Election 2017: We bring you the key updates from the night's coverage; Comments are back on - share your thoughts here

By Alex Tarrant

National has won 46% of the vote and is in pole position to negotiate with Kingmaker Winston Peters, although the Labour-Greens grouping still has a chance to form a government with New Zealand First.

With 99% of the votes counted, Labour had returned 35.8% and the Greens 5.8%. New Zealand First was sitting on 7.5%. 

The Maori Party is out of Parliament, ACT returned David Seymour through Epsom - although he looks to be out in the wilderness now - and TOP missed out on the 5% threshold.

National Party leader Bill English said discussions would take place with Peters in the next few days. He said talks would be conducted on a basis of respect with Peters. He noted how NZ First had a number of predictable policies, but that they'd also announced a lot of positions over the campaign.

Meanwhile, the Left's optimism was being held up by Green Party leader James Shaw on election night. He told supporters that New Zealanders had voted for change by giving the three Opposition parties a majority - counting Peters in the tent. 

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern acknowledged English's higher vote. Despite looking more dejected than Shaw, she wasn't admiting defeat, saying that under MMP, it was now up to others to decide the make up of the next government - ie. Peters.

Our coverage from the evening is below.

Election 2017:

11:35: English is looking pretty happy. Two arms in the air as he gets up on the stage.

He says voters have given National the responsibility to form a stable government. Notes they've got more than 10% above Labour and more seats than Labour and Greens combined.

Then what we've been waiting for: He notes neither National nor Labour can form a government on their own. English says he wants to acknowledge the performance of Winston Peters and New Zealand First. Says the voters of New Zealand have give NZF a role in forming the next government.

English says they'll have talks with Peters over the next few days. But he says there's no rush.

11:00pm: Ardern talking to Labour party faithfull. She says she's called Bill English to acknowledge National has won the largest party vote. But says the result isn't known tonight. MMP means others will decide the make up of the government. She can't predict what decisions other leaders will make. Says she'll work with any party who shares vision to change New Zealand.

Interestingly, she raises when she met the families of the Pike River men - was this partly a call out to Peters?

It sounds like she'll be sticking around regardless.

The crowd I'm watching with are calling this 'the Tinder result' - which way will Winston swipe?

10:40pm: James Shaw is looking up. Addressing the Greens' campaign night, he says he's happy at the Greens' result. Says that the three Opposition parties command a majority together - and still will once the special and overseas votes come in. "New Zealanders have voted for change," he says.

He is going to speak with Jacinda Ardern tomorrow to sort things out. He also sends a message to Winston Peters: They agree on climate change and new railways everywhere, and finding ways to fix New Zealand's low productivity.

Shaw is being positive. Ardern when she left her house sounded defensive.

10:30pm: 90% of the vote is counted:

10:25pm: Te Ururoa Flavell looks shattered. The Maori Party are out - no electorate seats and a party vote just above 1%. He says the tide has turned and that the Maori Party is now at a crutch point.

Meanwhile, Peters is back behind in Northland.

10:10pm: Ardern says she hoped for better. When asked if she'll be PM, she replies that in an MMP environment it will be others who decide that. She hasn't spoken to Winston Peters tonight - and doesn't think that these conversations will happen for a while yet.

Here is the count at 85%:

10:00pm: Winston Peters has just spoken in Russell before catching the ferry back to Paihia. He says that on current numbers it looks like NZ First will hold the "balance of political responsibility" when the results are all in. He says NZF will not rush its decision on who it might go with - not today nor tomorrow - and that he needs to talk to his caucus and board.

He says NZF doesn't hold all the cards, but that they do hold some. Says New Zealand First will make its decision based on the interests of all New Zealanders, not just the party. He says if the results don't change between now and 12 October, then the decision should be made by then. 

Then an interesting comment. He pleads with his caucus to not say anything out of line to the media - "don't make comments that will embarass the party."

"All roads lead to Russell."

Then suddenly, Peters has got ahead in Northland as well.

9:45pm: Labour is at risk of not being able to form a government with New Zealand First and the Greens. At 70% of the vote counted, Labour is on 45 seats, NZF at 9, and the Greens tracking at 7 seats - giving the required 61. However, that's been tracking down from earlier in the night:

9:30pm: The results are really coming in now - we're at 60%. New Zealand First is Kingmaker, the Greens are tracking down, and the Maori Party is looking like missing out completely. ACT doesn't look like getting a second MP in on the coat-tails of David Seymour:

9:20: Keep an eye on the Greens.

They're tracking down as the votes come in. Below 6% now.

 

9:15pm: Jeanette Fitzsimons isn't looking too excited either. But she's looking at the silver linings - says everyone's talking about clean rivers, child poverty and climate change - at least...

At the moment a key number for Labour is whether New Zealand First ends up in front of the Greens - at the moment it looks like it. The thinking is Winston would be more likely to talk to Ardern if NZF is the second biggest party in a Lab-NZF-Greens bloc.

9:10pm: 45% counted. 

9:00pm: 40% of the vote.

8:50pm: Here we are at 35% of the vote counted:

8:40pm: On current counts, the Maori Party is missing out - they're not ahead in any of the Maori seats. Michele Boag says if the Maori Party don't get in, then this will make it easier for NZ First to go with National.

Peter Dunne is talking about Bill English potentially calling the Greens, as a way to play off Winston Peters. Mike Williams says that's fanciful. I've been trying to get out of Bill English whether he'd check in with James Shaw after the result is known as an alternative to Winston - he's not been answering over the last few days whenever it's asked. Says it's the Greens who have ruled themselves out...

Here we are at 30% of the vote counted:

Here we are with 30% of the vote

8:32pm: Matt McCarten is not looking too happy on TVNZ. Phil Twyford has just been on, saying he would have hoped Labour was higher than the 36% they're at, but that it's still early days.

Earlier, New Zealand First's Shane Jones was on. He wasn't letting anything out in terms of who NZF might go with - they're in Kingmaker position at the moment.

8:25pm: 25% of the vote counted.

8:15pm: Gareth Morgan has just done the interview rounds. On Newshub he predicted a landslide for National, I'm told. I was watching TVNZ. He said he was relieved that the campaign was over. He had hoped for a higher vote than the 2% TOP is tracking for, but is happy that they've challenged the incumbents.

