Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news our immediate future looks relatively bright.
The OECD has come out with its latest updates to its world economic forecasts and New Zealand is viewed well. They say we will grow 3.3% in 2014, up from 2.3% this year and slightly higher than the RBNZ view.
Our 2014 growth will exceed their forecasts for Australia, the US, the UK, Japan, even Germany. In fact we will be better than most countries, even Sweden, Denmark and Norway.
But we will be well in the shade of China, who they see growing at a faster pace of 8.2% next year.
All this will contrast with news reports in other countries, where they will note that the OECD is saying most growth will sag noticeably.
In imminent news, the previously signaled US$13 billion settlement by JP Morgan is expected any time now with a confirming announcement, probably after New York markets close.
In China, their central bank has said it will 'basically' end normal intervention in the currency market and broaden the yuan’s daily trading limit. However, they didn't give a date when this change will start.
Speaking of Chinese banks, we reported yesterday that the giant ICBC is now registered as a bank in New Zealand. News here of course, but also 'front [home] page news' on China Daily - apparently an important development from a Chinese point of view too.
Overnight, markets for equities, gold, oil, and UST 10 year benchmark bonds all flat lined. Currencies were similar. Apparently 'they' are awaiting signals from an upcoming Bernanke speech.
The overnight Fonterra auction saw prices holding with the average price up 0.1% in US dollar terms, down 0.4% in NZ dollar terms on the recently stronger currency.
The NZ dollar starts today at 83.4 USc, 88.6 AUc, and the TWI is at 77.8.
The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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12 Comments
Did people see JP Morgan's Twitter disaster? For some reason the company PR people thought it would be a good idea to publically invite questions to the company from the internet.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/currency/2013/11/jpmorgans-twitte…
FINANCIAL TIMES
Tuesday November 19 2013
BREAKING NEWS
JPMorgan agrees $13bn settlement
JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay $13bn in fines and consumer relief to the US Department of Justice and state authorities in a landmark settlement and admitted it mis-sold mortgage securities in the lead-up to the financial crisis.
Bigger bitter twits.
Management get the experience and shareholders pick up the tab.
Release should read " J P Morgan agree to transfer $ 13 B of shareholders funds for settlement - No penalty on management who instituted these blatant rip-offs."
Be very clear who is paying for managements actions - the shareholders. Pension funds, investors - What sort of so called " message " does this send to shareholders to "modify" their behaviour when they had no input whatsoever. Sell the shares would seem to be the answer.
a) NZ isnt doing well, its staggering along breaking even at best.
b) Will Labour/Greens do better is a harder Q to answer. Asset sales? simply not needed, PPP? shown elsewhere to be an utter disaster, oh wait, Chorus here as well. Short termism against the environment? ie neuter the RMA didnt go well with many NZers by the look of it. No vision? we are past peak oil and the Nats solution is, keep drilling. Housing? BE likes the hard right solutions....hard right as in Act that have 1 MP due to a sell out. Inequality? rising, Steve Joyce says not to worry poor almost no inflation.....smug, wrong and doesnt care. Cronyism? JK is happy to sell most of NZers out on the TPP to support its farmer voter base's mistaken belief they will get into the USA....a country that's broke....yes that makes sense.
So in a few words, Policy and attitude can hardly be any worse.
regards
A leetle history lesson perhaps, Steven.
- 2002 LG Amendment Act (courtesy of one Sandra Lee) gave Councils the 'Four Well-beings' to play with. As every legal human activity fits into one of the Four, this has led to a Councils cost explosion that will take a generation to rein in.
- ACC expansion into a defacto welfare scheme. on the tried and true political principle that Gubmint being the payer, parent, carer, and general provider, does somewhat incline voters (because yes, all these sorry asses can Vote) to vote for Mo' Good Timez.
- Immigration and general corruption ditto, and for much the same reasons. Recall Taito Phillip Field?
- I'm sure that common taters can come up with extensions to this list.
So, in fact, there are considerably worse policy settings and general attitudes/culture, than the one we have now.
And I, for one, would not care to go back to that.
Unless they come up with a Rilly Good Monetary Inducement, of course....everyone has their price.
Can't speak for anyone else but I support the left coalition in their concerns regarding:
The TPP sellout of our sovereignty
Invasion off privacy for no good reason
Sale of national assets to rent seaking ticket clippers
Sale of land to foreigners
"Roll over and screw me" sell outs to global corporations
Rising inequality - fostered by low quality immigration and anti labour laws.
Lack of any encouragment to regional development
Short sighted expoitation of non renewable resources by overseas interests with marginal return to Kiwis
The joke capital gains tax we have.
etc.
The OECD "predicting" a cyclical bump in GDP is nothing to celebrate if it is bought at the cost of the above.
Steven, Greens are anti business, you are delusional if you think Lab/Gre is better option. Do you think money will come from trees when business gets hammered with extra burdens?
NZ is doing well despite the GFC, you can only compare with other countries. Tell me this, if NZ is staggering along why are we having nett migration? Better to be staggering along than lying in the gutter.
Business confidence is high, buisness creates income from NZ, not government. I know employers who cannot find the right staff etc.
the best status seems to have found all the answers? Try this.
We are having nett migration because of some returning citizens - possibly.
The real reason for nett migration is the loose rules that allow in numbers of those seeking a bolt hole, who have enough cash (even temporarily) to con our immigration rules such as they are. Add the granting of residency to graduating(?) foreign students without them having to return to their own country and prove their worth first. The we allow them to drag in the hangers-on using loosely managed rules. Net migration is no measure of our position. We offer our own student graduates the chance to leave the country because we fail to find them worth in jobs here. We seem to have no connect between the tertiary education numbers that the establishments offer and the availability of jobs afterwards, but we offer residency to those from outside.
Try measuring our so called growth on a per capita basis and see where that gets us. Has anyone got figures on that?
Then just take away the incoming capital from foreigners who have no intention of helping this country and see where that leaves us. That capital is very fluid and we will find out when it starts to fly out again when we hit the wall as we surely will in due course.
Business is confident because of the extra volume of building, much of it resulting from inflowsof christchurch re-insurance money. That will disappear as well soon enough.
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