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TSB boss says any credit rating downgrade wouldn't be a fair reflection of the bank's 'exceptional' performance

TSB boss says any credit rating downgrade wouldn't be a fair reflection of the bank's 'exceptional' performance

By Gareth Vaughan

TSB Bank CEO Kevin Murphy says any credit rating downgrade from Standard & Poor's wouldn't necessarily be a reflection of the bank's performance, and credit ratings aren't a definitive view on the financial performance of an organisation anyway.

Speaking to interest.co.nz after TSB posted a $5.3 million, or 11%, rise in annual net profit after tax to $53.1 million, Murphy appeared irked by S&P's recent threat to downgrade TSB along with seven other New Zealand financial institutions. Earlier this month S&P revised its outlook on TSB's BBB+ credit rating to negative from stable, and said it might downgrade the rating by one or two notches within two years if economic vulnerabilities worsen.

"Given what they (S&P) are looking at doing in the macro (economic) area, it's not necessarily a reflection of the performance of the bank," Murphy said. "So it's important, if there were to be an adjustment, that it was clearly communicated to our clients and through the media, the rationale behind it, because the bank continues to perform exceptionally well."

S&P said its action was due to its belief that New Zealand’s economic vulnerabilities, including a material dependence on external borrowings, persistent current account deficits, and recent strong growth in house prices, could escalate.

"In our view, this increases the risk of a deterioration in New Zealand banks’ credit qualities," S&P said. "The negative outlook does not reflect deterioration in our assessment of bank-specific credit factors."

TSB sources a tiny amount of its funding from wholesale sources, with the rest from retail deposits, and all from within New Zealand. Murphy said there were no plans to increase wholesale funding.

Call for education on credit ratings

And he suggested better education was needed on what credit ratings are.

"I think there's an education process across the board that needs to take place for the New Zealand market in terms of what credit ratings are about," Murphy (pictured below) said.

"Pre-global financial crisis there were a number of financial institutions worldwide that had A (credit) ratings that no longer exist. So a (credit) rating is not necessarily a definitive view on the financial performance of an organisation."

Registered banks are required by the Reserve Bank to have a credit rating. See credit ratings explained here.

In terms of other sources of information about banks' financial strength Murphy pointed to KPMG's regular Financial Institutions Performance Survey, "which ranks banks across a number of performance measures," and PwC's Banking Perspectives reports. KPMG is also TSB's auditor.

"There are reports out there that perhaps give a more wholesome view of how an organisation's performing," said Murphy.

March quarter lending grows

TSB's latest General Disclosure Statement, released with its annual report, shows the bank grew residential mortgage lending by $24.8 million, or 1%, in the three months to March 31 to almost $2.5 billion. Along with rivals, TSB has been offering extras to try and entice borrowers. In its case it has been up to $1,000 towards legal fees and an iPad or iPhone 5 with its 4.95%, 15-month home loan offer. Murphy declined to say how many iPhones and iPads had been given away, saying only that the promotion had gone "significantly better than what we'd anticipated."

However, he noted "intense" competition in residential mortgage lending, with this - if anything - having intensified in the time since TSB's March 31 year end. Asked whether the current level of mortgage competition was sustainable Murphy said lending margins were tight.

"Banks are looking to grow their loan books so there is potentially room with margins to further grow the business, but margins are at very low levels now so you can only go so far with that sort of thing," he said.

"It's not difficult to work out when you've got deposit rates at over 4% and lending rates below 5%, and when you factor in the incentives being offered around that, there's not a lot of margin in it when you're funding off the retail market as we do."

In the March quarter TSB grew its business lending by $8.6 million to almost $189.4 million, and its farm loans by $18 million to $137.8 million. Gross loans rose $52.8 million, or 2%, to $2.882 billion.

Deposits rose $35.6 million, or 0.72%, to $4.939 billion. Of the total just $24.9 million is wholesale deposits.

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14 Comments

TSB Bank CEO Kevin Murphy says any credit rating downgrade from Standard & Poor's wouldn't necessarily be a reflection of the bank's performance, and credit ratings aren't a definitive view on the financial performance of an organisation anyway.

 

Fine. I have a few $million looking for a home  -  can Mr Murphy offer the assurances needed to secure the wellbeing of this sum, if deposited at his institution, beyond those served up by the credit rating agencies? Obviously, the regulator [RBNZ] has to approve of the metrics. 