He then launches into one about home ownership. The main thing is that we have a generation of New Zealanders that are making their wealth out of property through a tax break, he says. These people - himself included - are screwing younger generations. Until we change this. we run the risk that the younger generations now will be worse off than their parents for the first time in New Zealand.

Morgan is asked whether he'll lead TOP after the election - he's not sure - although he says TOP will still exist, he says.

8:05pm: Here are some key electorates:

Winston Peters is behind in Northland, with 8% of that electorate's votes counted. If he does lose the seat, New Zealand First needs 5% - at the moment they're looking at above 7%.

And in Epsom, David Seymour is up. This is one where there was talk of Labour and Greens voters ticking Paul Goldsmith...

8:00pm: 20% of the vote counted:

7:42pm: Here we are at 15% of the vote counted.

This is all happening very quickly. Steven Joyce is on the RNZ feed - saying he's naturally nervous and a little bit hesitant to put too much emphasis on the initial counts. He's asked about criticism that he's run a negative campaign with misinformation about Labour's policies, and "absolutely" refutes it.

No Maori Party electorate candidate is ahead at this point. This could be interesting if they don't win one...

7:37pm: TVNZ's Corin Dann says his statistician says he doesn't reckon the early-rural rule will apply so much this time around.

7:30pm: Here we are at 10% of the vote counted:

We usually get rural booths in first, so National is always generally ahead this early. Interestingly though, Labour's Tamati Coffey is ahead of Te Ururoa Flavell in Waiariki early on. This is a huge seat for the Maori Party. If they lose this, then they're relying on Te Tai Hauauru to get back in.

7:15pm: Winston Peters has just been on TVNZ. He says it's been an exhausting campaign, although he's had a nice day, he says. Asked whether he's confident, he's not taking anything for granted. Jessica Mutch asks him whether he'll keep us waiting if he is Kingmaker, he gets his usual bluster up. "I never did," he says. (No yaght this time around then?)

The writs aren't in until 12 October, he says, so there's no use allowing for any mistakes there, he says.

The other leaders are all keeping quiet until we know the result - Bill English has tweeted a video with him and a spagetti pizza.

7pm: Welcome. Well that was quite a campaign. It could go either way. Will it be National or Labour who come out on top? Will Winston Peters be Kingmaker? Can the Greens keep their heads above water? Will ACT and the Maori Party have any say in the next government? And how will Gareth Morgan's TOP go?

We're expecting a big clue before 8:30pm, as the advance voting stats come in - possibly as early as 7:30pm. This is for those who had already enrolled, then voted early - counting began at 9am. People who enrolled and voted at the same time will come in with the special votes, which come in with the overseas ballots on 7 October. The Electoral Commission is expecting results from 50% of voting places to be in by 10pm, and 100% by 11:30pm. However, we might know the outcome well before that, due to the numbers of early votes exceeding expectations.

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256 Comments

Vote for change, vote for Cowpat. Its not too late

It is too late.

Shit

If we behind you, do we get a pat on the head?

... do you want a cow pat on the head , Henry ? ... the Maori Party are wearing them right now ... ouch !

Here's a thought though : Why do we have the MMP threshold for a party set so high at 5 % ? ... after all these years , even the Greens flirted with falling below that figure ....

... I'd like to see it reduced to 2 % !

How much better would the next three years be if Gareth Morgan's TOP party had 2 members in the parliament .... they were the only group who kept their electioneering strictly on course , talking up their policies , talking up solutions to current issues ... even the mighty NZ Labour party went into this election with no policy on taxation ... none ... yet tiny little TOP had their's spelt out and costed to the n'th degree ...

Well done , TOP !

agree with you 2% or 3 % and get rid of thee coat hanger rule. we now have a MP that only .5% voted for his party, who does he represent ?
without the coat hanger rule, there would be no deal done

Yeah well, recommendations were made when we had the review of MMP, which were promptly tossed aside like gum wrappers by an arrogant Judith Collins

Labour will surprise as many students / youth have enrolled and voted same day in past week which will go down as special vote and will know the result later.

May the least dodgy win!!!!

Had to laugh at the intro. All warm fuzzies about how Bill is surrounded by friends, family and staff then casually mention Jacinda is home and nervously waiting on the results. A bit of impartiality would be nice.

Good on Winnie for slapping that over eager reporter down, too :)

I fit more on the right wing, and voted as such.
But I must say it has been good to see the renewed strength that Jacinda has given the Labour party.
Even if she is not prime minister when the dust settles, I hope she would do a good job of keeping the government honest.

She has done well to provoke more people to be interested in politics too, I'm betting that the number of votes cast is a lot higher than last year and it will be interesting to see if that translates to success for the Labour party.

The only thing I'm predicting is a result....... in the fullness of time.

Is Jacinda our Trump? Or is WP NZs’ Trump?
Will the polls & commentators be proven wrong?

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Depends what part of Trump you mean. Unashamedly lying is a National thing. Anti-establishment voting is for NZ First. Labour probably had the best rallies. Strange grooming would have been Peter Dunne, but he dropped out.

I voted for you, Cowpat

Everyone has gone quiet. Where are you boatman,ecobird? It doesn't take that long to make a cuppa.

making an early call, maori party look gone
so national have lost two support parties. Winston must be thinking about what he will demand

Pretty much tracking as per the polls so far.....but can NZF and the Greens stay above the 5% ?

Current vote counting is 65% from South Island

bit surprised about how slow the count is, i thought the early votes were supposed to be counted from midday, there was supposed to be over a million votes and we have not had them all counted at this time

Many of the Early votes will be Specials. As many enrolled at same time as voting.
Which won’t be counted for several days.

Shows most opinion polls are pointless.

A couple of the experts on TV3 reckon National may struggle to form a government if it drops below 46%. They'll certainly need Winston if the Maori Party doesn't make it.

So it still could be Nats plus NZF.
Or: Labour & NZF & Greens.

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Will there ever be a day when the majority of voters in NZ vote to make NZ a better place for all, instead of voting for their own self interest?

Nope!

No Gareth.

I favour the odds at the start of the new decade and beyond!

two things i dont like about MMP
the 5 % threshold, it should be lower, there are a lot of wasted votes, my choice 3% thats roughly 80-90000 people voted for them
and the if someone wins ( gets gifted a seat) they can bring people in even though they get below 5%

Completely agree. lowering this to 2 or 3 percent would also cancel out a lot of strategic voting where people feel they cannot vote for the actual policies they want as they may not make the 5%.

