Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The local branch of the Bank of India raised its 2 year TD rate to 4.00%.
CROWN ACCOUNTS IN BALANCE
The Government's accounts show an OBEGAL surplus of +$9 mln for the six months to December. This is substantially better than the forecast of a -$666 mln deficit. Collections from income taxes and GST are running higher than expected based on a better economy. Personal income taxes were +$34 mln higher, company taxes were +$24 mln higher and GST was +$173 mln higher than forecast. The total tax take is 27.7% of GDP while the net Government debt is now 25.5% of GDP.
URGENT NEED FOR MORE TOURIST ACCOMMODATION
It is not only residents who are finding it hard to get affordable accommodation. Tight accommodation caused by high visitor numbers is raising the demand for motels dramatically. In November there were 378,000 international guest nights spent in motels, +29% more than in November 2015. This is the sixth month in a row that international motel guest nights have been up more than +20% from the same month in 2015. Overall occupancy rates were 47% in November, but hotels were at 76% while motels are now at 67%. In the past the months of February and March peaked at these levels so pressure will be high in February and March 2017.
CONFIDENCE HIGH WITHOUT INFLATION
In today's ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey consumer sentiment continues to shine brightly; the headline index eased a tad in February while the seasonally adjusted estimate lifted. Glowing consumer sentiment augurs well for spending trends and economic momentum. Inflation expectations and house price expectations were largely unchanged.
CADBURY NOT SWEET ON DUNEDIN
US-based food giant Mondalez has today confirmed that the Dunedin Cadbury factory will be closed by the end of 2017 with the loss in the end of about 350 jobs. The company said it had capacity at its Australian factories so the Dunedin facility is not needed. Changing tastes for chocolate undoubtedly also played a part.
YIELDS UP SLIGHTLY
Today the NZDMO tendered $200 mln of 8 year Government bonds. The average weighted accepted yield increased slightly to 3.23% from 3.13% at the last tender last month. In September 2016 this maturity achieved 2.38%. The coverage ratio rose from 2.2x to 2.76x.
TOUGH METRICS
The Australian unemployment rate has fallen slightly in January to 5.7% s.a. (actual 6.1%) while their participation rate is now 64.0% (actual) and that is its lowest level in 12 years. In the past year employment 'growth' has been an uninspiring +0.8%. The number of full time jobs 'plunged'. (New Zealand has had employment growth of +5.8% in 2016. Our jobless rate is 5.2% and our participation rate is 70.5%.)
NOT IN ELECTION YEAR
Auckland mayor Phil Goff is disappointed the central Government has ruled out giving Auckland Council the ability to levy a fuel tax.
NOT REAL MONEY
Trading volume on China's major Bitcoin exchanges has plunged in the past week, since authorities there tightened regulation of the digital currency.
WHOLESALE RATES UP AGAIN
Following the rise in benchmark rates on Wall Street triggered by higher-than-expected US inflation data, we are getting higher swap rates locally today. The two year is up another +2 bps while the five year is up another +3 bps. The ten year is also up +3 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.04%.
NZ DOLLAR TURNS HIGHER
Against the US dollar we are higher today at 72.3 USc, a +60 bps rise since this time yesterday. On the cross rates we are a little higher too at 93.7 AUc, and at 68.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is now at 77.8. Check our real-time charts here.
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13 Comments
The Australian unemployment rate has fallen slightly in January to 5.7% s.a. (actual 6.1%) while their participation rate is now 64.0% (actual) and that is its lowest level in 12 years. [My emphasis]
Maybe, the cause can be attributed to easy access to prescription opiates?
For 60 years the labor force participation rate of 25-54 year old men in America has declined. There are many reasons for this existential decline, but Philly Federal Reserve President Pat Harker explained today during a Q&A session that he is concerned that more 25-54 year old men are out of the workforce and blamed "drug abuse" for the problem.
Says decline in employment of prime-aged men, between age of 25 and 54, a source of “significant concern”>
Opiate abuse is part of the reason for the decline in male employment in U.S., also “there are people who are just disconnected from the workforce” Read more
Well it's not drug abuse. In the US there is a serious lack of jobs and Fed would like to blame someone else for Alan Greenspan's 18 year disaster he calls a career. Contrary to pop culture gibberish drugs are expensive and you need a job to afford them. Where exactly would so many people be obtaining large amounts of money while they are looking for work? Perhaps Central Banks should be run by people who have trained in a science instead of economists.
Yes, a classic "blame the victim" scenario. Drug abuse for many are the consequence of a lack of jobs and the general hopelessness experienced by many in the US rust belt with declining services (incl schooling), hollowed out communities, (and bad water) to reinforce the idea that politicians don't give a damn about you. Alcohol, weed, opiates and meth are not that expensive and prices can drop; Dictator, if you don't have the cash then theft or burglary will pay the shortfall .
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/89380875/halfprice-methamphetami….
Although it is not directly relevant to this thread: however, for a useful insight into the terrible harm the US based "War on Drugs" has generated over the last several decades, please read Johann Hari's book "Chasing the Scream"
http://chasingthescream.com
Councils make it really difficult to build or convert buildings into hotels. Why bother it's hardly worth the stress or the risk that the Council will try to hold up the project just to pretend they are doing something useful?
I'm also not seeing the compliance documents that MBIE promised and failed to deliver. Maybe Nick Smith should be doing his job instead of being lazy and useless.
"NOT REAL MONEY
Trading volume on China's major Bitcoin exchanges has plunged in the past week, since authorities there tightened regulation of the digital currency."
So how is regulation proof its not real money?
The six characteristics of money are durability, portability, acceptability, limited supply, divisibility and uniformity.
Unfortunately Fiat money is not limited in supply so go figure...
Le Pen is on course to be France's next president, fund manager says from AI analysis
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/marine-le-pen-is-on-course-to-be-frances…
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