A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Residential property investors resurgent, mixed trade results, Reserve Bank consults, OCR headed for 1.5%?

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Residential property investors resurgent, mixed trade results, Reserve Bank consults, OCR headed for 1.5%?

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank, AMP and Housing New Zealand all cut fixed rates today. Kiwibank's new 4.25% special two-year rate from Monday (for those with 20% equity) is a new market leader among the big banks.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Nelson Building Society and Kiwibank cut rates. The Nelson Building Society's 3, 6, 9,  24 and 36 month rates were cut by between 5 and 25 basis points. Kiwibank trimmed its Notice Saver 32 day rate by 25 basis points and the 90 day rate by 20 basis points.

See all advertised, or carded, term deposit rates for one to nine months here, and see all term deposit rates for one to five years here.

THE RETURN OF THE INVESTORS
Residential property investors appear to be surging again after pulling back when the Reserve Bank introduced new lending limits for Auckland investors in November. New RBNZ figures just out show that in February the nearly $1.8 billion borrowed for mortgages by investors made up 34.4% of the total committed for mortgages in the month. This is just a little below the peak of 34.5% seen back in September when there were signs of investors rushing to get in before the new rules - which was followed the next month by the ratio of investors to the total dipping below 30%. The RBNZ has been non-committal about whether it thinks the restrictions are going to have a lasting impact, saying it wants to see housing data for March first.

MIXED TRADE RESULTS
Statistics New Zealand reports that February was a mixed month for our exports, though the export of a large drilling platform helped push the goods surplus (exports over imports) to $339 million. Without the platform, the surplus was just $72 million, while exports totalled $4 billion, up $96 million from February last year. Imports were up $108 million on February 2015 to a little over $3.9 billion.

CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS?
The Reserve Bank today began public consultation on a crisis management regime for systemically important financial market infrastructures (SIFMIs). The proposed regime forms the final part of proposals the Bank published in December 2015 for a new oversight regime for SIFMIs. The proposed crisis management regime has two parts. First, SIFMIs would be required to maintain business continuity plans and recovery and wind-down plans. Second, the Reserve Bank and the FMA (joint regulators) could call on proposed new statutory powers when these plans are inadequate to manage a crisis.

OCR TO GO TO 1.5%?
There's now a "very good chance" the Reserve Bank will cut the Official Cash Rate to as low as 1.5%, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists.

WHOLESALE RATES FALL
We continue to see a steepening of the NZ swap curve despite downward movements in global interest rates overnight. The 10-year swap spread remains near multi-level lows. The short and long end of the curve dropped 1 and 2 basis points respectively while the middle of the curve rose 1bps. The 90 day bank bill rate was 2.33% from 2.34% yesterday.

The latest bond tender of $100 mln worth of April 2033 government bonds was reasonably well bid at 2.7x coverage ratio and the weighted average accepted yield was 5 basis points above last month's inaugural tender. Westpac in their analysis prior to today's offer expected the tender should be supported by the resumption of the RBNZ’s easing cycle, low swap spreads, and steep curve.

NZ DOLLAR CONTINUES DOWNWARD TREND
The NZD/USD oscillated within a tight range for most of today's session. As Australia and Asia came on line we saw the NZD strengthen slightly but this boost of energy was short lived and the kiwi traded down towards the bottom of the day's range.

Overall the NZD is weaker against the widely recognised safe haven currencies (USD, Yen and Swiss Franc). The NZD continues its recent climb against the Aussie dollar and Pound, with the later continuing to be sold-off on 'Brexit' fears.

At present the NZD/USD is sitting around 67c and the NZD/AUD at 89.4c. The TWI is 70.80.

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11 Comments

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The latest bond tender of $100 mln worth of April 2033 government bonds was reasonably well bid at 2.7x coverage ratio and the weighted average accepted yield was 5 basis points above last month's inaugural tender. Westpac in their analysis prior to today's offer expected the tender should be supported by the resumption of the RBNZ’s easing cycle, low swap spreads, and steep curve.

