older Michelangelo's David right now.
Giving myself a fighting chance.
Why not have a fitness passport to go alongside the inevitable vaccine passport? It's only fair.
Derive a formula that looks at a combination of age, BMI, bodyfat, lung function, blood pressure etc and give everyone a score. If your score is below a threshold, then you can face some kind of penalty - perhaps your vaccination status could be "negated" until you get above the threshold.
Or if we want to take things to the extreme (like some seem to be suggesting with regards to vaccine passports) just triage healthcare to those who have passed the "health check".
After all, how many are there out in society who - even if they opt for vaccination against Covid - are placing themselves at undue risk if they get a breakthrough illness due to poor lifestyle choices?
Or people could just take better responsibility for their own health (and with that I'm off for a run).
We aren't anywhere near where we need to be for vaccinations to be having a real effect. That rate should ideally be 90%+, but likely around 60-80% we can probably start putting plans into motion. At around 25% we can't even entertain the notion...
It doesn't only affect the old. Young people still get sick and die from Delta and will spread it like wildfire throughout the population without some level of protection and isolation if we were to fully open up. UK are getting about the same death rate now that they do from flu, but still with isolation measures and ~62% vaccination rate.
Best thing you can do is get vaccinated and tell everyone else to. A high vaccination rate across age groups is the only way the country will be opened up (and should be) according to epidemiologists.
'Sweden was one of the few countries that decided to keep preschools (generally caring for children 1 to 6 years of age) and schools (with children 7 to 16 years of age) open. Here, we present data from Sweden on Covid-19 among children 1 to 16 years of age and their teachers. In Sweden, Covid-19 was prevalent in the community during the spring of 2020. Social distancing was encouraged in Sweden, but wearing face masks was not.
....The number of deaths from any cause among the 1,951,905 children in Sweden (as of December 31, 2019) who were 1 to 16 years of age was 65 during the pre–Covid-19 period of November 2019 through February 2020 and 69 during 4 months of exposure to Covid-19 (March through June 2020) (see the Supplementary Appendix). From March through June 2020, a total of 15 children with Covid-19 (including those with MIS-C) were admitted to an ICU (0.77 per 100,000 children in this age group) (Table 1), 4 of whom were 1 to 6 years of age (0.54 per 100,000) and 11 of whom were 7 to 16 years of age (0.90 per 100,000). Four of the children had an underlying chronic coexisting condition (cancer in 2, chronic kidney disease in 1, and hematologic disease in 1). No child with Covid-19 died.'
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2026670
The problem with this Adern government, in keeping with its ineffectual approach to most things it seems, is that it simply reacts rather than pre-plans to create effective measures. We should have been far further down the road with our vaccinations and have used the last six months to improve systems in the face of evolving strains of Covid. Now Hipkins announces mandatory use of Covid contact tracing measures where-ever we go. Whilst I agree this can be a very effective tool it has only limited value if everyone who needs to be tested cannot get a test (just roll out the individual saliva tests to prevent these kilometers of car queues at testing stations Jacinda!) because unless you can identify everyone who has the virus then contact tracing becomes only partly helpful; it only takes a few people who are unaware they are carriers to defeat the containment strategy. Anyway, the Ministry of Health contact tracing team seem to be overwhelmed already so how they will cope with more contact tracing to follow up on is anyone's guess.
By using the covid19 scanner app notifications can be sent automatically out to people. In theory, if everyone scanned 100% of the time this would not require contact tracers to phone close contacts directly, thereby saving a significant amount of time and resource.
On a vaccine related note, does anybody here know the current position with regards to employers requiring vaccination for current employees?
My wife's boss sent around an email late last week, saying that they will be checking all employee's vaccination status and if you aren't vaccinated (or decline to say if you are) then they will be looking at moving you out of any public-facing role, and if there is no "internal" role available as a fallback then you're gone.
This is not a border facility, MIQ or anything so doesn't fall under the Public Health Order instructions. At alert levels 3/4 they all work from home anyway.
Disclosure: Both of us are in the mid-20s age group so last in queue - will both get it at some point, but she has a history of adverse reactions as well as some fertility issues so wants to consult her doctor first, and is worried she will be on the chopping block at work if that takes a while to work through.
Article 6 – Consent
1. Any preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic medical intervention is only to be carried out with the prior, free and informed consent of the person concerned, based on adequate information. The consent should, where appropriate, be express and may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without disadvantage or prejudice.
http://portal.unesco.org/en/ev.php-URL_ID=31058&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SEC…
China in concert with Russia have not been idle preparing the ground for themselves in Afghanistan. Mining lithium & others, prospects enormous. Strategically geographically though, a gigantic area of influence, Afghanistan, Iran & Syria, the sub continent to the Mediterranean and with Pakistan in the mix too, India will be feeling somewhat lonely and to the west the status of Iraq becomes even more pivotal. Chinese army does not need to march anywhere much does it.
