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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; ANZ does a good thing, NZGBs in high demand, huge commissions, job ads up, sentiment eased, swap rates jump, NZD holds

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; ANZ does a good thing, NZGBs in high demand, huge commissions, job ads up, sentiment eased, swap rates jump, NZD holds

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today, so far.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.

KUDOS TO A BANK
But ANZ did announce some very worthwhile changes to how much it will charge for currency transfers to Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu. In addition to the exchange rate (which usually includes a generous spread, especially for smaller amounts), they have capped their fee at $7 per transaction - so long as you use their online platform. They have also said there will be no fee for the receiver in those countries. Good change ANZ.

THE WEALTH EFFECT
Westpac's Regional Roundup Report included this comment. "We expect house price growth of around 10.5% across New Zealand in 2016, with gains widespread across the regions except Canterbury. Rising house prices are generating a “wealth effect”, whereby property owners tend to spend some of their capital gain. This will buoy activity in many regions of New Zealand. However, we caution that this dynamic cannot be sustained forever, especially as much as the increase in spending is by increasing household debt." They say this is largely a consequence of low interest rates. They also say this is in addition to booming tourism and construction in most regions.

LOW RATES, HOT DEMAND
The latest Government bond nominal tender #571 for 2020s attracted five times the demand than was offered even though the average weighted accepted yield steady at a low 2.20%. Five times demand is pretty outstanding but it actually is the lowest level we have seen for this tender series since November 2015.

BIG BIKKIES
We published a report today that shows the real estate industry earned commissions exceeding $1.6 bln in the last year. Our new Housing Market Activity Report also suggests agents in Auckland may face a leaner winter this year.

CONSUMER NZ SURVEY SHOWS CONCERNS OVER BANK PROFITS
Consumer NZ says its latest bank satisfaction survey suggests 82% of New Zealanders believe the profits banks make mean they're overcharging their customers. Asked how their bank could improve customer satisfaction ratings, offering lower fees and charges was the top option picked by respondents. The survey also shows customers of NZ owned banks were more likely to be satisfied they were getting a good deal with 83% of TSB Bank customers and 65% of The Co-operative Bank’s very satisfied their bank’s fees were reasonable. At Kiwibank 45% of customers were also very satisfied on this measure.

Consumer NZ said as a group, the locally owned banks outperformed the Australian-owned ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac with 67% of NZ owned banks' customers very satisfied with their bank versus 52% of the Australian owned banks' customers. 

"WHEN, NOT IF"
Jobs ads lifted for a third consecutive month in April (seasonally adjusted) in the latest ANZ series, and they appear to have an accelerating upward trend. This data suggests that our labour market remains fairly strong. It is a question of when, not if, this flows into an acceleration in wage growth.

SLOWER TEMPO, GOOD RYTHYM
Consumer sentiment eased in May, though it remains quite positive. Buoyant sentiment remains a good sign for spending trends and the economy says ANZ.

LOWER PARTICIPATION
Australia’s unemployment rate fell slightly last month, mainly due to lower participation in the workforce amid political uncertainty before their July 2 election. The number of people employed grew by 10,800 in April versus 26,100 in March, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, less than economist’s median estimate of a 12,000 rise.

SWAP RATES RISE STRONGLY
Taking its cue from the strong benchmark rises on Wall Street early today, local wholesale interest swap rates rose in a steepening trend by +4 to +7 bps across the curve. NZ swap rates are here. The 90-day bank bill rate is also up, by +2 bps, to 2.37%.

NZ DOLLAR ADJUSTS
Our currency fell against the USD as the greenback made gains following the reaction to the US Fed minutes. The Kiwi dollar is now at 67.4 USc, at 93.4 AUc, and 60 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 71.4. Check our real-time charts here.

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43 Comments

Anyone seen this;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/80111541/landcorp-…

Is it really just that they can't (won't) sell it off, because the price of agricultural land would plummet?

So they bought and bought as a means to keep prices inflated and now they can't sell as the opposite would happen.

Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.

Frankly, this National Government to me seems like it has been highly successful in pumping up asset prices - and that's about all it's been highly successful at. What a bunch of turkeys.

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I believe you are spot on there Kate. I was also having a look through last night at rural land for sale and noticed a huge amount of advertised "price reduction" going on.
The slipping down the slope has become.

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Hollowing out other SOEs comes to mind beyond Solid Energy.

Read these three links in respect of Mighty River Power's financial affairs and tell me it ain't so.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/8325286/Geothermal-cle…

http://www.mightyriver.co.nz/Investor-Centre/Capital-Bond-Offer.aspx

http://www.mightyriver.co.nz/PDFs/PDFs/Mighty-River-Power-FY2015-Media-…

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For the sake of accuracy, is it time for the "National Party" to change it's name? Perhaps to "The InterNational Party"? A political party's name should be a reflection of it's actions and beliefs.

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Nah they need to change to the Stalin Party. They need a flag change to a red flag with a hammer and sickle. Stalin loved spying on people via tapped phone lines and the state knew best not the people.

They talk right with liberal catch phrases like "small government" then they add lots of regulations to increase compliance costs that would be more consistent with a centrally planned government creating jobs for their supporters. They seem to have lost their way.

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Yeah, jobs for supporters - worth mentioning that democracy down at the Canterbury Regional Council has STILL not been restored. Gotta get in as much water pollution as possible prior to giving the council back to the people.

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Just announced they are going ahead with stage 2 of the CPW scheme, with more government funding.

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2005, 300k cows in Canterbury last year over a million. Government want another 300k plus.

Good job if you can get it.

Dame Margaret, who lives in Hawke's Bay and attends Environment Canterbury for part of the week was paid $220,312 in the 2013/14 year, David Bedford $169,012, David Caygill $152,771, with other commissioners receiving slightly smaller amounts, taking the total to $1.04 million (the 2014/15 annual report with their latest remuneration is due out this month).

By contrast, elected councillors in 2009 received about $50,000 each.

http://ecan.govt.nz/services/online-services/monitoring/swimming-water-…

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Yeah, great job if you can get it - no accountability whatsoever;

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/303751/ecan-criticised-for-lack-…

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I don't get why the people of Canterbury have not kicked up a huge stink over that issue! Why is there such apathy to just accept a kick in the guts of democracy?

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It might have something to do with the level of council "ownership" the public actually feel.

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I reckon as a region they have been so done over by central government agencies and their insurance company mates, that they are a great mass of stunned mullets.

Friends of ours left Chch just after the second/fatal quake. As the breadwinner in that family is in the construction industry - they reluctantly returned for a transfer offered to him by the same large construction supplier who he left after the quakes. His wife recently commented on what a sick society it had become down there. Dog eat dog. No care for your fellow Cantabrian anymore - it's every man for him/herself and the attitude has infested school children as well. Her words: "it's a poisonous place now".

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Jezz, that's sad if true. I grew up in Kaiapoi and still have family there. The entire area I grew up in is gone including our family home of 30+ years. We never go down that Street now. Too heartbreaking. All those memories. I really feel NZders are pushed into the concept of individualism by our powers that be. "Divide and conquer".

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Yep - divide and conquer. I once worked in CG - moved into it from a long career in the private sector .. so I was a public service novice who was hired into a fairly senior management position. Another senior manager, fearing I might not understand how the public service worked, kindly explained divide and conquer to me. Seriously. That and the one about how to make sure to move the train quickly through the station. Seriously.

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Kate that is one point of view, a qualified yes and no to it, the place has the extremes of a US town now, the number of homeless you see at night is large on the streets. My wife came home from her meeting late last night and she said i would tell her off, it was biting cold last night and she saw a homeless man with dog in a doorway strategically placing himself between two restaurants most likely hopeful for some end of night generosity or food scraps at the end of the night, she gave him some money to get something warm and said it was good he was taking care of his dog. She actually came home crying...because she hesitated for a second worried what happened to that other young women at the weekend here. People care but as you know the environment, like in the US, does become compelling.