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Partner up with an astute 50/50 sharemilker, Stephen.  Good operators earn returns of 20%+. ;-)

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LOL CO - I looked into it back in the early 2000s. Engaged Nico Mouton, a Waikato dairy consultant - flagged it away due to heavy negative carry return. - $3.0 million farm was to return $80,000.00  - the justification for the investment was predicated on the prospect of interest costs being over capitalised in short time frames. In fact the farms I viewed did exactly that over ensuing years - they more than doubled in value - but that is not a way to run a profitable ongoing business.

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That is confused and confusing

 

(a) If an astute sharemilker can return 20% without owning the farm, then how much does the farm owner want?
(b) Has to be better than 0%
(c) Combined return of operation must be north of 25%
(d) Any business returning over 25% is .....
(e) Are you serious?

 

Stephen Hulme
Are you responding to the "sharemilking" proposition?

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YES

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See how ambiguous the written word is .. I read CO's proposition as partnering up with a sharemilker as a "silent partner" in the sharemilking business whereas you read it as "buying the farm" and getting an astute sharemilker in to run the operation for you - my mistake ...

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Ah, no Stephen.  Sorry I wasn't clear.  I was referring to an actual sharemilking partnership - nothing to do with farm ownership.

 

The money in dairy farming, IMHO, is not in the North Island.  It is in the South Island.  I have never heard of the farm consultant of whom you speak, but then I left the Waikato farming scene in 1983 and never went back.  In 2000 we sold our farm in the North Island and invested in Southland.  No regrets at all and would never consider a dairy farm in the North Island now, though you need to do your research, especially on Regional Council rules if buying in the South.

 

We do employ 50/50 sharemilkers and are 'silent' partners in a sharemilking arrangement.  50/50 sharemilkers can earn returns of up to 25% (if they are switched on). Ours is a more philosophical reason for employing 50/50 sharemilkers. It is a way for young farmers to move up through the system to farm ownership, as we did.  One day, when the MOTH isn't able to oversee the farm, we may want to sell and who is going to buy our farm, if we don't support the young farmers.  We don't make a huge fortune but we are comfortably off, and have a lifestyle many others covet. There are also reality checks such as you have less employment issues if the milker has 'skin in the game' as well -  A real consideration if you are an absentee owner.  We don't use farm consultants - the MOTH is quite capable of overseeing the place.

 

Sharemilkers taking on more than one sharemilking contract is becoming less unusual now.  They need capital to do that. One of the biggest risks in 50/50 sharemilking is stock values dropping quickly and suddenly.  But then nothing in life is without risks and that is all about your risk management strategies.

 

Check this out for sharemilking data http://www.dairybase.co.nz/file/fileid/38260

Dairybase http://www.dairybase.co.nz/page/pageid/2145841108/Benchmark_Data is worth having a look at. The caveat on the data is that it is still in it's growing stage and in it is really only in the last year or so that more and more farmers/accountants are willing to put their financial data in it.  But the figures are real - taken from farm financial accounts.

Edit - stock

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well bugger me

 

Marlborough - Canterbury
Return on assets 24.8%
Return on equity 75.2%

 

Otago - Southland
Return on assets 23.3%
Return on equity 52.6%

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:-) Dairy is often maligned, however show me another industry/sector that has commitment to continuing education opportunities (not just sitting papers but via discussion groups/benchmarking such as DairyBase etc etc) for industry players that dairy does.  - Simply, there is no other. :-)

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I have never heard of the farm consultant of whom you speak, but then I left the Waikato farming scene in 1983 and never went back

 

I dealt NZ Government and SOE debt with the old National Bank Treasury Department and they got the farm economist or whoever to arrange an introduction to Nico Mouton, if my memory serves me well.

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As the customer with a few million to place I guess you would need to specify what " assurances needed to secure the wellbeing of this sum" you require over and above those in the public domain or derived from your own nouse.

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No, not at all.

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With OBR just arround the corner I would prefer to deposit my money with a Bank that does not have covered bonds and / or an offshore parent that can play arround with, bad or doughtful loans, in either country, or transfer the better securities to the home base.

Some if not all of the NZ banks have healthy ballance sheets and, even some of NZ building societies or credit union's are worth considering.

Spread it arround and support "KIWI MADE",Help grow NZ

KevinR

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