Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were none today, except to note that both ANZ and ASB have let their cash incentives expire. BNZ and Westpac still have them "for a limited time" but only to be able to match their rivals. We will see which way they go fairly soon, I would think. But also note that Kiwibank still has their offers, and TSB Bank improved its cash incentive offer late last week. We are watching for blinking ...
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
FinanceDirect have reduced their term deposit rates for terms 1 - 3 years, reduced their 49 month special, but have raised their offer for 5 years. This 5 year rate went up to 8.10% from 7.75%.
FINANCE NOW SPREADS WINGS
SBS Bank's FinanceNow division is getting aggressive in the asset lending space. We have heard they have poached two lending managers each from Heartland and UDC. Asset lending is a very buoyant sector right now and so there should be room for another aggressive lender. Finance Now are targeting the booming motor vehicle market for their expansion.
BEST SINCE 1973
Stats NZ today surprised everyone with their report that our terms of trade have reached a 41 year high. But no-one believes it can be sustained, with a chorus of commentators saying its all downhill from here. Export prices fell, but import prices fell even more. Westpac said "the long-term picture for New Zealand’s exports remains intact, and by the end of the year we expect commodity prices to be staging a recovery."
A MORE MODERATE PACE
Treasury's latest review of our economy was out today, and in true pre-election style, was short on anything contentious. But they did say the pace of economic growth is still expected to be above trend and inflationary pressures are likely to gradually build given that spare capacity has been exhausted. Growth will continue to be supported by the Canterbury rebuild and elevated domestic demand as the net inflow of external migrants remains high. They also expect dairy prices to pick up later in the year.
$100 MLN COMMUTER RAIL FOR CHRISTCHURCH
The Labour Party is promising commuter rail links between Rangiora and Rolleston to "unclog Christchurch". Not sure how many people actually need to go between these two centres however. I doubt Christchurch has the density to make that anything but a subsidy sinkhole.
MINING HOLDING AUSTRALIA BACK
Aussie company profits were weaker than expected in the June quarter and stocks grew more than expected. That inventory rise will probably help their Q2 GDP result, but after that todays data still suggests a softening of underlying domestic demand. Mining is driving both changes.
MORE NORMAL
BNZ's online sales tracking shows that growth of online retail is trending down and is reverting to levels seen for retail sales generally. The same report shows that the strong NZD hides the the continuing progress of overseas online retail in this market.
WHOLESALE RATES
Swap rates rose today, about +2 bps across the while curve. The 90 day bank bill rate fell however and is back to 3.70%.
OUR CURRENCY
Check our real-time charts here. The NZ dollar reacted to the terms of trade data by rising modestly and is now at 83.7 USc, now at 89.6 AUc and the TWI is at 79.0.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

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