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Hi Kate,

It did go the stunned mullet way for a long time. Certainly petty politics as a priority no longer hits the radar after the first 300 earthquakes.

Although I have to say my experience on the personal front has been quite the opposite. Our neighbourhood really pulled together during the earthquakes and there has been a lot of private people taking care of people in my community.

Not to say the other does not exist, it most certainly does.

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Justice:

Your comment fails to understand the personal behavioural reponse of people who have had the essence of their lives ripped out from under them, leaving a sense of trauma that is difficult to understand unless it happens to you. It requires empathy and understanding

Then to have the CHCH council and central government utter plattitudes and promises to make the pain go away does not make the pain bearable. It simply increases the pain when the promises turn to dust and translate into lies which simply grinds them further into the abbyss of darkness

Activism, such as you suggest requires stability in life, engergy, a sense of wellbeing plus resources that can be channelled into protest

The personal strength has been eroded and the financial resources are absent. What appears to you as apathy or passivity, is simply resignation

If you haven't already done so,
I reccommend you thoroughly read the judgement in the case of Giddens versus IAG
http://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/embedded_images/Gidden%20…

In Andrew Hooker's article of 17 May 2016
http://www.interest.co.nz/insurance/81633/insurance-lawyer-argues-brute…

I read it right through - not pretty - but it brought justice

Sadly there are not enough electorates in ChCh for payback at the next election

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Yes, stunned mullets. But then there are those in affluent suburbs who were largely unaffected (in the pocket that is) and whose repairs seemed to happen much faster than elsewhere.

Nothing would please me more than to see National get an absolute trouncing in CHCH next election, but somehow I just don;t know. It's that part of the 'poison' I think my friend refers to - not a great deal of compassion for those still struggling. A kind of I'm okay - you don't exist. At least that is her impression having returned and seen first-hand the injustice and suffering of many still and the fact that the "I'm okays" (the ones with the strength) don't seem to be outraged.

I admit, her explanation shocked me, as she loved Chch before they left. Was heartbroken to leave but they did it for their kids, as they didn't want them 'getting to know' the true nature of the destruction. She and the kids flew out only two days after - her partner followed about a month later. She wishes they had never returned. It really is tragic.

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Given what you describe and what they were aware and why they left... make one wonder why did they come back...

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I actually think you're making one hell of assumption about me and my connections to the place! And the activism I'm seeking is in regard to Ecan so get your God damn self righteous facts straight! Like I said above, I spent 27 years of my life in Kaiapoi and CHCH. I understand fully what people I KNOW down there have gone through and still are in many cases. Got it!

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"A political party's name should be a reflection of it's actions and beliefs"

LOL, good one! That hasn't been true for maybe a hundred years.

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I say...Notional Government.

notional
ˈnəʊʃ(ə)n(ə)l/
adjective
adjective: notional

1.
existing as or based on a suggestion, estimate, or theory; not existing in reality.
"notional budgets for hospital and community health services"
2.
Linguistics
denoting or relating to an approach to grammar which is dependent on the definition of terminology (e.g. ‘a verb is a doing word’) as opposed to identification of structures and processes.
======================================================
Not a doing Government...so I think quite apt. You could add in Housing to those examples. above. As in ...Nothing Doing.

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.. try the 1%'ers party

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Here's another item I should have included. Another industry that is powering ahead, soon to be a $1 bln industry although it has just passed the $700 mln mark.

http://www.pipfruitnz.co.nz/News_and_Events?cms_584_param_detail=5226

The regions are far from being all about dairy, despite the column inches dairy gets.

Apples were 'only' a $350 mln industry in 2010. Its a fast path they are on.

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What a good story of 'local boys come good'!

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Apples are very cyclical, could have one more year left if they are lucky. Been a real boom though, great for the few family orchards that are left.