Greg O'Connor is just telling John Campbell on Radio NZ it's looking like another three years of the same. Although he's ahead in Ohariu.

comments from Janet Fittsimons. Miss her and Rod Donald.

A big disappointment for the Greens if, yet again, they don't make it into Government.

Yip another 3 years of accelerating green house emissions for NZ. Very sad.

You're obviously on a different planet... there is no man made global warming here and we're still wearing 3 layers. Maybe we need to increase greenhouse emissions!

You're obviously on a different planet... there is no man made global warming here and we're still wearing 3 layers. Maybe we need to increase greenhouse emissions!

You're obviously on a different planet... there is no man made global warming here and we're still wearing 3 layers. Maybe we need to increase greenhouse emissions!

Look at the science, the science tells us .....
Love science!

Try climate change instead

If they really care about the country, the Greens would strike a deal with National. Ball in their court.

how would that work, greens and national (farmers) would not mix

but personally i would like to see it

Greens will have to realise and practise politics as the art of possibilities, rather than rigid policies.

How can greens trust Labour as JA's first move, her first move, was to "take them out"!, her alliance partner

The Maori party did that, and it slowly vapourised their support. If a party doesn't have any integrity it's got nothing.

David Parker is predicting the gap will narrow between Labour and National but he sounds a bit disappointed. Predicts Bill English will try to claim victory tonight.

That would seem a bit premature, unless WP told him something no one else knows.

If 1.2 mln people voted early, and we are now just at over 1.1 mln votes counted, and the 46/36 N/L share holds for the next 100K votes counted, that must mean that early voting favours N. And that the hoped-for 'youth-quake' won't pay off for L/G this time around.

Why won't young people vote? We all talk about housing affordability being a key frustration for them but maybe it isn't. Strange. Then again, housing affordability is almost exclusively an AKL issue, so perhaps young people in the rest of the country are happy that they can afford a house and they are supporting the status quo by voting N or not bothering.

We need to find a way to fix the 'not bothering' attitude.

Then again, 'young people' don't stay young. In one or two election cycles, they are 'normal' voters, voting in a largely conservative pattern, it seems. And voting with 'normal' engagement.

The chance any party can get them when they are 18-25 is fleeting. A lot of work to do on youth engagement.

David, my son (age 19) and many of his friends voted early and as special votes and many of them voted labour.
It's not a done deal for National

looking at the stats from last election it was 23.23% did not vote or 729560 people that did not vote. a big percentage were people under 30, it will be interesting to seen if the stats change or are the same this time
http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-result...

as an aside that means we have a minority of eligible voters determine who should lead us, we can only assume those that dont vote would have voted as per the final results and it would not have changed much, BUT i have sene stats that show younger people vote more to the left and as people age they start to go right

Can you believe it - The Youth-Quake and Labour's self-sabotage

Students being interviewed in Dunedin, having enthusiastically attended the Youth-quake rallies say they do not want free tertiary education and voted National

Labour mis-read that one completely and put so much effort into it

IF the youth voted National as RNZ claim, so be it, at least they engaged and voted. Dunedin overwhelmingly went Labour, and Christchurch switched to Labour, despite National having fixed the city so well...

Not my claim - just reporting the facts of what was stated live on Radio NZ last night

Fair enough, comment cheerily amended to reflect.. .

"The chance any party can get them when they are 18-25 is fleeting. A lot of work to do on youth engagement."

Yes it's certainly a challenge. Seems many youth would rather enroll for a new iPhone than enroll to vote.

At this point Bill English must be pleased.

A fourth term in Govt is no mean feat - if the cooky crumbles National's way.

I wonder what Winnie will demand? Deputy PM I guess??

It is possible for WP to join Labour & Greens together for 62 seats. Another option.

He'll want some cuts in immigration and some Northland pet projects

Tau Henare on Radio NZ says Winston might want the Marsden Point railway line and Auckland's port shifted.

Winston will compromise and accept a rail link however it would be amusing to see Auckland port area replaced by restaurants and apartments. Manufacturing would follow the port and move north and/or south and Auckland will become a wasteland of ticky tacky houses and fine dining restaurants.

Whatever happens Northland is in for a prosperous future.

That's funny you say that. I had been thinking if my company was successful I would love Auckland as base. But with costs it would be better to move south.

Friend is similar in London, he moved from Chancery Lane to Surrey, said best decision he's ever made. Reduced stress levels by a large amount.

Those seem like palatable things for Labour to agree to, unless they want to be the perma-opposition.

He will take all the "gimme's" John Key left for him.

- Lower super age back to 65
- stricter controls on foreign students.
- reign in immigration in general.

and the bonus now that the Maori party are out, get rid of the Maori electorate seats.

Gareth Morgan is attacking property investors on TV3.

Good.

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On TV1 at the moment. Am I the only one who thinks Mike Hosking is a prize wanker? He should just shut up and allow the rest of the team have some input; they are capable of providing intelligent commentary that is beyond his shallow perspective.

Watch 3. At least Gower and Garner are funny

Yeah watch three.much better

It took him more than 45 minutes to even introduce his guests. Narcissist

Any reasonable person thinks MH is a prize wanker.

Radio nz coverage was excellent.

Principal Skinner thanked the rorters for spending $800000 on the Act campaign to only receive a gifted seat from the right wing dotards du jour!
Go GDP! Lol

Congratulations Bill English and team.

Winston still behind in Northland. RNZ panel talking up Labour still being in it. I wonder though if National holds its current position, whether Labour has the moral authority to try to form a government? Duncan Garner reckons Greens could/should consider going with the Nats.

Of course they are still right in it Gareth. The moral authority question is a good one though, and something Winnie will consider surely - or maybe not

What's this "moral authority " stuff. Is it real?

Yeah.

It is in the minds of old voters who haven't moved on from FPP

It’s rubbish. Whoever has a grouping of 61 has the ‘moral authority’ .

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Cuts in immigration. No foreign buyers of property. Get rid of education rorts.

