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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Gold Band Finance cuts, building activity jumps, commodity prices stop falling, rents jump, swaps rise and steepen

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Gold Band Finance cuts, building activity jumps, commodity prices stop falling, rents jump, swaps rise and steepen

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There have been no changes today.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Gold Band Finance today cut all offer rates for terms 6 months to 5 years, all cuts in the range -20 to -50 bps.

A RECORD HIGH
Building activity reached a record high in the December 2015 quarter, with an increase from the previous quarter in Auckland but a decrease in Canterbury. The total volume of building work rose +2.5% from the previous quarter (sa), with rises of +2.8% for residential buildings and +2.3% for non-residential buildings. Today's data is the most building activity since the data series began 26 years ago. Westpac called it a surge and said there is "more to come". Infometrics said non-residential building work fell short of expectations, due entirely to a shortfall in education building over the period.

STABILISING AT LAST
The ANZ Commodity Price Index stabilised in February (+0.4% m/m), following three consecutive monthly falls. Offsetting movements were apparent, with gains in beef and aluminium prices offset by price falls across the dairy complex. A resilient NZD also meant aggregate local prices were unchanged, but there were variations across sectors. Prices are down -17.8% on a year ago (-10.4% in NZD terms), with world prices -31% below early 2014 peaks.

HOUSING GROWTH EVAPORATING
Auckland's largest realtor, Barfoot & Thompson, reported today that the median price dropped -2.9% to $738,000 for their sales in February. This is down $62,000 since December. They sold just 698 houses sold in the month, down -17% on same month a year ago and the lowest level for a February since 2011 (and 2015 had an extra selling day as well).

SLOWING GROWTH
The vast Chinese service sector is still expanding, unlike its much smaller manufacturing cousin. Latest data show a softening of growth momentum across China’s service sector, with business activity expanding at only a modest pace. Furthermore, the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index reading of 51.2 was down from January’s six-month high of 52.4 and pointed to a rate of growth that was much slower than the historical series average. Ditto Japan.

ALL TIME HIGH
National median rents hit an all time high in February of $380/week. They were pushed up by strong rises for both Auckland and Wellington 3 br houses ($620/wk and $545/week respectively), along with a record high for 2br flats in Wellington at $395/week.

BIGGER DEFICIT IGNORED
The Australian trade deficit fell in January to AU$2.9 bln from AU$3.5 bln in December, and below market expectations of AU$3.3 bln. The better-than-expected result isn't hurting the AUD. But markets seem to be overlooking the bigger picture. The deficit for the year to January is AU$34.6 bln compared with the equivalent year to January 2015 which was AU$10.9 bln. However for a NZ$1.7 tln economy (annual GDP), these deficits are pretty small.

WHOLESALE RATES FIRM
There has been only a firming and steepening of swap rates today, despite a big jump on Wall Street earlier today. NZ swap rates are here. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.58%.

NZ DOLLAR UP A LITTLE AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up from this time yesterday. It is now at 66.7 USc, but down at 91.4 AUc. The TWI-5 is at 71.3. Check our real-time charts here.

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Daily exchange rates

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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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5 Comments

Okay commodity prices have stopped falling?

So is China ( or someone else ) buying stuff again ?

Or are we going to see a dead -cat -bounce ?

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It's starting to look as several of the major commodities have bottomed but until we see oil above $60-70 the oil sovereign wealth funds are going to continue liquidating assets.

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/3533485/investors-sovereig…

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The problem is I dont see how "we" can really say what the size of the effect is for the various factors.

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