The main one to watch out for is China. They have manpower and war material to easily throw into that theatre without breaking a sweat. This could be why the US beat a hasty retreat and left a lot of war material behind for the Taliban to potentially use against China, or make China think twice. China, however, was already talking and getting friendly with the Taliban even before the US withdrawal, so there's concern they may end up allies (though hard to imagine considering the situation with Muslims in XinJiang although Afghanistan being a fractious country, they may ignore their Muslim brothers' plight in China - most other Muslim nations seem to have as well) or at least not enemies.
All the silk road countries (Iran, Pakistan, and probably the other 'stans' such as Uzbekistan) have been getting close to China recently, so they'd count loosely as allies. I think that's why Russia has been quick to work jointly with Uzbekistan to secure the Uzbek border to prevent Taliban incursions northward. They're not remembered fondly in Afghanistan, so I don't think they're welcome there.
India is somewhat surrounded at this point (China has a naval base in Myanmar, and ports they helps build in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh) but thankfully they have the Indian Ocean and China isn't a full naval superpower yet.
Not all is well with the belt and road plan
Protests in Pakistan erupt against China’s belt and road plan -However, locals said they had been promised that China’s investment in Gwadar would mean development for the area, including the establishment of a coal-fired power station to provide much-needed electricity.
Yet, in the years since China was granted a lease on Gwadar port, no work has begun on any such projects and instead locals say that China’s presence is undermining their livelihoods and creating local food shortages by allowing Chinese fishing boats to illegally fish in Pakistan’s waters around the port.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/20/water-protests-in-p…
Yes the Muslim dynamics curled up in all of this must be complex.China under the international spotlight for treatment of their relative subjects. Russia must indeed be nervous about the security of buffer nations on the border and potential stirring up Chechnya. There is already a Pakistani Taliban in play. Iran has no tolerance of anything other than their way. How long then before the Taliban decide Afghanistan is not big enough for them. A playing field of double edged swords stirring up a lot of dust.
FG. Given Afghanistan is deeply divided along ethnic and drug lord loyalty lines, geographically fractured to an almost impassable degree, chronically poor and wickedly corrupt, I suggest the Taliban mounting a nationally co-ordinated external military campaign is unlikely. The most they'd be capable of is nurturing ethno/religious terrorists for local proxy wars, which is probably what you are thinking. But another, and internationally blockbusting development that'll have them reluctant to engage in adventurism, is Ardern's ominous warning that she will be keeping an eye on them. You can see the terror in their eyes in media photos. 'Jacinda is watching', they fearfully whisper to each other.
Yes indeed it will be the infiltrator subverter crew & that will include their Al Qaeda & similar pals. You continue on to remind me though of someone’s post here a while back, when in 1937 or so, the editorial of The Reefton Post or similar “we have repeatedly warned Herr Hitler that his policies and actions are not being viewed as being acceptable” or something like that. There it is. Delusions of grandeur methinks.
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976519122/fall-in-real-house-prices…
Are they serious : Expecting house price to fall from end of next year and BIG predection by 3%.
What a joke. Mr Orr throws one and media and so called experts falls for it.
Question to be asked :
If know that house price will rise for next 15 months, What are you doing ?
Does 3% fall after 40% to 100% rise has any meaning ?
When you say that little rise in interest rate will not have any effect, Why not use other tools and measures ?
When aware that housing ponzi is at unsustainable level....Also that this will keep on continue for next year or two....and....even if any fall will be marginal.....3%......SO WHAT IS THE POINT OF BEING AWARE.
Jacinda and Orr are using crisis like panademic to suit the biased vested interest.........media too fallining....are they ignorant or stupid or both ......may be willingly as too ......
More immediately, the Canadians got their expected strong bounce in retail sales in June, with them up +4.2% as lockdown restrictions were eased in the month.
Funded by the mortgage top up? - Canadian Mortgage Debt Rises Fastest Since 2007
As the US approaches the heart of their summer holiday season, the American currency is on the rise - and many say it is now above 'fair value'.
Now comes the dollar. I wrote in early July how it might have been a positive sign the dollar hadn’t yet “joined” yields.
"On the flipside, though, this stubborn dollar along with the direction of global yields completely refutes any chances for inflation. That much is clear, with both bonds and currencies in agreement about the global (yes, global) factors underlying clearly still disinflationary/deflationary tendencies.
But not yet the wrecking ball; in a sense it’s good that the dollar hasn’t moved higher more than it has. Yields are down, and maybe things turn around before the dollar joins them in repeating the rollover pattern taking everything down again".
Nuts to that now.
With the dollar renewed in its bid (meaning growing monetary tightness), throw in these leading commodities now leading the way down toward deflationary again, and the signposts on the road to that more determined deflation are expanding and becoming more numerous as well as significant. It’s not that copper like lumber is now a different thing, they’ve joined the big thing already long in its progress. Link
Dollar milkshake theory playing out perhaps?
"Because the world is completely run by fiat currencies, cash whose value is not backed by some physical good such as gold or silver, Brent expects a massive devaluation of currencies across the board. Because of the U.S. is a relatively safer, stronger economy, he expects capital to flood into its domestic markets"
the wolf street opinion
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/08/18/whats-behind-this-messed-up-bond-mark…
Most Volvos are made in Sweden. https://www.gunthervolvocarsdaytona.com/where-are-volvo-cars-made.htm
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