Good start. Jacinda mentioned all these. I don't care which party he goes for though as long as these are his non negotiables

depends on what they dangle in front of him, PM for six months and all those bottom lines are gone

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I voted for him. If its all WinstonFirst and not NZFirst he's dead to me. He might as well not go up for election next time. I've swung from National because of immigration and property prices. So if its more of the same old might as well voted for Labour. I want Winston to be a conscience.

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Many voters did exactly this, voted for NZF because they're sick of the overseas student scam where they come in, study for a diploma (which they're guaranteed to pass), get a job at a service station and then get permanent residency. Plus the foreign buyers and the dirty dairying.

All the while Joyce and English denying it with smirks on their faces. Just hope Winston isn't in it for Winston and actually does put the country first and deals with these rorts.

NZF is all Winston first, you actually acknowledge that yourself by saying you voted for "him" rather than "them"

I believe another of Winston's policies is to do away with the Maori seats. Interestingly with Maori Party gone this could be good for National.

Those are just electorate seats, and have not had any impact on the numbers of each party in parliament this time around.

Looking a lot like a replay of the UK election. Big surge of support for the Red Team, small drop in support for the Blue Team, but incumbents hanging on by their fingernails.

Winston is asking for patience. Says NZ First will make a decision in the best interests of the country.

Meaning: he has another option other than propping up a 4th term Govt.

Paula Bennett upbeat on TV3 but not quite claiming victory. Nick Smith has won Nelson.

Tv3 referencing Jerry Mateparae on the issue of moral authority. No such thing. They paraphrased him , bring quantity and clarity to form a government.

It looks like the total number of votes cast will be 2,215,000. Given that there were 3,252,269 enrolled, that must mean that more than 1 mln enrolled people didn't bother to vote ? Surely it can't be that high ? Only 68% participation ? Yikes, that is low. Certainly no 'youth-quake'. Amazing (and not in a good way).

That is a massive failure of get-out-the-vote efforts.

Final count on the night looks like we're missing 1m+ enrolled voters, practically a third of all voters, either they didn't vote or some of them have gone in as special votes?

Shaw announcing the new 3 Party Coalition Government now

He is really talking it up, isn't he? There's been a vote for change he says and talks up policy similarities with NZ First.

Good leadership on display from Shaw.

Gee it looks like, the two are acting like, as if Shaw is leader of Labour and JA is leader of the greens.

looks like a similar turnout as last election, early 70's %, maybe lower than the last election ?
so i would not call it a vote for change election

Could we see a minority Govt.

National hold power
Winston on the cross bench
Labour/Green in opposition.

Why has national only have 17 list seats with 46 percentage of the vote and labour has 16 with 36pecent. Then greens with 6percent have 7? Is there a scale system?

It takes into account electorate seats.

Say you get 50% of the vote you are entitled to 60 seats.
- If you get 30 Electorate seats then you get 30 List seats.
- If you get 50 Electorate seats then you get 10 list seats.

and its a shame its not truly proportional, you have a lot of wasted votes that get no seats and a seat given to someone with not much support
TOP and the maori party have 70000 people vote for them with no representation.
yet act get a seat with 10000

Is Jacinda implying that she is happy to be in the opposition ?
She is talking as if she is campaigning for 2020...

It didn't really sound like she expects to be forming a government.

Its like she knows something we don't. Yet.

It's a bit of a worry.

Labour have had 9 years in opposition, and have not come up with a single plan.

Will another 3 be enough to get something together?

The biggest problem we have is not the Government, it is the weak opposition

... in less than one year , the TOP party came out with an amazing array of policies ... congrats to Gareth and his team ...

NZ Labour have had 9 years polishing the opposition benches ... and still come into this election with no coherent tax policy .... how utterly ridiculous is that !

maybe thats not a bad thing, gives here time to fine tune policy, build on what she has achieved, whilst national need to regenerate, too many old faces

Winston supplying confidence to National for some gains towards his demands ?

Someone has made the point that now the Maori Party is gone National can offer Winston his referendum on the Maori seats.

Politically it's a masterstroke. 7 less seats in Parliament, and all of the losers are Labour.

Wouldn't be surprised if that is one of the first things they announce.

Assuming the majority vote for it .

You would have to think the majority would. It's pretty damming when the two "Maori" parties Maori and Mana can't win a single seat in their own electorates.

The good thing with MMP is that it represents minorities well (although could do better by dropping the threshold a bit). Extra targeted seats should not be required.

So the white majority vote down the brown Maori seats by weight of numbers. I think the only referendum could involve those on the Maori role otherwise it will just be a racist vote.

Utterly, utterly agree, this vote should be for those on the Maori roll only. As long as there are people in this country who have no intention of making themselves familiar with Maori Kaupapa and Tikanga Maori, as long as there are people in this country who do not believe in righting historical wrongs, then specific Maori representation will be required in this country.
As a pakeha, if the foolish decision is made to do this and allow all to vote on it, the I declare here and now that I will in favour of their retention

Interesting, look at the commercial scale post settlement, that power has to drive some poltical view. Where is it!

Very good point. As some one of Maori descent I just cannot understand why each tribe has not put together a party to go in each electorate.

For example - Ngai Tahu could go from an outside lobbyist to having an MP in the mix if they only stood someone in Te Tai Tonga.

I will say it until I am blue in the face, MMP is simply not understood in this country.

It's clear MMP is still misunderstood.

Labour wouldn't be losers as these are Electoral seats. They would get same number of people as it based on party vote.

Quite correct.
Maori would be the losers.
And really, given how much they are losers in pretty much everything else, except of course the really bad stats, it is no surprise.

"Maori would be the losers."

There were something like 25 Maori MPs (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/293124/year-of-mixed-fortunes-for-maori-mps) in Parliament before last night's election.

It appears to be a similar number today, although the party spread is clearly different.

That's about 1/5 of the total make up of Parliament.

Maori are very well represented. To the point, it is clear that simple political representation is not fixing the issues.

Until we own up to our own problems and take responsibility for them, we won't fix anything, no matter how many MPs are in Parliament.

and there wouldnt be7 less seats , as the maori rol lvoters would have to be accommodated in general roll seats.unless you increase the size of the exisitng electorates.

Not a bad one to lose. Labour can sit In opposition and watch this country implode over the next 3 years which it will do and then change things for the better

er, really? Check the comments here following the 2014 election. That is exactly what some said that time. (And in 2011, if I recall.)

