A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; RBA signals more cuts, unexpected early Vancouver tax impact, Bridgecorp echo, 4% bond, LendMe loss, swap rates dip again

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; RBA signals more cuts, unexpected early Vancouver tax impact, Bridgecorp echo, 4% bond, LendMe loss, swap rates dip again

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. In fact, it seems unlikely there will be too many until the uncertain benchmark policy settings are revealed by the RBNZ next Thursday. Having said that, wholesale swap rates, especially for the 2yr are pushing lower, now down to just 2%.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.

MORE CUTS COMING
The RBA issued its Monetary Policy Review today and has hinted the cash rate will drop towards 1%, all but signaling another cut in the next six months.

UNEXPECTED CONSEQUENCE?
House sales in Vancouver BC are falling. In July, they were 3,226 which was -26% lower than for June and -18% lower than for July 2015. Metro Vancouver has a population of 2.1 mln. Auckland has a population of 1.5 mln and house sales showed a similar volume fall over the same periods. The average price for a detached home in Vancouver in July was C$1.57 mln (NZ$1.7 mln), up 38 per cent from July 2015. It may be too early to decide the impact of the recent 15% transfer tax on "foreigners", but the early indications are fewer sales at higher prices.

A $130 MLN ECHO
Some nostalgia for ex-Bridgecorp investors. The Fijian Momi Bay Resort project which they pumped about $100 mln into (and lost the lot) is finally complete and will open in early 2017. The new owners have spent about $130 mln on the project (FJ$190 mln.)

MORE CORPORATE DEBT
Wellington Airport confirmed it issued $60 mln of unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate bonds with a maturity date of 5 August 2024 today at a 4% yield. They have a BBB+ credit rating.

A BIG MARKET-MOVER
Tomorrow morning, check back here. The financial news will all be about the US July non-farm payrolls report. Analysts are expecting growth of +180,000 jobs. This is the sort of data that moves markets when it diverges from expectation. You will recall, this data was surprisingly strong in June (and unexpectedly weak in May).

LENDME RECORDS LOSS OF ALMOST $1.1 MLN
LendMe has posted a March year loss of almost $1.1 million. The licensed peer-to-peer lender, which launched last year, is effectively a start-up. LendMe's directors say they expect trading forecasts and current working capital to support the going concern assumption. But if trading is lower than anticipated the board has a number of initiatives currently in progress, including future capital raisings, to provide sufficient funds to enable LendMe to continue operating.

SWAP RATES SLIP AGAIN
Wholesale interest rates fell again today. The two year swap actually fell below 2% this morning but later rose marginally back to the 2% level. All these rates have fallen today with a flattening bias, with the 10 year down -5 bps to just 2.42%. NZ swap rates are here. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.25%.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
The NZD has continued to drift but is basically unchanged from this time yesterday. It is at 71.8 USc, 93.9 AUc, and 64.5 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 75. Check our real-time charts here.

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19 Comments

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Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

The RBA issued its Monetary Policy Review today and has hinted the cash rate will drop towards 1%, all but signaling another cut in the next six months.

Access to credit must be becoming impossibly tight without top draw asset collateral? Debt rollover risk must rising as well if ever lower cash rates are a necessity of RBA focus.

The European bank that would suffer the smallest capital loss in a recession is DNB ASA, Norway’s biggest lender.

According to the financial regulator in Oslo, DNB did so well in the European Banking Authority’s stress test because lenders in Norway have less leeway to reduce the share of assets against which they’re required to hold capital. To ensure banks don’t get too creative, their use of risk weighting is limited by a floor that Norway’s regulator says adheres more closely to the principles that underpin the 1988 Basel I standards.

Basel in 2004 adopted a new policy -- Basel II -- allowing banks to calculate their risks internally. It also imposed a floor to prevent capital ratios from dropping too low. But implementation varied from country to country, with some interpreting the floor as a minimum capital level while others, including Norway, have viewed it as a floor that limits the freedom of banks to use internal models to reduce their risk-weighted assets. Read more

Where are Australian banks (building societies really), with a primary focus on low risk weighting residential mortgage assets, placed when it comes down to stress test capital adequacy? Depositors need to know, given the RBA's obvious panic provisions to save borrowers from default.