A foreign poke in the eye for the NZ financial establishment? Maybe falling interest rates as far as any dare forecast doesn't fit foreign lenders perception of a financially challenged nation.

Investor growth in mortgages ties in with lower quartile rise in Auckland and the RBNZ figures . FHB fighting an uphill battle as interest rates fall.

No wonder investors are back in with banks offering rates of 4.05% for 1 or 2 years fixed and 4,64% floating. Forget the published rates - the banks are doing heavily discounted deals and offering substantial cash incentives again!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11...

What happened Saturday, a Satirical version to start your day, with just a touch of truth. Well a lot actually......Unfortunately.

Have a laugh...or cry...depending on your view point.

Remember the nutters are in charge of the entire World, we are just a small dot in a World gone mad. But catching up fast.

Some can waste more in a moment of madness, than most people can earn in a century of Labour and pretend it is in the National interest..

Happy Easter...

And then get back to work...you poor suckers you.

We have a flagging economy...and I am not really, really, really, surprised.

Some have a blank cheque...and money to burn. And you must reap the consequences.

A big part of the problem with New Zealand’s flag debate – in contrast to the referendums over Scottish independence and Brexit – is that it has been almost by definition superficial.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/24/new-zealand-flag-br...

The reader comments are priceless.

Then.

“Nothing means anything to Key,” said Steve Braunias, a journalist and commentator who wrote a book, Madmen: Inside the Weirdest Campaign Ever, on the 2014 election. “He will – as they say, and as he says all the time – move on.”

Key does look set to move on from the entire episode as though it never happened. By all appearances – every flagpole, uniform, driver’s licence – it didn’t.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/25/new-zealand-referendum-same...

Legacy, legend, lunchtime.
Alt. Thats yesterdays fish wrapper you got there.

I never buy Newspapers....so that might be the only main stream media that has any actual use in this totally bewildered world, I get to use.

I prefer to pick and choose by tit-bits from all around the World...Electronically.

And I certainly do not have any use for any of our Politicians, who are all a waste of time, effort and money, no matter what they drum up, or whatever issue they come from and followed.

Just like yesterdays news, addled history in the making. It will all come to pass, just like those fish and chips...will eventually pass...and turn to...what is the polite word..for it.....Oh...Crap, in more ways than one.

Never have we had such crap leaders, why the entire World is in the crapper....Can I make myself more clear...

They are getting a darn sight worse, why bother with elections, why bother with referendums over trivia, will never change a thing...

Leadership is not about leading us into disaster or to fail, but is surely seems like it.

Once we have flushed this lot, will the next load of crap be any better.

Methinks not.

Can I pick the next subject for debate...

Clearing us up from Shit Creek, with out a paddle and no one to guide us, except Former Bwankers...ye gods no wonder we are in the same old crap......again.

2008 we should have changed the world, not promoted em.

You can tell no one is working in the majorities Interest, this Easter, when they cannot even remove the figure head they assumed was a done deal from the page head of their figurehead they were really and truly supporting.

Also why is the back to the past feature coming up in the latest comments section...I prefer to read today's comments, not last months...as listed below.

http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/80264/elizabeth-kerr-says-%E2...

Someone is not keeping up with the times this Easter Sunday

Go figure.who...

I will give you a clue.

http://www.interest.co.nz/

A proof readers nightmare, or am I just being pedantic again....readers. or is it just me..

Alt, if you're there...
For me, it was this great awakening to understand that humans are deeply irrational, and it's probably the greatest influence on me in terms of my writing."

With analysis here is your politicing play book.

"Psychology is the only necessary skill for running for president," writes Adams, adding: "Trump knows psychology. "Within that context, here is what Candidate Trump is doing to win campaign hearts and minds, according to Scott Adams:

1. Trump knows people are basically irrational

"If you see voters as rational you'll be a terrible politician," Adams writes on his blog. "People are not wired to be rational. Our brains simply evolved to keep us alive. Brains did not evolve to give us truth. Brains merely give us movies in our minds that keeps us sane and motivated. But none of it is rational or true, except maybe sometimes by coincidence."

