Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no mortgage rate changes today.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.
LOAN OK's SLIP
Local housing loan approval levels continue to slip. They are now running lower than at the same time a year ago.
PACIFIC OPTIMISM
Consumer confidence in China regained some ground in September, buoyed by an improvement in consumers’ expectations about their future personal finances. The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose +3.3% to 115.2 in September from 111.5 in August, reaching its highest level since June. This latest data reinforces the number of economic markers we noted this morning. And it comes on top of a strong rise in US consumer confidence which is now at its highest since the GFC. (Not forgetting New Zealand consumer sentiment is elevated as well.)
SQUEEZED OUT
Today's release on our Home Loan Affordability report for August shows that in Auckland it is not just the low paid who are being squeezed out of the City's housing markets, its affecting middle income earners too.
(LOCAL) DEMAND OVERHANG
New research indicates 484,000 people plan to get involved in the housing market in the next 12 months - with most would-be buyers.
AN ACCURATE PERSPECTIVE
In deeper current account data released today, we got a better understanding on investment flows. Of New Zealand’s $227.4 bln total investment abroad, 62.9% was in Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Of the $386.4 bln foreign investment in New Zealand, 58.3% was from Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Japan was New Zealand's fourth-largest inward ($11.8 bln) investment partner. It was also our fourth-largest outward ($8.0 bln) investment partner, moving up from fifth in 2015. The numbers for China? well, actually they are much smaller than most people think. New Zealanders have invested $2.9 bln in China, while Chinese companies have invested $5.5 bln here. That is 1.2% and 1.4% respectively (outbound and inbound). Not significant really. Makes you wonder about the motives for some of the shriller commenting about investment from China.
NZ COMPETITIVENESS IMPROVES
New Zealand has risen three places to 13th in the World Economic Forum's latest annual Global Competitiveness Index. The top three was unchanged featuring Switzerland, Singapore and the United States. Australia slipped one spot to 22nd.
GOING LOWER
We noted yesterday the sharp retrenchment in futures pricing on the NZX derivatives platforms. Today the reversal deepened. But who knows whether this is an accurate signal of the real auction market any more.
WHOLESALE RATES DIP
Across the curve, wholesale rates slipped -1 bp today, mirroring the international trend of lower yields (and higher bond prices). NZ Government bond yields are also lower. The 90-day bank bill is unchanged at 2.21%. You can find our chart for all terms of swap rates here.
NZ DOLLAR STABLE
Even after a currency market view that moved following the US Presidential debate, there has in fact been virtually no net move with the NZD. The NZD/USD is still at 72.8 USc. On the cross rates, it is trading at 95 USc, and is at 65 euro cents. The TWI-5 is 75.8. Check our real-time charts here.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.
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