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An acquaintance took out 1500 apple trees a few years back as he could not get local pickers to do the necessary.

People were too picky to work in his high unemployment area. Should have waited for the influx of cheap labour, a Notional Government pastime.

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Yes, they have had three very good years in a row and are also in a phase of considerable expansion.
All in or check..?

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If true then a great deal of orchardists would be kicking themselves here in the Nelson/Tasman region as huge amounts have been ripped up and turned into new subdivisions and it's still happening. Since moving here in 2006 we have seen many disappear.

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Huge frosts this season in Europe will help. Land is so expensive the last land I know of in Hastings, sold for 90k a hectare, you can buy apple land in Oregon for a tenth of that. Huge plantings happening in Oregon, I heard of a trail block of of 7000 acres.

http://www.freshplaza.com/article/157370/Extreme-snowfall-and-frost-dam…

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Cheer up everybody, the FT has reported that TTP is a dead duck, no benefits for anybody.
Next, the Auckland RUB,s
What lunatic dreamed those up, ive just read some of the submissions.

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And while abolishing the urban boundary - how about also abolishing all the sub-zone definitions for residential intensification - just let the market decide where intensification will pay off in profits!!!!

If a three story block sets up next door - too ruddy bad. Get over it or move.

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And while we're at it - anyone seen this;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/80163373/housing-nz-should-kee…

Stop seeking profit out of Housing NZ and use the money to build more state houses.

HOW EASY IS THAT?

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Thanks for your links today Kate - I had not seen those articles.

So to be clear - our government will make about $118 million out of our social housing, that is not there to make money but to provide a social safety net, and use that (indirectly) to prop up our "investments" in agriculture? *Chuckle*

I would be against selling the farms personally but there is something bitter sweet about pulling profits out of the social arm to feed the investment arm...

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I tend to agree with the greens on this one, but from a different angle in that most of the people in state housing are either paid by the state or if working collect a subsidy from the state in WFF or accommodation. it is a huge money go round (tax payers money) that is hovered up employing extra public servants to administer.
if in a state house and collecting state funds why is that not deducted at the source

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I think WFF is an in-work tax credit - so it is money earned by an individual but that is "not deducted at source".

I do believe for some on WFF, the amount does exceed the tax that would otherwise have been paid (which is what I think you mean by a subsidy/transfer).

But generally agree about the money-go-round. Which is one of the reasons I've always been keen on the Big Kahuna.

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You're welcome! On selling Landcorp assets ...

In the old days they had another word for "selling the farms" - they called it a ballot. It was a way for young, aspiring NZ farmers - who had already proven themselves in the industry to get onto a property of their own. A friend of ours got onto one that way in the late 70s... a harder working and more deserving guy would have been hard to find at the time. Salt of the earth.

We need to grow a new crop of those, but with land prices the way they are - they only way to do it is to break Landcorp into bits and ballot it off to deserving individuals with the right skills and the right attitude towards farming within the carrying capacity of the land.

The presently outrageous land prices put the incentives in all the wrong places - and the result? More p*55 and s*!t in the rivers and cadmium in the soils.

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Now the real story is getting out (A MUST LISTEN!) :

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201801354…

So, JK says, if you're sleeping in a car - go to WINZ.

BUT, what he left off was, they will give you a loan and you can put yourself up in a motel.

So the Nats are not only "let them eat cake", but "in-debt them to do so too".

I truly believe we have never had a more cynical executive in the history of NZ.

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I agree Kate
The planning process is like guerilla warefare, street by street over an area the size of Auckland province for ever more.
And I say that because there is no logical conclusion, reminds me of the Treaty of Waitangi

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Good analogy! In fact, GREAT analogy :-)!

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ANZ did something good for me recently. Earlier this week I refinanced 3 loans with ANZ and they had offered a cash-back as part of the agreement. My solicitor requested the cash-back money with the settlement funds and ANZ paid it with the funds on settlement day. I've heard of another bank only paying their cash-back money to their customer up to 6 weeks after settlement.

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