True David. I would give the formation of a government on the left a least an even chance.

2011 was when national changed the rules that overseas investors could buy existing homes and 2014 it was full speed. 2017 overseas investors have been stopped and the market has been dropping under national for over 6 months . And depts through the roof. Housing is going to be completely different to 2011 and 2014. There’s even a good chance overseas investors will leave in mass . Then there’s negative peters to overseas money. Yes 2017 will be different alright

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National can import hundreds of thousands more voters over three years and achieve a 5th term. They've already got the Chinese spy! NZ is a Chinese colony now.

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You've touched on something there, I reckon immigrants are now influencing our politics. They will have scant concern for Maori in particular.

So, house prices going up soon ? In Auckland ?

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Might as well have a referendum to rename it to New Beijing.

Well ur right, Aucklanders really can't look after themselves. Time and time again. People from elsewhere are needed to operate the joint. Put the mgt contract to either a group from Ashburton or Singapore.

Smokey. Yeah next week everyone selling there house will put it up by 20%. Only thing is they’ll have to sneak a few $100k to the FHBers to buy it because the banks won’t give them the money. The focks with the expensive houses trying to sell might pay to post half a million to china so they can buy

TIME TO SUCK THE NORTHLAND KUMARA AND ENJOY THE RATS NATIONAL.

Bill's definitely got the best speech.

Pity we are all still screwed.

The real winner tonight..Steven Joyce.

... he made up the mother-of-all lies ... the $ 11.7 billion " hole " in Labour's budget ... and stuck with it ... and he got away with it ...

Jacinda's fault for muzzling her attack dogs , Kelvin & Robbo ... should've allowed them to let rip back at Joyce and Wild Bill .. the Gnats smear tactic worked beautifully for them ..

Anyone count how many times Bill said 'strong and stable government?'

I think they must be panicking.

I think you are right.

Snap election in well within 3 years??

agreed -- about June next year - just after the tax cuts take effect! leaving Labour in a terrible choice of another U turn or admitting they will raise tax - Greens and NZ first already voted for them -

not a bad choice for BE - get a supply and confidence deal only with NZ first and do nothing radical until May - then force a new election

I don't get this moral majority crap. Fpp hangover. The coalition with majority controls Parliament.
Honestly I don't get what voters see in national. The country is no better than it was 9 years ago. We're still down the bottom of the oecd on per capita income.

Many vote with their wallets. 46% at least are doing ok.

46% are from overseas and greedy you mean, be truthful

Plenty in the comfort zone who are doing fine

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Too true. It's difficult to watch those at the bottom struggling at the expense of those who are in the comfort zone.
The maori party found out their voters have had enough.
If anything I should be a natural fit for the national party. Comfortable middle class. 6 figure income.
Even though I am not religious, ive always lived by the credo that there, but for the grace of god, go I.
It's a true measure of our humanity how we treat those less well off than ourselves.

And from another non religious person, amen to that.

The other way to look at is that people Voted for change. Government got 59 seats and opposition got 61 seats.

Winston Peter main issues are IMMIGRATION AND FOREIGN BUYERS so..........

There is some hope. Not much, but some.

Any government with Winston will be a vote for change.

With Natiinal stability will be a question mark as they hate each other and even if they marry will divorce soon as also their policies are pole apart.

Is this the change that Winston Peter campaigned for.

Wait and Watch

The seats may change as special votes are counted. Immigration and foreign buyers should be "bottom lines" or so we pray.

Well, if there is any honesty they will be. I think NZF voters will be very, very upset if they drop those two things as I think they might be 1 and 2 in importance for them.
Winston will be gone next election, maybe will not last the 3 years, he is looking very wheezy to me, and if NZF do not come up trumps with a number of policies, they, like the Maori Party will be consigned to history. The one that I, personally, will miss will be the Maori Party. Dr Lance O'Sullivan was going to join them next election.

I do agree, I still don't think MMP is fully understood/utilised here. The ideal is that we have 10+ parties all with 5-10% of the vote, they nominate a PM, then vote on each issue according to their individual mandates.

At the end of the day national and labour lost. Nz first won. By the time peters is finished with them whoever he goes with will be shot down in flames. I’m not sure which would be better in a downturn because a downturn is coming whoever gets in. I think labour and Jacinda would be better of passing on this term and leave national and peters to it because they’d then be very strong for the next election and somehow I think Jacinda is thinking that way. With the way the economy is tracking labour should stay away from it and look so much better specially because she’s only just there new leader but she’s had a monster of support. Jacinda tell peters on ya bike. Think of the future. Let them try and fix this mess specially with peters demands on overseas ownership, immigration. Affordability. National will be gutted . Theres a winner already. PETERS. And the party that goes with him comes second

Part of me thinks that as well.

Agreed.

"Let them try and fix this mess specially with peters demands on overseas ownership, immigration. Affordability."

If you think those things are only going to make the problems worse, you might be wrong about the problems. All the businesses that depend of bringing hordes of low skill, low wage labourers in to make their books balance need to come up with a new business plan, and any government that needs those same hordes to inflate GDP, because they've done bugger all to incentivise productive investment and increased productivity, and who depend on foreign dollars (with strings attached) to keep the faux-economy plodding along, needs to come up with a new plan for governance.

While he's at it, WP should demand revised residency and voting regulations.

I don't think national are capable of the progressive thinking required to solve this problem or any others that require out of the box thinking.
Their voters are conservative by nature and thinking of this type of thinking scares the bejeezers out of them.

Progressives see problems where there are none, and their 'solutions' solve nothing, and generally tend to have the opposite effect which would be funny if they didn't tend to double down every time their ideas backfire.

Inthecentre - enlighten me as I think that's typical Labour hype - I haven't heard one progressive peice of thinking from Labour throughout the whole campaign other than raising taxes and spending - progressive thinking from Southern Europe, and experts in how to implode an economy and achieve 50% youth unemployment. Whereas I do think the likes of English's programs to try and solve generational welfare and poverty are actually thinking outside of the box.

Peters may surprise by not joining the govt, but extending support as exchange for some of his policies to be implemented. This may be his swan song. He is good for the locals, seniors, etc. Unlike Trump he is a very experienced politician, been Minister before a few times. Not a fool, certainly.

