A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; TD rate changes, AU bank inquiry to start, shorter home loan terms, more fraud, WMP futures rise, cheap bonds, debt binge, swaps up marginally

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; TD rate changes, AU bank inquiry to start, shorter home loan terms, more fraud, WMP futures rise, cheap bonds, debt binge, swaps up marginally

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

There were no changes today.

Co-operative Bank has raised its 6, 9 and 12 month TD rates by +5 or +10 bps. Also note we are now only listing ICBC's TD rates as their "internet" option. (Their Standard rates are lower.) And something we missed earlier in the week, ASB has cut most of its savings and call rates, generally by -25 bps.

There is to be an inquiry into Australian bank behaviour, but not a "Royal Commission". It will be run by their SME Ombudsman, and could very well result in new legislative restrictions on banks. Interestingly, the Ombudsman will have Royal Commission powers in this case. It comes on top of moves to summon the SEOs of the their big four banks to testify before a parliamentary committee once a year. The government has also increased powers for ASIC and promised to establish a tribunal to probe instances of poor financial advice. It seems bad [white collar] behavioiur has some consequences after all.

Emphasising the low impact of floating rates on home buyers, fixed rates now represent 77% of all home loans, its highest level since 2009. However, the amount of total home lending that will fall due within one year is rising (ie floating plus fixed that will become due within 12 months). It is now at 63.4% of all lending, its highest since June 2014.

Business confidence and firms’ own activity expectations were broadly unchanged in August, but stronger after adjusting for seasonality, ANZ said today. Together with firms’ elevated employment and investment intentions, the survey points to good times continuing for the economy. That said, pricing and inflation gauges remain soft they noted.

In contrast to the American consumer confidence data we reported this morning and the NZ data above, Chinese consumer sentiment edged down in August in a broad based deterioration which saw declining optimism toward personal finances, business conditions and the job market. On a more optimistic note, Chinese consumers reported a slight improvement in their willingness to spend on big ticket items. It is worth highlighting that respondents in the Northeast and Southeast of China experienced a noticeable deterioration in August due in part to the recent massive flooding.

The spike in crime stats reported in June eased back in July, with a pleasing fall in violent crime reported. But reported fraud just keeps on going up.

Futures trading in WMP today indicates a firm upward rise is expected in next week's dairy auction. At the last auction, WMP prices rose +19% to US$2,695/tonne. The futures market is now indicating prices of about US$2,885 or higher, signaling at least a +7% gain over the past three weeks. That would make about a +48% rise since the recent low in February.

But low dairy price stress is probably behind the theft of hundreds of dairy cows in the Ashburton area.

The Appeal Court has ruled the process used to acquire protected conservation land to flood for the Ruataniwha Dam in Hawke's Bay was unlawful.

Spark (A-) is issuing $125 mln of ten year "unsecured, unsubordinated fixed rate bonds" with an interest rate of 3.94%. Kiwi Property Group (NR) has issued $125 mln of seven year "senior secured bonds" at 4%.

Kiwis' debt pile grows at fastest rate since 2007. The imposition of new loan to value ratios by the Reserve Bank doesn't appear to be slowing the housing debt surge just yet.

Most of our time zone equity markets are making time today, showing no gains or losses. But the ASX200 is down sharply by -1%, and Tokyo is up sharply at +0.8%.

NZ swap rates have risen fractionally today, up +1 bp across the board. You can find our chart for all terms of swap rates here. The 90 day bank bill rate is also +1 bp higher, at 2.38%. The NZGB 2027 yield slipped -3 bps today. Also of interest is that NZ's sovereign CDS spreads are now -10% lower than for Australia. And Australasian corporate investment grade CDS spreads are as low as we have seen them in close to nine years.

Our currency is still at 72.5 USc which is where it was at this time yesterday. On the cross rates, it is at 96.2 AUc and 65 euro cents. The Trade Weighted Index (TWI) is now at 76, which makes it the ninth consecutive week it has hovered at this general level. Check our real-time charts here.

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Ruataniwha decision,
A small victory for the worms and a step forward for mankind...

JK will change the law, and allow it - enabling legislation of another Think Big, make asset owners rich, scheme.

Dairy cow theft - would have had to have been very organised.

Keep a watch on Trade Me!! And for cheap meat and milk at countdown.

Too lose over a third of your herd and only notice it once they started calving and coming in to the shed suggests some one wasn't very organised in keeping track of cows?

they need moving them to new paddocks every few days for feed so must have been an overnight operation.
also was ten truckloads.
so either something fishy or they are not far away, within 1hour at the most so truck could go back and forth

Hmmmm. 500 cows is a lot to shift, whether you're loading them in a truck unnoticed, or putting them through for slaughter. Quite a logistically interesting crime. Wonder if they're insured and what the debt is on the farm? Maybe they've been quietly stashed with an accomplice who'll get a cut of the payout. Of course the insurance fraud hypothesis is pure speculation on my part based on no evidence whatsoever, but if I was the investigator it is something I'd look into and want to rule out.

And where does NAIT feature in this? Presumably all 500 had a tag on the ear tying them to a location, and recorded in a database somewhere. If they've gone through an abattoir presumably the IDs will hook up at some point.

The more I think about this the odderer it gets. Too many for a homekill guy to deal with unless they're stashed in a field somewhere and killed a couple at a time, and even spread over a couple of months as proposed, you need facilities for hanging, chilling, breaking down, butchering, at least one chiller truck to get it to point of sale. If you put them through an abattoir then things like NAIT numbers are recorded and there's a papertrail. If you kill them all at once there's another logistical problem re storing it all until sale. How many chilled containers would you need to plug in in the back yard to stash meat from 500 cows?

The cows weren't insured from article. Mate of mine had to identify some of his stolen heifers a while back - they were grazing at the other end of the island. The idenfication trip was a logistics issue in itself let alone transporting a herd. It was only a tip off that got them back.

Interesting. In general terms, who stole the cows and transported them to other end of the island? Inside job? Quite a niche crime, really. Requires a bit of expertise and specialised equipment and contacts. And makes sense that they'd be more valuable relocated and kept as breeding/milking stock than slaughtered.

for me it keeps coming back to the number taken and logistics, ten or twenty happens all the time and might not be noticed for awhile but 500 from a herd of 1300, that is a lot of work and should be noticed very quick.
I am guessing being ashburton they are not sending some north through winter for feeding like they do on some farms down the bottom of the south island. unless a worker/manager has arranged and forgot or did not tell the owner then left on june 1st not of his choice

Wouldn't surprise me to find a disgruntled ex-manager involved in the heist.

Neighbouring dairy workers. Had the nous and contacts, knew the stock movements, quiet roads etc. so figured out best time to relocate stock. Would be difficult for a total outsider to rock up and flog that many cattle. 500 is a staggering amount.

Something odd is going on here, suspect there is more of this story to come.....

DC, Interesting article on Naked Capitalism re the Canuck hoosing market. Could it be the pin for our own Awkland bubble? http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/08/wolf-richter-fear-spreads-of-a-ho...

HAM - love it.

Will the national government have guts to act like vancouver and are they in a posistion to upset their overseas bosses.

Have doubts as their basic survival is based on them.