Here's my summary of the key news over the weekend in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of strong American jobs numbers.
In the US, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in April from 6.7%. On a non-seasonally adjusted - actual - basis its fallen faster to 5.9%. The Fed noticed.
Employment gains were widespread, led by job growth in professional and business services, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction. The three prior months were revised higher too, pushing them all over 200,000 gains per month. The long-term unemployed numbers fell as well.
The US has now recovered almost all the jobs lost in their recession. But the participation rate fell back to the level it was at the start of the year, and the number of people in the labour force isn't growing.
In Australia, it is being widely signaled that a 'temporary levy' of 1% of income for people who earn more than A$80,000 a year will be in their next budget. People on higher incomes "should bear a significant quantum of the burden" their prime minister said when asked whether it was being considered. It is part of a wide range of measures they will introduce to tackle a large debt build-up. There may also be a 2% extra for those on incomes of A$180,000, and taking their top income tax rate to 49%. It's all part of an elusive chase for a 'return to surplus'.
In China, their services industries expanded more than expected in data released over the weekend.
Gold and oil start the week a little higher with gold just under US$1,300/oz.
UST 10 yr benchmark bonds however sank almost 7 bps in Friday trading in New York and are now at 2.59%. That will no doubt influence today's NZ swap market.
We start today with the NZ dollar up again, now at 86.7 USc, also up against the Aussie at 93.5 AUc and the TWI is just a fraction over 80.5.
If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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4 Comments
The 6.3% NFP figure is derived by not counting a lot of people.....
"how in the world can the government claim that the unemployment rate has "dropped" to "6.3 percent"? Well, it all comes down to how you define who is "unemployed". For example, last month the government moved another 988,000 Americans into the "not in the labor force" category. According to the government, at this moment there are 9.75 million Americans that are "unemployed" and there are 92.02 million Americans that are "not in the labor force" for a grand total of 101.77 million working age Americans that do not have a job."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-04/number-working-age-americans-w…
As with all statistics spouted by vested interests, especially Americas, they have to be taken with a pinch of salt, a dose of reality, a broader viewpoint and a perspective of what the outcome will eventually end up to be.
Bull-shit and lies is part of the hype.
Not that it is working, mostly, unfortunately, it is not.
Via email from MISH
"This month sported another amazing difference between the household survey and the payroll survey. The difference is so vast that looking at the numbers in isolation, one might think the results were from two different countries."
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