So, what are the main reason NZF voters vote for them. I am guessing (as I am not one) that first and foremost is immigration numbers, which of National and Labour (and the Greens) have any agreement with NZF on that? I am also guessing that the next highest reason is sale of houses and land to foreigners, which of National and Labour (and the Greens) have any agreement with NZF on that?
I am sure Winnie will be very, very aware which of his policies he can safely dump, which ones he can negotiate on, and which ones are carved out in stone. Can you see the Nats conceding on either of the two issues above? Me either.

His policies are definitely more aligned with the left block.
Given the triumphal nature of bill English, where he could barely disguise his glee, how much of a come down would it be if Winston went with the other lot.
It came across to me that bill English basically implied that Winston could only really go with national.

I like labour and peters and think they’re better matched . I just think peters will go with national. And labour would be better of waiting for the next election because housing won’t do well over the next 3 years and the economy relies on it far to much. Add to that peters demands and they’re negative to housing and even tho I think in time lower house prices would be good the getting there won’t be

It is wishful thinking imagining NZF will ever get into bed with the Greens.

In my case, yes to the first paragraph. I don't care a whit about GST on 'basic foods' and other trivial stuff. And yes, it seems like these would be a hard sell for National since it would amount to a repudiation of everything they've (not) done about the Grand Rort that is recent immigration policy.

well... actually everyone has spoken and it is up to the politicians to decide which way to go .....the majority seems to have a clear direction , however there will be tweaking and corrections along the way and that is not a bad thing >>> two more weeks to go lol...

The rights strength is the fact that all it components are contained within one party. It is also it's greatest weakness.

the majority of voters have not picked that, we have a MMP government and the majority of votes were not for national but lots of other parties.
i have said for months national does not have partners, they are a lone church,
i feel sorry for all those 70K TOP and maori party voters that have no voice to represent them

Excellent result for China.
Welcome New China Citizens

Welcome New China Citizens !

Yes! please welcome!

I think you must have had some of what bill English had been drinking just before he slurred his way through his speech.

I was really worried about him health-wise on that score. I definitely don't think he'd been drinking and the slurring was even more pronouced in the on-air interview following his speech. Hope he's okay.

Out for the day and my phone’s battery died before results started coming in so am only now able to digest the results and comments. Pretty much as I thought in that Winston will ultmately decide who is PM and I expect it will take a few weeks until we have that certainty. I hope WP chooses National and equally hope that the next three years sees a shakeup in Nationals line up. They need to retire the likes of Smith, find an heir apparent for BE and work on the points that Adern chose to attack in the campaign. If she survives another 3 years as leader, then she’ll be wiser and more of a contender, albeit I wonder how much use relentless optimism is in opposition? It made Little look permanently angry.

On a personal front, being on this forum in the last few months has given me a desire to get more involved in politics. I’ll join the National Party as it’s ‘my tribe’ and I can best influence the direction of policy by being part of the machine rather than keyboard warrioring here. I’ll still visit here to see where thoughts are at. Kate, keep up the posts!

Learn Liars Poker - you will go far

Good job, the country needs more Uber drivers voting National. ;)

Ex Expat - trust you speak the lingo.

Ex Expat - trust you speak the lingo.

Can we get back to talking up Houses, Please.
And I do not mean the Houses of Parliament...I mean the Houses that Parliamentarians all own....

Rentals for 'Dear Leaders"

Nowt changed there...in this election. Seems like it never will.....Poor New Zealanders...back in the Dog House...The shite House and the Rental House....All change, no Change...

One rule for the workers, one rules for the Shirkers. And Land Bwankers one and all...Doesn't change one. thing.

50/50...do not count at all. Winnie the Poo, holds the balance ...in cheque.

MMP ...Best vote with yer feet...Sorry NZ.....Sorry State of Affairs. All change, no Change..

With Winnie able to go either way, that increases his negotiating power hugely. So he may be able to get immigration cut back, he may be able to ban foreigners from buying existing homes, he may be able to get the retirement age held constant.....I hope.....and moving the port to Whanga is a nice idea, much better than the blinkered Auckland centric study which would either require the biggest most massive stone breakwaters the world has ever seen off the west coast or conversely the most dredging that world has ever seen for the firth of Thames option.

Oh, could not agree more with your comments about ports, imagine the firth of Thames if that were to be considered, it would obliterated in terms of a holiday and recreational area.

Apparently, Tauranga already takes far larger ships than any other port in NZ- Auckland included; has the biggest infrastructure and.. Winston knows all of this from his time as the sitting member there a few years back. No need to reinvent the wheel, Winston?

but it gets let down by the rail link, time after time.
it needs to be double tracked all the way to the tunnel to increase numbers moved

Yeah, great result. Now, Winston do not let us down, remember we voted for you because of immigration and foreigner buyers, even if you have to let go of all your other policies and please forget about the GST nonsense.

My first time voting in NZ and as I only just became eligible to vote in September mine would have been a "special" vote.
2.41 million voted in 2014 and that included 300k special votes. So special votes were 14% of the total voting electorate 2014. Some are suggesting specials will be higher this time. So the current results are provisional. When are the final results confirmed? Or do parties just assume that the specials won't be significantly different enough to change anything?

As for the results. The NZ voter demographic shows the biggest age group to vote are 65-69 year olds. Followed by 60-64, followed by 70+, followed by 55-59. This age group have voted for their own interests unsurprisingly. They want financial security and Labour didn't do a great job of presenting that age group that. National created and led the narrative on economic stability and frankly, i'm surprised Labour did as well as they did.

However, if the economy does slow down or even contracts in the next few years, then that narrative might change.

The official final tally will be published on the 7th.

the final numbers are confirmed on the 7th and normally favour the greens they will likely pick up another seat off national.
looking at the results so far
the number of votes for labour, the greens and NZ first are greater than last election, while national are down 130K.

Well it ended up all hanging with Winston Peters as predicted despite the usual suspects on this site saying he was dead & buried.

I predicted he would get close to 10% of the party vote which he was well short of but never the less he holds all the cards.

Are National regretting releasing his personal information on he super application.

There is a huge possibility of Winston going with Labour and the Greens, Shaw has already extended an olive branch.