Bank note hoarding is noticeable in the UK. Read more

"Depositors need to know, given the RBA's obvious panic provisions to save borrowers from default." Of course Australian depositors have a basic protection of $250,000 per person per financial institution (approx 100 such) in Australia. Spreading deposits across multiple banks provides widespread protection without the depositors having to do investigation of each bank.

Unfortunately depositors in NZ have no protection at all with our 4 main Australian banks, with prospect of losing a significant portion of their deposits under the unique RBNZ OBR scheme.

unexpected early Vancouver tax impact???

Really ? I thought that would be expected if you hit foreigners with a 15% tax. Surely the consequence of that is a drop in sales.

Also, do you agree that foreigners in Canada that would pay for this tax include foreign students and temp Visa workers? Not sure why you can't answer this one as you told me I was wrong before when I clearly wasn't. Simple yes you were right will suffice.

Foreign students and temp workers? Why they are just hardworking new kiwis contributing to our vibrant world class education and food preparation sectors. Allowing them a dozen houses each is the very least we can do!

Who says taxing foreigner does not act. Mr JK ......where are you and all experts who said that taxing non resident buyers does not help.

What more proof. Everything in NZ is signalling government but.................ministers in our government are the most intelligent people and also ONLY Intelligent people. So.....

It does not "work " in the polls.

Oh so tax on foreigners do work. Surprised.

Will be interesting to see experts comnents and article in mefia and on this webside. Cannot expect anything for national government as will rubbish it as nonsense or it does not apply to NZ as does not suit their motive.

Wouldn't work in Auckland because we dont have mainland Chinese tentacles all over our residential housing. Cue Tui billboard.

They know it works, that's why they won't do it.

Does anyone know if John Key is still alive?
It like Weekend at Bernies when he appears. Same ol recording"at the end of the day we will do nothing.."

My concern now is that as Canada and Australia have now applied stamp duty up to 15% on all foreign buyers (which includes students and temp visa workers )

Does this mean an increase in demand for NZ property from foreigners ?

We have the lowest purchase tax in the world. Why wouldn't they shift from buying in vancouver to Auckland especially as National has rolled out the red carpet...and the media are trying to deny there is a problem by talking about :
resident v non resident
instead of citizen/permanent resident v foreign buyers

You'd have to be a bit of a nonce to think those taxes would not put more pressure on our housing market

10
up

Per the latest LINZ report
8,751 foreign students and temp visa workers that bought a property and live in it
4,707 foreign students and temp visa workers that bought a property and don't live in it

13,458 total foreign student and temp workers purchases

13,458 × 1million average = 13 billion NZD approximately
(Assuming majority were auckland properties )

13billion spent with zero tax paid.
Are nz citizens that are struggling to buy their own homes happy about this ?

11
up

I don't know about kiwis struggling to buy but I know tnat there are 59 kiwis in Wellington that are happy with it and are basically destroying the future of NZ.

Short term gain, long term pain.

1billion a month. That's how much foreign students and temp visa workers spend on nz property
1,000,000,000 nzd
Remember linz report 13500 were foreign students and temp workers
13500 * 1m average = 13.5billion. Approx 1billion a month.

That's impossible. There were only 7,864 sales in the whole of the country in June. You seem to be claiming that 13,500 "students and temp workers" buy a property every month, ie 12 per year. That's 60% more than the total property sales of the entire country in a year. Are you now claiming a) they buy all properties on offer? and b) 60% of the aren't going recorded somehow? You are making stuff up to fit your conspiracy.

I suspect it isn't making stuff up, so much as mistakenly reporting quarterly figures as monthly. 13500 student/temp buyers per quarter, not per month. Divide by 3 to get ~monthly.

Slightly off topic but I think you'll find this article interesting David.

Panama Papers: Joseph Stiglitz quits as government adviser
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36992729

Mr Stiglitz and and Swiss anti-corruption expert Mark Pieth, who also quit, said government interference in their work amounted to "censorship".
"I thought the government was more committed, but obviously they're not," Mr Stiglitz told Reuters news agency. "It's amazing how they tried to undermine us."