2. Knowing that people are irrational, Trump aims to appeal on an emotional level

"The evidence is that Trump completely ignores reality and rational thinking in favour of emotional appeal," Adams writes. "Sure, much of what Trump says makes sense to his supporters, but I assure you that is coincidence. Trump says whatever gets him the result he wants. He understands humans as 90 per cent irrational and acts accordingly." Adams adds: "People vote based on emotion. Period."

3. By running on emotion, facts don't matter

"While his opponents are losing sleep trying to memorise the names of foreign leaders – in case someone asks – Trump knows that is a waste of time ... ," Adams writes. "There are plenty of important facts Trump does not know. But the reason he doesn't know those facts is – in part – because he knows facts don't matter. They never have and they never will. So he ignores them." And stating numbers that might not quite be facts nevertheless can anchor those numbers, and facts, in your mind.

4. If facts don't matter, you can't really be 'wrong'

Trump "doesn't apologise or correct himself. If you are not trained in persuasion, Trump looks stupid, evil, and maybe crazy", Adams writes. "If you understand persuasion, Trump is pitch-perfect most of the time. He ignores unnecessary rational thought and objective data and incessantly hammers on what matters (emotions)."

"Did Trump's involvement in the birther thing confuse you?" Adams goes on to ask. "Were you wondering how Trump could believe Obama was not a citizen? The answer is that Trump never believed anything about Obama's place of birth. The facts were irrelevant, so he ignored them while finding a place in the hearts of conservatives. For later. "This is later. He plans ahead."

5. With fewer facts in play, it's easier to bend reality

Steve Jobs famously aimed to create "reality distortion fields" to meet his needs and achieve his ends. Trump employs similar techniques, and apparently can be similarly thin-skinned when his "reality" is challenged. "The Master Persuader will warp reality until he gets what he wants," writes Adams, noting that Trump is "halfway done" already. (Among the persuasive techniques that Trump uses to help bend reality, Adams says, are repetition of phrases; "thinking past the sale" so the initial part of his premise is stated as a given; and knowing the appeal of the simplest answer, which relates to the concept of Occam's razor.)

6. To bend reality, Trump is a master of identity politics – and identity is the strongest persuader

"Do you think it is a coincidence that Trump called Megyn Kelly a bimbo and then she got a non-bimbo haircut that is ... well, Trumpian?" Adams writes. "It doesn't look like a coincidence to this trained persuader." One way to achieve this is by deploying "linguistic kill shots" that land true, and alter perception through two ways.

"The best Trump linguistic kill shots," Adams writes,"have the following qualities: 1. Fresh word that is not generally used in politics; 2. Relates to the physicality of the subject (so you are always reminded)."

Writes Adams: "Identity is always the strongest level of persuasion. The only way to beat it is with dirty tricks or a stronger identity play ... (And) Trump is well on his way to owning the identities of American, Alpha Males, and Women Who Like Alpha Males. Clinton is well on her way to owning the identities of angry women, beta males, immigrants, and disenfranchised minorities.

"If this were poker, which hand looks stronger to you for a national election?"

http://m.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-will-win-in-a-landsli...

Shall we call your party Control Alt d'Elete.
Not as if anyone else does so.

Henry as usual, very erudite.

I have no real control, over my Alt or ability to Delete non functioning keys, mainstream since leaving main stream Computing, many years ago.

Computing is just used online here as just a plaything to keep me amused these days. As is my Altered Ego.

Political ambitions are now also away with the fairies, could not possibly compete on the World Stage, with the likes of those around today. I am nuts, but not quite as nuts as some.

But thanks for the thoughts and the links you provide.... Always a treat....or is that a threat.

Scott Adams and Dilbert and Trump...in the same breath and almost in the White House...how Bizarre is that.

I hope Scott was joking...but maybe Scott and Dilbert are Trump's Alter Ego...by proxy and by definition.

Have a good night.......This Easter Bunny is off for an early drink.....

Cheers,

Alt