Agree. Those saying it is much more likely Winnie will side with the Nats are wrong.
It's a 50/50.

just watched him this morning, i am picking he will wit until specials and if labour greens pick up two from national on the specials he will go with them.
ps gave it to david Seymour which made me laughed
"how can one person be a team"

Jacinda should wait. She will be PM in 2020. The good thing for Labour is they've finally got a good leader instead of some union elected stooge.

delboy, and also, the NZ economy looks to be on the downturn, so with National in this term, they may well get to reap what they have sown. It would have been awful if Labour got in, shortly followed by the recession that they did not cause, and then get blamed for it in the voting populace eyes, who would not ever be enlightened of the context thanks to the shallowness of NZ MSM.

Unless Winnie says so National is not the government. Wait and see time.

The people voted and majority by far voted for a National.
Getting up to nearly half the vote sends the country a message that they were not convinced by the BS that Jacinda was spitting out.
It would be just so wrong if the NZ government could be formed by 3 parties who performed so much inferior to National.
Would you really call that democracy?
MMP really needs to go as it is ridiculous every election where they have to grovel to each other to form governments.

Largest minority voted Nat.

The Man - we left first past the post long ago. The left block got close to the rightblock and will likely get closer with special voted

It is not close .. face reality.

Fat lady's not sung yet, special votes still to come. NZF are they left or right? Discount them from either side and you have National/Act 59 seats, Labour/Green 52 seats as they stand, maybe another 1-2 shift to add on after special and overseas votes are counted. IF that pans out like last time with 1 off National and you're looking at National/Act 58, Labour/Green 53 - that's pretty close in my book.

Um, 46% to around 42% and the gap could close.
And Winnie could go either way
Not close?

after specials it could be 56 to 54 very close.
i class labour and greens as one larger party split into two different churches, they are very very close on policy
and as national have said all campaign a vote for the greens is a vote for labour

Yeah. Some people here do not understand MMP

Or maths by the look of it.

Don't let maths get in the way of nonsense!

Heh! Lies, damn lies, and National.

If you could be objective Labor and Greens are different parties and you are comparing them to National total, and even then National still 0w3n7 them.

Everything will be speculation till special votes are counted and may narrow the lead slightly.

Everyone voted for change and not to forget that national have lost the majority.

Not sure how you can say that everyone voted for change?..
The Greens and NZ's First Seat numbers are both down!

Ssshh, humour him/her. This forum is an echo chamber for a dozen or so lefties. A few of which have been posting vote for change for weeks now, not realising they have no one to influence.

Wow, talk about not accepting reality

Change, like bankruptcy, often arrives very slowly - then all of a sudden! For instance....
"The British 52% that voted Leave, that has become 68% in the face of Brussels truculence, tend to add in research, “So can we just get on with it?”

I partially agree with the sentiment, not your example - https://www.businessinsider.com.au/opinium-poll-support-for-a-second-bre...

Its not over yet; There are still 380,000 special votes to being counted, The Electoral Commission will finalise the vote count, including specials on October 7.

If they all went to Labour/Greens would that be enough for them to form a government?

Thanks, that's a no then (just)

Well if National do stay in power, it still won't stop the Auckland housing market for declining but the irony is that we will probably all have to pay extra tax to subsidize Auckland FTB's and to help keep our property prices up.

It’s extremely rare for any government to stop a downturn once it’s started. Did national stop the downturn in 2008. And this one is more targeted to nz. We made it. Depts and house prices are extremely high. Overseas seas investors are the key to this hole boom. Now there’s peters who is more in line with labour. The election is a disaster. In both cases house prices go down which in the long run will be good and if labour doesn’t get in with there very popular leader they look very good in 3 years and with a better starting point. The demand for housing might pickup a little in 3 years . The big question is how much do they drop with peters. Did you hear his speech and point. ALL NZERS. After thinking more about peters speech and the greens and Jacinda I’m not sure about the outcomes because she knows to well she’s only been in for 7 weeks so after 3 year downturn if she holds her party strong and I’m sure she will ,shes in for sure. 3 years of downturn with peters or wait. Labour’s in the best seat for a long future and young leader for sure. After those two speech’s I’m thinking 70/30 peters with labour but I hope not. Labour should be thinking 3 years of national with peters and that disaster then 9 years in. All tho 3 years of labour and peter in the end would be good for ALL NZERS so voting in 3 years you would think would still be positive for labour

Is it that many? That's a bit disappointing, that means c.700k didn't vote, pretty much the same as last election.

30% dont vote, which is a large percentage, they have done surveys, biggest reason is cant get to or no time to vote, and now with earlier voting i cant find that as a valid reason anymore

The second biggest reason is a lack of interest in voting for 27% of non-voters, up from 21% in 2011. The biggest drivers of this result are ‘can't be bothered with politics or politicians’ at 9%, ‘can't be bothered voting’ at 8%, and ‘makes no difference who the government is’ at 6%.

We had to cajole our 21 year old for weeks to vote. No idea which favour he chose as we didn’t sit down and mess with his head like others apparently do with their children. If other young ones are as difficult to motivate, good luck ever getting a youth quake.

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If Maori had kept 7 seats then National has a 4th term no issue.....but they havent.

Overseas ownership ban is now a done deal, immigration tap is shut off, and state house building boost (alternative at lower end) are all now reality. Capital gains rocket booster just shut down. If you havent reached escape velocity for your debt payload gravity is about to take control.

Consider if Nat do not approve this...and you have a big pile of tax changes on top of that....very interesting couple of weeks while new govt is formed. Specials historically favour left/green which has little upside for National.

Has maori torpedoed the ponzi...?

If WP forms a coalition of the clueless with Labour and the Greens we will see the beginning of the end for small political parties and NZ First itself would be obliterated, in 20/20, as light Blue voters like my parents move back to National (they are upset at a Bolger decision which is why they vote WP, and they like the Goldcard, that’s how fickle some of WPs voters are). Perversely, I’d like to see it happen. I don’t want Adern to have time to learn how to lead in a safe environment. Let her deal with WP and the Greens right now. I want the loopy types to get power hungry and create a circus. I think we have some economic headwinds coming that will tar the parties in power.

WP Make my day. Let your ego get to you and create a coalition of the clueless that will allow National time to get a grip on power that will see me well into retirement age. Despite all of the MMP calculations, 46% of voters had enough sense to vote in one bloc and they will voice their thoughts one way or another. Wow this is exciting. Bring it on.

I am wondering if he will go with whoever's wings he can clip the most. That would be the Nats, if he can get immigration much reduced and if he can get banning foreign buyers across the line.

I am fairly pleased with the election result.
Even if Winnie goes with the Nats, he will reign in their arrogance and religious belief in neo-liberalism

So nothing has really changed if you look at the numbers. Labour just grabbed the Maori seats and a few Greens seats and national lost a couple of percent to NZF and the others. Looks like a National NZF coalition to me without the need for ACT. Had National got just a few more percent they could have gone it alone. You can jump up a down all you like but basically half the country voted National.

That's an interesting one to factor in, would David Seymour keep supporting National if they push him aside? He's not hidden his dislike of Winnie, There are some areas of disagreement in Nat/ACT marriage, assisted dying being the major one.

Act should fold back into National for 2020. I thought Seymour debated well and has more to contribute. WP will be gone in 2020, so no problems there and a flush out of the more decrepit seniors like Smith will make room for him. I enjoyed listening to Marama Fox as well, albeit that voice is now gone.

Final tally after special vote predctied is Labour + Green 54 seats and National 56 seats and in worst scenario 53 seats and 57 seats.

In true sense Winston Peter is the King Maker. It is upto him to go for change or same old government who have lost the majority.

if they get to 54 i expect nz first will go with labour greens, remember it was BE that got WP thrown out of the national party and WP has a long memory.
if only 53 he will bite the bullet and go with national

WP may still go with Labour even with 52 if he wants to and will fi d reasons to justify as also Labour policy more suits his core policy on immigration and foeign buyer.

Can justify that in MMP people have voted for change by giving majority to opposistion.

Winston won't be interested in the Greens.

Virtually a done deal between Winston and National. Winston will be in his comfort zone with the Nats.

Not ideal for National - but better than the alternative.

Bill English will be happy enough - and what a stellar performance from him during the last fortnight of the campaign. Nobody could doubt that.

Winnie lost his beloved electorate seat ( Northland ) to the Gnat's Matt King !

... as a very proud man , he will not be looking kindly upon Wild Bill's mob anytime soon ...

He won't mind the Greens , if they're shunted to the edge of Labour's plate ... so he can snuggle up to the red meat in the centre ...

congrats to chloe for making the parliament at 23, i enjoyed her debating with david Seymour and like all youth the rolling of the eyes, the hmmph, and calling him out as a liar and stop talking BS.
it was refreshing not watching two liars trying to outdo each other whilst keeping the straightest face and not showing any emotion like most political debates

I think she has a brilliant future in politics, eloquent, passionate and principled.

Just what the Beehive needs.Another MP with no real life experience telling real peopple whats best for them.

Even worse, she’s likely giving up her youth to the negativity of being in opposition.

I think the real winners in this election were small donors - individuals, many of whom donated across more than one of the opposition parties who won the majority on the night.

They collectively flipped the finger at the big money end of town.

I'm very proud about that.

Blue Meanie, shall we meet up and have that beer ?

Abolish MMP, over 2 million Kiwis voted, now 1 man decides who will govern, that's not democracy

When the majority of voters want a change in government (more than 46%), I'd suggest this democracy is working perfectly.

That assumes that all NZ First voters wanted a change to Labour/Greens. You’re deluded if you think that.

Greon_mamba - I really disagree with that assumption, the election strongly suggests that the majority in fact didn't want a change as many were suggesting would happen in a tidal wave. Do you think that everyone that voted for say NZ First wanted to change the Govt ? I know a few work mates who were voting for NZF because they wanted him to have a coalition with National but one where immigration is forced lower.

If you are a voter wanting guaranteed change there was only two parties where that was going to happen, Labour and the Greens, but those two together fell well short of even National's vote alone. There could still be a left coalition including NZF but there will be many NZF voters who will be very disappointed with the result, which polling also shows of NZF voters preferences. The majority did not vote for change after 9 yrs which is highly unusual and a credit to the way the economy has been run through some pretty tough times globally and at home.

The Nats had the legacy of some dry powder left by labour when they did not run this country at full tilt economically, rightly or wrongly. Suggesting it was the Nats that pulled us through the GFC would be completely wrong as all they did was dipping into the ample reserves/capacity left by the previous government.

Now after 9 years of focusing on only making money, and neglecting everything else, its time for a re-balance, and that's what most voters want, as not voting for national, is a vote for change.

Look at the revenue and expenses during the last Labour Government period. It’s like your child earning his/her first pay and glowing with pride about not spending it all in the first week. Labour governed over a period so ebullient that the GFC had to happen. Luck was on their side that they didn’t have to manage through a GFC, strings of earthquakes and a dairy downturn.

And god help us when the next one hits.
You can all but guarantee that debt will skyrocket, S&P will downgrade us, and the Cullen fund will be pillaged.

It will kill New Zealand.
All you people that think National can do no bad will learn the importance of putting money away for a rainy day.

Yeah but fortunately we have had a dynamic rock star economy for the past 9 years and not gorged ourselves on debt..... oh!

We've got assets that we can s......oh!

Fortunately our economy based on selling houses to each other and immigration is remarkably resilient and won't be affected by a global... oh!

Abolish MMP, we voted for National or Labour + Greens policies, now these policies will fly out the window in a compromise to form a government

Don’t stress. Play the long game. It’s better that WP is destroyed and the public sees what a coalition of the clueless does when in power. This is like watching your enemy marry your crazy cousin.

If I was BE I would publish exactly what WP asked for and then work on the right leaning members in NZ First for a waka jump. Cut the old goat off at the knees when he’s most vulnerable.

History does show that this can and indeed does happen. He will remember it happening, and perhaps this will sway his option to turn left rather than embrace that risk again. NZF LAB and GRN alliance does look like one of the least preferred options from this election but lets see what happens.

Immigration slowdown and overseas owner ban are probably the only two sure things at this point. Tax changes....watch this space.

Well done Bill English - got the job done. Didn't think he had it in him.

Labour again were woeful in their campaign delivery and messaging.
Greens need to focus more on environmentalism and actually live up to their name.
NZ First just keeps giving for Winston. I suspect with his conservative electorate he will go with National.

Bad night for the minor parties with discretionary votes being hoovered up by the major parties tight race.